Interview from 2005, so even from before the financial crisis. It is almost a piece of history, but a great lecture on the state of our civilization and its challenges. Would be nice to have a repeat of the interview now, 15 years later in a much more chaotic world.

I like how he repeats the question back to her, its a great conversational tactic to both show engagement and collect thought on the question at hand,

I'm just relieved to hear someone talking who isn't an evil sociopath.

He’s a brilliant man. And an excellent communicator.

Listening to this here in France in 2022 - the pandemic still lingering - living through our 4rth heat wave - with the longest drought we've ever had - and facing an uncertain winter given that we can no longer rely on Russian gas. Even though France has nuclear plants, we are contemplating re-opening some coal plants "temporarily" to make up for the expected energy short-falls this coming winter since we will not likely be able to re-fill our gas reserves. The problems he outined which he thought would become increasingly visible over the 21st century is now becoming much more visible, and we're not even quarter of the way in the 21st century. I'm 65, and thought that the worst to come would be long after I'm gone. It seems that I am very likely wrong.

Thus spoke Joseph Tainter !

I can't imagine how anybody could disagree with Tainter's overall thesis. I've been asking his opponents for years to give an example of any change the American government ever made in the interest of resolving any problem, which DIDN'T thereby lead to to creation of at least two newer forms of complexity-increasing problems. So far, no answers. The increase in aggregate complexity gives all appearance of inevitability. I'm old enough to remember a time when it was permissible to drive without insurance. Nowadays you have to have it, and having insurance means an insurance company that more than likely sells your information to the highest bidder, etc, etc.

I envy his calmness, I would be panicking if I studied this topic and came to such conclusion.

"It's difficult to know what our descendants will need." I'd say fruit and nut trees.

The volume is very low. I'm sorry to post a negative comment, but I can't help noticing the waste: organizing an interesting talk with a great scholar, recording it and then publishing it with an inadequate audio! To overcome this problem, I recommend to listen to the video with earphones, because Prof. Tainter's exposition is clear and the subject is very interesting.

Appreciate the insightful analysis!

Life expectancy is in decline in the U.S. and there are low tech cultures across the world who’s members typically live into their 90’s. Complexity comes with health cost

Very intriguing discussion, watched in August 2022! Thank you

Thank you Sir-

Amazing.

“ In valor there is hope “- Tacitus

This is wonderful in so many ways, but, trying to be concise, I wish you would give even more attention to "minimalism", "degrowth", and "decentralizaion" as well as the arts' ability to change a society's paradigm, e.g. its idea of what a "good life" is. You might also find it useful to look at "Wedge's Paradigm" and "The Decentralist Manifesto" as presented by Frank's School.

I heard somewhere that one of the major contributing factors of Easter Island's trees being cut down was to use them as rollers to move those hideous statues around from where they were carved to the shore and the reason why some of them were knocked over was because, they got angry at the God statues for not supplying them with more trees I guess?

Those spoke Joseph Tainter !

I like Prof. Tainter's organizational and communicative skills, and his multi-disciplinary, big-picture approach - similar to Jared Diamond. And I agree with his values, especially as he is a professor talking about the importance of education for critical thinking, collaborative problem solving. But the institutionally sanctioned safety and privilege of his position also appears to blind him to the salience of the dark side of human nature, particularly how dark-triad personality behavior patterns become more salient in complex hierarchies. I would argue there is more than mere correlation between non-empathetic behavior and those that game the institutions even as they build them ... examples being 'Manufacturing Consent' in the West (Chomsky and Herman), 'Invented Traditions' in the Far East (Vlastos). In this respect, his belief that rationality (and he appears to be focussing on STEM fixes), is a bit like a slightly more worried Steven 'Pangloss' Pinker. The word 'moral' does not appear until 35:00 .... and what little moral outrage comes at 36:00 is very thin and confined to a few politicians, especially when compared to the likes of Chris Hedges, Naomi Klein, Noam Chomsky, Cornel West, Lee Camp, Abby Martin, Jimmy Dore, etc. Though this interview was from over 15 years ago, just as a thought experiment ... how much of this current pandemic is fake, how much is planned, or how much is gamed so as to suck up wealth from bottom up ... put the burden on the working class while CEOs at Big Pharma, GAFA, etc. are raking in healthy profits? Scientists on the corporate nation-state payroll have mortgages to pay, just like their counterparts at DuPont, Monsanto, the military industrial complex, Big Agra, and Big Tobacco ... and are not any more above the temptations of perverse incentives than a grocery store clerk. Just take a look at the average salary of Big Pharma CEOs and the special vaccine laws protecting their corporate bottom lines from laws designed to protect basic human rights. What is missing from this analysis is the moral decay and self-absorbed decadence that is always latent, but emerges unrepentant and every bit as salient as ammoral systemic failure of complex hierarchies. Not once, did he (or to be fair the Western media or here in Japan) mention history's largest worker's strike going on right now in India - and this is clearly a moral problem, not a systemic energy logistics problem. Prof. Tainter has a logical mind, but is rather naive about the conscious inclusion of a stronger moral element to his analysis. I don't disagree with what he says, but am a bit disappointed in what he doesn't say. At the end of the day, he comes across as putting as much weight on worrying about his retirement benefits as on how many are profiting off of an opioid pandemic, the outsourcing of a military empire, the prison for profit system, and profiting from mass unemployment and homelessness.

Nothing lasts forever. That includes civilisations and empires. One thing all empires have in common. All empires believe themselves to be immortal, that this empire, our particular empire is immune from what has happened to all others. And then the empire falls like all its predecessors.

What you need for a healthy civilization: 1. Fealty towards truth, i.e. towards an understanding of what actually is. Without this, we can't see dangers and walk right into them. Similarly, without an understanding of what is, we lack insight into the consequences of our own actions. 2. Love. All creatures would know security when all creatures loved all creatures. And we have the capacity to love all creatures: anyone who loves animals can attest to that. But what is it that destroys love? Please refer to number 1. You have to be attentive to those things that undermine love and create conflict, and once you've been attentive, you will discover that it is ego, which is to say that entity, 'the me', that runs on desire and fear, that destroys love. 3. Meditation. This really is part of number 1 and 2. Meditation is being aware of what is, from moment to moment, both within and without. It is only through meditation that an understanding of what is can arrise; it is only through observation, seeing what is, understanding, that love can arise. And with love there is peace. Oh look - Truth, Love, Meditation, Peace. Sound familiar? It is familiar. It relates to that human universal which we have lost, which has become pertrified, meaningless - we call it religion, but we don't know what it is anymore. It certainly isn't a matter of mere belief, but perhaps we have to destroy ourselves in order to see the utter worthlessness of all beliefs, all opinions - those things that prevent us from finding solutions and saving the Earth. That's because the first and final belief, the original sin, is I. When that belief is broken, and the 'I' is silent, who are you? You are not different from God. "Be still and know that I am God"

Very interesting take on the Byzantines starting from 43:05. In America, the tax code alone is 70,000 pages long. Complexity leads to stagnation and corruption.

When habitats are destroyed, civilizations not only collapse, species go extinct. We are in the middle of such a horrible collapse of biodiversity, habitat, and the species that depend on that habitat, including the human species. This is driven by the exponential effects of climate change, which is right now a existential threat to all life on Earth. We have maybe 5-10 years to massively turn it around...but it is doubtful we will. People are broken, have lost their connection to Nature and to each other, and have descended to greed, wannabe-ism, selfishness, narcissism, and sociopathy. Humanity is finished and soon.

As far as cutting down trees, don’t we plant new trees to replace the ones cut down?

Informal systems is part of complexity, more complex more cost

Pulling down statues is a fact of war. You pull down your enemies accomplishments 43:50

Hundreds of years of sustainable back in Hamurabi's day, 2600BC. Forgiveness of debt in times of disaster. Michael Hudson's book is very readable

A more recent interview or conversation took place on the Great Simplification potcast by Mr. Nate Hagens in ca 2023. FYI

I felt a lot better when I gave up hope...

Interesting interview, but in practice what do I do as an individual?

Conclusion: We're totally phucked. Solution: Get to a safe place and learn to take care of yourselves.

I came up with this expression in Latin long ago , Cedeo timor. Cedeo : Being in an inferior position Timor, Timet : Fear Which makes it The fear of being in an inferior position. When globalist cabals faced the inevitable fate of 'volunteer collapse' simply just out of the fear of being in this venerable situation they comforted their feared hearts and their people's with delusion of " The great reset" . If thou gaze into the abyss for long the abyss shall gaze back at thee. Frederick Wilhelm Niche They have no choice but volunteer collapse as of its fear they came with the delusional thoughts of "The great reset" ... and there is no abyss darker than fear .

“So many, who must individually accept the cost of the transition, are unaware that it’s coming.” …part of a response to the question regarding the quality of a transition from fossil fuels. “will it be graceful?” I really like this presentation, but when considering the initial moments of any change I am mindful of a festering sense of resentment born out of income inequality, a challenged sense of entitlement and it’s accompanying complacency, a growing disillusionment fed by media images and marketing of a beautiful life fewer and fewer people will experience, the exhaustion of the “low hanging fruit” energy sources and resources(poor EROI) and overpopulation/consumption and I very strongly feel- the transition will be far from graceful. I’m not a far reich’ anti-vax ammo-sexual racist flatearth antiscience long gun stroking, Nazi prepper longing for the simplicity of the ante-bellum plantation. I’m thinking our future has already been poisoned by a well earned mistrust of collectivist solutions- by the incompetence and corruption of those who we laughably call our leaders. I love the intelligence I see here. But all I see is darkness.

Renewable energy can only work if a) we accept a lower standard of living and b) the economy can never grow. Unfortunately no governments are going to accept this and neither are flat earth economists but we go there or we go to "endless war" in fighting the laws of thermodynamics themselves in a misplaced delusion of civilisational immortality of the way we do things now. Not even environ,mentalists appreciate the limits to growth, hoping that with a different mix of energy sources we can continue BAU. This is a dangerous optimism which will end in xenophobia, paranoia, scape goating, hissy fits by spoilt brats with nuclear weapons.

Unintentional ASMR

Our energy usage curve is currently exponential so all the new sources of energy we are currently developing are just backfilling the fossil fuels that cannot quite keep up.

As part of my studies about the collapse of previous civilisations I have found Dr Tainter's work fascinating. I will invite him to be our guest on Nature Bats Last on PRN.FM He's the perfect guest for our show in many respects ( Hopium notwithstanding). This presentation was recorded in 2005, it will be fascinating to know how he feels about 'renewables' now and how 450 nuclear power station melt downs and 1200 spent fuel pool fires will fit into his analysis. kevinhester.live/2017/12/07/how-far-over-the-climate-precipice-are-we/

Sir, can you ponder on Sanathana Dharma as a solution? Please have a free mind to examine this aspect.

dang the volume is too low

If we had followed that early promise of nuclear energy as a source too cheap to meter we would be covered today and into the future. As it is our civilization is in terrible danger of collapse. Socialized nuclear is still our best bet to survive.

We will all die, he is afraid to say that. We are on the verge of extinction.

Life expectancy is dictated by availability of quality nutrition.

I don’t know about you, but I’m ready for the forever purge

Don't understand why he says we can't know what kind of Earth future people will need. Clearly, an Earth devoid of clean and abundant resources leaves no room for ANY choices.

The hydrogen economy is based on electricity, i.e. plasma. Plasma is far more energy dense and flexible. Further, fossil fuels see their hydrogen content burned, with carbon being sent aloft. Just get hydrogen directly, without the collateral damage.

Oh I would have killed to have him as an educator in college ...

44:32 Did anyone else hear They Might Be Giants at this point? No? Just me then...

how do you spell the name of the African group he mentioned? "ik?" Ikt?" Ick?"

Mr. Tainter's analysis of the Ik people is incorrect and promotes an unfair denouncement of their culture. His assessment is based on Colin Turnbull's controversial research published in 1972 in "The Mountain People". That research was done during an especially difficult famine, not long after they had been forcibly removed from their traditional hunting and farming lands, and forced into an arbitrary and confined region. Mr.Tainter's argument that societal collapse can lead to inhumane conditions is undoubtably correct. However, what the Ik endured, if Mr. Turnbull's ethnography is to be believed, was not so much a collapse as a forced, temporary adaptation. The Ik did not disappear, they are not an atomized society, nor a debased culture. Once the Ik adjusted and recovered, sharing, child care and community cooperation returned; so much so that a member of the Ik people was elected to the Ugandan Parliament in 2016. In archeology as in all the soft sciences we must publish cautiously, double check our sources, and never forget that guesswork will always be a part of the equation.

Playing out in real life right now 😮

modern nuclear power plants are safe, self-disposing of waste, aND they come in many sizes, including in sizes suitable for a small grpoup of hoses or a commercial block or aa hospital, school, etc. Freeing many people from a central collapse or the collapse of the grid.

39:10 Solar improvements FTW

Can't hear

We are going to pay the price for gas and oil on the backside. And we will pay dearly.

The comments about the Ik people have been called into question.

Colonization never seems to be fair

But it wasn't the Dark Ages in England when Rome left they actually had quite a good culture happening there as new discoveries are showing

This.

20k views...most people are just not concerned... except with their own selfish longing.

ChatGPT in human form. Just as intelligent and flawed. Blind to how close we are to fusion, to the massive risk/reward advantages of fission, and to the massive economic output of AI technologies over the next decade. Yes the ride will be bumpy, but if we survive the existential risk the benefits are unimaginable.

He jumps the shark at 9:30

18:25 22:55 next century running out of oil 25:40 global warming 29:40 📢 thats our fault 32:33 climate change/energy 35:00 39:00 📢📢📢

I'm hopeful too...pushing up daisies before these collisions collide

ok

Why does there have to be a disembodied voice out of sight of the camera?

Horrible audio, so quiet! 🙉

'ik' 'me' or 'I' in Dutch.

Way to many people packed in these tiny cities..how can the economy provide work for everyone on earth ..it can't ..simply not enough jobs..it will become harder to hqave work in the future..the mass will be left behind to starve..its already happening..looking at Los angeles .thousands sleeping on the sidewalks ..and u see rich people ride by them in their Mercedes and they don't even acknowledge this poverty...its like it doesn't even exist to them or they are just so numb to it ..its the new normal to just pass by

I hope for a global society with out exploitation.

Start building your end of the world raider teams now before you become someone’s lunch...long pork tastes good

Healthcare collapsing as we speak. Buckle up! It’s happening!

Never was truer

We are the first generations in history to enjoy the dubious privilege of having the leisure to worry about the distant future. This plagues us with a anxiety not just for our own and our families lives, but for the lives of all future humanity. We didn't choose any of this. Yet we are told we are responsible. The grandiose narcissistic ego like to see itself in this position, saving humanity. The visionary of future destruction is then entitled to command the ignorant masses for their own good. Repent and be saved

It has been said that the privileged won't give anything up before they consider liquidating competitors. That doesn't look good for places like Bangladesh. The migration simply would be forbidden no matter the effect I predict

Nature may have given everyone a wonderful energy supply that was beyond the imagination of Victorian England as they became enthralled by going beyond nature as they industrialized and used steam engines, dynamos, and electric motors. They chose the second law of thermodymamics, which is a drain towards tepid stagnation and death without proof, instead of full realization of the well supported finding, even then, that energy can change form but not be created or destroyed. It may be possible to borrow thermal energy from our planetary air, water, or ground, convert it to electricity, and use the electricity as we wish and then return the thermal consequences of this use to the planet. Refrigerators and air conditioners in this system would produce electricity in exact equivalence to the heat they absorb. From the above point of view the need for energy from fuel and the ultimate thermal output are mutually superfluous. The thermal output is 1) second law unavailability 2) other thermal losses in friction or wire loss 3) the desired production of heat and 4) thermal aftereffects of the desired use of the electricity other than heat. Here is a thought experiment device that hypothetically creates self powered thermal diversification. The thought experiment device is impractical but easy to visualize and check for mechanical workability. Its parts are large enough to act as everyday mechanisms but small enough to work well with the nanometer scale thermal motions of gas molecules. Sketch made with keyboard characters: COLD ROOM ())--:WALL:-->> HOT ROOM Key ()) = Paddlewheel. -- = Axle. (Continuous from end to end) : : = Axle tunnel going through a wall. >> = Lumped friction element Please visualize two roome full of air separated by a very thin wall that allows the rooms to hold their heat independently with minor leakage through the wall. The wall is thin to delicately support billions of separate nanometer scale short axles running straight through loosely enough to rotate freely but not leak very much heat so the rooms can hold separate temperatures. On the left side, a very small paddlewheel is mounted at the left end of each axle. On the right side, lumped friction elements are mounted stationary in place on the wall, one for each axle, for the right end of each axle to run through. The lumped friction elements convert the mechanical rotation of their axle into heat. The lumped friction elements do not impart Brownian motion to their axle. Brownian motion (a nanometer scale effect) turns the paddlewheels at random speeds randomly clockwise or counterclockwise. This random rotation is turned into heat by the lumped friction elements. The committed, linked, and functional roles of the walls, paddlewheels, axles, and lumped friction elements in differnt places should systemically produce a divergence in the thermal energy in the two rooms without adding external energy. Another hypothetical device is the "nanometer scale aggregate" derivitive of Nicola Tesla's "vavular conduit" a fluidic device (Tesla valve) where, other than secondary structual erosion, only the fluid inside moves. The structure directly, as a consiquence of its shape, and without added intervention, imposes the property that fluid flow is somewhat one way because flow restricting turbulence is consequently generated when the fluid attempts to move in the reverse direction. This hypothetically, can be scaled down to rectify the Brownian thermal motion of the fluid. The effect is very small so billions of conduits must be collectively oriented the same way to aggregate useful power. Here is a hypothetical practical method with the working name thermary: The thermary mainly consists of two electrodes closely face to face (~1 micrometer) in a vacuum wired to an external electrical load. The face of the [Emitter] electrode is covered with a uniform array of LaB6 tipped small diameter carbon nanotubes grown straight out. The face of the [Absorber] electrode is covered with small scale graphine flake char. [Rice U 2014] Thermal energy mobilized unattached electrons will tend to free themselves outward from the emitter tips and drift at ~1 million meters / second @ 25 millivolts (thermal electron energy @ 20 C) to the absorber which tends to collect them. A negative charge accumulates on the absorber. This repels oncoming electrons slowing their forward drift, cooling them. The absorber electrode charge is simultaneously the repelling cooling and the external electrical load voltage. The drift current and external wire route current are the same. The DC electrical power consumed by the electrical load depends on the load resistance. Thermal energy absorption always equals the electrical yield. Wire resistance is a practical loss not a true loss so lt is overcome by added thermary output. The extra cooling balances the heat given off by the wire loss. The performance of the device is expected to be modest in the beginning but improve rapidly. Even early devices are expected to last a long time. There is little place for obsolence if the first installed thermary works adequately. They will withstand being short circuited indefinately up to an electromigration limit. I am not interested in any more patents. I have enough of a reputation with patent us3890161A Diode Array, which refrigerates by cycling heat into electricity via rectified and aggregated Johnson noise. The exclusionary use of patents breaks up synergistic benefits. Public participation is needed for wide scientific, general, and spiritual discourse, efficient use and efficient further development. Wide exposure to the public renders invention concepts unpatentable. Other teams have built low power prototypes of their concepts too so break-even perpetual motion is likely to emerge somewhere. Cell phones wouldn't die or need power cords or batteries or become hot. They would cool when transmitting radio signal power. Frozen food storage would be reliable and free or value positive. That means homes and markets would have independent power to preserve food. Vehicles wouldn't need fuel or fueling stops. Elevators would be very reliable with independent power. Water and sewage pumps may be placed anywhere. Nomads could raise their material supports item by item carefully and groups of people could modify their settlements with great technical flexibility. Zone refining would involve little net power. Reducing Bauxite to Aluminum, Rutile to Titanium, and Magnetite to Iron, would have a net cooling effect. With enough cheap power H2O and CO2 levels in the biosphere could be modified. There should be a unitary agency to look after our planetary concerns. Aloha Charles M Brown lll Kauai Hawaii

Much better than Jared Diamond. We should have moved into space to keep expanding, instead of spending 30 years on decadence and forever war.

compound interest Pendejo. debt growing faster than income feudalism master / slaves employer / employee rich / poor 1% / 99% like today

Honestly I really want him to do an interview in today's time and discuss the concepts created by transhumanists and how it may/may not contribute to complex societal collapse.

Average takes 250 years to collapse. That's around 1770. Wasn't some declaration being signed around then?

This man said alot without actually saying it. He is very clever. If you ever have the chance to interview him again, please ask him about the transgender mania and its effects on our previous societies. I would love to hear what an articulate speaker like himself would say to that. Im concerned about it.

We are "subsidized" by fossil fuels, but fossil fuels were subsidized by the sun. If you are going to give the impression of going to primary causes go all the way.

birth control

There is a singular human civilisation and cultures that contribute to it. That’s the definition of organised human presence on this rock. And even a professor cannot get passed this semantic hole. The talk becomes increasingly fractured.

Not everything is about money

Cheer up and take the Zombie Juice Jab. . .

We're as good as gone. Thankfully unlike my parents and my sister I did not breed.

God or Nothing .... human beings who live a holy liife emit energy. This is the answer. You must create energy and emit energy yourself. Consumers? Material perception does not comprehend the value and functioning of honest creative people. Unless you see the value in the labour love and ingenuity of people .... unless you see that this creates energy - yes literally, if you don't see that you live in fear of extinction because you don't understand your value. That is what is meant by Holy. To see what is actually happening beyond coarse materalism. This man is wonderfully lucid, however his ideas are only of which technology outside ourselves we should make. He sees no value and has no interest in human beings, only in machines outside of ourselves. Therefore he will fail. The question is not how to make machines. The question is how to make ourselves such that we are renewable, in other words that we create life and light. If not we are simply leeches in a world of machines, that is the implication of the split vision that this man is limited to.

good job soundman , not

would have been nice if this was not so eurocentric> He fails to mention Indus Valley civilization collapse contrast with long continuation of Chinese civilization

Didn't foresee the rapid improvements in renewables... we CAN make it

30:00 If only we had “education “ and not indoctrination. He wants people to think of the future and far away places and in school they are trying to figure out how many genders there are and teaching critical race theory

Hello dependents. Sorry

The world has changed so much since 2011 when this interview took place. I am optimistic we will survive, transform and thrive. Please interview him now in 2023. All the global warming lies for instance were manufactured. We are emerging from being a prison planet. Have love and hope everyone!!❤

excellent content, terrible awful audio quality, especially of the interviewer, it's like she's shouting into the distant mic.

George Carlin was close when he said the planet needs plastic bags so it created us. No, all Terriestrial life forms are carbon based, what the earth needs is to have all that carbon released from the geosphere (coal, oil, peat, limestone) into the biosphere (plants, trees, cats ... every living thing). So, light a (coal powered) candle for life.

smart man. bamboozled by the global warming psyop.

Did you just have a baby or grandbaby? Because your fear is showing

Funny, this guy seems to be a neoliberal mouthpiece.

Boy does he get everything wrong