1:03:28 The game I was talking about is no longer under NDA, and is called Project Cold War. I’ve been playing it since the first play tests were available, it’s pretty good (for now) feel free to look it up to hear what other people have to say about it.

So... you're welcome at Armored Warfare, Chems! ;)

Incredible attention to detail, quality. Other youtubers uploading battles from Twitch because they don't even want to record a new video on YT, and what you create here are completely different standards. Congratulations, keep it up.

You almost got me to install that game again. But then I remembered what playing 10 bottom tier matches every afternoon after work felt like: Stockholm Syndrome. the dread of knowing the other flank will inevitably collapse while you have to do the wobble wobble cupola snipe ridgeline dance. Oh god, I think my PTSD is flaring up.

in case you are wondering, kajzoo and dakillzor did contribute to this video, but i noticed a lot of people talking about a "claus" person, i don't know where this idea is coming from, but he is not involved with this video at all.

Know you waited a while, but I'm on time.

I am 39 years old, who played alot of games and watched a looot of youtube videos, this , this might be the best articulated, explained and created video on youtube. Congratulations my friend, and as a humble suggestion, you should create more because obviously you are an artist

Look how they have massacred my beloved WoT

23:00 I noticed this with the UDES (t8 medium) and a few other tanks where you'd go to the top gun and despite it having worse accuracy and gunhandling it hits far more consistently. Never knew there was a term for it. 32:50 Also I'd argue that matching up tank types is far more important than matching up skill levels.

I just noticed, that in your video on equipment, at the end, you showed ,,list of things Chems said that turn out to be true", one of the things is WoT will die on 30. November 2023. And this will drop in the same exact date. You have planned it from the beginning, didn't you?

i think the russsian bias came from the time where wot was still only 4-5 nations. Back then for example a tier XI T54 med had a 500mm ring arround the tank. I think things like these fired the russian bias up

To be fair, when QB said they paid 4400 dollars it is more rational to think that he wasnt aware of the Argentinian loop hole than to assume that he intentionally lied to his audience.

-23:08-- sigma value means z-score, not standard deviation, it's basically standard deviation normalized against mean. For example, to get the same distribution (identically looking curve) for 0.2 and 0.4 accuracy values, the standard deviation for 0.4 has to be higher to compensate for the higher mean.- Edit: I was wrong. The above applies to damage calculation, not to shot distribution. Still, the shot spread definitely does NOT follow normal distribution, as mention by Overlord_Prime in his document. And term "sigma" is used because it is established in WoWs.

I like how looking at the timestamps in the description, there is an entire section dedicated to the grille 15.

The unicum of unicums. A person who taught many, strikes again. Definitely the best wot content creator.

44:05 Quite frankly, this reminds me of something: When Apple introduced random music selection in their music player, it was truly random. That means that the same song can come again right after it was played. People reacted negatively and said this isn't random. So Apple made their random selection less random by preventing the same song to be played for a few songs and people reacted to it positively AND though it's more random.

It is looking so good! Fr looks better than most WoT official videos.

HE CAME BACK WITH THE MILK

2 points from a WOT beta veteran. 1. Re evaluate the game stats from WHEN the "RU is OP" claim was coined, ie. the early days when there were only 3-4 nations.. 2. Evaluate the RU RNG values for bouncing enemy fire or enemy shots doing nothing, critical damage received vs dealt. camo and spotting ratings. Essentially look into the play by play bias, not the total stats. Bonus, show the stats before and after the Type 59 was introduced, then after it was nerfed. Super bonus, look at when the Bat Chat was added.... those days caused many broken keyboards. Great vid.

40:26 I didn't actually know there was a *rotation* of maps. I mean, I guess I had heard that somewhere, but I didn't realize I was being cycled through the same set of maps on purpose.

How about: 1. Gather up some money as group 2. Buy the game from WG 3. Make some changes = Game good again!😲

Claus will be 90 in a retirement home trapped in his feedback loop ranting on Soviet bias because he didn't pen a 279e one time.

Thanks for this Analysis. Very nice to watch this kind of work. If you need some "more" casual Data (replays) for any further Analysis, i have around 5500 replays from July 21 till today.

This looks more like an academic paper than an analysis of the mechanics of a game. Amazing analysis and statistical proficiency! Hats off for this sir!!! And this is coming from someone with the account since 2012 that has played through a lot of periods and rage quit for years at one point:)) Amazing research!

I have never seen any WOT CC who have put so much dedication to the content like you, Chems. Good job!

You were always the best, chems, nobody ever came close. You define art, and it defines you.

Something i'd like to add to add to the whole booster myth. I don't play WoT but i know similar situations from War Thunder. Once you activate one of those really big boosters, which an f2p player will rarely get, it almost seems like the entire enemy team knows about it and just comes after you exclusively. And while i did often have this experience, it's just that this situation isn't exclusive to the times where you use a booster. I think that the biggest problem with boosters is the promised reward. Let's say you use a 500% booster. Really big payout, especially if you do well that game. But (in the case of WT) since it only lasts one game, you become hyperfocused on maximizing your profit. This has you trying to perform pretty much every action that gives you currency as much as possible, like killing players. But you become so focused on hunting down players and killing them as fast as possible, that you will most likely not see the enemy player who just pulled up behind you. And once the round is over, you're frustrated because, even with the booster, you barely made anything. And all of that, just because you didn't play optimally, but decided to maximize your payout.

I would be more interested in Kisly's patent - where good players get their RNG nerfed when engaging against bad players and vice versa to level the gap in skill somewhat in order to prevent bad players from being discouraged and rage quitting WoT forever, or the theory that your RNG is set at the start of the battle which results in games where you hit all your shots, even poorly aimed ones, and the contrary situation where you keep missing from 5 meters or bouncing 100% pen shots.

Easily one of the Top 3 best videos you’ve ever made. - Tbh you’re the reason I started my WoT channel to (eventually) create content on the Match maker, Maps, tank designs, and other discussion topics. It’s so refreshing to see that there are people with solid critical thinking skills creating content in this largely NPC player base.

0:56:57 Premium Store Exploit 🔥🔥🔥

love your videos. very informative. always curious what your next video will be about. good luck.

1:01:30 Fellow WoTB player here. Seeing your obj 780 argument makes me think of the collector tank system we have here. There was a time when tanks like the T-22 medium was considered a broken tank and it was sold for as high as 22.5k gold. After all these years, instead of not getting your gold's entire worth after buying the tank (for all premiums, you never do), you at least get 7.5k gold when you sell it. The opposite can be said as well because of the crate system we have (WHICH VERY, VERY RNG HEAVY). Thanks to the Mystery Boxes that we get annually, people can get away with spending 500-42.5k gold (each price tag gives you certain amount of crates) with a 5% chance to give you a mystery certificate, which is guaranteed to give you a tank. But the tank can range between T5-10 and can be a premium or collector. By a stroke of luck (which adds to the amount of randomness World of Whatever games have) I managed to get 3 tier 10 collectors; The Badger, T95e6 and T-22 medium and a T9 collector, the Obj 752 for only 4.5k gold that I grinded for free just because I got that 5% drop chance four times within the 13 chances I had. Remember, if you feel like you’re out of luck; just take a break and continue if you want. There’s no point raging in this game because it won’t change how the game works (That Streamer who injured himself in chem's video)

This surely is going to be one of the best videos in the history of world of tanks.

One thing id like to add to the grille thing: -the grille has abbismal shell velocity on ap and heat, and the way aiming works makes it so if youre leading a target, then according to the game youre just aiming further away than where the target will be, therefore the shell will look like it misses by alot, when in reality it may not deviate by that much, but the arch of the low velocity shell cause it to go further away than where you wanted to aim (i hope what i said is understandable, it would be better if i could draw or smth).

I love when Chems makes valuable educational video that gives you more insight about Life than the game "masked" as a World of Tanks video. Thanks for being real Chems kuddos to you stay real as always!

the winsxwn8xdamage is a very poorly chosen metric. Wn8 already includes damage and win rates featured prominently in its equation. wn8 is modified to explicitly shape its expectations of performance on the actual outcomes of games. It has to support your question. Kind of like saying the scale is correct because it measures your weight as the same amount as a machine that is based on the readout of the scale to verify its correctness. It's right because you have defined it as correct. (I was a contributor to wn8 btw, so am familiar with the subject for what that is worth.)

I'm not claiming that mercy shots are real, however part of the argument for them is that it's concealed in a far more complex and sinister manner. It's not just damage that you lowroll, it's also penetration rolls AND accuracy rolls. The claim is that first you are more likely to miss, second that you are less likely to pen and third that you are less likely to roll high. Looking at just the damage doesn't fully cover the mercy shot claim.

One thing you forgot about is the massive advantage p2w mechanics give, that being having access to the best tanks in the game just by default having better pen/ shell velocity having better crews better equipment directives and so on. Those base stat advantages in a largely rng based game make for a massively different gameplay experience then any non 100k games free to play player could ever experience. Other then that great vid

I mean, okay. The maths do math. Still, when your aiming circle doesn't shrink despite having stood still for a long time, you're tracked twice in a row multiple times, you get uptiered many times in a row despite taking continuous Ls, your WR keeps plummeting but you are always bottom tier... can you really blame people for questioning the validity of the game?

Chems the mercy shot part, you didn’t add that HE rounds can also do much less then the shots average damage. Makes sense the average damage is a bit lower. I agree, with your points and am trying to add to it. I don’t know if you only took values from ap or if you took average shot damage.

Me when Chems about to release a new video:

Great Video! I like the development of your channel and your personality as it is actually pleasan to watch - unlike playing the game itself. It seems that you are now just moderately trolling instead of being the incarnation of chaos and i actually like it. Ps: This (36:26) screenshot of the skin is kinda epic, isn't it?

I witnessed first hand that rng can change. I was above average until i got into an "argument" with an in game mod (back in the day where you could shoot em for gold for the first time). After that day my shots simply missed, low rolls were the normal, damage blocked by armor was rare, matchmaking was basically always lowest tier. I must note that clanwars were unafected, there the rng was normal. I stopped playing long time ago. The account is still active so you can test if you want, maybe it will surprise you.

I think the "soviet bias" myth came from old times, when accuracy was good, and you could have hit shots while moving on your extremely innacurate IS-3 or KV-1s

Chems is like playboi carti, everyone wants him to drop, he denies, and comes with a huge comeback once in a while.

The title alone is gonna piss off a lot of EU forum users

@chems is there a mod that will record the information of my shot pattern? like you show @ 23:46

Dear Chems, please send the light of truth to illuminate us! The part of the video that you show and change the mean and standard deviation is pretty awesome. What software are you using for that ? Tks !!

I love how chems at the same time makes some of the lowest effort and highest effort wot videos 😂

Highly respect the effort that went into this, and honestly, this stuff makes tons of sense - WG always has been about money, and to make money you need playerbase retention, especially when it comes to players that are rich or have at least SOME disposable income.

yo chems, just fyi, the 3d skin you've made for the kpz 07 p(e) has some kind of texture issue, if i get too close to the barrel, my MoE fades away, this problem doesnt persist with any other of the skins i've downloaded from your page, so i just wanted to let you know, and maybe know how to fix it myself if needed

bro, i can't even describe how much i respect you after that video. I have no words..., really. You have got new watcher and new subscribe right now, and also i will share this video if i find opportunity to do this. Love to you

My god this has been such a banger! So well written and perfectly explained , with plenty of proof to back it up with. We really appreciate all the effort that you've put into this , and i truly hope this gets more recognition. W video chems

36:45 "shadow nerfs" are just people getting used to fighting those tanks and learning their weaknesses which makes them lose their "element of suprise"

As you look quite good in statistics I have a question: I have several rather similar tanks, so similar in fact that they can be defined as identical (Mutz & Pz58 for example). I played both for around 900 matches. Strangely, I have, for example, 52% WR in the one and 47% in the other. How can this be explained? I would expected that the WR is more or less the same. Is the sample too small? Or is the player's influence in the outcome of a match lower than we expected? I have seen this phenomenom on other accounts as well. And for some tanks it is also identifiable in the game data...

I use to be a clan Fugitives long ago and one of the leaders was on the wot website and wot posted a page pretty much saying that bad players get a little bit better rng. Another member log in and saw it but the page was taken down pretty quickly. It was talked about for a while in the clan. No one was surprised cause we kind of already new. I can normally call a game based on what rng is doing in the first 2-3 minutes of play. I have a 99.8 percent accuracy in calling a game based on that. I also normally know whats going to happen. ie what module is going to get damage. Its like clock work. When you take a well aim shot into the ass end of a tank that might have 55mm armor with a gun that is 250mm pen on the worst shot bounces or my fav crit hit with no damage when it matter and it happens way to many times its either rigged or the mechanic is so broken that wg refuses to fix it.

As a WoT Player who took statisics in Uni last semester, this video is a damn gem!

I swear if this is a troll, like an hour long compilation of Claus Kellerman, then Im gonna loose it.

This is such a good video. I will rewatch it in the future, like your other videos, but it does suck to see most of those theories being debunked and that the problem lies within ourselves (and with the op premiums lol), even though we all knew in the back of our head that those theories were, well, conpiracies.

This video is legendary. Well explained, well visualized, and well thought out. well done. :D

Went in for wargaming ramble, left with a life lesson. What a legend, love the vids. Please keep making them. I'll listen to anything, as long as it is by chems.

23:40 the term sigma also comes from an actual “named” value World of Warships uses which I’ve noticed also started being used for WOT to describe standard deviation. For example the Japanese ships tend toactively have better sigma values than the other nations

Point of clarification. A statistical test comparing two means of continuous variables with a presumption of normality is called the student's t-test. A null hypothesis is a component of the scientific method where you generate a falsifiable hypothesis assuming that your test will be negative (null hypothesis: "There is no difference in mean shot distribution between two accounts")

Quick note on the Shadow nerfs. I think that the statistics (as win rate, wn8 and so on) can get worse a while after the tank is released. Why? Because casuals are continuing to play those tanks. I bet that the strongest of players jump into those tanks on release to get aces and 3 mark them as soon as possible and they move on, therefore they increase the high end of statistics on release, leaving average and weak players with those tanks a month or so after.

This video is undoubtedly the greatest video you have made made and is a must watch for ALL WOT players. Your hard work will pay off. This video will reach over a million views, guaranteed

the time and effort put into this is something that other wot creators (and just creators in general) cant even fucking FATHOM. gorgeous work

What information does the support request from you if you want to change your place of residence? When you change your place of residence, kan you still play on the eu server? Can you still place your place of residence back?

In summary: World of Tanks isn't rigged. The problems are much deeper than that.

This is probably the most well made video essay about WOT I've ever seen, chems always delivers

I have never played the Grille so the bloom stats were very interesting to see

Shadownerf был бы мифом, если бы о нем сами разработчики из Wargaming бы не проговорилась в своих официальных постах на форуме. "МОЙ БЕДНЫЙ КВ-5" (просто я люблю КВ-5) и другие. П.С. Ну и понимая уровень здешней аудитории добавлю. У РАЗРАБОТЧИКОВ спрашивали на форуме: "А почему с патчем Х.ХХ броня конкретного танка стала тоньше (модель в клиенте изменилась, очень легко отследить) (мой бедный КВ-5, до нерфа еще) в тех-то местах, а в ОФИЦИАЛЬНЫХ PATHNOTES об этом ни слова. Но это не shadownerf - это другое. А некоторые разрабы, просто dawn.

Strong video! Ones mindset is the most important indeed. The reason I stopped playing, a health issue, it over times triggered too many negative emotions (frustration, anger, helplessness, uselessness). Thus the enjoyment started degrading, till I recognized the above had commonalities with struggles one can go through in real life: depression.

on EU 15-3 Result is SO common and most of my looses are that result

Great video. You really dug into the theories. But man do I wish WG would make MM +/-1. I'm so tired of working on stock tech tree tier 8s and getting throw into endless Tier X matches. Feels like the match is already decided when your armor can't do squat against them spamming gold and yours wont punch their tanks.

I don't care what anyone says, there is Russian bias, and the game is rigged. Every game company does this (I know because I'm a game developer). They do it because it's proven time and time again make money, and get people to pay money. Ever notice when you're a winning streak, suddenly you get a bunch of tomatoes on your team, and you start hitting low on rolls consistently? It happens too consistently to be random, the pattern is there. It's easy enough to tweak this so people even looking for it have difficulty seeing it, and intelligent people, like Chems, are even easier to trick and manipulate, because if you tweak the ratios just right, you can hide it from people who only care about digging into the "facts" and "statistics". An example of this, is when he almost finds the truth of winning ratios at 4:00 mark, then asys, well.. that's also in line with how many tanks there are, and USSR has more, so naturally they're going to win more.. Well no, that's a logical fallacy and one many intelligent people like to bank on, which makes it easy to manipulate.. The reason why USSR has the most tanks, is because they are the easiest to win with, thus they make more tanks to sell in the USSR tree, USA being second because in Russia they think there is a USA bias (which there is to some degree). Germany and UK also get 3rd and 4th because those are also 2 very famous and important parts of the time frame, and they've been out longer than any other tech tree. That's not to say other nations don't have great tanks, they do. However, I still remember when I was first playing.. I played for a year and still "sucked" at the game. I was playing Germany. I then switched to Russian tanks, and my win rate sky rocketed from 30% to 70%, because the tanks were just that much easier to play. Things have since changed from 7 years ago though, a lot less new players, a lot more knowledgeable players, gold ammo now being accessible by silver, and other contributing factors to bring even in the bias and easy mode of USSR tanks into line, they are still easily, the most free win. Is WoT Rigged? of course it is.. EVERY multiplayer game today is rigged.. They will throw in a few extra terrible players on your team and stack teams slightly just enough to make a slight difference, but not enough to be in your face obvious, just enough to get you invested and upset to want to throw money or feel engaged, without making you quit. That's the sweet spot every game company goes for. From COD, to WoT, to League of Legends. It is beatable because its not jacked up to 110%, very good players can still overcome this to some degree, and its usually the very good players who will vouch it doesn't exist, while other sheep insist they must know what they're talking about because they're good players, thus, the perfect manipulation happens. Game companies have literally spent millions in researching manipulation like this, and it's become such a norm in the game industry nobody even thinks about it, they just do it, because it works, and they've figured out how to manipulate the players so completely while doing it.

Hey chems congrats to 100k subs and also i have a question for you on this topic. Lets say you perfectly know where a tank is in a bush for example but they are not spotted. I noticed if they arent spotted you probably wont hit them but if they are you probably will. idk if this is really true but this has happened to me multiple multiple times when i saw someone but they got unspotted or how u say it i shot them : no hit they got spotted and they stood still i shot and boom hit them like i dont know if this is true or not but i think its interesting

Guys, how can I like this vid more than once? @chems you did more for educating the population on statistics than the universities!

As someone who has played WoTs for 10-11 years, thank you for opening my eyes. I've definitely felt like World of Tanks was rigged at times. I will definitely feel like it is rigged at times in the future, but then I will remember this video. Thank you.

Brilliant video! Btw, what software/website was used at 18:38 ?

I remember there was an article on how WOT made the average damage go down when your win rate goes up at around 2016. The Author used two different accounts with different win rates and proved it in custom battles. I tried to find the original article. But no luck.

After 12 years of playing I can say that the game IS manipulated and it has gotten worse... there is a lot of video evidence on the Internet, direct shots that do not hit the target, shots that hit directly and that come from positions where THERE ARE NO TANKS... etc... Remember, it is a business and an increasingly ambitious one.

People started to notice something is way off in rng hits and misses years ago, including me - premium account, weeks/months of inactivity, playing in squad. It is well known to people who played from beta and before.

У нас это называют год мод. Когда танк ваншот, то он отражает один случайный снаряд, когда у того есть хотя бы минимальная возможность полететь в другое место. П.С. Я имею ввиду не то, когда ты не добил танк из-за урона, а то, что ты не попадешь в танк, который только что стал ваншотом. П.П.С. Ну и в этом несомненно крутом видеоразборе (который был сделан в России примерно 10 лет назад) именно этот момент и не учитывается.

You missed the cursed tanks myth, or is there a myth like that? I always use it on my tanks. If i have two clone tanks, one gets 55% winrate and one stays at 20% for the same amount of games played. I call one of them my cursed tank :D

as a wargaming hater, I dont believe any rig topics. People cry when they encounter unlucky thing, but dont even react when they get lucky. So their mind only stores unlucky moments.

Very good piece. Time flew with so much different topics covered. Glad some of that "myths" got squished perfectly. Funny thing is: I took almost a year off in 2021 to 2022 because the game fucked me up so much. Well, not the game but the Matchmaking. Since then I count all my random battles played (no platoon and only randoms) to see whether the MM treats me fairly, meaning whether the matchmaking roughly evens out top tier to low tier battles... Still gathering data, maybe you are interested. I would give it to you.

Very good video. One aspect that i would still have loved to seen touched is map bans. I have banned fjords ever since map bans are a thing and have unbanned it 7 times since then. I have also then played on fjords every single one of these seven times within three matches of unbanning it. Since its a small sample size it doesnt hold that much meaning but it would be an interesting topic to see investigated.

Absolutely excellent video Chems! Your portion on the Grille's accuracy and bloom is something everyone needs to see. My tiny little UKposts channel gets zero attention in comparison, but I've tried to explain the hard stats vs soft stats. Nice to see all the work you've done to show hard data over large sample sizes. Thanks for all the effort and dedication I know went into this. Had to take a lot.

I think russian bias can be explained by different design philosophies. German tanks are usually big boxy blocks, you just have to load gold to pen. Russian tanks often smaller, have more armour on the side and plates are well angeled, you actually have to hit the weakspot to pen. Like for example obj 257 or Lt 420 and E75 or HWK.

A good video. One element I would be interested in is people’s win loss ratio which from the very small research I’ve done is always a sin wave. I can’t factor why that would be the case without external factors other than skill would flatten it some.

I have 1 notice about wr. When i have losing streak, i can play alone, with friend or 2. Im great, they are better, but despite that we are losing all sides in no time. So if i get 30-40%wr at day 1 the very next day i get 65-85%, and i can play reckless, i will get those 65+. I wrote to forum few times "i will get unicum wr tomorrow" and it was confirmed by stats.

At what point will people realize that Wargaming is making op premiums because the playerbase refuses to play balanced premiums

The simple fact that i stopped playing WoT like 2 years ago but this video helped me combat my friends "bias" beliefs from War Thunder is just so funny (like the Booster MM or CCMM), also amazing video, felt like watching a documentary lmao, great job chems

If you spawn on south of Lakeville, take your light tank (ELC or something with great camo) straight up the middle road and park in the bushes. You should be able to spot everything without being spotted.

I haven't played this game in probably ~4 years now? And I've never watched any of your videos, or even heard of your channel before, but for some reason, this video just really sucked me in, and I ended up watching the whole hour of it. Great work!

30:31 This was the frustration with making a 50 minute video about the matchmaker, and having people use this as a reason of "plausible deniability." It's just impossible to prove certain things about it, since it doesn't have trackable API to my knowledge, unless something like the tomato,gg mod can track the frequency of every tank in every single battle people have. Otherwise, things will forever remain a mystery (like whether WG makes one team first, then a team to """match""" or if it makes both at the same time). 56:04 hahaha there the mod. Fun fact, I actually told him to do "The dumbest mod I've ever used" or something similar, but he used that instead...

Classic QB: Acting all baffled and mocking others for content how they spend their money. Hasnt spent a single penny in over a decade to update his twitch or youtube channels overlay, dono/sub/bit alerts, sound alerts, intro/outro and emotes.

I only noticed really bad teams... Losing 15 games per day for 2 months and 0 wins... That's what made me to quit game completely. I did miss, hit, bouce, ammo racked, got ammo racked and all that was fair actually. But around 100 lose streak was really bashing and I'm not sure it was even possible until actually happened.

Lately I did my VK 28.01 3 MOE with 2821 WN8, but 24.3% win ratio. WN8 seems low because winrate makes the calculation too. So my team offered very little assisting, and I need to do 1500+ dmg to achieve this. I do think it"s not my problem, because on my other account with the same tank I have winrate of 78% in 50 battles, but the matchmaking. ELO mechanics really needs to be improved!!!

took you long enough, half-expected a proper mirny video out of this i grinded my ass out for obsidian in 2018, i saw 2 dead, lifeless bodies floating down the river