Kim Jong-Un’s decision to abandon the goal of peaceful reunification came as a huge shock. For over fifty years, the two Koreas have been committed to eventually ending the Cold War division that has kept them apart. But do you think this is just Kim recognising that unity won’t happen and finding a way to tell his people, as some suggest? Or is this a sign that he no longer sees negotiated unification as an option but is now actively preparing for war, as other commentators believe? And what about South Korea? Could it manage reunifcation? As always, I look forward to your thoughts and comments below.

My view was that the true goal of the North Korean regime since the 2000s was never reunification but rather just the preservation of the North Korean regime. If reunification threatened the North Korean regime, even if it were a situation favorable to North Korea, North Korea would not accept it.

Isn't it perfectly rational for the Kim dynasty to want partition to become permanent? There is no way any reunification agreement would keep the PDRK regime in power.

As a South Korean, Kim Jong-un's recent declaration seems to be for the younger generation of North Korea. The younger generation of North Korea, the Jangmadang generation, is fanatically fond of South Korean dramas and songs. In North Korea, watching South Korean songs or dramas is so influential that it can land you in prison. I already think the regime war is over in the younger generation of North Korea. What they want is unification with South Korea. If there is a family living in South Korea after defecting from North Korea, the family left behind in North Korea, although suppressed by the North Korean government, is envied by the North Korean people. From Kim Jong-un's perspective, it is a huge crisis for the regime, and it is a declaration to the North Korean people that there will be no unification.

Pyongyang isn't looking for unification anymore, they're looking for survival in the 21st century.

Some years ago I learned that the South Korean parliament had tables and seats reserved for N Korean representatives in case unification were to happen the next day. Unsure whether it is still the case.

East Germany and North Korea had close relations and the STASI internally called North Korean demands paranoid. Imagine even the STASI thinks you are too paranoid. They demanded their students to be isolated after classes

As a South Korean, I see it as Kim's effort for self-preservation. He has a severe health issue, and his heir to the throne is still very young. North Koreans are increasely exposed to South Korean Kpop dramas and music and starting to realize North Korea is not the heaven on Earth. If Kim dies in a few years, North Korea can collapse very soon.

Does anyone else remember how for about five minutes after Kim Jong Un took power we wondered if he would be a more progressive leader than his father?

In a weird way, North Korea being poor, isolated, and antiquated is as powerful tool to prevent invasion as the military. Most of the people are economically hinderence and it would be the largest reconstruction project in world history to bring them to relatively modest standards. Not to mention the immense self inflicted environmental damage.

My former teacher during my master's degree was from Korea. He hoped for unification and was sure that it was going to happen in his life. I agreed with him. My idea with agreeing with him was, that the PRC is facing a very hard time to keep NK floating. The South's development within military equipment keeps widening the gap between them, this will shake the NK leadership + that Kim is going to die, and then we might have a crisis. If it even gets to that point. My fear is that NK is going to strike first and then gets rolled over after they have completely destroyed Seoul.

Yeah been like this for almost 80 years now, any change must come from within

First of all, peaceful reunification has always been mostly an aspiration. Secondly, Korean peninsula historically had three distinct kingdoms with very different origins that trace back to 1200 - 1100 BC. A unified Korea emerged around 14 - 15 century. The peninsula had much longer history of being divided than unified. So the announcement is not entirely out of historical norm.

I have a ton of respect for Prof JKL. The background and context analysis was very good. It is only that tackling the question only comes up around minute 11. This deserves a follow up video, also to address potential scenarios with risks and opportunities alike. For example, could the declaration advance efforts towards a formal end of the war or to formalize boundaries? Could it simply lead NK to greater isolation, seeking a more defensive posture? Also what is the SK response? Just my two cents on great content. Definitely do a follow up video.

The current president of South Korea, Yoon Suk Yeol, assumed office on May 10, 2022. On May 28, 2022, CNN reported that Yoon declared "the age of appeasing North Korea is over". Furthermore, Korean newspapers reported on May 30, 2022 that Korean military had labelled North Korea "our enemy", a departure from previous "a real military threat".

Great video Professor. This change in policy along with North Korea shelling the waters of a South Korean island which lies within what most observers would classify as North Korean territorial waters kicked off 2024 with a bang on the peninsula. With the Juche monarchy on its 2nd heir who is not in the best of health, I believe that any collapse of the DPRK will happen as a result of instability before the coronation of the Party’s third heir. Worth noting is that there’s not a clear male to take over when Jong Eun is incapacitated. Kim’s powerful sister, Yo Jong, is a candidate. North Korea watchers also noted last year the introduction of Jong Eun’s young daughter into the public eye.

Wasn’t the thought of reunification on the part of the North Korean leadership always going to occur on their terms - i.e. that South Korea would eventually become part of the territory ruled over by the North Korean leadership?

Im curious how did the North vs South languages diverge? Isn't it the same dialect?

James, in regards to to North Korean collapse scenario, do you think China would send in troops to prop up some friendly regime, even if the regime is incredibly unpopular? Given that N Koreans are constantly reminded of the horrors of the Korean War, would they want a S Korean regime to rule them? I think China likes the status quo, and would want to orevent that, but theyd also not want a clash between Chinese ans S Korean troops due to their relations with the US. What do you think James?

5:09 'along the 38th parallel' ..Not correct. The DMZ(DeMilitarized Zone) is not the 38th parallel. But 4 km wide belt; the center line was the bloody front line in July, 1953. (I am a South Korean; and the following thought is not a typical Korean one.) Basically this is a game between SK and US on one side and China on the other. NK is only a proxy or an agent. The ruling clique's Raison d'être is: 1) Serve the CCP, China 2) Make themselves irreplaceable ( in the eyes of the CCP) The existence of SK itself makes them even more irreplaceable in two ways. First, when a small drop of freedom or idea of an alternative is given to the people, the situation would become very, very volatile since people have known the success story of SK. Second, if China pushes this spoiled clique too much, they would go rogue by 'selling the regime out' to the US and SK. The more nukes they have, the higher price they can sell at; the stronger negotiating position they have with regard to the CCP. The CCP has chosen a stupid strategy. They have imagined, when they arm NK with nukes, that they could brainwash the SK people with the idea "only China can save us from the threat of NK's nukes" (psychological coercion) and that the US Forces in SK and Japan would be pinned down in the Taiwan or South China Sea contingency (military coercion). The result? (1) Now SK people is one the most anti-China in the whole world even though there are strong biz ties between two countries. (2) SK and the US have consolidated the extended nuclear deterrence (the will of the US to use nukes) (3) SK is becoming the world's forth or third largest non-nuke state-of-the-art weapons supplier and a de facto NATO member. Saudi just decided to go with SK's ballistic missile defense system(ChunGung-2). If their new fighter development (KF-21) goes successful by 2026, SK's arms export will exceed that of France. Saudi Arabia wants to be a partner of the future of the fighter. ukposts.info/have/v-deo/cKd3gGaciYCHqIU.html It is only 900 km from Seoul to Beijing. Only 700 from Sin-Ee-Ju (NK). The best strategy for China should be to stabilize the peninsula and make the division permanent. Mao said "when you lose your lips, your teeth gets frozen'(脣亡齒寒) when he sent three million soldiers to the Korean War and made hundreds of thousands killed or maimed. China should have managed NK as the buffer. That was exactly what the US had agreed to and wanted. Status-quo game. The geography of NK had set its fate as a buffer. Still, China has armed this 'buffer' with nukes and with SRBMs, IRBMs and ICBMs. These are destabilizing, 'revisionist' stuff. China's strategy has been schizophrenic. They have played a revisionist game with a 'should-be' status-quo locality. I do not worry too much about the possibility of a full-scale conflict as long as the US maintains a hot-line communication channel with China. NK's ruing clique is a very cunning business group. They know that a war would be a total annihilation of the clique. As for China, they cannot bear the consequences: the loss of 'the lips'..... The US Forces would not, should not be permanently stationed in the NK after a brief war. SK forces are more than enough for the PLA's Northern and Central Command Centers (北方战区, 中部戰區), in terms of non-nuke confrontation. Just imagine an 800,000 soldiers (now it is 550,000 ..after reunification it will be increased at least to 800,000) armed with, for example, hundreds of fighters ranging from F-35, F-15, F-16 to the indigenous KF-21 which is more agile than F-16, almost as strong as F-15 and more of a multi-role than a F-35. And 4.5 million reserve forces (within 8 years after 2 years of conscription,.. now it is 3 milllion but...). China can destroy Korean Peninsula. But it cannot conquer or rule it. And SK has the power to destroy almost all the coastal area from Shanghai to Lianoing, including Beijing. The depth can reach upto ChongQing. Why shoud China worry? Even if all the elites in Seoul are killed, SK, as a free republic, will go on. But if all the elites in Beijing are killed, the CCP ends. China is the one to back-off. NK is the one to sell off. If China can manage the back-off (the handling of nuke-armed rogues), this peninsula will remain divided. If it fails, sooner or later, this cunning mass-killers will sell off the regime and start a new life in the US protectorate Virgin Island with the immunity given by the US.

Super video, nice. History is something that is passionate just like geography, good job.

Thanks Prof 👍🏻👍🏻

amazing video, i love the way you talk!!

Very helpful as usual.

I think it also opens up further diplomatic solutions. There can be no progress as long as the West insists that denuclearisation must be the first step. The fait of Iraq and Libya on one side and the Ukraine on the other side shows that giving up such aspirations is bad. Other changes must be allowed to be the first step. PS: Yemeni unification didn't really work well lol

New to the channel & just subscribed. Thanks for the video 🤙🏼

Nothing is permanent or forever...but none of us alive today are going to see a reunification of the two Koreas.

This was a very interesting analysis on the DPRK and South Korea. Good for thought.

For the past few years, my understanding was that a complete unification was impossible due to widening cultural and economic differences. The north would end up in a similar position as former East Germany but worse. Some form of confederation may technically be possible but that will require someone to make major concessions.

Excellent synopsis.. The formalization in north Korea of a non-peaceful reunification must be a point of deep examination. The paradigm north Korea has used since 1991 when support from the Soviet Union disappeared has been to create false crisis' in order to extract concessions given to the north for free. Here in south Korea a massive burgeoning problem is the demographic time bomb has exploded and the RoK is having difficulty filling units with conscripted young men. Despite conscrition have full political support in society for domestic political reasons the former President Roh lower the terms of service for conscripts, thus creating a mechanism that has hollowed out the military. The north sees the demographic iceberg the south has, and the possible ending of the security guarantee from the US. In south Korea the government spends around 2.8% of GDP on Defense. If south Korea did not have the Mutual Defense Treaty with the US the south would need to spend between 8-9% on Defense and the term of conscription in the south would be between 4-5 years, with women also being subject to conscription. These "costs" to maintain deterrance without the US politically would be quite difficult burden on society in south Korea. In north Korea KJU easily sees the political difficulties the US & the RoK have had maintaining political coherent policy towards the north since 1992. KJU is looking at the long game & is anticipating Trump could be reelected, and this is a window of opportunity to get the US to withdrawl as well as abrogate its Mutual Defense Treaty just like President Carter did with the Republic of China (Taiwan). Given the departure of the US, demographic problems in the south, and the heavy political/economic costs to deter a hostile north; the ability for the north to leverage concessions from the south will be unabated. The only way the RoK can create deterrance is with nuclear weapons, which will create a new paradigm of two nuclear armed states locked in a serious conflict. Not a positive development. All of this unfortunately plays into the hands of the PRC by removing the US from the Far East thus creating a complete Chinese hegemony with the corner stone of their Foreign Policy would be bullying and relentless intimidation. Thanks for covering this topic.

Very well done! I have just suscribed.

I think the South might as well accept the death of that dream of reunification too. With the partition being so old now, an increasing part of the population would much rather keep their economy running as smoothly as possible, rather than burden themselves with the idea of possibly absorbing a state that has never moved on from the Cold War.

Good video! I know you're using the word "democracy" for SK as shorthand in comparison to DPRK, but between the chaebol oligarchs, years of government corruption, and the preceding rule under a military dictatorship, I wouldn't put much emphasis on SK being a beacon of democracy. That's not to say DPRK is either, of course

I would have a more positive outlook on this development than you. Finally, all UN members recognize South Korea as a sovereign state. What is wrong with that? And if, in the future (likely under a democratic government in the North), both Koreas decide to merge, there isn't a single international law that would prevent it, correct?

Because China has strong security interest regarding unification, to paraphrase French President Mitterand on the fall of the Berlin Wall, China loves Korea so much, it prefers two of them.

reading between the lines, could this be a pivot to unification by force rather than "peaceful" means?

Amazing take, Prof. James! Keep the videos coming. Also, I recently wrote a journal article on India-Africa relations, is there any way I can reach out to your and take your valuable feedback on the same? Best Regards, Ali from Kashmir, India! Edit: Rest assured, I'll be using my institute ID and won't be spamming your inbox. Many thanks.

Coincidentally, I'm reading "Behind the Wall" by Katja Hoyer right now. Things wouldn't have had to go but a little bit different and we just might have a nuclear DDR in the middle of Europe threatening it's neighbours with war and firing missiles into the Baltic Sea...

Does reunification not imply a more unstable relationship between the Korea's?

Thanks for the video professor. It seems the scenario is similar to Germany in that only with the loss of will or collapse (which as seen in the Soviet example may be one in the same) of Communist China would North Korea itself collapse. Despite dangerous questions that would arise such as the future of the DPRK’s nuclear weapons, in that scenario North Korea would essentially be a sideshow to a larger geopolitical cataclysm, with the PRC’s own nuclear arsenal presenting a much greater challenge to manage. Given how the collapse of the Soviet Union and its satellites was itself so unanticipated and sudden, predicting the specifics such a future scenario seems impossible. As far as this January declaration, it seems to be a part of North Korea’s increasingly extreme oscillation between peacemaking (usually when it needs food aid) and saber-rattling. Right now despite Beijing’s status as Pyongyang’s primary protector, Moscow seems to be leaning heavily on Pyongyang not only for military supplies but also for geopolitical misdirection. The Kim regime, given barely enough aid to stay in power by Xi, seems only too happy to oblige Putin, and this declaration could very well be part of that. Thanks as always for the video professor and hope you are well!

There are various interpretations of Kim's statement about abandoning the unification of the Korean peninsula. First, his statement itself is really tricky. What kind of unification he was referring to? Because there are various versions of the unification model. Second, he also mentioned that South Korea is his country's permanent enemy. What does it mean? The Korean War was broken out by his grandfather for the unification of the Korean peninsula in the North's term. So if he decided to abandon the goal of unification, the war now become meaningless, so it would be the best time for negotiating a peace agreement. But he didn't. One of the interpretations I agree with is that nothing has changed. He erased the article about the call for unification from the North Korean constitution. However, the unification mentioned in the article does not mean all forms of unification: it meant peaceful unification by negotiation, such as forming the Korean Confederation. At the same time, he also mentioned that the war was ongoing, and the war was a war for unification by force in the North's terms. Furthermore, he at the same time ordered the North Korean military institutions to prepare for restoring the territory in the South, meaning the whole chunk of ROK territory. So it it can be inferred that he still wants to unify the whole chunk of the Korean peninsula by force. Interestingly, Andrei Lankov, one of the prominent researchers of North Korea, recently mentioned in a conference by Korea Economic Institute of America that "North Koreans are beginning to think seriously about a military solution of the Korean problem which is the invasion of the South" It seems that there is a wide agreement among Korea Watchers that Kim's recent comment on the unification meant he found the military solution is the most realistic option for him. There are two points to support this argument. The quantitative and qualitative conventional military superiority of the South could be (not easily but possibly) neutralised by tactical nuclear weapons which Kim and his advisors think usable. American support to its southern ally could be abandoned, not anytime soon but someday. They believe it because they found, from the Ukrainian case, that the decision-makers in Washington would not take the risk of a direct war against another nuclear power.

heck - give it a mere 10 thousand years - permanency is fleeting

"... So they wish to surrender?"

New subscriber. I enjoyed your analysis. Very clear. Very informative. As a practical matter, could these two nations ever reunify? The two sides are simply too far apart politically and economically. I can't see Kim every participating in a free election.

Όσο έγινε η Κύπρος ένα κράτος ενωμενο άλλο τόσο θα γίνει και η Κορέα ενωμένη Αυτά είναι αστεία να τα λές Στην παρούσα φάση το καλύτερο είναι να υπάρχει ειρήνη στην περιοχή μακριά και αγαπημένοι που λέμε στήν Ελλάδα η παροιμία. Έτσι όπως είναι τα πράγματα Τώρα ένωση δεν γίνεται μόνο Ειρήνη ☮️ μπορεί να υπάρξει να το θέλουν και οι δύο χώρες πραγμάτικα όμως Ο ένας να μην ενοχλεί των άλλων αυτό είναι το καλύτερο για την ώρα ο πόλεμος δεν είναι η λύση Ούτε για την ένωση ούτε για την ειρήνη ένας διάλογος δεν βλάπτει νομίζω εγώ.

Great 👍

In the 70's men served 7 to 8 years in the military in NK, and 3 years in sk

In contrast to the reunification of Germany, a number of problems stand in the way here. 1) The divided states have fundamentally different concepts of what "reunification" actually means. 2) Some of the neighbouring states will not be willing to accept this reunification. Thus China would lose its "cheap protective layer".

I didn’t know the North abandoned the reunification goal. I know the South claims to want reunification but due to the costs associated with reunification with the much poorer north I don’t think they actually want it. Obviously that’s just an opinion.

Thank you for educational content, it's very hard to unify Korea because Kim family is dictatorship while South Korea is democracy Since Trump tried and there was no progress I gave up I hope one day someone will unify Korean

Thought experiment: N Korea ends, but S Korea is able to secure the area. Could the entire Northern half of the Korean Peninsula become a Special Economic Zone? The Republic of Korea owns it as a one country two systems government. instead of immediately trying to integrate the northern half?

Kim won't accept because of power🤣🤣🤣

Thanks prof! How do you think sanctions against the North have affected the odds of peaceful reunification? Personally, I believe that sanctions have probably made peaceful reunification less likely. Economic growth (except in petrostates), tends to mean a rise in the number of educated middle and working-class citizens, who form the backbone of democratic states. The strength and scale of sanctions against NK inhibits economic growth and thereby this change in class structure. So, rather than causing the uprising against the regime as desired, sanctions actually keep the population rural, less educated and impoverished. The poverty does pose some threats to the Kim family’s grasp on power but, in my view, only a fraction of the challenge enormous growth and ensuing calls for democracy would have. What do you think? I think there are possible rationales (rather than incompetence) which could explain American foreign policy. Perhaps, even US policymakers agree with me entirely, increasing the economic leverage of authoritarian states comes with major risks in the short-term before their democratic transition. It is conceivable that US policymakers understand that removing sanctions would make a democratic transition more likely, but feel they have their hands full with China at the moment. However, I suspect that it is more likely that American policy is motivated by vindictiveness towards the North as well as short-term political incentives to keep positive relations with the South. In the long-term I think this is short-sighted, as sanctions increase the risk of the NK collapse scenario - which, especially as a nuclear-armed state, I think is much more of a roll of the dice for the US than allowing NK’s growth would have been. I would point to the US’s recent détente with Vietnam, which you made a great video on, as a good counterexample of the benefits of allowing economic growth, as well as the history of South Korea and Japan, who both became strongly democratic after massive growth from manufacturing.

Same could be said for the PRC and ROC they are taking 2 different road

Cleary neither side wants to inherit the other's debt.

Is it a question of when not if that North korea's regime will fall ?

Practically, people in South Korea, do not want the burden of reunification. More practical idea may be a federation of Korea.

It’s just sad, imo, that an ethnically relatively homogeneous group like the Koreans, in an identifiable distinct geographical area that is the peninsula, should now consider it impossible to live in unity and harmony….after just 70 years of separation and division.

This year marks 70 years since Din Bin Phu. Sometimes partition doesn't last.

Contrary to a much-believed myth, the US and USSR didn't agree to "divide" Korea in 1945. The two countries had agreed to demarcate military occupation zones, not to set up two Korean countries.

Thank you for the video, i always wondered what happened to the "Unification Institutes" they rolled out in South Korea and the whole idea behind them, which on it's naively observed surface was positive on paper for all Koreans but below the surface of course meant that South Koreans would've been turned more and more indifferent towards the artrocities of dictat communism happening across North Korea and possibly could've turned South Koreans hostile towards the benefits of social capitalism that's now prevelent across the entire West and is, to my knowledge, still the core principle of the South Korean government. Let's hope and pray that the spark of divine justice present in all of us humans will prevent a single human from ever deciding over a dire fate for millions, potentially billions of lives and souls via nuclear missile strikes.

Unification would eventually happen when we officially see the change of guard at the top. Division, animosity, and mistrust would be buried for good.

Regardless of what peope say, Ihope to see the happy peaceful reunification of the koreas. and I so hope there is no more suffering and poverty. 😢

Blood is thicker than water

Costs, risks, difficulties and all that aside... It's still a tragedy to see this great people divided.

The united republic of korea(The URK) will be among the strongest military and economic giants of the world.Both koreas are good people god bless you.

3:09 Korea was not a vassal state. Korea was an independent state. Defining Korea as a vassal state shows lack of knowledge about the east asian diplomatic system. The east asian diplomatic system was hierarchical. Every country in east asia had hierarchical relationship. Having an official relationship with China doesn't mean the country was being ruled by China.

Imagine thinking some guys will refuse God status for a nationalist idea from Europe.

I remember watching a video of people in the streets in south korea being interviewed about this topic and a lot of them were neutral or against it, especially younger generations. They have basically no family attachments cause they never even met their relatives from the other side and a lot of them are not even alive anymore. Plus a lot of them didn't like the idea of messing up their economy big time to modernize north korea, which makes sense because even though they're a rich country, their economy is pretty fragile and heavily reliant on imports

... "Let us begin with this evident fact: Muscovy does not belong at all to Europe, but to Asia. It follows that judging Muscovy and the Muscovites by our European standards is a mistake to be avoided."-gonzague de reynold, 19501 In methodological terms, one should de-Europeanise any analysis of Muscovy policy.- thomas gomart, 20062 "

Great topic. Thanks. To be adolescent here, the bad Korea is still very bad: a slave-ocracy. As others have noted, China has a vested interest in seeing Korea divided. For Koreans, I really hope things will change for the better. There are also a significant number of Koreans within China close to the North Korean border. That part of the world would be so much cooler if all of Korea could become a liberal democracy.

South Korean would never unify with North Korea unless South Korea government was the only government and the North Korean leaders and military stepped down.

And this follows on the North Korean destruction, not too long ago, of the unification building at the DMZ. I have lived in South Korea since 2003 and this makes me and my Korean friends very uneasy, to say the least. It is a de facto statement of our situation that leads little doubt what DPRK plans to do!

North Korea should promote itself as a Pokemon Go destination 🤣

Why would it

In the economy section of your analysis, a mention of the US sanctions and embargo should have been made. A major reason why the North collapsed economically, aside from the collapse of the USSR, is the decades of sanctions by the US which have prevented the North from importing foreign goods. Famine, malnutrition, and ill health in the country have been tied to these sanctions as well. In the military section a mention of the large US force, including nukes, on the Korean peninsula deserved more mention. Why the North pursues nukes and a large war machine is because the ruling elite feel threatened by the presence of US troops and weapons. A peaceful resolution to this conflict cannot happen unless the US gives the North some space. Reunification is unlikely in my opinion due to the vast economic difference. But a cooperative neighbourly relationship is possible between the North and South.

Kim jong un Fears he could be overthrow So maybe why he said the things in the speech

Kim would not invade the south unless he has ultimate assurance of his victory and some things need to happen. Russian aggression spills into NATO and/or China to invade Taiwan. This would put a tremendous strain on western armed forces. I don't think either of these things will happen, I am an eternal optimist, although I was wrong about Russia invading Ukraine. Now Kim once again has the funding/patronage of Russia/China he has decided to put on his billy big boy pants and drop all pretence of diplomacy. I think internally this could backfire on the Kim regime as this upsets the status quo and could quell dissent. The question now is how easy will it be for aggressor states to come back to the diplomatic table and will it be accepted without concession?

I think the North is doing the best it has in the last 20 years. Economic woes have stabilized, nuclear weapons gave it security and it seems that trade with China is not true only partner. There's no shortage of North Koreans working overseas on SE Asia and seven Eastern Europe. A collapse would require a collapse of China. Won't happen. Also, the message of reunification is something you can keep talking about, a topic like "tax reform" or "education reform." Just another thing on the agenda for career politicians.

Never considered it, but it will probably take a century for the South to rehabilitate the North upon a " peaceful " reunion?

Reunification was never possible in the first place. It would pose too much of a threat to his power. That would give the other countries involved more say in what he does.

It is a shock only for ordinary people. DPRK stopped calling SK as Nam Choson (South Choson) and started calling by SK's official name DaehanMinguk in summer 2023 in mass media and official documents.

I doubt his sincerity. A diversion of sorts for another attempt at taking the southern portion.

The Kim's will be remembered, but as what depends on future nostalgia.

Technically North and South Korea are still at war as there is no Peace Treaty signed after the Korea War.ended in 1953 As to the future of the Korean Peninsula, I can only see two possible outcomes both of which will be determined by the geo-politics of the US, Russia and China with the US being the key determinant. The first outcome is the present status quo which has been prevailing since the end of the Korean War. South Korea has been able to enjoyed peace and prosperity to date not only because of US support but also its good relationships with its close neighbors China and Russia. Lately, China is also South Korea's biggest trading partner. But things are changing since Pres Yoon came into power because unlike his predecessor who took a more neutral stance towards China and Russia, Pres Yoon has cast all his chips in favor of the US who is now aggressively implementing a containment policy against China and Russia. Inevitably if there is a war between the US and China over Taiwan, then there is a high probability South Korea and Japan will be dragged in by the US. This will result in a bigger regional conflict with Russia and North Korea joining China. The reason why I am certain Russia and North Korea will get involved is simply because if China is defeated, they will be the next targets, thus constituting an existential threat. Question now is, who will win in this conflict with the US, Japan and South Korea against China, Russia and North Korea? I am confident it will be the later because of to main reasons. This war will be existential to China, Russia, North Korea, South Korea and Japan but not to the US. Albeit technologically they are at par, but the later also have the home ground advantage. What then will be the future of South Korea? It will cease to exist. This to me is the second outcome.

If North Korea were to continue to be like what they are, it might as well as better to let the 2 Koreas be permanently divided. The 2 countries have became as different as heaven and earth. Reunification is going to be an extremely heavy burden for South Korea and its people while it would be very difficult to undo the damage done to the psyche of the North Korean people and to reintegrate them. Realistically and practically, it would really be better for the 2 Koreas to just give up on reunification and be 2 separate nations.

I have not been overly invested in following the Korean situation, but the whole idea of a peaceful and jointly orchestrated unification with respect to the sovereignty and integrity of both sides always seemed to me as deeply fake. There are these cultural differences in wider regional groups, how say in Taiwan the government still refers to itself as the Republic of China, or the general prominence of tradition and politeness contrasted with the ideas of individualism and directness seen in the wider West; all this unification business was always just a form of politeness typical of East Asia, a political theatre stemming from their culture. I could be simply wrong but that is my impression.

How realistic would a unification be anyway. Both societies are now so different. From education, to economy, to freedom to being yourself. Imagine they would be agreeing on becoming one Korea next week. That would just not work.

One unfortunate small issue is, unification doesn’t benefit anyone, apart from the North Korean people may experience better quality of life. As stated by Professor, leaders of both sides have little incentive to share power with the other. Major powers would prefer a buffer state on their side than an emerging regional powerhouse that’s Nuclear armed. Speaking of nuclear weapons, North Korea is perhaps the country that’s most resistant to nuclear attacks. With highly mountainous terrain and 70 years worth of underground infrastructure, North Korea is likely to take less damage in a nuclear exchange. Fortunately we will probably have a few more years. Whatever North Korea got in return from supplying Russia, may it be satellite access, hypersonic missile technology, or worst, nuclear submarines, it’s likely to increase North Korea’s nuclear capabilities. It may take a few more years before North Korea capitalizes this gain before making its moves.

No one ever thought there was the slightest chance of reunification.

preservation of a dynasty.

😔😢😢

thx Prof. The one thing that stood out for me was, if China had so much influence over the peninsula early on, why isn't China making the same claim they are with respect to Taiwan?

Psudo Treaty (Still at War) = Possible Unpause on the Korean War.

Unification like the 2 state solution was never going to happen. North Korea will never give up total power for democracy. Thing is China was happy to see them as a thorn in the West's side but I can see China having to sort North Korea out.

This may seem like a joke to all in the west, however this home truth hit me when I was in China. North Korea is fine with reunification. If South Korea wants to reunite with the North, then they can go ahead and be welcomed with open arms. People just assume that reunification means that the North give up, accept it's lower status and unite with the South. Of course, it's ridiculous for people in the west to consider the inverse. We saw the same when Germany reunited. Some in the East (and it was not a marginal view) did not want to be part of the West and its system. Just an observation.

The Korean peninsula is from a political standpoint quite similar to the Congos. 🌝🌚

China and Russia are also more than happy to maintain a buffer between them and non allied nations and would resist any reunification unless it was South Korea being absorbed into the North.

How can NK start a war with South Korea when they are already at war with them? What a joke.

Even if the leader of North Korea and others in power were eliminated, the people would be such shock, and another military leader would take his place, before the people could rise up and demand freedom, and unification with the south! The North Koreans are prisoners in their own country!