What would happen if a nuclear war were to be sparked between Russia and the United States today? Who would survive?
In our most scientifically realistic simulation to date, we show what a nuclear war between Russia and the United States might look like today. It is based on detailed modeling of nuclear targets, missile trajectories, and the effects of blasts, EMPs, and smoke on the climate and food resources.
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See also:
Union of Concerned Scientists: www.ucsusa.org/nuclear-weapons
The International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN): www.icanw.org/
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- BIBLIOGRAPHY -
Here are the resources used in the video. These papers and data sources present the most cutting-edge science we have on nuclear war and its effects:
Nuclear arsenal data:
Hans Kristensen (Federation of American Scientists); The video shows 3,641 of 11,133 US and Russian warheads used, and none from the UK, France, China, India, Pakistan, China, Israel or North Korea.
Nuclear target model:
Prof. Sharon Weiner (American University) & Dr. Moritz Kütt (IFSH Hamburg)
Ballistic missile trajectories calculations:
Prof. Anthony Aguirre (UCSC) & Prof. Tegmark (MIT); In reality, MIRVs of course separate only long after launch.
Electromagnetic pulse modeling:
U.S. Army unclassified report AD-A178230 (1994)
Blast modeling:
Prof. Alex Wellerstein, Stevens Inst. of Technology, https:/www.nukemap.org
Samuel Glasstone and Philip J. Dolan: "The Effects of Nuclear Weapons", published by U.S. Dept. of Defense & Dept. of Energy; Although the video mainly shows ground bursts to simplify visualization, most urban strikes are likely to instead be airbursts to destroy a greater area.
Atmospheric modeling of global smoke spread and lofting:
Dr. Charles G. Bardeen (National Center for Atmospheric Research) assuming 150 megatons of black carbon smoke
Smoke modeling methodology:
Joshua Coupe, Charles G. Bardeen, Alan Robock & Owen B. Toon 2019, J. of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 124, 8522-8543
Owen B. Toon, Charles G. Bardeen, Alan Robock, Lili Zia, Hans Kristensen, Matthew McKinzie, R. Peterson, Cheryl S. Harrison, Nicole.Lovenduski & Richard P. Turco 2019, Science Advances 5: eaay5478
Nuclear winter temperature modeling:.
Alan Robock, Luke Oman & Georgiy L. Stenchikov 2007, J. Of Geophysical Research 112, D13107
Famine modeling:
Lili Xia, Alan Robock, Kim Scherrer, Cheryl Harrison, Benjamin Bodirsky, Isabelle Reindl, Jonas Jägermeyr, Charles Bardeen, Owen B. Toon & Ryan Heneghan 2022, Nature Food, 3, 586-596. www.nature.com/articles/s4301...