DeepMind’s New AI Beats Billion Dollar Systems - For Free!

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Two Minute Papers

Two Minute Papers

2 місяці тому

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📝 The paper "GraphCast: Learning skillful medium-range global weather forecasting" is available here:
arxiv.org/abs/2212.12794
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📝 My latest paper on simulations that look almost like reality is available for free here:
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www.nature.com/articles/s4156...
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КОМЕНТАРІ: 624
@MrFlibbleflobble
@MrFlibbleflobble 2 місяці тому
I think its important to remember that a good deal of thst billion dollar industry will be involved in the collection of the data that is required for the ai to use. This will all still be needed.
@andrewferguson6901
@andrewferguson6901 2 місяці тому
More data more better
@oldmech619
@oldmech619 2 місяці тому
The NextGen Weather Program will use data from aircraft. Each aircraft will transmit on ADSB to ground information such as wind direction, velocity, humidity, temperature, vertical winds, air pressure, and other parameters. This is very low cost program, but with greater impact on ships, planes and us humans. All this data information is already accessible from the aircraft navigation systems.
@juhajuntunen7866
@juhajuntunen7866 2 місяці тому
Automatic weather stations need maintenance too. Near me is weather station but it did not got all data because no-one want to do that part time job for pennies (doing work with schedule mean you can not keep vacansy etc bas things)
@patrickvalentino600
@patrickvalentino600 2 місяці тому
And just think of the quality of the inputs,especially considering how the weather is such a bugbear for the powers that be....this should be viewed as terrifying rather than revolutionary
@anselmerevuz3742
@anselmerevuz3742 2 місяці тому
exactly, this paper is impressive enough in terms of performance (if we assume that the numbers are right). It would have been better not to act like they were doing magic, forgetting that the data that was used comes from the international “Billion Dollar System”
@Infectd
@Infectd 2 місяці тому
One could argue the billion dollar system was necessary to build the training set needed to create the AI.
@nakodares5982
@nakodares5982 2 місяці тому
And one would be objectively corrects
@TheJoungRed
@TheJoungRed 2 місяці тому
And you would be correct
@inoscopedjfk8207
@inoscopedjfk8207 2 місяці тому
But once the AI learns to walk, it will be able to take over, and only need refinement thereon.
@waveril5167
@waveril5167 2 місяці тому
Not really, it needs lots of maintenance, supervision and new and better data
@nakodares5982
@nakodares5982 2 місяці тому
@@inoscopedjfk8207 just like kids and their parents. But the kid would never have existed without being raised by its parents
@_abdul
@_abdul 2 місяці тому
My Jaw gets significantly lower each time he says " ... it get's even better". What a time to be Alive.
@illliiiiillliii6265
@illliiiiillliii6265 2 місяці тому
Ikr i was holding on tight to my papers. And good thing i did, i would have dropped them otherwise.
@ineeddaname2
@ineeddaname2 2 місяці тому
Could fit a basketball into your mouth after this video
@metonoma
@metonoma 2 місяці тому
🎵 my anaconda want some
@nullbeyondo
@nullbeyondo 2 місяці тому
What a time to be jobless
@jytou
@jytou 2 місяці тому
I think the huge elephant in the room in this video is that their model runs on *a single tpu* (see 2:20 ). That really blew my mind!
@maverick.gaurav
@maverick.gaurav 2 місяці тому
I don't think most of us in the comment section understand the gravity of this development. This is a revolution in AI technology. Working on something immensely complex like the planet's weather system which is dependent of tens if not hundreds of variables is mind numbingly difficult. Moreover such application has a direct tangible impact on lives of people. Even if the predictions are half good in this first generation paper.. Two more papers down the line, this tech might be able to give accurate predictions most of the times.. Awesome paper... 🤯
@liobello3141
@liobello3141 2 місяці тому
Well yes I do agree that accurate and efficient weather prediction is important. The paper is over a year old, so I don't see the crazy new AI part that much.
@DWM864
@DWM864 2 місяці тому
most of the people won't understand how the gov would use this kind of ttecnology to c.ontr.ol the worlsd
@TextiX887
@TextiX887 2 місяці тому
@@DWM864 Hah! Funny, Control what? "It will rain tomorrow, oh no! we lied, it's actually sunny! Muhahah!!" You think *any* government has any control over the world at al? Weather forecasts are dozens of nations working together, it's not controlled by a single entity. Also they said this program is open source, meaning ANYONE can see **exactly** how it works and operate, does that sound very secret conspiracy to you? This is a channel for science not pseudo-politics.
@Jet_Set_Go
@Jet_Set_Go 2 місяці тому
another skynet dude. bruh@@DWM864
@michaelleue7594
@michaelleue7594 2 місяці тому
More than hundreds. More than thousands, even. Every weather station in the world is its own set of temperature, pressure, etc. variables, and they are recursive. Weather is time series dependent, so different readings over time from each station would need to be accounted for. Each parameter in the model represents a variable, so we're looking at a problem with hundreds of millions of variables.
@R2Bl3nd
@R2Bl3nd 2 місяці тому
I was just thinking about how it was only a matter of time before AI was used to predict the weather.
@roscatres
@roscatres 2 місяці тому
Some form of AI has been used to predict the weather since it's beginning, this is just another step (a huge one) in it's development
@R2Bl3nd
@R2Bl3nd 2 місяці тому
@@roscatres Yes what I meant was modern AI, as in, stuff that runs on GPUs and uses machine learning.
@nicholassalmon8054
@nicholassalmon8054 2 місяці тому
@@roscatresI don’t think we can even call that old technology that used raw calculations and algorithms AI anymore 😅
@memegazer
@memegazer 2 місяці тому
It makes me concerned about chips with all the rapid progess in AI applications. It was already a point geopolitical tension and demand for compute has ramped up beyond manufacturers expected projections by a significant amount.
@R2Bl3nd
@R2Bl3nd 2 місяці тому
@@memegazer well what's going to happen as well is we are going to develop new kinds of hardware which can do these AI operations thousands of times more efficiently. So not only is the ability to make more chips going to give someone more power, but also, figuring out any sorts of more efficient designs could really turn the tide.
@JeremyDWilliamsOfficial
@JeremyDWilliamsOfficial 2 місяці тому
In all humanity's history, technological revolutions of this magnitude have been rare.The printing press, steam engine, flight, space flight, computers and now this. And this is likely to be the biggest transformation. What a time to be alive indeed!
@Simplicity4711
@Simplicity4711 2 місяці тому
I think it doesn't make sense to have this computed in your pocket if the input needed from all the weather stations needs to be transmitted over the internet anyway, right?
@Walter5850
@Walter5850 2 місяці тому
I think so too. He probably only mentioned it to elucidate how power-efficient this calculation is.
@ghostinplainsight4803
@ghostinplainsight4803 2 місяці тому
It's a metaphor derp.
@Andre-iy2ob
@Andre-iy2ob 2 місяці тому
It is common for rural properties to have their own equipment, but depend on companies to analyze them. With this, it seems that one person can really do everything locally.
@atlas_19
@atlas_19 2 місяці тому
If this was made into an app and the sensors on phones were used for data collection it very well could be done. Perhaps even better than weather stations.
@estranhokonsta
@estranhokonsta 2 місяці тому
@@atlas_19 the sensors of the phone would have to be Seriously Different (Repeat Seriously Different) from what they are now to be used with this model.
@shadowdragon3521
@shadowdragon3521 2 місяці тому
This is awesome. I'd like to see an AI tackle predicting space weather and its effects on Earth's weather as well
@benisrood
@benisrood 2 місяці тому
Extremely important! Imagine if we could predict solar activity.
@freerobux49
@freerobux49 2 місяці тому
@@benisrood that would be.. significantly more difficult than predicting the weather
@elivegba8186
@elivegba8186 2 місяці тому
​@@freerobux49magnitudes higher
@tiavor
@tiavor 2 місяці тому
@@freerobux49 we just don't have the necessary sensors yet. all we need is more data.
@fruub
@fruub 2 місяці тому
but not impossible @@freerobux49
@UtraVioletDreams
@UtraVioletDreams 2 місяці тому
I've been following this channel for the past 3 years. I only see cutting edge science. Thank you, dr With difficult name :D
@michaelleue7594
@michaelleue7594 2 місяці тому
Carol's whole knife hair.
@pmshadow
@pmshadow 2 місяці тому
Carols Johnny Ferrer
@lawrenwillard9331
@lawrenwillard9331 2 місяці тому
Cara Jolay If I Hail
@BhaumikDave
@BhaumikDave 2 місяці тому
I hear Dr.Karo johna ifahir.
@OneEpoch
@OneEpoch 2 місяці тому
your enthusiasm is infectious! your channel is the one i trust most for grounded non hyperbolic AI news. thanks for holding on to all these papers!
@oromis995
@oromis995 2 місяці тому
Solid work with this paper my man! Keep up the good work
@wege8409
@wege8409 2 місяці тому
it's all graphs baby
@vaisakhkm783
@vaisakhkm783 2 місяці тому
always has been....
@vidal9747
@vidal9747 2 місяці тому
Wolfram agrees with you...
@Tean229
@Tean229 2 місяці тому
That would greatly optimize the harvesting periods, since even minutes are very important for farmers. That's a great breakthrough! Hopefully it will get better in 2 years or so.
@morn1415
@morn1415 2 місяці тому
"Right on the tick. Amazing. Absolutely amazing. Too bad the post office isn't as efficient as the weather service." - Dr. Emmet Brown, Back to the Future 2
@maxmyzer9172
@maxmyzer9172 2 місяці тому
This is so cool! 1km resolution when? Managing to beat the HRES in some bases is amazing
@attitudego
@attitudego 2 місяці тому
What a time to be alive!!!
@markus-ks9sf
@markus-ks9sf 2 місяці тому
What a time to unalive
@clark_johannes
@clark_johannes 2 місяці тому
@@markus-ks9sf now clean your washing machine lint
@marlonochoaj
@marlonochoaj 2 місяці тому
Thank you for bringing these videos to us. Truly, thank you.
@Game_Lab_Germany
@Game_Lab_Germany 2 місяці тому
i already squeezed my paper to early, so i have to squeeze my desk now.
@zildjiandrummer1
@zildjiandrummer1 2 місяці тому
I've just started to work with GraphCast in the past week or so, and I'm blown away by this video! What a time to be alive!
@calorus
@calorus 2 місяці тому
I started off thinking "at least the previous model was necessary to get here". But then I realised the weather is always happening, so other than the sensors, none of the current system was required at all. Fundamentally those Billion dollar systems are now functionally worthless. And if we had never had anything other than Deep Mind and the old measurements, we would still have just skipped right here. Utterly mind bending. What a time to be alive.
@0bloodshot0
@0bloodshot0 2 місяці тому
no you still need another system to compare them and weather models are used to develope clima models, not sure if you can do this with a system like that. time will tell
@calorus
@calorus 2 місяці тому
@@0bloodshot0 You don't need another system to compare them to, because you can choose any historic weather state, input all of the known values, then compare the predictions to the actual readings at the predicted intervals.
@nakodares5982
@nakodares5982 2 місяці тому
The previous model absolutely was necessary to get here. You could theoretically argue that all you need is the data and not the models but that’s just not how it works in practice. The AI are almost always built off the back of previous modelling efforts, both for validation and more granular and wide ranging data assimilation.
@Steamrick
@Steamrick 2 місяці тому
@@calorus Much of the billion dollar systems is instrumentation. We'll still need those. It's the supercomputer that's not going to be needed anymore. Except for training up the next-gen weather prediction AI. As far as using old data for comparison: that's all training data. Using training data for testing is no good.
@Aaron.Thomas
@Aaron.Thomas 2 місяці тому
​@@Steamrick If you leave out the last 6 months of historical data from the training set, then that last 6 months is now good testing data, and that's always going to be the case because time is linear and keeps happening. There's no difference between doing that and giving it all the data for training then waiting 6 months for new data. Data is data. It's good testing data regardless of it being current or past, it's merely whether or not its already in the training set or not.
@evanc3666
@evanc3666 2 місяці тому
This is your first video that's really got me thinking what a time to be alive!
@andru5054
@andru5054 2 місяці тому
exciting stuff
@colinjacobs176
@colinjacobs176 2 місяці тому
Genuinely unbelievable. So crazy. It would be interesting to probe the sensitivity of the models to the various inputs and learn about the physics of weather (or rather, learn what the model learnt about the physics of weather). Could a similar network be put to work on long-term climate predictions?
@haydensimpson02
@haydensimpson02 2 місяці тому
This is actually insane. One of the most incredible practical applications of AI in my opinion.
@user-dh3oq5yc5u
@user-dh3oq5yc5u 2 місяці тому
Sir, your enthusiasm is an inspiration. Thank you for existing.
@finbeats
@finbeats 2 місяці тому
6:22 paired with SORA!! insane day
@greg7633
@greg7633 2 місяці тому
Where does it say that?
@tangobayus
@tangobayus 2 місяці тому
This demonstrates the power of specialized models using current algorithms. Imagine a Mixture of Experts system made up of thousands of experts.
@Chef_PC
@Chef_PC 2 місяці тому
Holy Mother of Papers!!! 😅 ❤
@logank9177
@logank9177 2 місяці тому
What a time to be alive!
@ThatGuyMagnum
@ThatGuyMagnum 2 місяці тому
Only after seeing this video have a realised just how much history I have witnessed in the making thanks to this channel. Thank you so much for giving my lazy ass a peek at so many things that now have already changed the world.
@residualramirez
@residualramirez 2 місяці тому
This is great because I own a rain gutter company and it will really help to have accurate weather forecasts. Now we just need to learn how to run this myself! Hopefully someone will make an easy to use UI for it
@BakersTuts
@BakersTuts 2 місяці тому
Can’t wait to see your video on OpenAI’s Sora that was just announced today
@NikHem343
@NikHem343 2 місяці тому
I wish your video titles were less clickbaity, so that I’d know what it’s about
@KrullStar
@KrullStar 2 місяці тому
Slight problem of weather modification, but I guess that’ll help expose any deliberate changes like that.
@Nik-lf4rw
@Nik-lf4rw 2 місяці тому
i love the future what a great paper really impressed
@R2Bl3nd
@R2Bl3nd 2 місяці тому
I think this video is one of the most impressive as of late, it's just non-stop jaw dropping facts
@franciscomagalhaes7457
@franciscomagalhaes7457 2 місяці тому
Just having more accurate rain forecast would improve my quality of life so much. Not even getting into extreme weather here, just knowing when to pack an umbrella and rain boots. I hope we get to enjoy the fruits of this labor soon.
@Xodroc
@Xodroc 2 місяці тому
I'd be interested to see it tackle historical data and see how it measures up to something like the farmer's almanac(among others), which in the past, predicted some harsh winters that others missed.
@Ou8y2k2
@Ou8y2k2 2 місяці тому
I can imagine that a couple papers down the line it'll be used on your phone in real-time (
@Muscleduck
@Muscleduck 2 місяці тому
Weather prediction was one of those things that felt like a nobrainer to do with AI. Amazing results!
@sabofx
@sabofx Місяць тому
Super cool! Deepmind FTW! 🥰
@Sasasala386
@Sasasala386 2 місяці тому
I remember hearing that phrase talking about that "if tech is so advanced beyond our comprehension it's like magic"...This is so close to it! Imagine 100 years back hearing that we would be able to predict storms during a bright clear day.
@EduardoRohdeEras
@EduardoRohdeEras 2 місяці тому
As a atmospheric model computer scientist myself, that's mind blowing!
@johnnybueti
@johnnybueti 2 місяці тому
I wonder if someone's already working on an aurora borealis/australis model!! This is potentially revolutionary, what a time to be alive!
@witext
@witext 2 місяці тому
I've been waiting for something like this, like surely a deeplearning network could be used to predict the weather better with how good they've gotten the past decade
@animanaut
@animanaut 2 місяці тому
so, those graphs can be pictured like beefed up cellular automata? ca also take the neighborhood into consideration, but those graphs make this much more flexible and extensible i guess?
@anteshell
@anteshell 2 місяці тому
No, Not in the least. Cellular automatas have absolutely nothing to do with this at all. No similarities whatsoever.
@chrismata1590
@chrismata1590 2 місяці тому
@anteshell not even like neurons in the brain?
@anteshell
@anteshell 2 місяці тому
​@@chrismata1590 Not even what? What are you even asking? That neurons are not like cellular automata, or like neural AI? If the first, not at all. Neurons in our brains are nothing like cellular automata. If the latter, there are quite a lot more similarities (as in more than zero), but that is not what OP asked about.
@animanaut
@animanaut 2 місяці тому
@@anteshell maybe my wording was off. sorry for the confusion. if you view every cell in a ca having relationships with their immediate neighbours you could picture this as a 'sort of' graph conceptually. maybe the analogy does not work here
@donutbedum9837
@donutbedum9837 2 місяці тому
@@anteshell why so butthurt? bashing on a curious individual seem fun to you?
@HamguyBacon
@HamguyBacon 2 місяці тому
you could use this for ingame weather patterns.
@alkeryn1700
@alkeryn1700 2 місяці тому
sure but that seems widely overkill lol.
@MustacheMerlin
@MustacheMerlin 2 місяці тому
I remember there was a paper also by Google about nowcasting I think way back in 2020 I think? and it was also awesome. Machine Learning is really good at this kind of problem - science that is truly complex, in the sense that it can't easily be understood just by decomposing it into small, simple pieces but really does have to be studied in it's whole detail. I bet that won't stay at just 40 million parameters, somebody's gonna throw AI on the already existing weather predicting super computers and it's gonna be nuts.
@AboutOliver
@AboutOliver 2 місяці тому
Incredible what AI is able to accomplish. I can't wait to see what's next!
@nowonmetube
@nowonmetube 2 місяці тому
I just waited for this!
@dreamphoenix
@dreamphoenix 2 місяці тому
Thank you.
@user-dv6yo5bc4z
@user-dv6yo5bc4z 2 місяці тому
Had to read this paper myself for that AI course I aced Honestly a great technology
@luciangutu
@luciangutu 2 місяці тому
Great news! Was wondering if the voice for the video is AI generated. It feels that the delay between words is sometimes longer than usual.
@Marcus-Lim
@Marcus-Lim 2 місяці тому
What a time to be alive :)
@BienestarMutuo
@BienestarMutuo 2 місяці тому
This method also can work for engineering simulations: air, heat, fluid.
@lukaspellant5862
@lukaspellant5862 2 місяці тому
sounds like the weather in video games is getting quite the upgrade
@MrCastorPastor
@MrCastorPastor 2 місяці тому
Tack!
@littlepomacanthid
@littlepomacanthid 2 місяці тому
Hopefully as this advances, it will become able to predict weather further and further into the future. 20- and 30-day forecasts would be incredibly useful in weather-dependent industries that require planning ahead, like agriculture. If farmers are able to reliably predict first and last frost dates and can see droughts or damaging storms far in advance, it could help improve crop yields/harvest dates/etc.
@piotr.ziolo.
@piotr.ziolo. 2 місяці тому
I'm not sure if it's physically possible. Weather is a chaotic system (just like a double pendulum, for instance), meaning even the slightest change in initial conditions can have a huge impact on the outcome. It means that the precision that you use to represent numbers and even small errors in measurements of model inputs may cause a large error in the end, especially with longer time horizons.
@unfixablegop
@unfixablegop 2 місяці тому
It would have been nice to get an idea how much training data they had, where they got that from and how much processing power went into that. But in any case it's just amazing how all expertise goes out the window and gets easily replaced by neural nets.
@aelfo
@aelfo 2 місяці тому
Imagine the amount of computational power this will free up and make available for other tasks!
@AshLordCurry
@AshLordCurry 2 місяці тому
This is a great and actually useful use of ai. Makes me happy for our future and what else could be done with ai.
@logon-oe6un
@logon-oe6un 2 місяці тому
Stuff like this makes me believe you could make an AI that vastly outperforms fortunetellers on predicting life history from an image of a hand, if you were to get your hands on a labeled dataset representative of general populace. There are probably ethical reasons why we shouldn't, but it would be cool to see if there is a function that could be approximated.
@TheKwiatek
@TheKwiatek 2 місяці тому
I wonder what would be the performance of those predictions if we use the same architecture of NN like for "text to video" like SORA. Temporal coherence and including lots of "irrelevant" data is key here
@ShannonJosephGlomb
@ShannonJosephGlomb 2 місяці тому
I have a feeling that the simulated world is way better tban here ❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️🌎👌
@geekswithfeet9137
@geekswithfeet9137 2 місяці тому
So how long until we can use this to “solve” butterfly effect scenarios and push whether systems around to where it’s needed with minimal effort, such as dialing up or down wind farms?
@greg7633
@greg7633 2 місяці тому
The butterfly effect scenario is a component of chaos theory and can't be solved, only approximated with non-linearly decreasing accuracy with time. Fortunately dialing up and down wind farms are a resolution issue with a relatively short time horizon (not familiar with wind farms, but I'm guessing you don't need more than a day or two of warning?). With that in mind I think the current model can be used, or at the very most a retraining with finer-resolution or localized inference. Good thinking! If you're in this industry let me know if I can help.
@mshonle
@mshonle 2 місяці тому
Have graph neural networks like this been applied to video compression? With their accurate next step prediction it seems like a large pretrained model could describe lots of videos succinctly.
@dibbidydoo4318
@dibbidydoo4318 2 місяці тому
I know that there's a paper that uses diffusion models to compress videos. It is called: 'Extreme Video Compression With Prediction Using Pre-trainded Diffusion Models' it compresses at rates as low as 0.02 bits per pixel.
@vb0t429
@vb0t429 2 місяці тому
I went to a talk by Peter Battaglia a year or so ago where he talked about this system, glad to see it came into fruition!
@Leo_Aqua
@Leo_Aqua 2 місяці тому
It is truly a time to be alive!
@GraveUypo
@GraveUypo 2 місяці тому
will we have weather forecast that is even remotely accurate for as far as the day after tomorrow now? that's game changing.
@user-vadimsirbu
@user-vadimsirbu 2 місяці тому
Now I see who's ' The Stealer ' Good to know
@thepopulargoat6896
@thepopulargoat6896 2 місяці тому
Can it predict unusual weather events, like the formation of hurricanes, so far ahead of time? If it were to simulate a full decade of weather, I'm curious to know how many hurricanes it would predict would occur in that decade. Would it be a reasonable guess? If not, does it have a tendency to underestimate or to overestimate such likelihood?
@feynstein1004
@feynstein1004 2 місяці тому
Can this also be used to predict the economy and stock prices maybe?
@jamescrompton243
@jamescrompton243 2 місяці тому
This sounds like it could be very useful in the oil futures market
@defiant4eva
@defiant4eva 2 місяці тому
Artists “we’re getting replaced by AI”. Meteorologists “Ha, that’ll never happen to us”. 😳😳😳
@beiyongzui
@beiyongzui 2 місяці тому
Nice story dear.
@Gingnose
@Gingnose 2 місяці тому
I would say meteorologists are more in dire situation
@SigFigNewton
@SigFigNewton 2 місяці тому
I still want a human on the TV telling me about the weather. It’s more technical jobs that will be lost
@maythesciencebewithyou
@maythesciencebewithyou 2 місяці тому
Do you think that meterologists calculate the weather by hand? They just tell us what the supercomputers are spitting out.
@defiant4eva
@defiant4eva 2 місяці тому
@@SigFigNewton it would be nice, but never underestimate the ability of a company/studio to look after their own interest first. Having an AI actor reading news and weather reports. You don’t have to pay them, they won’t have to negotiate over contract issues, and no office drama, time off or their actors getting old and needing replacing. Also, it isn’t about you accepting the AI, it is about the next generation and so on
@jeffreybeitel1291
@jeffreybeitel1291 2 місяці тому
I love the content, I always have! But an FYI these 2 minute papers are not quite 2 minutes anymore! hahaha but the papers tho..
@ArtML
@ArtML 2 місяці тому
It is indeed impressive given the size of the network. But it is a bit of question how much of this billion dollar system it is going to replace de-facto. The network of sensors and all the infrastructure and staff for measuring the current state still has to be at place and might represent the much larger portion of expenses for such forecasting.
@pmshadow
@pmshadow 2 місяці тому
Thank you Dr Carol Johnny Ferrier! I need a model to pronounce your name 😂 I am a huge fan from Brazil! :)
@MiDnYTe25
@MiDnYTe25 2 місяці тому
His name's Károly Zsolnai Fehér :)
@dzxtricks
@dzxtricks 2 місяці тому
Considering dolphin-phi with 2.7B parameters can run easily on my midrange phone... This weather prediction is incredibly efficient and maybe can run in small pi system
@stephanieherman2861
@stephanieherman2861 2 місяці тому
I am only commenting today because i had a beer yesterday, every time he said 'it gets even better'
@alextrigger8199
@alextrigger8199 2 місяці тому
And it gets even better - it can predict all of our strategies trying to counter this AI's global war on humanity several weeks ahead of time in just 0.0001 second
@LombaxPieboy16
@LombaxPieboy16 2 місяці тому
Presumably this little AI will improve by leaps and bounds very quickly as well. Having real world models to predict against daily should hopefully supercharge the future learning process?
@clementdato6328
@clementdato6328 2 місяці тому
My first thought is that, it seems the bottleneck is not on the algo but on the data collection. The problem of weather prediction apart from data acquisition requires mostly local information to solve (past data around the region) which is not a hard problem in the line of research of graph NN. But still the computational efficiency is still very amazing.
@catmansion
@catmansion 2 місяці тому
Maybe weather reports will actually start to be accurate soon! I've been waiting for this.
@ntwadumela_jadu9747
@ntwadumela_jadu9747 2 місяці тому
Maybe a video on how to use the models in a notebook?
@warrenarnold
@warrenarnold 2 місяці тому
We have tutorials for such here thr focus is on research
@ntwadumela_jadu9747
@ntwadumela_jadu9747 2 місяці тому
where?@@warrenarnold
@murraybritton6729
@murraybritton6729 2 місяці тому
I think this is the moment when I'm really starting to see what AI take off will be like. This is absolutely insane...
@Chuck.1715
@Chuck.1715 2 місяці тому
I love this, research that exponentially empowers other research. Days where you throw more powerful and more expensive supercomputer on a problem to solve it are gone. Every day you can see comparatively cheap research, turn into a free software update. Update that in return improves performance way faster than anything that is possible with better hardware.
@skywise001
@skywise001 2 місяці тому
They need the data collected by the agencies. Without that their as useful as a newspaper that fired its reporters.
@AustinThomasPhD
@AustinThomasPhD 2 місяці тому
So do all the other forecasting models though? How do you think any of those get data?
@jurusco
@jurusco 2 місяці тому
@@AustinThomasPhD Don't you know you need to turn your PC on before using it? All that process power and it's useless without electricity.
@joshcryer
@joshcryer 2 місяці тому
The "agencies" are hobbyist meteorologists who have their own weather stations (there are some 10k operating for the NWS). What's even wilder is WUnderground has a QUARTER MILLION hobby weather stations in operation (they sell a kit). I bet their forecasts are going to become way more accurate in the coming weeks or months.
@nigel-uno
@nigel-uno 2 місяці тому
You realize the billion dollar systems also need that same data? Your point is moot. This system allows hobbyist meteorologists who can collect the data to have forecasts more accurate than billion dollar systems. Classic ignorant take by someone who hates AI
@suparki123
@suparki123 2 місяці тому
Wow, I literally have a video on the same method they used in their GNN architecture (on this channel). Made it during university and it was an original idea. Could be a coincidence, but I do wonder if I influenced them at all in making this paper.
@P-G-77
@P-G-77 2 місяці тому
THIS... exactly this is the REAL PURPOSES of IA... on this matter and all matter to do best job on our world, to live well... not to TRASH BILLION'S and in the end THE BEST RESULTS... and not only in this specific case. The possibilities are enormous... HUGE. We NEED the help of IA... NEED.
@joshcryer
@joshcryer 2 місяці тому
DeepMind is killing it with protein folding, geometry, materials stuff. We are going to probably achieve absolute knowledge before we achieve absolute understanding. Before AGI even gets here. Pretty insane how analog / neural computing just solves reality.
@MichaelBarry-gz9xl
@MichaelBarry-gz9xl 2 місяці тому
It's digital. Although analog would be far superior albeit at the cost of adaptability. The photonic analogue/digital hybrid processors that are in the R+D stage should be an absolute beast at running neural networks. Might be a decade away though
@gabe_owner
@gabe_owner 2 місяці тому
​@@MichaelBarry-gz9xlI believe he means all these advances utilize a neural/analog paradigm of computation which operates on (virtually) continuous, not discrete, inputs, not that their stuff is not running in a digital environment.
@MichaelBarry-gz9xl
@MichaelBarry-gz9xl 2 місяці тому
​@@gabe_ownerI'm not sure what he meant, I'm not sure what you mean either 😂 it's fully 100% digital, nothing continuous about it, if that's an abstraction, the abstraction exists only in the mind of the person, the models themselves are fully digital at every layer of abstraction. One day we will have analogue models, running on analogue chips (probably photonic) and that would be it's "natural home" so to speak, and that should be incredibly efficient and powerful.
@dgstellario4433
@dgstellario4433 2 місяці тому
if by solving reality you mean proving wrong theorems like the alphageometry does - then why one would need rnns in the first place?😂
@joshcryer
@joshcryer 2 місяці тому
​@@MichaelBarry-gz9xl give it time and the neural networks will be continuous, and more accurate than any discrete approaches. Photonic isn't necessary (and is in fact inefficient as it converts from electrons to photons). It's all about algorithms. And while deterministic the stochastic ones will always win. Retrospectively it's deterministic, but while running, not so much.
@etzabo
@etzabo 2 місяці тому
Wow this actually has some pretty great implications! It seems like it could actually improve people’s lives, unlike the pain AI has created for artists.
@TheJackJulian
@TheJackJulian 2 місяці тому
Wonder if it can detect cloud seeding operations, 'abnormalities' in weather prediction..
@user-if1ly5sn5f
@user-if1ly5sn5f 2 місяці тому
3:14 i have an idea. Instead of just simulating weather, can we input our technology and difference in growth so it can predict and possibly foretell of new technology or help us find them?
@phillipchaboya2798
@phillipchaboya2798 2 місяці тому
I believe this means we are going to find out, if in fact, K > 5c a lot sooner. As the current weather "hot" models predict.
@BhaumikDave
@BhaumikDave 2 місяці тому
Just think what this can do to Stock Market..! 🤯 💥
@projectarduino2295
@projectarduino2295 2 місяці тому
Super cool!
@mumba17
@mumba17 2 місяці тому
It's amazing to see what we can achieve now. However this would never have been possible had these billion dollar stations not collected the amount of data for these predictions. So while it is amazing we still need to actively obtain the data about the weather to run these predictions on.
@MarcosSilva-bb2mj
@MarcosSilva-bb2mj 2 місяці тому
I wish the barometer was a more popular sensor on mobile devices.
@Ken1171Designs
@Ken1171Designs 2 місяці тому
WOW... weather forecast has always been the Holy Grail of predictions. My question is if this would make weather forecast more reliable, or if it just makes the same old (unreliable) predictions faster?
@albertsitoe7340
@albertsitoe7340 2 місяці тому
But how much data does it need? As input in order to get those outputs?
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