Any key takeaways? I have also been through much of his work but I'm not half as smart as I should be haha.

Lindy? What does that mean?

Aaron McKeehan Google The Lindy Effect.

@@TheNeojade Thanks, thats what I needed.

@@IsaacWendt Normal distribution and central tendency are phnomena of mathematics, not of the real world. The real world is stochastic (hence the Lindy effect), random, chaotic, and importantly from the point of view of Taleb's teaching, fat-tailed. Also heteroscedastic. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heteroscedasticity Back when the totalizer took only 85% at the track, i.e. the government plus the Jockey Club got by on 15%, there were many tracks (i.e. betting crowds) where you could make money automatically, given deep pockets, by betting the longest and shortest odds. That's fat tailed events. Today most tracks are taking 17%, so you can only win through discipline, hard work and good judgment. So sad!

They are brain dead from thier Neoliberial, Friedman, Marx university education.

@Michael Auliffe You really got everyone included there haha. Not saying: I agree with you... just that you got a dig in at everyone from the right to left and vice versa! 😄

@@michaelayliffe7238 It's best to switch off your autopilot before you try to return to earth.

Because, being mainly English, they're too polite - or thick.

They don't like him.

he does not speculate

@@danielracovitan9779 sure he does - thats what trading is - he buys things he thinks will go up or down in value, and makes a ton of money because he is way way better at it than almost everyone else

@@danielracovitan9779 At various times he's suggested to keep 80-93% of your assets rock solid safe and to speculate if you wish with the rest.

So you couldn't work it out for yourself.

Guess you are knew here.

That's not hard.

Oh, ha ha.

Underrated comment

Thanks.

Hi, I wanted to comment and would love to enter discussion about this idea with you. I think you need to broaden your thinking in terms of how people chose material for armor manufacturing. Undestanding this, I feel, is what will help you see that statistics simply aims to mitigate the problem coming from v50 that you pointed out. Statistics isn't the failure of v50 as a metric, it's about the conscientious use of v50 as a metric to chose armor material. V50 is a metric to describe stability of different armor materials under stress. But I'm willing to bet it's not the only one used in optimizing choice of material used for armor. Instead, the MBAs (incellectual yet idiot) making the decision of which material they want use linear combinations of different metrics (price, weight, manufacturability, etc. in addition to V50). EM- algorithm provides the scalar weights for those properties. And those linear combinations which surpass the estimated stress of battle prove to be good materials. It is in the decision of the weight (think weighted average) that the tail risks taleb discusses come into the picture (or, rather, don't show up obviously). V50 is not the problem- to fix V50 is wayyyy harder than simply fixing how you consider different properties (price, weight, manufacturability, v50, etc.). In other words, picking what's important to you, the soldier, (perhaps a SEAL team will be willing to sacrifice penetrability for weight, i'm not sure i don't have military background), is where statistics can help. Just guessing is stupid (not efficient), but using statistics and calculus to optimize the choice of linear combinations resulting in the best material for battle is where one needs to also consider tail events. e.g. weight shouldn't be too much of a concern because if you get shot, you're fucked, but if you sweat more or are more tired after battle, you can still recover- most people would be tired over dead). It makes sense in something like fighting. In banking, it's all numbers on a screen. People lose sight of the assumptions they make (it's much easier to rationalize the prospect of dying by bullet wound v.s. weight of armor over the choice to lower interest rates to "nudge" the economy. Thus, we see entire policies (coming out of both parties) which make grave assumptions about what people can fix. It's not always easy to optimize something like battle. People will get shot.

@@HarryPotter-kd3bh My comments concerning the various "Vnn" values ("nn" being the average statistical probability of the armor working -- barring hits on cracks or other such "low-ball" things) were not for manufacturing tests, where V50 is probably the best measure of the protection from a given piece of armor. It is in the presentation to the personnel USING the protected vehicles/bunkers that needs to be a lower value of "nn" (exactly what would have to be determined from battle experience). This value would give the armor USER some idea of what are his odds of staying alive to finish his mission when using various options as to tactics. A V50 value means that his chance of doing this is very poor if he is hit more than once and only 50/50 if he is hit even once; poor odds. In fact, knowing several of these protection level ranges against various enemy weapons would be a great asset to determining what plan to attempt with the best chance of success.

Nathan, That looks like wisdom -- but if Eve had known about labour pains there wouldn't have been any more humans. (Evolution has conveniently given us incredible hormones which make somen forget so, miraculously, most families have more than one child.) You're quite right that we only consider events so that we can continue our thinking on to the consequences -- and of course our possible actions, and reactions, and their consequences. And their consequences... But obviously there has to come a time when we act. If 1001 tanks go into battle against 1000, you probably have almost 2001 crews who expect to be among the roughly 1000 victors. In reality, the morning after will find a few dozen of the winners and a one digit or zero number of the losers. Montgomery started the Battle of Alamein at about two in the morning and went to bed. An hour or so later he was woken up by one of his commanders reporting his horror at the carnage. Montgomery said "Yes. Carry on," and went back to bed.

@@TheDavidlloydjones I remember an article in the most reputed "Popular Mechanics" magazine (nod). An american pilot had just stepped out from the first tests of a Mig 29 and he was asked if the Mig was "on similar foots" with the F16 or... whatever. Answer was simple and Antifragile. "When you go up, you dont want to be even, you want to be The Biggest Gorilla in the Sky". Fat Tony statement, if there is one. (edited for typos)

An odd comparison. He is advising skepticism of knowable cause and effect but not recommending faith. That is almost the opposite of theology.

@@tavom6710 To draw a concrete conclusion from an analogy is to misunderstand the use of an analogy. My point has nothing to do with theology per se. One of many examples where he is a "theologian" should suffice to illustrate the general principle: in 'Antifragile' his many discussions ABOUT medicine are absolutely valid (these are analogous to the 'theologians connections between biblical passages') but he is utterly clueless about medicine itself, that is, he adopts an uncritical and unreflective attitude towards it (this is the 'Bible' for him). In his view we should apply antifragility concepts TO medicine but not question established medicine ITSELF. He talks about suckers in his books. He should add himself to the list.

"To draw a concrete conclusion from an analogy is to misunderstand the use of an analogy." Ancient Greece called and they want their catchphrases back. There have actually been other philosophers since Plato. “utterly clueless about medicine itself” medics are often clueless about medicine itself. Poincare didn’t know much about the weather but his mathematics disabused many climatologist of their hope of predicting it. Your message is a list of non-sequequitors ending with your initial opinion. Antifragile is the only one of the Certo I haven’t read. As far as I can tell you didn’t enjoy but haven’t read any of the others. I will take your remarks as literary criticism rather than philosophical analysis. Thank you for your input. The Black Swan is very good.

Yes, this is first chapter of Consequences of fat tailes

Just read all his books.

Listen to Osho

Ayn Rand is

Post Internet world.

I simplified a search by omitting 'Obama' and I learned of the Nudge Theory book Sunstein wrote in or around 2008, which Cameron borrowed from a decade later. Still doesn't explain the 'bothering' but it's a start, anyone remember their disagreements or criticisms? www.newstatesman.com/politics/economy/2019/05/cass-sunstein-and-rise-and-fall-nudge-theory

@@blackjackreward4456 Also Cameron is a friend of Niall Ferguson, who has talked about antifragility, specifically the concept of a network as opposed to a hierarchy. These ideas originate with Mr Taleb of course, post financial crash.

not to piss on your bonfire but i was expecting smarter comments under an NNT youtube video, and yes i am fun at parties

I'm thinking of the same.

Hi dude it's the dumb Guy Jeff here with 9000 hard core evidence have to nationwide detective

Well if you really want to learn something about the mathematics of what he is talking about, you can read good (modern!) statistical physics/econo-physics textbooks as a basis, while always keeping his main points in mind. I would also recommend reading something on the extreme value theory, which is basically the framework to deal with the distributions that he talks about. This is closely related to large deviation theory, which I know a bit more about. I have got to warn you though, these areas are fascinating, but very dry when you are just starting out. I think most of the principles that he talks about can be followed without writing down a single equation.

Start trading options

I don't think Taleb would make the distinction, but since you do - Nature would be my guess.

There's NO shredder in Internet world.

@@k.h.6991 The bloke is way out of date and not worth listening too.

It was the department of the fittest.

Introduce yourself first.

And most people die today from setting people up for crimes like me Jeff Vanessa future husband and feel sorry for 5 million of you I lived Italian life in NYC and the old Italian wise guys already know the 2000 top people oin charge and you deal with 5hem and criminal charged for fraud and call bkorg need trump has everything. Good luck Ahmed josh big 5 weak ass

It just shows Europeans have no clue about 1/2 the reality. They're So busy dealing with history and tradition they're badly effected by that lifestyle. Unable to see what's arrived and tooo slow to adapt. If you listen you'll go down too.

Its as if you can shred paper in the Internet. I bet he wouldn't even know what Facebook was.

😄😄

She’s smarter than you!

When you talk in riddles and codes all day the Internet is going to expose all your faults. You are what you do. Those secrets all leave deep scares on you. He's already hurt his own brain with all those tasks. He's dropping words and slurring others, etc. He's going to have to talk 10 times faster cause we've already consumed all his videos. He's got no time for this, cause this consumes all his time. We're only just beginning and already he can't handle Internet pace. Mentally, he's already broken. You don't have the option to stop for a drink and a sit down in Internet world.

Trump knows him

@@alfredthepatientxcvi he said explain .

I don't think you are alone. The comments are very impressed, but fail to mention any concrete learnings. It's just a collection of philosophical-probability insights that are not actionable imo

he wraps up at 57 minutes... he doesn't like politicians, he thinks grandmas know more than professors, everybody is wrong, the end

He’s said this work to his advantage as people have to listen harder to understand him. Which makes people switch into active listening mode from passive listening.