State Polls Fell Short in 2016. Here’s What Pollsters Learned | WSJ

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The Wall Street Journal

The Wall Street Journal

День тому

In 2016, problems with state-level election polls left some voters surprised by the outcome. Since then, many pollsters have made changes in the hope of accurately capturing the mood of the country ahead of the 2020 election. Photo illustration: Laura Kammermann
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#WSJ #Election2020 #Polls

КОМЕНТАРІ: 269
@joep8099
@joep8099 3 роки тому
This didn’t age well 😂
@FlosBlog
@FlosBlog 3 роки тому
The upside of this pandemic is that we get to see so many people's book shelfes
@19MAD95
@19MAD95 3 роки тому
It’s a flex.
@markschulz2434
@markschulz2434 3 роки тому
Who watches the watchmen.
@elizabethhenning778
@elizabethhenning778 3 роки тому
Polling, like any other scientific field, is imperfect but it improves as we learn more. It's like asking if we can "trust" the weather report.
@staletylernol3611
@staletylernol3611 3 роки тому
Exactly
@silverbullet4438
@silverbullet4438 3 роки тому
wait, I thought the weather forecast is pretty accurate.
@chrisba1377
@chrisba1377 3 роки тому
Perfectly said 👌🏼
@linuxman7777
@linuxman7777 3 роки тому
Polling is far from scientific, because people can lie, and pollsters have political bias, Polling isn't like analyzing Animals, or the weather, or even plate techtonics because there is no possibility of misinformation, just misinterpretation with the later, but with polling there is alot of misinformation
@burtonl7239
@burtonl7239 3 роки тому
It's perfectly reasonable to ask if we can "trust" the weather report if the industry is saturated by doomsayers and we keep hearing that the sky is falling.
@ML-hs3ld
@ML-hs3ld 3 роки тому
Pollsters did make some good adjustments after the 2016 bungle. They were accurate about the 2018 midterms.
@greg5011
@greg5011 3 роки тому
How were they on Brexit ???
@elizabethhenning778
@elizabethhenning778 3 роки тому
They were _mostly_ accurate about 2018.
@2MasterBuilder2
@2MasterBuilder2 3 роки тому
They were accurate about the mid-terms because there is no Electoral College. Polls reflect the popular vote.
@user-vh4yi8yy3g
@user-vh4yi8yy3g 3 роки тому
The blue wave wasn’t as crazy as they said it would be
@kevinjuniorlaksamana6984
@kevinjuniorlaksamana6984 3 роки тому
ukposts.info/have/v-deo/onGbqKeIbIOqw30.html
@Jonnydoe23
@Jonnydoe23 3 роки тому
This didn't age well
@Themasterx22
@Themasterx22 3 роки тому
Lol Barron at 0:09
@arjunyeleshwarapu
@arjunyeleshwarapu 3 роки тому
Im suprised its not a meme
@foolishdx
@foolishdx 3 роки тому
Say again? What did you learn?
@ZHC_Adventures
@ZHC_Adventures 3 роки тому
James comey happened
@kevinjuniorlaksamana6984
@kevinjuniorlaksamana6984 3 роки тому
ukposts.info/have/v-deo/onGbqKeIbIOqw30.html
@kevinjuniorlaksamana6984
@kevinjuniorlaksamana6984 3 роки тому
ukposts.info/have/v-deo/onGbqKeIbIOqw30.html
@ladysun7965
@ladysun7965 3 роки тому
Barron Trump rolling his eyes lol at the beginning of the video 😂
@kevinjuniorlaksamana6984
@kevinjuniorlaksamana6984 3 роки тому
ukposts.info/have/v-deo/onGbqKeIbIOqw30.html
@kevinjuniorlaksamana6984
@kevinjuniorlaksamana6984 3 роки тому
ukposts.info/have/v-deo/onGbqKeIbIOqw30.html
@feelingidaho
@feelingidaho 3 роки тому
It was 2 in the morning in New York when they declared victory for Trump. It was way past Barron's bedtime. He wasn't rolling his eyes, he was trying to open them to stay awake.
@out_on_bail
@out_on_bail 3 роки тому
He wasn’t rolling his eyes the kid was trying to stay awake.
@ladysun7965
@ladysun7965 3 роки тому
@@feelingidaho :O didn't know that
@jacobdooley2742
@jacobdooley2742 3 роки тому
nothing
@kyle7574
@kyle7574 3 роки тому
I like how this is in depth with what they fit wrong in 2016
@lswank452
@lswank452 3 роки тому
Too many tabs that appear as surveys are reaching out to sell candidate products.
@woodstockisjoecool
@woodstockisjoecool 3 роки тому
It’s my opinion that the overwhelming majority of media outlets strongly supported democratic views rather than staying neutral- causing a “false majority” to arise in the poling system. This hurt both political parties as democrats thought they could count on states that had a huge lead. Same story for the republican party
@icewink7100
@icewink7100 3 роки тому
Fox News is the most watched news channel lol, such a dumb argument.
@alexandra4real360
@alexandra4real360 3 роки тому
@@icewink7100 Fox News is just 1 news station. The OP said the "majority of media outlets strongly supported democratic view" i.e. CNN, MSNBC, ABC NEWS which do usually support democratic views.
@allisonschempf2230
@allisonschempf2230 3 роки тому
I would hope that most voters would decide who to vote for without looking at the polls. Polls are important, but they shouldn't sway individual decisions.
@Giltorres88
@Giltorres88 3 роки тому
Even his son rolled his eyes
@osmanosman401
@osmanosman401 3 роки тому
Because he's been practicing his lies at home
@rogueyun9613
@rogueyun9613 Рік тому
They didn't learn anything.
@benjaminsoper3391
@benjaminsoper3391 3 роки тому
See this is a good news video no bias just news
@QuestionEverythingButWHY
@QuestionEverythingButWHY 3 роки тому
“The four most expensive words in the English language are, ‘This time it’s different.’” --Sir John Templeton
@perisaizidanehanapi7931
@perisaizidanehanapi7931 3 роки тому
Polls can't predict the electoral college accurately, it's for the countries with popular voting system.
@dstblj5222
@dstblj5222 2 роки тому
Ish they can especially when you apply demo adjustments for states
@MarkDiSciullo
@MarkDiSciullo 3 роки тому
Funny...at the end this video is basically saying, "we'll probably get it wrong again."
@chainsburg
@chainsburg 3 роки тому
This did not age well.
@sowbirasmujo
@sowbirasmujo 3 роки тому
Barron’s eyeroll tho
@denny3161
@denny3161 3 роки тому
Tim Poole 24 min ago "Biden to Minnesota" 50k views
@racecar9910
@racecar9910 3 роки тому
Same s*** different day.
@andrewagita901
@andrewagita901 3 роки тому
Polls are only estimates gotten from a sample and does not represent the whole population
@Patrick-qs7nt
@Patrick-qs7nt 3 роки тому
A good Sample represents the population. So if the poll comes from a good sample, then it is a good indication of the population. In this case, the samples were not good because they over targeted college educated voters
@Odin31b
@Odin31b 3 роки тому
So a guess...
@chaimgluck8979
@chaimgluck8979 3 роки тому
Polls are a waste of time
@JimTempleman
@JimTempleman 3 роки тому
Their review did not mention how pollsters deal with those people who simply refuse to answer the poll: those who self-select out of responding to the poll. They can only adjust for this if they know the percentage of people from each group (of voter profile or candidate supporter) who are expected to opt out. In the current election, I suspect more Trump supporters than Biden supporters will opt out of responding to a poll. So how do they account for this?
@Odin31b
@Odin31b 3 роки тому
Weighting is you're problem. It's a wild guess at best.
@r.j.9683
@r.j.9683 3 роки тому
*VOTE 👉💙💙💙 all the way* *-Vote early in person or DROP direct to dropbox. (by mail won't be in time now?)* *VOTE For "NEW AMERICA"*
@QuestionEverythingButWHY
@QuestionEverythingButWHY 3 роки тому
"Forecasting is the art of saying what will happen, and then explaining why it didn't! " --Anonymous
@Kga18
@Kga18 3 роки тому
👍
@FinancialShinanigan
@FinancialShinanigan 3 роки тому
We learned not to trust polls
@kevinjuniorlaksamana6984
@kevinjuniorlaksamana6984 3 роки тому
ukposts.info/have/v-deo/onGbqKeIbIOqw30.html
@kevinjuniorlaksamana6984
@kevinjuniorlaksamana6984 3 роки тому
ukposts.info/have/v-deo/onGbqKeIbIOqw30.html
@LoganXHebda
@LoganXHebda 3 роки тому
Nothing
@QuestionEverythingButWHY
@QuestionEverythingButWHY 3 роки тому
"Forecasting future events is often like searching for a black cat in an unlit room, that may not even be there. " --Steve Davidson in The Crystal Ball.
@klam77
@klam77 3 роки тому
Trump: look at all those votes for ME from the nooks and crannies nobody saw before!
@kevinjuniorlaksamana6984
@kevinjuniorlaksamana6984 3 роки тому
ukposts.info/have/v-deo/onGbqKeIbIOqw30.html
@kevinjuniorlaksamana6984
@kevinjuniorlaksamana6984 3 роки тому
ukposts.info/have/v-deo/onGbqKeIbIOqw30.html
@trueleowdeo
@trueleowdeo 3 роки тому
what excuse will you guys give this time
@GINGI9519
@GINGI9519 3 роки тому
I love how that guy has a copy of Watchmen 😌
@barbarataychert4910
@barbarataychert4910 3 роки тому
Very informative but this info just makes me think that polls are even more likely to be inaccurate.
@Je.rone_
@Je.rone_ 3 роки тому
I think Joe Rogan has a point when it comes to polls,
@mchoe5890
@mchoe5890 3 роки тому
What’s his point?
@khing7237
@khing7237 3 роки тому
So basically they learnt nothing
@kevinjuniorlaksamana6984
@kevinjuniorlaksamana6984 3 роки тому
ukposts.info/have/v-deo/onGbqKeIbIOqw30.html
@kevinjuniorlaksamana6984
@kevinjuniorlaksamana6984 3 роки тому
ukposts.info/have/v-deo/onGbqKeIbIOqw30.html
@AvgJane19
@AvgJane19 3 роки тому
What makes you say that? They talked about the mistakes and how they're going to pivot this time. Of course not everyone will because these are private companies, but the majority learned their lesson.
@savagetuner2404
@savagetuner2404 3 роки тому
Fell short huh
@kevinjuniorlaksamana6984
@kevinjuniorlaksamana6984 3 роки тому
ukposts.info/have/v-deo/onGbqKeIbIOqw30.html
@kevinjuniorlaksamana6984
@kevinjuniorlaksamana6984 3 роки тому
ukposts.info/have/v-deo/onGbqKeIbIOqw30.html
@gary_rumain_you_peons
@gary_rumain_you_peons 3 роки тому
The pollsters haven't learned squat.
@auro1986
@auro1986 3 роки тому
isn't wsj a pollster?
@alastive
@alastive 3 роки тому
Wait, what? People have to manually dial numbers on the cell phone to conduct poll survey? I think WSJ you need new sets of the so called experts, it is in fact much easier to work the crowds since we are on smartphones, just go search for bluestack and autodialer app.
@redcapitalist
@redcapitalist 3 роки тому
they learned that instead of using minor "adjustments" such as oversampling certain voter groups to arrive at a desired outcome, you just come up with a desired outcome e.g. biden +14% then fill in the blanks. saves a lot of time, effort and money
@cridgemcking2471
@cridgemcking2471 3 роки тому
Simple, people like to troll when taking polls.
@hald-matalongos
@hald-matalongos 3 роки тому
tostitos dip
@denny3161
@denny3161 3 роки тому
Not any reporting on the laptop? I thought certainly WSJ would have something. Safely no. I hope an honest or at least simple observer source emerges....the time appears ripe.
@minalove2666
@minalove2666 3 роки тому
Polls means nothing
@bilsid
@bilsid 3 роки тому
the human species always looks to surprise, which is why it is so difficult to predict
@passiveagressive4983
@passiveagressive4983 3 роки тому
How do you account for the shy trumper voter. It is a thing
@shaylenpatel6904
@shaylenpatel6904 3 роки тому
Not significant enough to account for
@Odin31b
@Odin31b 3 роки тому
@@shaylenpatel6904 both of you use speculation about a guess.
@dragonchr15
@dragonchr15 3 роки тому
no, it's not
@BPOOP1000
@BPOOP1000 3 роки тому
S N E E D
@out_on_bail
@out_on_bail 3 роки тому
So essentially they have no clue
@allensu9363
@allensu9363 3 роки тому
If the polls are wrong again I’m suing the people who made the polls LOL
@michelbruns
@michelbruns 3 роки тому
instead of making a completely normal voting system.. 1 vote = 1 vote, no swing state or that bs
@jcg4350
@jcg4350 3 роки тому
The only thing clear is a flipped coin has more probability to get the winner right than those clowns.
@davidemmet7343
@davidemmet7343 3 роки тому
The Wall Street Journal, a once-great newspaper is now pathetically crawling in darkness!
@jordanuky
@jordanuky 3 роки тому
And the polls will also fall short in 2020.
@ohyeah3365
@ohyeah3365 3 роки тому
Fortunately it looks like there are fewer undecided this time, because we need Biden.
@myowncomputerstuff
@myowncomputerstuff 3 роки тому
I don't think anybody is really saying we "need Biden". It's just the "Trump" and the "not Trump" vote.
@nikhilsimhar
@nikhilsimhar 3 роки тому
This hasn’t aged well.
@stanko4333
@stanko4333 3 роки тому
Yee it kinda seems to me wsj has not learned its lesson from 2016. Well time to repeat it then. Cause repetition is the mother of knowledge.
@mico77720
@mico77720 3 роки тому
2:55 that's simply not true. Today there are bots that autodial to celphones
@antonysmyth2464
@antonysmyth2464 3 роки тому
True, but it’s outlawed.
@mico77720
@mico77720 3 роки тому
@@antonysmyth2464 oh, ok thanks!
@TheNeverposts
@TheNeverposts 3 роки тому
COMEY
@Grayson875
@Grayson875 3 роки тому
ukposts.info/have/v-deo/kGGmrZ1onWaDr3U.html
@mshieh70
@mshieh70 3 роки тому
u know the definition of insanity, doing the same things again and again expecting a different result. u r insane.
@jdroo
@jdroo 3 роки тому
When we've secretly been lying to pollsters to make the Left think Joe has a chance. Priceless.
@crashweaverda
@crashweaverda 3 роки тому
The title should have been this is what happens when the expert's get it wrong. Then we ended up with 4 years of nuts. There really screwed since alot of folks will be voting by mail this election.
@BdPickUp
@BdPickUp 3 роки тому
Что у меня работает - SurveyTime, я получаю 1 доллар США с каждого заполненного мной опроса, и они платят сразу после Я заполняю его, ссылка Surveytime.me , Звучит не так уж много, но вы можете проводить несколько опросов в день, и это работает во всем мире :)
@mshieh70
@mshieh70 3 роки тому
if u r wrong again this election, can u quit your job?? all of you.
@synthecr6874
@synthecr6874 3 роки тому
I'm the 16th commenter.//PROUDLY//😅💯
@analara9872
@analara9872 3 роки тому
you better have voted for biden
@synthecr6874
@synthecr6874 3 роки тому
@@analara9872 🤔🤔💦
@ezekielhensley7614
@ezekielhensley7614 3 роки тому
First
@professorpiggos
@professorpiggos 3 роки тому
first
@kingdrogo6124
@kingdrogo6124 3 роки тому
Started of by contradicting yourself ...polls werent wrong then proceeds to give a list why they were wrong ....they were right about the popular vote but showed trump way behinds in all battle grounds states..and they were wrong and they are wrong again
@reenasundram2940
@reenasundram2940 3 роки тому
Polls won’t work only votes work
@dnguyen787
@dnguyen787 3 роки тому
The difference of this year to 2016 is people know how bad Trump is! Lol
@BulbaTheFrog
@BulbaTheFrog 3 роки тому
VOTE VOTE VOTE ANS GET PEOPLE TO VOTE ITS THE ONLY WAY TO ASSURE A VICTORY! #TOOBIGTORIG #BIDENHARRIS2020🌊💙🌊
@lucianavimentani432
@lucianavimentani432 3 роки тому
T R U M P - P E N C E _ 2 0 2 0
@kevinjuniorlaksamana6984
@kevinjuniorlaksamana6984 3 роки тому
ukposts.info/have/v-deo/onGbqKeIbIOqw30.html
@kevinjuniorlaksamana6984
@kevinjuniorlaksamana6984 3 роки тому
ukposts.info/have/v-deo/onGbqKeIbIOqw30.html
@arenahubbard9960
@arenahubbard9960 3 роки тому
Trump 2020
@salman1sa
@salman1sa 3 роки тому
Trump 2020❤❤❤❤
@RadAcull
@RadAcull 3 роки тому
Vote red all the way down
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