Переглядів 648,193
The Russian Air Force began the war in Ukraine with a formidable inventory of combat aircraft (fixed wing and helicopters) supported by an array of stand-off munitions and EWAR capabilities.
In the opening hours, it seemed that those capabilities may be paying off, with paratroopers inserting at Hostomel without interception by Ukraine's integrated air defence system (IADS). At the same time, Russian columns were (seemingly incomprehensibly) being picked apart by slow moving TB-2 Drones.
But things changed quickly, and since the stabilisation of the situation, the airspace over Ukraine has been contested. Aircraft fly low to avoid interception, while new threats periodically emerge to challenge the equilibrium.
Recently, those include HARM missiles, Iranian and Russian loitering munitions, and cruise missile attacks on civilian infrastructure.
In this video I look at the impact of air-defence systems on the Ukraine war, and what lessons observers may be taking based on the available data.
Patreon:
/ perunau
Gaming Chanel:
/ @perungamingau
Caveats:
The two big unknowns sitting behind this one should be obvious - accurate loss data and the burn rate on munitions is hard to come by. Visually confirmed losses diverge heavily from claimed losses in every category, but for aircraft in particular.
While an important topic - it is important to remember that the data here is ...flawed to say the least.
Sources:
Figures for arms exports are SIPRI TIVs for 2001-2021
Figures on pre-war weapon inventories are Military Balance 2021
Individual engagement examples like shootdowns are credited to a range of OSINT aggregators including:
www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02...
UAWeapons?ref_src...
Usage of Gepards and Osa together in Ukraine:
www.armyrecognition.com/ukrai...
On Russian EWAR efforts - Colonel (Retired) Jeffrey Fischer
www.thedefensepost.com/2022/0...
"The Russian Victory Everyone Missed" - Military History not Visualised (note that I don't agree with all of the conclusions therein)
• The Russian Victory mi...
Slovakian S-300 supply
www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/4...
Movement of Russian missiles from Saint Petersburg:
yle.fi/news/3-12626182#:~:tex....
Russian sources are as previously stated
Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Opening Words
00:02:19 - What Am I Covering?
00:03:34 - Soviet Sam Development
00:05:55 - An Integrated Offering
00:06:32 - Long Range Systems
00:09:06 - Mid-Short Range Defence
00:10:14 - SHORAD, Lots of SHORAD
00:12:25 - The Dominant Actor
00:13:55 - Usage In Ukraine
00:14:10 - The Opening Days
00:16:48 - The Line's Steady
00:19:07 - Contested Airspace
00:19:41 - Disruptive Systems
00:21:18 - The Missile Campaigns
00:22:47 - "Traditional Targets"
00:25:53 - A Failure of SEAD/DEAD
00:27:25 - "Unconventional Targets"
00:28:23 - The TB-2 Experience
00:29:40 - The Himars Problem
00:32:40 - The Orlan Problem
00:35:47 - Losses and Statistics
00:37:04 - Confirmed Russian Losses
00:37:50 - Ukrainian Losses
00:39:00 - Resupply and Sustainment
00:40:49 - Western Systems and Their Deployment
00:42:35 - What Has Been Pledged?
00:44:50 - Inventory Problem
00:45:56 - NASAMS and its Significance
00:48:14 - Themes and Observations
00:48:59 - SEAD/DEAD Are Hard
00:50:44 - Drones - The Vulnerable
00:51:28 - Drones - The Problematic
00:53:42 - New Threats, New Defences
00:55:08 - Old Tools, and New Ones
00:56:22 - EWAR & Software
00:57:17 - A Renewed Market
01:00:06 - Conclusions
01:01:26 - Channel Update