Chaos in the Climate Casino
Переглядів 23,276
Місяць томуThe Climate Emergency Forum welcomes Dr. Eliot Jacobson, a retired professor turned climate researcher. The discussion delves into the complexities of the 1.5-degree IPCC global average temperature goal.
This video was recorded on March 4th, 2024, and published on March 24th, 2024.
In the detailed dialog provided, Dr. Eliot Jacobson, a retired professor turned climate researcher, delves into the complexities of the 1.5-degree IPCC global average temperature goal and the challenges in accurately measuring temperature anomalies above the pre-industrial baseline. He criticizes the varying methods used by different sources to calculate these anomalies and highlights discrepancies in reporting, emphasizing the need for a more standardized approach to convey this crucial information.
Furthermore, Dr. Jacobson discusses his own analysis based on Copernicus data, revealing a higher rate of warming at 0.3 degrees Celsius per decade compared to previous estimates. This leads him to assert that the current temperature anomaly is around 1.38 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial baseline, indicating a faster pace of warming than commonly acknowledged. He predicts that at this rate, the world is likely to surpass the 1.5-degree goal by 2028, highlighting the urgency of addressing climate change.
The discussion also extends to how insurance companies are grappling with escalating risks due to abrupt weather changes, hinting at broader societal implications and challenges posed by a rapidly changing climate landscape.
Links:
- Advanced Advantage Play
www.amazon.com/Advanced-Advan...
- The Blackjack Zone
www.amazon.ca/Blackjack-Zone-...
- July 2023 sees multiple global temperature records broken
climate.copernicus.eu/july-20...
- Paris Agreement
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_A...
- Global Warming in the Pipeline and Earth's Energy Imbalance (CEF Video)
• Global Warming in the ...
- Copenhagen Accord
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Copenha...
- United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
unfccc.int/resource/docs/conv...
- No 1.5 Without Intervention (CEF Video)
• No 1.5 Without Interve...
- Explaining Extreme Weather Events from a Climate Perspective
www.ametsoc.org/index.cfm/ams...
- Texas on Fire (CEF Video)
• Texas on Fire
- International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interna...
- Monitoring the ocean heat content change and the Earth energy imbalance from space altimetry and space gravimetry
essd.copernicus.org/articles/...
- Contemporary Casino Table Game Design
www.amazon.com/Contemporary-C...
- Climate Confusion
skepticalscience.com/Climate_...
Special Guest:
Dr. Eliot Jacobson - is a retired professor of mathematics, computer science, as well as a casino industry consultant. He has authored four books, three on casino games and one poetry book. Since retiring in 2017, he has become well known in the climate world as a climate researcher appearing recently on CNN, as well as many climate oriented programs with a large number of followers on Twitter.
Regular Panelists:
Dr. Peter Carter - MD, Expert IPCC Reviewer and the director of the Climate Emergency Institute
Paul Beckwith - Climate Systems Scientist. Professor at the University of Ottawa's Paleoclimatology Laboratory as well as at Carleton University
Panelist & Video Production:
Charles Gregoire - Electrical Engineer, Webmaster and IT prime for FacingFuture.Earth & the Climate Emergency Forum; Climate Reality Leader
Video Production:
Heidi Brault - Video production and website assistant, Organizer and convener, Metadata technician, COP team lead for the Climate Emergency Forum and Facing Future; BA (Psychology); Climate Reality Leader
Our Website:
climateemergencyforum.org/
Attributions:
Background Music:
- Title: Through the City II
- Author: Crowander
- Source: Free Music Archive
- License: CC BY-NC 4.0
Image and Video: climateemergencyforum.org/ass...
#climatescience #climatecrisis #climateresearch
@kirkha100 Місяць тому
When a person has a terminal illness, it is a profound wrong for the doctor to lie and say, “Oh, you’re gonna be fine.” It denies to patient’s need to have their grief, heal their relationships, assess and make peace with their lives, including….finding gratitude for the life they have lived.
@thunderstorm6630 Місяць тому
true, I hear Guy McPhersons Words shining through
@kirkha100 Місяць тому
@@thunderstorm6630I don’t follow McPherson. Left Nature Bats Last years ago after he blew up a several relationships unnecessarily, in my opinion.
@user-hz6vm7xh8m Місяць тому
The patient doesn't want to hear it.
@kirkha100 Місяць тому
@@user-hz6vm7xh8mIn this case, I agree with you.
@kirkha100 Місяць тому
@@thunderstorm6630 Haven’t followed him for years.
@lyndonbarsten393 Місяць тому
I thought the "birthday" was going to be the 200th anniversary of Joseph Fourier stating that CO2 warms the planet.
@edtremblay6694 Місяць тому
I think Eunice Foote may have discovered Carbon dioxide traps the earths heat.
@mrrecluse7002 Місяць тому
How refreshing it is to behold such honesty, on this grim subject. Thanks for the total absence of sugarcoating At least for the entirety of the first half! I have to return later for the remainder.
@ClimateEmergencyForum Місяць тому
Glad you enjoyed it!
@jeanjacquesdessalines1425 Місяць тому
Bravo à vous et merci beaucoup.
@j.eanderson1262 Місяць тому
@@ClimateEmergencyForum new to your channel. We can thank the government powers that be for much of our climate now. Weathermodificationhistory.com may be of great interest to you. #CirrusCloudsMatter #cirruscloudsmatter
@BombusMonticola Місяць тому
Very glad you had my friend (I wish he was) and defender of life on... Dr Eliot Jacobson. Well done Eliot.
@heidibrault1313 Місяць тому
He was a great guest.
@DanA-nl5uo Місяць тому
The talk at the beginning of this video about a constant temperature raise per decade fails to understand the basic fact this is a non linear problem. The rate of change is x^n not x+n.
@forcingclimateinfo7014 Місяць тому
Best comment in this field. Peace!
@phrenologisto Місяць тому
This is why I use people as my indicator, now. Whenever someone notes there's a difference from what they remember, I ask them when that memory is from. It seems universal that we're able to notice year over year change, now, which means we're heading into month-to-month, which bleeds into a constant, accelerating catastrophe
@nsbd90now Місяць тому
"We are in the middle of the first phase of total chaos." You forgot the obligatory "faster than expected".
@A3Kr0n Місяць тому
And he's supposed to tell us what we need to do to keep going as usual.
@larry785 Місяць тому
Mother Nature tells Climate Change: "Hold my Beer"
@proudchristian77 13 днів тому
He says beware of strong drink 🍸 ! 💒💝
@jimsigrist5506 Місяць тому
I personally respect "doomers" for their brutal honesty.
@grnl4 Місяць тому
An accelerating rate of increase implies an out-of-control runaway train type of situation.
@Frosty294492 Місяць тому
Currently I see two types of people described like this. You are tied to a railroad track with no hope of freeing yourself and you can hear the train coming. One type of person will turn around to see how close the train is and the other will not. Unfortunately the latter is the prevalence. Those with good news will always be preferred over bad news even if the bad news is true and the good news false.
@philwilson609 Місяць тому
You can always hope that the brakeman will save you, but once you know that the company has ordered all train employees to just run people down because stopping cuts into profits - then hope disappears. Climate is a function of capitalism and that is why it's hopeless.
@bobdooly3706 14 днів тому
GLOBAL WARMING IS GOOD NEWS IF YOU RESIDE IN SIBERIA. ❤
@danascully5960 Місяць тому
when can we collectively accept our fate like the characterrrs in the final scene of "don''t look up?" and move on to the important things/people
@phrenologisto Місяць тому
That's what I've been wondering for years. When do we put all this meddling down and just enjoy the time we have left, ideally and justifiably funded by the wealth that ensured our extinction. I just want a few months as a human where the people I love understand why I've been avoiding planes, cars, and burning fuel more generally.
@bgebbq314 Місяць тому
Best CEF episode yet, excellent panel of experts
@heidibrault1313 Місяць тому
Thank you so much for your support!
@earthsystem Місяць тому
There have been so many best episodes - I cannot thank you enough for the *_straightforward science and context_* you always gift us with.
@heidibrault1313 Місяць тому
@@earthsystemThank you - much appreciated!
@christinearmington Місяць тому
Agreed 👍
@sumiland6445 Місяць тому
We live in Oklahoma USA and we just had the warmest winter ever. It also appears that Oklahoma is the eye of a weather pattern for the North American continent. Very strange weather.
@sumiland6445 Місяць тому
Has anyone had another Vertical Atmospheric River Rapids besides Greenland?
@mrs.seaturtle66allen78 18 годин тому
Here in Montana we just had 30 days of below zero and the coldest March on record.
@forcingclimateinfo7014 Місяць тому
I am with Peter here!, why not go with the ocean, the ocean is the master of earth climate change. Thanks!!
@GrandmaBev64 Місяць тому
I just watched someone sinking ships near Iraq and Yemen. What is testing all these nuclear weapons, computer storage facilities, oil spills and platforms, deep sea dredging, and huge ships being bombed and sunk, going to do to the ocean? It can't be good.
@TheCompleteGuitarist Місяць тому
The Sun. No sun, no heat. Tell me I am wrong.
@BufordTGleason Місяць тому
The problem we are running into trying to forecast this stuff in my untutored opinion is that the numbers are changing so fast that the conditions on the ground can’t keep up and therefore Paleo climatic data has limited use even in abrupt changes
@EmeraldView Місяць тому
I don't think even the house wins in this casino.
@amberazurescale5617 Місяць тому
I celebrate Eliot Jacobson for his uncompromised, mercyless proclamation of the predicament humans impose onto Earth. Compared to him, people like Paul and Peter appear as if they were still in the "bargaining" phase of grief, while Eliot not only has accepted, but looks right in the face of the storm.
@jamestiburon443 Місяць тому
We are already at 2.3 above with methane factored in.
@pokemon42jodeldodel97 Місяць тому
How do you get there? I'm serious. I am between 1.98 and 2.08
@hugohabicht9957 Місяць тому
@@pokemon42jodeldodel97No it is exactly 1.9876
@michaelgarcia2203 Місяць тому
We're probably above 2degrees C, if you calculate from the true baseline, of 1750.
@ecocentrichomestead6783 Місяць тому
"As long as humans have been around" is a key point. I started watching "Climate: A Movie" this morning. It's a climate change is nothing to worry about video. One of the arguments was that the earth was much warmer, CO2 much higher and life more abundant during the dinosaur time. What is missed is the the dinosaur species didn't recover because the earth never did return to the temperatures that existed when they roamed. The cooler temperatures are more friendly to warm blooded mammals, hence the reason humans could evolve into existence. Regardless of how long in takes, if the earth returns to the dinosaur temperatures, humans go extinct or are pushed to the poles.
@forcingclimateinfo7014 Місяць тому
56 million years ago earth was not at all like now, eat that banana lol
@Corrie-fd9ww Місяць тому
Our species is great at cognitive fogginess that warps and distorts any facts so they can fit whatever story we like or believe. We are masters of the false equivalency too! Comparing and contrasting things that have so much more depth and nuance and so can’t be accurately compared, that’s what social media is built on these days.
@earthsystem Місяць тому
IMO "social" media energizes emotional feelings, and dulls logical consideration of facts and consequence. Social behavior ~== herd instinct.
@richardjarrell3585 Місяць тому
I too made the mistake of watching that film. “Lies, damned lies, and statistics.” It’s true that there are people making profits from perceived alleviations of the threats, but that doesn’t invalidate the reality of the threat.
@brianwheeldon4643 Місяць тому
ecocentrichomestead6783 Hi, it's not the temperature, it's the rate of change that's the problem. Species are unable to move location and/or to adapt in such a short time frame as we humans are creating by our biogeoengineering of the planet on timescales of decades not millenia.
@LarryCleveland Місяць тому
Too late for co2 removal.
@glennsomers8577 Місяць тому
The percentage of CO2 in the atmosphere is 0.04%. It's went up by 0.01% over the last 30 years. Oh, guess what, the earth as a result is now 20% greener. Wow. What a horrible thing that is. I can not believe that people are actually buying into them demonizing a vital element of human life. Carbon Capture. lol. You know that if the percentage of CO2 falls below 0.02% plant life begins to die. And guess what happens then people? This is the biggest con job in human history. Of course if you can get people to wear useless masks, follow arrows and stand on dots, I guess you can make them believe anything.
@k.c.sunshine1934 Місяць тому
I'm wondering if any scientist has done a best-fit exponential curve model for the long term temperature actuals instead of the "linear model" that is currently being discussed? I would love to hear the parameters if available.
@charlesvt2010 Місяць тому
Thanks to you all , myself living in West Virginia is my safe spot
@heidibrault1313 Місяць тому
Thank you so much for your support.
@BobbbyJoeKlop Місяць тому
The first rule of gambling with our one and only home in the Universe: the house ALWAYS wins.
@A3Kr0n Місяць тому
And never argue the odds with a math professor/ casino expert
@bryanbroekman6008 Місяць тому
Delta 2.1 degrees C average in the year 2030 is my prediction.
@tamlynmcdonald8312 Місяць тому
Just a quick comment about insurance companies, I have been reading the text of the 900 page 2025 project and I just ran across their agenda for government emergency insurance coverage for high risk locations. From what I can tell, they plan to eliminate that option. If this is implemented through a possible conservative presidency (trump heeded many of their policy suggestions in his previous term) there will likely be no recourse for millions of Americans caught in climate disaster scenarios.
@beckers4376 Місяць тому
That's not going to matter. Earth will not be inhabitable much longer.
@SpeedyCorky Місяць тому
talking about global sea surface temps... i was in Costa Rica a few weeks ago. I used to live there 4 years ago, went back to the same place. Uvita / Dominical beaches. walking the shoreline with feet in the water, the sea water felt like luke warm bath water. it was unmistakably WARM. granted it was sunset time, and it was cloudy and raining at the time, but the water was WARM rather than cold. It wasnt like that when i live there 4 years ago. i remember then, it wasnt cold, it was a comfortable temp, maybe hinging on warm-ish. but now, it is unmistakably WARM. not good
@alicesandiableu9926 Місяць тому
"And you won't hear anybody else saying that." Guy McPherson, Andrew Glikson, and Peter Carter don't exist then I guess
@bvrstx9503 Місяць тому
Exactly! I've challenged both these fellows before b/c they always finds some way to discount or demean GMcP who has been truth telling way before and way more clearly and boldly than both of these hopium dealers. Beckwith is much the worse of the two. They love hearing the sound of their own voice. We're beyond 2C already and we won't make it past 2030 so all this recalculation of the decadal rate is empty nonsense.
@langdons2848 Місяць тому
Don't worry, just shift the baseline again and it's all good. We can keep indulging the 1.5 degree fantasy.
@kayleighkimble7688 15 днів тому
“You can do the math, right?” No, that’s the reason I’m here.😂
@GregoryJWalters Місяць тому
Thank you Dr. Jacobson et al. for an Outstanding CEF presentation. 53.09 minute video. That means 3,185.4 seconds. Multiply times 12 Hiroshima bombs that we are heating the global oceans. Bottom line: 37,224.8 bombs just released during the length of your excellent discussions. Mind-boggling....
@earthsystem Місяць тому
I can't comprehend this mindless continuance heat output. I barely travel anymore, never by plane. A few months of purple carrot food boxes turned me vegan (so tasty and energizing), Walking through a Target is gut wrenching, i shop THRIFT-Store. I am unable to be part of the hypnotized human species. Shows like Climate Emergency Forum connect me with my actual species: people unchained from herd instinct.
@martiansoon9092 Місяць тому
If AMOC shutdown happens in 100 years, then Europe is fine. Global warming at the same period of the time is nearing that number by 2100... Current trend is toward 3-5C warming. And adding more rapid land area warming, that may mean 5-10C warming minus whatever AMOC shutdown does (4C drop in temp? leading to 1-6C local warming across Europe? In many places we have passed 2C local warming already...). But yea, overall changes that occurs for these events would be devastating for everyone. Even if temperature balances, the weather does not. And rest of the world warms even more making too many places hostile for 36,5C based life.
@TCRgalaxy Місяць тому
8.2 BILLION is the number our fellow earthlings are concerned with…human centrism is why WASF 🔥🔥🌏🔥🔥
@iandillon7767 Місяць тому
Great stuff. Thanks all
@ClimateEmergencyForum Місяць тому
You're welcome and thanks.
@heidibrault1313 Місяць тому
Thanks!
@TimFrench-tx1xj Місяць тому
Excellent
@ClimateEmergencyForum Місяць тому
Thank you so much 😀
@heidibrault1313 Місяць тому
Thank you so much!
@mirandelf Місяць тому
The Met in the Met Office stands for Meteorological not Metropolitan!
@remicaron3191 Місяць тому
Hope is how you accept your demise.
@guiart4728 Місяць тому
All the hopium that exists or can exist cannot change the math of 2+2 = 4. Sorry folks but 2+2 will never equal 3. Thanks Elliot!!!
@quertiqr Місяць тому
Can it at least equal 1.5? Pretty please?
@guiart4728 Місяць тому
@@quertiqr Not even 3.999999
@singingway Місяць тому
Listening for the second time. Much to understand here.
@larrypilcher3791 18 годин тому
Should be called Climate Extremes. Here in the Southern Interior BC, we just lost our grapes, asparagus, roses, sequoias, and other plants. It was the minus thirty plus Polar Vortex lasting for so long that did it. Back a bit, the Heat Dome happened with the 47 degree heat blasting scorcher session. With the drought, the salmon die… along with the birds, bees, and bears. The wildfires burnt 170 homes on the North Shuswap Shore. Still, the clearcutting of the forests has increased with demand, plus urban sprawl car-culture crap, tearing down a scenic Kault Hill for a freeway. Then there is rampant industrial agriculture wiping out biodiversity, mostly for meat consumption habits. It’s a pain, and we haven’t learned to change the destructive path humans are on.
@mrs.seaturtle66allen78 19 годин тому
I just watched a documentary on Greenland there used to be pine forests there. A large area in Greenland never gets above freezing and the mountains average 10-12 thousand feet high. If we are warming it's manageable. Getting rid of all gas powered vehicles in America will not do anything. This is more about money and power than climate change.
@johngray1439 Місяць тому
Straightforward and honest thank you.
@ClimateEmergencyForum Місяць тому
You're welcome and thank-you.
@shritobi Місяць тому
A very interesting discussion.
@veronicamoradeleon671 Місяць тому
What about New Zealand? I have family there, should we make the effort to move there, for my 4 year old..?
@christinearmington Місяць тому
Depends on your family already there. Will they help you settle in, will they help you through hard times? What about family here? Is there an immigration fee or minimum available funds? One million comes to mind. From a decade ago. Maybe it’s different with family already there. Good luck. 🍀 Maybe check out New England instead.
@morgothra4483 Місяць тому
Wow, that'd be a great opportunity if you managed it. I foolishly passed up the chance in the 70s and now it's nearly impossible. I knew then it'd be the last, best place to be but didn't consider they'd close the gates so soon. I wish you the best of luck.
@MyKharli Місяць тому
Come on , there are loads more important things to worry about on the front pages like NIKE HAVE MESSED WITH ST GEORGES FLAG. we are truly dumb as ,,,
@kirbywebb Місяць тому
we’re past 2 degrees c already
@markarchambault4783 Місяць тому
Depends on when you consider the 'pre-industrial' baseline to have ended.
@hugohabicht9957 Місяць тому
Good. Less heating needed and less CO2
@phrenologisto Місяць тому
@@markarchambault4783 Does it, though? It feels like we're bickering over the intensity of the fire consuming the building we're all trapped in, questioning the alarms going off because they were made in China. "Shit's on fire, yo"
@johnglad5 2 дні тому
I've heard 3.5c starting from the late 1700's.
@HypermarketCommodity Місяць тому
the assumption of a linear rate of warming is already fatal
@tommynickels4570 Місяць тому
Humans deserve EVERYTHING that is coming our way.
@johnmitchell8925 Місяць тому
I agree 🥳
@edtremblay6694 Місяць тому
Not only humans...all the other life on the planet also is in the same boat as us.
@jaydinledford6990 Місяць тому
Agree with the last point, what did the other animals do to deserve this, eh?
@sudd3660 Місяць тому
@@edtremblay6694 non human life is more innocent, it is the conscious and moral human animal that can deserve the consequences of their actions.
@jj6148 Місяць тому
What about the babies and children that have to grow up in this environment but had no bearing in it's making? I'm only 17 but I work with kids (pre-k and kindergarten) and it's heartbreaking knowing what they might have to deal with even by the time they get to my current age.
@donaldkupczyk8284 Місяць тому
My ancestors are herbal medicine doctors on my mother's side, they would predict weather as well . they've been doing it for 500 years before i came to life. My grandfather was a professor of bio chemistry.
@glenwarrengeology Місяць тому
In Australia it is good to learn how the native used plants. There are also naturalised plants from Europe and Asia you can use.
@Silks- Місяць тому
I thought you were going to give us some insight on what they thought or something lol
@roberthornack1692 Місяць тому
We've already blow through the 2.c global average from the 1750 baseline for quite sometime!
@rohitk8797 Місяць тому
Really? Last I checked we exceeded 1.5C in 2024
@user-kv5gh6le6y Місяць тому
Who was it that was recording global sea surface temperatures in the 1850’s ? Nobody.
@GrandmaBev64 Місяць тому
What about the bombing and sinking ships, computer storage cooling systems, oil spills and platforms, and testing of nuclear weapons, doing to the ocean? It can't be good. What about the Cascadia faultlines in the Northwest? The astronomical amount of energy and heat going into the ocean, every second? That's worse than I imagined. I knew it was bad, but the way you guys explain it, it is crystal clear. What are we doing? I learned about the marks on the cards and know how to read them. I was raised in Vegas and was taught gambling and card games before I could read or write. My mind loves puzzles. They call it "Counting Cards" but my mind can't help but know and figure out what cards have been played and what cards are left in the deck. I have been studying climate change and my mind can't help but add up the damage. Thank You All for sounding the alarm. It's so frustrating, to show people proof that this is happening and there are things we can do to minimize or even reverse the damage and the people who can change it don't care because of profits and greed.
@jeanjacquesdessalines1425 Місяць тому
Bravo à vous et merci beaucoup.
@ClimateEmergencyForum Місяць тому
De rien et merci
@heidibrault1313 Місяць тому
Merci infiniment !
@remicaron3191 Місяць тому
We don’t need anymore data what we need is more preparation and action.
@brianwheeldon4643 Місяць тому
I personally agree with you absolutely. My only realisation is that it takes all sorts and these people have allowed us all into their world of data and science. Unfortunately, very few of them will do anything action wise. ScientistsRebel is one such group taking action and making preparation. The action side is driven largely by the XR and JustStop-Oil, Letze Generation of the A22 group. Other people are organising what comes "simultaneously-afterwards" such as Deliberative democracy of some sort on a cross border basis. The only thing to do is to join one of these groups and be a part of the solution. To put our individual selves in service to life. Individually we can do very little.
@thunderstorm6630 Місяць тому
concerning risk you should invite Frederike Otto , she has done some very valuable work on risks of climate events with her new research field attribution studies, she is at Emperial College London
@heyitsalanhere Місяць тому
Yes, they're all highly paid at Imperial to keep this narrative going 🤑🤑🤑
@TheMarcelwa Місяць тому
Reminds me of the “scientific” debate in 1490 - How far is it to the edge of the ocean What created the well documented Altithermal?
@toram6210 Місяць тому
Casino generate tons of co2 every year
@pokemon42jodeldodel97 Місяць тому
I'm at 8min writing this comment. If we take the 1.5 C and we assume that we are able to switch away from fossil fuels that would mean no SO2 in the atmosphere (or way less). In the Ipcc summary for policymakers 2021 they show a cooling through SO2 of about 0.4 C. Also if the Arctic sea ice is gone they assume this happens at 1.5C constantly we get another 0.2 to 0.3C on top. So in my opinion we are not at 1.38C right now but at 1.98 to 2.08C. Please tell me I'm wrong.
@treefrog3349 Місяць тому
I always find it curious that the most obvious, yet rarely discussed aspect of our existential conundrum is over-population. We homo sapiens are literally "eating the Earth alive" by our sheer unsustainable numbers. But an ever-growing "consumer base" is GREAT for business, aint it! Ultimately in will be our own cultural myths and greed that will be the progenitors of our own demise.
@nsbd90now Місяць тому
There are also religious extremists purposefully making as many kids as they can possibly pop out.
@brianwheeldon4643 Місяць тому
The outright desire of total greed of the global corporate elites and their ilk, and not the total world population only the top 1 percent, is the problem. Deliberative democratic means would bring a halt to this greed and both assist with mitigation and adaptation to minimise the inevitable severe harm now underway in the world and accelerating.
@toms.7257 Місяць тому
Don't be a neo-Malthusian! Try to imagine this world first without yourself in it. “Self-deport [from planet earth],” as Mitt Romney used to say. Then see if you still think overpopulation is the problem. Sure, one can solve global warming by eliminating 6 billion people. But you are probably betting against the 6 billion from the global south. You’d be surprised by the resiliency of the world’s poorest. I’m much more worried about western nations that will self-implode because their political systems cannot handle even a 1% drop in GDP. The industrialized west is in far greater danger than developing nations when it comes to global warming. Industrial farming practices will collapse in our lifetime. There will be mass hunger in America.
@daniellatanswell3990 Місяць тому
Check out Bill Rees ;-)
@Lyra0966 Місяць тому
Population control as a concept has been loaded with historical baggage related to racism, eugenics and even genocide. As a black person myself, I do not believe that 'managed population control' is necessarily connected to any of those ills. In fact, it is high-consumption, Western, nations who most need to reduce their populations. Per capita consumption is so much higher in Western nations than in the global south. Furthermore, raising living standards in poorer nations is the best way to naturally limit their rates of population growth because better educated, wealthier women tend to produce fewer children.
@pascalblackmore8098 Місяць тому
The paper that Pual refers to at 32:00 or so with the ice extent increasing in the northern hemisphere due to AMOC shutdown is by Rene van Westen I presume. Note that they calculated the AMOC shutdown effects while not taking into account the warming! It was just a model experiment on the isolated AMOC effects. You have to add in the warming. That may change things and confirm Paul's opinion, but it would not be news to the authors of the paper :)
@christinearmington Місяць тому
I haven’t read the paper, but this is a question that’s been considered for years. I’m pretty sure that Paul even addressed it. Even with the Heinrich events we can trace in the past, to apply those results to the current situation you have to factor in the 50% extra co2 in the atmosphere plus the heat retained in the oceans. 🌊
@stanleykubrick8786 Місяць тому
Hope isn't a strategy Mr. Host. It doesn't work for individuals going to casinos or participating in online gambling and it isn't working for humans.
@Tommytightlips Місяць тому
Love Elliot. It used to be a major topic that the original baseline in the first IPCC report was 1750... Conservatively thats +0.3-0.5C to the average...so 1.9C ish... Madness Paul I know you did mention this
@treefrog3349 Місяць тому
The technological, numerical infatuation of our contemporary scientists tell the numerical truths of current reality, but even they often seem to miss the profound lunacy, the unimaginable foolishness of our contemporary human "endeavor". The suicidal bent of the human species is a terrible thing to behold - if you can can see it.
@louisehoff9467 Місяць тому
Prof. Jacobson has set the bar high for reporting on the current state of our climate - next time ask him about the MEER project
@heidibrault1313 Місяць тому
Good idea. We've had Dr. Ye Tao on several programs.
@user-dm3ok7rf6l Місяць тому
MEER Reflection Framework is simple.
@user-lb5zc6uj1n 20 днів тому
Setting off nuclear bombs sped us up quite a bit
@DanielWatson-vv7cd Місяць тому
I could understand concern for ocean temperatures if it went up 15° more, but I (and I bet most people) can't see a difference between say 85°F and 87°F. Both are just a nice warm day. Can y'all explain what would happen if oceanic temps. go up 10°, and do you think people should stop using fossil fuels and start driving EVs?
@quertiqr Місяць тому
EVs were never going to fix anything. It was just a selling point to market more cars. Mining and producing the batteries alone would take a huge toll on the climate. The only real way to fix the car problem is to radically change our public transportation networks entirely from the ground up, anything else is just a bandaid
@christinearmington Місяць тому
98.6 and 102.6 aren’t so far apart. But one says you’re okay 👍 and the other means you’re sick 🤒. The difference between frozen depths of a glacial period with a mile of ice over NYC and the balmy interglacial we enjoy today - well maybe yesterday really - is a near 10 C.
@DanielWatson-vv7cd Місяць тому
@@christinearmington I don't think we need to be concerned with global warming. A warmer Earth would be better than the climate today. Proof of this --- There are more people living in the small Island of Hawaii than people living in freezing cold Alaska. Doncha' think? 🤔
@TheRealSnakePlisken Місяць тому
Wow. The lack of awareness is astonishing.
@heyitsalanhere Місяць тому
Haha...I like the question 👍 I'm not sure about the term "fossil fuels" though 🤔 Yeh...EV's everywhere...that'll solve it all 🤣
@StarLakeFarm Місяць тому
Very informative session. Keep up the great work
@heidibrault1313 Місяць тому
Thank you so much for your support!
@TennesseeJed Місяць тому
Eliot says it so well.
@heidibrault1313 Місяць тому
It was great having him on our program.
@TennesseeJed Місяць тому
@@heidibrault1313 I wish Eliot had given Paul his hope synthesis on the perils outlined in the Pandora story as it is compelling to consider the suffering hope can bring on top of a predicament.
@edtremblay6694 Місяць тому
I really don't understand how anyone can say the planet has warmed by 1.whaterver. the artic has warmed by how much in comparison? It's way more than the 1.5 degrees. Probably closer to 8 to 10 degrees. The north and south poles are the going to be the biggest driver of global heating.
@ronkaw Місяць тому
The poles are a net heat sink. The tropical seas ( and to a land to a lesser extent) is the driver. Pity these super-duper sophisticated climate models bring it all down to a single arbitrary useless number. I hope some day the models will consider that the earth is 70% ocean and 30% land, that the tropics 0-30, the mid latitudes 30-60 and the polar regions 60-90 are quite different as is day/night and clear/cloudy sky. We can handle 2*3*2*2 = 24 indicators/metrics to give us an idea what might be happening, where and when.
@ronaldcadorette4353 Місяць тому
We have surpassed the tipping point in regards to global temperature increase. Nothing we do from here will change that. So, in regards to EVs and ‘green energy’, tell our governments to ‘F OFF’ and let us enjoy the few good years we have left!
@volkerengels5298 Місяць тому
33:45 Ocean warming is accelerating - yes -but last year it made a JUMP. Which is a different equitation. LOL mistake: *equation
@h.clayjohnson3284 Місяць тому
Why did no one mention that IPCC predictions are entirely based on models, excluding “hot” models? Data that are not incorporated in a model has no effect. This has weighted predictions towards lower temperatures.
@robertalkemade989 Місяць тому
category 6 hurricane coming
@bqdavis1 Місяць тому
I am about 45 minutes in. Where you put the baseline does change the slope. There seems to be a lot of ideas about where to start, but seem to imply a steady state to compare to after the start. Thinking this would measure human influence. But the real baseline would be almost impossible to establish. The world has been warming at various rates since the current ice age maximum, and will continue to do so until the end of the ice age thousands of years from now. A real baseline would be what the readings would be without human influence and it is not steady state. So without a good reference, we must be flexible and try to be ready for a range of outcomes and not do anything drastic based on problematic projections.
@christinearmington Місяць тому
Thousands of years? We are already at the end of a typical 10k year interglacial period. Back in the 1980s “they” we talking about a cooling trend. Maybe that would take thousands of years to fully descend into another glacial period, aka ice age. But the earth is overcoming the cooling trend. Disastrously and rapidly thanks to 50% extra co2.
@singingway Місяць тому
Parts per million sets the conditions for earths energy balance/ imbalance. PPM should be the top story of every news everywhere.
@phrenologisto Місяць тому
It's the dial on the oven. There's huge difference between 280° and 420°-500° (depending how/where/what you're measuring). How we ever convinced ourselves we could touch the dial in the first place and get away with it is what boggles my mind
@bearacuda Місяць тому
When CO2 sequestration is commercialized, then there is no profit incentive to STOP emitting CO2. The more profit that can be made from CO2 emission will create opportunities to profit from CO2 sequestration. CO2 sequestration will not stop or curtail CO2 emission, it will have the effect of promoting it. We should not treat the symptom, we should treat the source (CO2 emission).
@christinearmington Місяць тому
Jevon would be so proud 🤦♀️
@fundacionbaluuala8883 Місяць тому
Thank you so much Dr. Jacobson and the Climate Emergency Forum, what an excelent program. Climate change is such a complex topic and with so many opinions and interpretations, not many people have the time and patience to stay updated. Dr. Jacobson has a way of pointing out so clearly what matters, in the jungle of information that´s out there. As an idea for a future program, I think a conversation between Dr. Jacobson and Dr. Kevin Anderson could be revealing and productive.
@heidibrault1313 Місяць тому
Thank you so much for your support. I agree...great idea for a program.
@RajendraTayya-rh9mk Місяць тому
Experience is ecologically interacting. Memory is collecting evidence. Thinking is preventing problems.
@elainebraindrain3174 Місяць тому
Isnt it higher like 2.
@davidwatson7604 Місяць тому
Algo boost! a crystal flute boom
@quertiqr Місяць тому
Crystal flute boom is an amazing combination of words. I really like that a lot!
@paulusbrent9987 Місяць тому
21:14 That"s a strange statement. I don't feel this to be correct. I read of many climate scientists calling for emission reduction.
@swiftlytiltingplanet8481 Місяць тому
Yeah, I agree. That has no basis in reality and I can't imagine why he said it.
@xscale Місяць тому
If you're looking for a climate refuge, the best place on the planet is probablyTasmania, which is stabilized by having a warm continent to its north and a cool one to its south, makes plenty of its own food, and has no earthquakes of other geological problems. Getting here is problematic in that Australia doesn't make immigration easy, but there's a back door - New Zealand. NZ offers a lot of immigration paths and has a treaty that permits its citizens to live and own property anywhere in Australia as long as they want ...
@glenwarrengeology Місяць тому
If you go to NZ it will be as resilient as Tassie, but NZ has geysers which are more exciting.
@beverleybarnes5656 Місяць тому
There's a new term that may alter your opinion of Tasmania and New Zealand being safe havens: "SMOC", the Southern Ocean equivalent of AMOC.
@robertinget1613 Місяць тому
Coming off a many year drought, Ashland, Or. Our winter @ 27,000 ft experienced far greater rainfall.
@woodchipgardens9084 Місяць тому
Persistent westerly winds have also dragged the current in one direction for over 20 years, increasing the speed and size of the clockwise current and preventing the fresh water from leaving the Arctic Ocean. This decades-long western wind is unusual for the region, where previously, the winds changed direction every five to seven year. Scientists have been keeping an eye on the Beaufort Gyre in case the wind changes direction again. If the direction were to change, the wind would reverse the current, pulling it counterclockwise and releasing the water it has accumulated all at once. "If the Beaufort Gyre were to release the excess fresh water into the Atlantic Ocean, it could potentially slow down its circulation. And that would have hemisphere-wide implications for the climate, especially in Western Europe," said Tom Armitage, lead author of the study and polar scientist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California. Fresh water released from the Arctic Ocean to the North Atlantic can change the density of surface waters. Normally, water from the Arctic loses heat and moisture to the atmosphere and sinks to the bottom of the ocean, where it drives water from the north Atlantic Ocean down to the tropics like a conveyor belt. This important current is called the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and helps regulate the planet's climate by carrying heat from the tropically-warmed water to northern latitudes like Europe and North America. If slowed enough, it could negatively impact marine life and the communities that depend on it. "We don't expect a shutting down of the Gulf Stream, but we do expect impacts. That's why we're monitoring the Beaufort Gyre so closely," said Alek Petty, a co-author on the paper and polar scientist at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. The study also found that, although the Beaufort Gyre is out of balance because of the added energy from the wind, the current expels that excess energy by forming small, circular eddies of water. While the increased turbulence has helped keep the system balanced, it has the potential to lead to further ice melt because it mixes layers of cold, fresh water with relatively warm, salt water below. The melting ice could, in turn, lead to changes in how nutrients and organic material in the ocean are mixed, significantly affecting the food chain and wildlife in the Arctic. The results reveal a delicate balance between wind and ocean as the sea ice pack recedes under climate change. "What this study is showing is that the loss of sea ice has really important impacts on our climate system that we're only just discovering," said Petty News Media Contacts Rexana Vizza / Matthew Segal Jet Propulsion Laboratory Pasadena Calif 818-393-1931 / 818-354-8307
@heyitsalanhere Місяць тому
😴
@dandilion62 Місяць тому
I'm so proud to be a part of this community...
@heidibrault1313 Місяць тому
Thank you for being part of it.
@bernieo.5645 Місяць тому
CO2, carbon dioxide? Plant thrive on this
@obsoleteoptics Місяць тому
Not when it gets too hot, they don't.
@andrewrussell4597 Місяць тому
Look at how well the plants on Venus are doing.
@margaretneanover3385 12 днів тому
What happens to higher temps around a biosphere or if they are . The issue needs to be seen prior to satellite and after . The equation is why as much as how . Imo
@chyfields Місяць тому
What is the risk of carbon monoxide poisoning, from a critical mass of exhaust fumes, 24/7, for years?
@frinoffrobis Місяць тому
three years if not before
@trulyaghast9712 Місяць тому
Three of my favorite and most trusted climate commentators in one place. Good conversation. One question. Why not a single mention of methane? I understand it is too early to be concerned of a clathrate ‘bomb’, but, for instance, are we not currently seeing incredible disintegration of boreal permafrost ?
@ronkaw Місяць тому
Eliot: Nowhere in Canada.. then go on to outline 3 areas in the US on the Canadian border where the climate is very similar and where there are other very good reasons to live there ????
@cityofwelland634 Місяць тому
Thanks again gents that was very interesting. Don from Welland
@ClimateEmergencyForum Місяць тому
Glad you enjoyed it
@monkeyfist.348 Місяць тому
Great to see Eliot in the conversation here. We all have this question of survivability in our heads. For so long, we have mostly relied on the science to tell us what is possible. Being a doomer, it seems to me, relates more to our social and political structures. You can look at the science and think we can be effective. We can reasonably, "solve the equation" in our minds. That is not the real world where there exists, long histories of conflict. Our fate as a species will center around our ability to work together towards common causes. Perhaps not, the methane offgassing issues in the north could preempt all our efforts. But for now, there is an open door to the future, a direction humanity could move towards. Many would say rightly, I think, that we will not choose that door. We are opening all the doors right now. Many are choosing conflict over cooperation, furthering the doomer style outcomes. Hopelessness is the state reached prior to radical action. Action becomes mandatory as a response to an ever worsening situation. Our action will be the spring from which new hope arises. Only from that position will "hope" be framed properly. We would not likely recognize that hope, as hope, from our current position. The evaluation process at the moment will inform us of what goals are... resonable expectations. It will be a position of recognizing and accepting our losses. We are not there yet, but an ever worsening climate will push us there in time. That will probably happen in the next few years... 🤞
@obsoleteoptics Місяць тому
LOL @ Paul still clinging desperately to hope in the form of CDR & SRM
@earthsystem Місяць тому
If tossed into the ocean after a capsize, would you keep swimming toward land as long as strength allowed? Paul would.
@heidibrault1313 Місяць тому
@@earthsystemI agree. There's too much at stake.
@earthsystem Місяць тому
For me sometimes hope hurts, right? Sometimes there's less pain to give up hope
@obsoleteoptics Місяць тому
@@earthsystem with no land in sight, how would one know which way to swim?
@obsoleteoptics Місяць тому
Direct air capture is the same as bitcoin mining. It sucks up electricity, preventing the electricity from replacing fossils, increasing air pollution, CO2 & fossil mining.
@TCRgalaxy Місяць тому
Hope is BS Paul…
@barrycarter8276 Місяць тому
Dr/Prof. Eliot Jacobson, a breath of fresh air in humanity’s polycrisis, a real Doomer you can believe in, and if you find him too depressing, can I suggest listening to Peggy Lee’s song “ Is that all there is” and thereafter at every opportunity party like there’s no tomorrow, for one day there won’t be🤔
@andrewjackson7785 Місяць тому
Watch a few Tony Heller videos and you’ll see the chaos of the past weather and climate. Most US state temperature records are still from the early 1900’s. The IPCC finds no trends in extremes; so nothing to worry about.
@Jc-ms5vv Місяць тому
😂😂😂
@paul756uk2 Місяць тому
@@Jc-ms5vvis that all you've got? How about an intelligent response?
@mamapretz Місяць тому
Thank you for this video, overflowing with information and hearing Dr Eliot Jacobson was very interesting. His twitter charts are enlightening to say the least, if you follow him over there. I agree with Dr Carter about doomers - it’s realism imo. Let’s get it right. It’s outrageous that we let anyone criticize the realists when there’s an abundance of data and proof is in the numbers. Another well-done video from the Climate Emergency Forum!
@ClimateEmergencyForum Місяць тому
Glad you enjoyed it!
@treefrog3349 Місяць тому
Talking about "actuarial assessments" as they pertain to the viability of insurance companies! Really? It terrifies me when I hear intelligent people avoiding the "no-brainer", blatantly-obvious crux of our impending disaster. This entire conversation scares me as much as ocean acidification, species loss, and wet-bulb temperatures!
Ветерани космічних військ
Переглядів 619 тис.
The Real News Network
Переглядів 53 тис.
StarTalk
Переглядів 1,4 млн