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What he missed to mention is that Iran gave 1 week time to Israel to prepare. Which means they wanted Israel to use its defence. They wanted to make a point , which they have made

Nevatim was defended by the world’s most advanced integrated anti-missile defense shield which incorporated Arrow 2, David’s Sling, THAAD, and Patriot 3 with the AN/TPY-2 X-band surveillance and targeting radar. You ignore the fact that this system was designed to exclusively defend against the Iranian medium-range ballistic missile threat. And yet…5-7 missiles hit Nevatim. The Israelis have acknowledged 2 runways and three warehouse structures hit. Not a knockout blow-it wasn’t intended as such. But any BDA expert would note that the point of impact was center mass, a clear indication of precision guidance. 5-7 missiles hit the world’s most heavily defended location, defeating an integrated ABM defense that was custom built to defeat the missiles it failed to shoot down. The point of this exercise is to note that if Iran had send 30 missiles at Nevatim, the base would be inoperable. Israel knows this. So does the U.S. Army. Which is why Iran has achieved strategic deterrence over Israel. Which was the whole point of the operation.

Foils? No, Iran had announced that they were going to fire missiles between such and such time and revealed the targets as well. And roughly a third of those projectiles were downed by US and UK, not Israel. Keep yourself informed, Gupta.

I wish you listen to the analysis by Scot Reiter .He had explained very clearly how Iran has successfully penetrated worlds most impenetrable air defense jointly run by Isreal and America.

This is not foiling. Even if Israel succeeded in stopping those missiles, the cost of defense is more than 1.2 billion dollars.

Maybe this news could've been skipped this early after the incident,... The analysis is very off .... Iran didn't lose, they had no plan to win they had made it known that they were attacking as a response to Israel bombing their consulate. Iran also made an official comment saying this was a one-time response for that attack and will not escalate and so should the US too .... This was just a message with careful planning to not cause any significant damage to Israel

Everyone was made scared of the black Ghost, but when the Ghost was seen, it was not that dark and scary

It costed $1.3b to intercept those missiles and 7 went through its a win for Iran

Thankyou shekar sir for bringing what is happening in the middleeast. Especially on israel and iran conflict.

It has been hilarious to see all the people online acting like Iran achieved a great victory when almost all of their projectiles were intercepted

Each of those Iranian drones was worth about $20,000. The Israelis used missiles that cost over $1 million to shoot those down. Also they were meant to be shot down. Some missiles did make it through.

Remember that, the elements of surprise was not there. It will not be like that always.

Future military conflict will no involve Armies. It would involve missiles, drones and modern tech

Nice line at last to the world Risk avoidance the best strategy

The war is AGAINST FREE HUMANITY! NOT BETWEEN countries!

I disagree it was not a win for the systems . 3-4 countries airborned their jets to down kamakazi drones. Also iran proved it could hit a country with precision 1000 kms away from them. In a surprise scenario iran can cause much harm to israel.

Dear Shekhar ji, if possible, please try to upload the video by 8 PM🙏

Thank you for the excellent analysis and looking at all sides

The purpose of the downed drones was to determine the type of defensive weapons used & their locations

The U.S. has an advanced AN/TPY-2 X-band radar stationed at Har Qeren, in the Negev desert. Its mission is to detect Iranian missile launches, and pass targeting data to Israeli Arrow and David’s Sling and U.S. THAAD ABM batteries deployed to protect sensitive Israeli sites, including Dimona and the Nevatim and Ramon air bases. Iranian missiles struck both Nevatim and Ramon air bases. The best surveillance radar in the world, working in concert with the most sophisticated anti-missile defenses in the world, were impotent in the face of the Iranian attack. For all those trying to spin yesterday’s events as an Israeli victory, chew on that fact: The best missile defense system in the world could not protect the sites they were tasked with protecting from attacks by Iranian missiles. Who has deterrence supremacy? It ain’t Israel.

Iran gave the disclaimer before 5 hours, with the place as well and us Britain and others had to move their ships and equipment to shoot down the drone , not to mention the billions it took them to counter that , Iran’s did attempt to cause damage, it’s a simple message

Drones were pawns, as in a chess game. Every missile hit its target.

Very very well articulated explanation.

Large amount of our Hosiery and garments export are taken away by Bangladesh and Vietnam in last few years , causing big jolt to industry and job . Please share a deep analysis of it

Knowledge is good. Wisdom is the best.

Kinetic diplomacy at it's finest.

You need a complete re-education on military strategy and to keep in mind that truth is the first casulaty of war. Remember you announced that the Russians had lost the Ukraine war when it was just starting.

Missing you for Long..

I think you are more cluttered than cutting the clutter. Iranian attack was a message to Israel. It didn't intend to do much damage. Your analysis is that Israeli air defense succeeded. Please remember that Israeli air defense failed horrible just on Hamas' attack.

What’s the difference between opinion and analysis?

The analysis based on the fact that the number of missiles used, thst failed to hit target, fails to state that the large number of drones used was calculated not to hit target, but to establish the positions of air defence systems and, their reaction times and the distance to wipe out targets ie the drones provided targets to expedite the deployment of the air defence and incapacitate the available anti ballistic air defence capability before any real missiles were timed to arrive. Using old ballistic missile it achieved that goal. It was also a theatre to showcase that even the old missles could reach Israel. The more complex missles set to target the two targets in Israel evidently reached their targets. Also a possible third target outside of Israel was reached. The theatre was a display of capability and warning of capability and deterrence. It was a also real life rehearsal of sorts. It was not a miltary strike, nor was it a kill strike. It was the use of the military to convey a message of intent. . That was achieved. USA understood the message of peace conveyed by the message. USA and it's western allies were put on notice and were prepared to see their system tested. Iran demonstrated that it could nullify Israeli air defence, and hit the targets it selects. Also it signalled that it could and would target the strait of Hormuz and cause economic disaster if it so wishes, but that Iran like all other countries has always reigned in it military capabilty because Iran , too wants peace and prosperity to come to the region. Israel however continues its rogue attacks on all surrounding countries and continues to destabilise the region. If Israel were to reign in its insatiable appetite for choas and domince in the region, Iran would not have to fight back. But israel declared war on Iran by destroying its Embassy. Israel obviously thinks its not accountable to International law. Iran had to re-establish boundaries and deterrence. This was achieved by Iran's action. Killing none, but stating clearly that it can hit back, should Iran ever be attacked again. USA told israel to accept it as a win, since it came out if the skirmish without anyone being killed.,and that its illusion of having an effective Air defence capability remains intact. Furthermore USA not going to provide Israel with cover should Israel misbehave. Netanyahu played Biden. Biden did his part to support Israel butbif Israel misbehaves it in its own because Bide is n also responsible for the international perceptions of the USA actions in this genocide, Biden and the USA given more positive cover because of how Iran managed the crisis retaliation, than the international condemnation Bidens receives due to his ongoing weapon support to Israel. It dents Bidens re-election bid. But Netanyahu thinks he will get more support from Trump, and plays the two off against each other by running AIPAC and the Zionist media control of American politics. Biden should be thankful to Iran for, giving him a face saving operation to manage. Netanyahu making Bidens reelection almost impossible. Netanyahu an egomaniac thinking only of himself at this time, contiues to lash out, since he has been cornered by his and Israeli's genocidal rage at Palestinians..

Dont Know this man name but i always listen him carefully and with interest.. Love from Pakistan

Just 😂watch abhijit view 😢 but watching again for my shekar sir 😊

Sir there is no mention about hypersonic missile used by iran in your lecture The defeat and win game lies weather these missiles detected or strike targets?????

Shekhar ji i was hoping that you would use your favorite phrase “Noora Kushti “ Everyone knew what’s coming and when. Everyone was pleasing their audiences. Full on Noora kushti 😅

Iran and US in $6bn deal Published18 September 2023 "I opened a tab in a bar for free drinks. However, anyone who causes any damages-for example, dropping rocket scraps on rooftops-will need to cover the costs from the tab at this bar."

Mr Gupta, Iran has given the question paper a week ago, and israel failed the exam, Iran fired some stuff lying around for long time in dump yard and Israel still left some attack them even with the help of US,UK,Jordan and France with state of art equipments and you keep saying Iran failed.

Rogoway seems to have missed the point of the tech imbalance. Drone saturation is easier to achieve rather than Iron Dome/Patriot. And this was only one night. A little more introspection may be prudent.

Isreal lost because no country dared attack for fear of USA and its allies but now that precedence has been broken.The macho but maglomaniac State is now scared to death. Many would live the country and many would get depression knowing there security is not assured even with Nato

can Isarel intercept if Iran uses hypersonic missiles,?

Thanks!

I totally disagree with your statement that "Militarily Iran Failed". It was by design made to fail by Iran. This was only meant as a demonstration that Iran will retaliate if attacked and has the capability to reach it's attackers. The reason why the percentage of hit rate is low is because of several reasons, 1) They mostly used inexpensive and simplest of weapons. But to bring them down it's prohibitively more expensive. Thereby making a dent in the pockets of the targets. 2) Iran gave prior warning before attacking to make it possible for Israel and it's allies to be ready to intercept their attack, which would indicate that Iran only wanted to show here a proof of concept which it did achieve. 3) Iran firing the drones were also for the reason, one to give Israel and allies enough time to prepare to evacuate and intercept. 4) Iran hit the targets that it wanted to hit by utilising multiple methods, one by deploying decoy to confuse missile interruption system another by activating boosters thereby not not giving enough time to intercept the missiles. Again, the retaliatory attack by Iran was well calculated and executed perfectly to send a message without causing any actual destruction which will deviate the focus from Gaza (Which Iran had already said before attacking that it will not take away focus from Gaza) and also result in further escalation and spill of war in the middle East. The reason why Iran has won this military exercise is clearly understandable from the comments of Little Sunak and Gen o Side Biden where in they are clearly asking for cool head and de escalation of the situation, knowing well that their bullying tactics will not work with Iran. Thanks for the context though.

Good analysis

I have a simple question. Has there ever been a ONE SINGLE time in history when Israel did not strike back in a quadrupling manner?

I have heard that the cost in ordinance, to the U.S., Israel and others, such as Jordan, to curtail the mostly low tech Iranian drones and missiles was approximately $2 billion USD. Iran has many much more sophisticated missiles, including hypersonic weapons. Israel and its allies learned that a war with Iran, Iraq and Lebanon will be prohibitively expensive., in dollars and destruction. A coordinated simultaneous attack, of tens of thousands of missiles, lead by Iran would be a total disaster for Israel, as it would overwhelm Israeli defenses. This incident was not a serious attack by Iran.

1.2-1.3 billion dollars spent. That's a loss to the taxpayers. And totally unsustainable over even the short term.

A nuclear warhead capable missile, even if intercepted, would have massive catastrophic damage on the ground, due to fallout.

Thanks

This episode didn't clear the clutter :/

Only You Shekar can make & twist win and success as draw or even as far as to label it as failure or loss. In todays world offense is also form of defence, everything is defence..

Missiles are not cheap either. Iran too has limited resources. These are not cheap unguided rockets.

Iranian general claimed it hit the 2 military bases it wanted to hit. No one thinks those slow moving cheap drones would have been an issue other than overwhelming the system.

Best strategy always is diplomacy and not the war.

As I read somewhere, the Israeli defense system will not necessarily intercept all incoming unless they are directed to a valuable asset. Secondly the Israeli exponential retaliation is bound to happen otherwise every Jubair/Dhruv/RanaA assumes Israel is vulnerable & can be hit….

Hello Shekhar Let me put few words 1. All the missiles , rockets and projectiles have chemicals as propellant hence all of them have a specific shelf life beyond which they are absolutely not effective at all. 2. Iran firing few Ballistic msls not reaching tagts is a result of that only. 3. The embargo in place by West and US , the effect can be seen now. 4. A missiles is reqd to be fired well before it's shelf life. See how US fires few missiles when nearing end of its shelf life

Iranians only tested... This is success from Iranian

There is a new military power in the Middle East, the difference is that this Military power is not a Bulley. Hope that this finally bring some normality in the area.

If no damage was caused why israelis are so rattled. They talking about taking revenge ?

Thanks you for all your content. I’ve been following The Print since 2018. Really appreciate the global perspective and unhyphenated journalism. I must add, the subscription enrollment is a bit painful for international viewers. As for the video, I wanted to post my first ever comment!! i believe you already know this. This was probably the most telegraphed counter attack in my recollection. I would have expected you touch upon this fact more so than towing the publicized American line. I haven’t seen a more responsible big power response. Iran had no option but to retaliate Israel’s aggression in Syria. Yet, it did not want to escalate. The European powers, UAE & US (via Swiss consulate operations) were given enough information about the attack. The nature of the weapons and some leaks say even the trajectories (don’t know that for sure) were made available to ensure there was little real damage done. This is one of the most brilliant military/diplomatic move I’ve seen in a long time. No country intent on making a real destruction would have sent 185 drones that take 4 hours to reach with Iranian media broadcasting the attack at launch time! Sounds almost ridiculous. I think Iran did a great job to send a message. Now, will Israel get the message. I doubt. I think the European countries and US know exactly what Iran wanted to signal. Hence the restraint attitude. I have nothing in favor or against Israel or Palestine, however it does feel to me that the western countries’ last colony of Israel and their supremacist/racist ideals against people of other faith and colors is on full display in the Middle Eastern conflict. Although, every nation must act in its own interest and take bets on who they feel might end victorious.

Excellent explanation

Iran is 5,000 years old civilization and still the most civilized nation in league of nation.

It showed that israel defense is not 100 percent impenetrable. They are still vulnerable. Iran proved that.

As always, well researched and informative

As per Abhijit Iyer Mitra's twitter post, the drone atrack cost Iran only about $200 million while Israel repelled it at the cost of $1.2 billion. The Hamas attack was a rare blinking of the eye by Israel but otherwise it takes its security very seriously. It will neither buckle under international pressure nor would its political class sanction a hasty unplanned response to play to the galleries and rile empty "chest thumping". The Israeli response would be a sight to behold.

331 missiles or drones,am asking is this headline correct

Now if you remember : their was attack on oil facility in Saudi A. hitting oil store-age tanks. precise targets: why! distance was short? or no western support. Here Iran telegraph to USA 72 hours advance notice? or technical disadvantages in reaching targets.

'China is providing Russia and Iran with cruise missile and drone engines and machine tools for ballistic missiles' - Financial Times

Somewhere I read the quantity of drones and missiles was 350+

It is easy to rush to the conclusion - and many have - that the attack was a massive failure given the near-perfect rate of interceptions of Iranian drones and missiles by Israel’s layered missile defence architecture. Had Iran’s intent been to hurt Israel, it wouldn’t have violated a core principle of military operations - the element of surprise. But it did. It telegraphed its intentions to Washington and several Arab and European capitals, and assured them that its strike would be relatively limited.

Less information more clutter!

Israel is the winner until Guptaji shakes entire Iran 😂😂

What happened to Airbase

Now it remains to be seen how successfully Iran will repel the Israeli counterattack when it comes.

Lots of Very low cost motor cycle engine drone with low speed, loud sound was pioneered by a few real one.

Words like think, maybe, possibly, don't cut the clutter but these words add to the clutter. Ten minutes is maximum which can be used to analyse how Iran fared in the response. Brevity as they say is the soul of the wit. Declaring Iran as failing in its response is too immature and too early. The intent was there. The airspace was cleared. The neighbouring states were warned prior to the action and the message was conveyed. Tubthumping comes to mind: I get knocked down, but I get up again You are never gonna keep me down I get knocked down, but I get up again You are never gonna keep me down I get knocked down, but I get up again

1.Try to reduce too lengthy sentences. Viewers find difficult to connect and understand. So reduce cramming. 2. Too much unnecessary movements of your hands disturb concentration , disturb viewing of lip movement ,

Request to Shekhar Gupta sir, please upload the video at least by 10 PM everyday.

Israel is in a strategic restraint mode.

Number for Iran is $ 200+ million with ballistic and other missiles not 40

Be ready to cry save Iran

Iranian missiles fuss 😨 Israel: " Aab tera kya hoga kalia" 😎

9 Mesile hits Ramon Air base, Daniel Hagari Said One Airbase and One Airport has been closed 😊 Since Iran launched attack I flooring every update all across the world.

How does India's missile defence system compare to Israel's? Is there much value in conventional aircraft based air force based on the hit rates on fighter jets in Ukraine and minimal use of the same being applied in Israel defence.

Israel did make use of their latest laser weapon called iron shield in the latest attack to take down two missiles so in the future their will be more usage of non conventional weapons like lasers for the purpose of defence

Turkey informed Nato members. Thus Israel was informed. This is for showing concern by Iran.

The cost-benefit analysis may make sense in business but not in a war. It does not matter if the incoming threat is costing just a few thousand dollars, and you have to counter it with a million-dollar missile. It is the potential damage it can cause and the weapon you have at your disposal counter it. This is like a leader should not be protected by spending huge sums of money since the bullet that can cause harm costs a dollar or two. Hopefully, the defense ministers in charge are not bean counters. Also, Iran may wanted to show that there is a red line, but I am sure they did not launch 300 weapons to injure a girl. They surely expected to create more havoc but did not succeed luckily for them as Israel would wreaked hell in retaliation. Coming to the low-cost drones, this is a part of the never-ending offensive vs defensive weapons cycle that has been going on forever. The offensive weapon always has an advantage as it comes first (otherwise where is the need to develop a counter?) and destruction is always cheaper than construction. So, drones have the upper hand now, but they have less of that compared to what was the situation two years ago as many countermeasures have been developed. Once cheap counters like microwave or laser weapons are developed, they will not have this advantage and that is not far away. Also don't forget that drones are very cheap but also very vulnerable. They might have been successful in the Ukraine war (at least initially) due to the lack of counters or incompetence but as one can see now, none penetrated the defense shield.

Iran is also seeking to identify which countries aligning themselves indefence of Israel. Apparently Jordan and Saudi have indeed decided to support Israel by shooting the drones. This finding will help to shape the conflict.

. You do not need to repeat the same sentence 3 times. It just wastes every body's time. Just an observation. Thanks ❤

It won't get uglier because israel will not try that action any time soon. Israel knew that iran would have done what they did. Its not a surprise.

Iran don't want direct war with Israel , but showed iran can do by 7 successful hit in navtim air base ،how can a operational air base can't be protective

Analysis not Professional. Biased. Iran was just sending a message .It never intended the attack to ɓe offensive.

Its all about the cost, if you are using a $500k missile to shoot down a $100k drone that can be manufactured with extremely limited resources, whos the one exactly losing? The Iranians made their point, not quality, just quantity is enough sometimes.

Why not an interview of the PM by you? Would be a very interesting one.

They had 3 days notice, so they had all the time in the world plan distroy the missles.

Which air defense system India have to protect from China and Pak

This BJP appointed bania is either not keeping track of news or outright lying as his dictated brief from RSS headquarters. Iran Hypersonic missiles DID HIT NEVATIM AIR BASE OF ZIONIST ISRAHELL. It is only 16 km away from supposedly most secure DIMONA NUCLEAR ARSENAL OF ISRAHELL. What's intercepted was Shahid drones , which are slow. And were deliberated used to draw in firepower. What an expert ......

Thanks foor ur comedic analysis

Israel will not let it go. Period

In today's age of instantaneous verbal and video communication why did irgc operational commanders had to operate from Syria makes no sense. Why did they have to take undue risk.