The Economy of Japan: how a Superpower Fell from Grace in Four Decades

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Money & Macro

Money & Macro

День тому

In 1989, the world was simultaneously fearful and in awe of the rise of the magnificent Japanese economy. So…. What the hell happened?
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Narrated and produced by Dr. Joeri Schasfoort (University of Cape Town & University of Groningen)
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Script and Sources:
Check out the sources (a.o. Richard Werner's books, Bank for International Settlement speeches, and Japanese newspapers) that I used for this video in the the script that you can find on my blog:
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Timestamps:
0:00​ - introduction
1:20​ - 1980s
8:03​ - 1990s
14:46 - 2000s
21:34 - 2010s
29:19 - the future & conclusion
Attribution:
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Further description:
While Japans economic might is still widely respected, it used to be the rising superstar of Asia. How did the economy of this Asian archipelago, which came so close to overtaking America as the number one economic superpower, end in deflation and stagnation?
I mean, by now it’s gotten so bad that the Bank of Japan, in a desperate attempt to turn this situation around, has bought up to 70% of government debt and has even become the biggest shareholder of corporate Japan.
This mini-documentary covers the period from 1979 till 2021 and spans Japan's asset bubble decade (featuring window guidance and the housing + stock bubble) as well as the three following decades that were characterized by debt-deflation and a banking crisis, the inflation expectations trap and population decline, respectively. It also has a critical look at Abenomics (from prime minister Shinzo Abe) and contains recommendations for the future of the Japanese economy.

КОМЕНТАРІ: 4 600
@MoneyMacro
@MoneyMacro 2 роки тому
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@user-nf9xc7ww7m
@user-nf9xc7ww7m 2 роки тому
Probably a silly question, but isn't the central bank technically part of the govt? Sure, its "independent", but it is a creature created by the state. So could not one technically say the govt is buying its own debt and printing its own money? God, I wish I was a currency issuer. I'll do some quantitative easing on the bar and stores. 😋
@MoneyMacro
@MoneyMacro 2 роки тому
@@user-nf9xc7ww7m For sure. While technically independent... they very often practically are not independent.
@ankitait2
@ankitait2 2 роки тому
@@MoneyMacro Do you think incentivizing micro, small and medium enterprises through grants, subsidies etc. (USA does that to a an extent with their startups, or at least certain US states do). I feel the big 3 of the Asian Economies i.e. China, Japan, South Korea put too much money in the hands of large corporations who either price out, or flat out just buy and remove smaller competitors. Less competition also incentivizes these companies to lock money in assets like real estate, stock buybacks and dividends and not invest money in R&D or other growth programs.
@Gnefitisis
@Gnefitisis 2 роки тому
@@ankitait2 I think you're right. Japan is famous for large mega corporations or keiretsu. Look up the "Big 6," now I bet you will probably find something in your home made by those corporations, unless you refuse to buy Japanese (for whatever political reason).
@thegeneralist7527
@thegeneralist7527 2 роки тому
Great analysis, but I think you have to emphasize the negative impact of high taxes. High taxes have many negative feedbacks, both on corporate investment and growth and personal initiative and growth. The reward for higher revenue and growth are higher taxes - not an incentive at all but a disincentive. This is the perverse logic of socialism and communism. Why work hard and grow when the state will only take what you have earned and squander it? Why work hard and take risks when the state will take care of you in any case? Why bring in another generation of wage slaves when you know their future will not be any better than your own, and more likely worse? People vote with their time as well as their money. Worry about COVID, 'climate change' and other imaginary evils only worsen the disincentive to work hard and take risks. No risk, no reward. In the absence of a reward people do nothing. High taxes are a punishment for being successful and a disincentive for efficient government and good governance.
@bryanvo7749
@bryanvo7749 2 роки тому
A country that has been in constant economic crisis for almost 4 decades now and still among one of the richest countries in the world. They must have been insanely rich back in the 80s.
@eIectrostatic
@eIectrostatic 2 роки тому
A country that builds up a world-leading technological base can afford to be in constant economic crisis. The real trouble only begins when it starts falling behind technologically and regresses in the global industrial and logistical food-chain. Which is what is now beginning to happen with Japan, though there's still some way to go before this will be felt by the Japanese.
@papabear90
@papabear90 2 роки тому
Hence why the US sanctioned them
@zoey5104
@zoey5104 2 роки тому
Japan's GDP/capita was higher than US and all of Europe (except Switzerland obviously) at late 80s until 90s.
@matthewrogerson9119
@matthewrogerson9119 2 роки тому
@@BWong1234 collect 50 cents
@wangyingsen458
@wangyingsen458 2 роки тому
As an economic colony of USA, Japan have to surrender in the digital competition, Japan give up the leadership in semiconductor field voluntarily.
@joni1405
@joni1405 2 роки тому
"There are 4 types of economies: Developed, undeveloped, Japan and Argentina" - Simon Kuznets
@paulc7400
@paulc7400 2 роки тому
Okay, I with a burgeoning interest in economic knowledge, what is like one sentence that will basically inform me of Argentinian economics?
@El-s
@El-s 2 роки тому
Basically, their economy gets out of the mud, they don’t spend it properly, ultra inflation, economical downturn, repeat
@paulc7400
@paulc7400 2 роки тому
@@El-s So broke folks mentality around here as in they get money, don't know what to do with it, then spend/lose it all and become broke again. Thanks for the reply
@alangivre2474
@alangivre2474 2 роки тому
I'm argentinian :,(
@alangivre2474
@alangivre2474 2 роки тому
We got 50 years of economic stagnation, high stagflation, and the most volatile economy of the world, based on dollar denominated debt that goes to carry trade.
@Bestmann3n
@Bestmann3n 2 роки тому
I live in japan. People here save like crazy. It's actually kind of insane. It would be interesting if you made a video on the japanese housing market. It's quite different from most countries in the west. There is no housing shortage here, even in places in Tokyo and Osaka, which is a blessing if you have lived in any major western city. On the other hand, buildings themselves don't seem to hold value. Investing in a home and making a profit isn't really a thing here. I wonder how that affect things like mobility. If you buy a house here in Japan you are never going to get that investment back unless the land itself goes up in value so why would you ever sell your house and move?
@lukaradojevic7195
@lukaradojevic7195 Рік тому
Houses are not supposed to be speculative asset in the first place,why would you think that you should get rich just by buying and selling houses while not building anything in the process.
@MrSupernova111
@MrSupernova111 Рік тому
@@lukaradojevic7195 . Absolutely! My greedy American counterparts can't seem to understand that profiteering of residential RE is the same as leeching on the back of the working class. Its a disgrace that in the US you need to be in debt for a lifetime in order to own your home.
@raczgabor659
@raczgabor659 Рік тому
@@MrSupernova111 The comment still points out an interesting aspect: if residental (working class people) also cant turn their home over for profit, doesn't that hurt mobility? I dont know how high is the geographic mobility in Japan, but with higher mobility, the working people have better bargaining power with wages and that would push them up.
@natheayn6111
@natheayn6111 Рік тому
@@raczgabor659 If all houses are increasing in value then for the purpose of mobility, owners are just running in place and it shouldn't make a difference. What matters is relative movements - if your rural home goes up 10% or 10k while an urban home goes up 10% or 20k, that home has gotten farther away for you - decreased mobility. Non-owners especially would have decreased mobility over time if we're talking about where they can own, as prices run away from them. So, rising home prices hurts mobility and exacerbates economic inequality while stagnant prices are actually good for mobility. It would be harder to move to another country and buy property if yours has stayed flat while that country is rising though. You also can't use appreciation on your home to subsidize your lifestyle then, so appreciation or bust!
@user-fn8in9lo4h
@user-fn8in9lo4h Рік тому
japan,china not japan,japan is part of china🇨🇳you learn history go
@lutenic6111
@lutenic6111 2 роки тому
Japan lost the early market lead they had in Lithography sector rather too easily without even trying. I am a IT professional and we have lot of Japanese clients and I was shocked to see how rudimentary applications and websites were of our Japanese clients. Even phone apps were simply weblinks for their main websites for long. They missed the IT and Digital bus for sure
@muhammadhassankiyani8953
@muhammadhassankiyani8953 Рік тому
What technology do you work in?
@AkamiChannel
@AkamiChannel Рік тому
Yes. One part of it is that software developers also sometimes need to be somewhat good at English in order to thrive in their field. It makes it that much harder. I know people who have quit software development because of this.
@coyotepeyote
@coyotepeyote Рік тому
Many Japanese companies still use fax machines as well, it's kind of an odd feature of modern Japan.
@johnl9361
@johnl9361 Рік тому
The was a thing called the Plaza Accords where Regan basically said "you are gonna nerf your high tech industry or else our Marines are gonna fuck your shit up".
@muhammadhassankiyani8953
@muhammadhassankiyani8953 Рік тому
@@johnl9361 But, in the end, your marines got fucked up by the ragtag militias of Afghanistan. Japan was weak. It had no support from other neighbouring countries. USA had support of entire Europe + Australia + New Zealand + Israel etc. Japan has failed at making alliances. It should have made an alliance with China, ASEAN states and both Koreas the moment America threatened them.
@MGood-ij1hi
@MGood-ij1hi 2 роки тому
I remember when , on paper , financially Tokyo was more valuable than the entire USA ; and Japan Inc. was going to rule the world. Anxiety over Japan was real. Now when most people think of Japan they think about animae.
@MGood-ij1hi
@MGood-ij1hi 2 роки тому
@@pinkcichlid Oh yes, good point.
@DansBLACKFLAG
@DansBLACKFLAG 2 роки тому
@@MGood-ij1hi I think hot coffee from vending machines. Oh, and panties.
@hungchoonghow5857
@hungchoonghow5857 2 роки тому
And porn...
@knowvoid9958
@knowvoid9958 2 роки тому
They worked so hard that they forgot to have children to inherit and keep the system going. No one thinks they are ready for a kid but you have to do it anyways, luckily people in America are irresponsible enough to have a stable 2.1 birthrate thus making the economy stablish at least more than a bad population country.
@calvinborelli3671
@calvinborelli3671 2 роки тому
@@knowvoid9958 we don't really have a sustainable birth rate, we just subsidize it with immigration
@youcantata
@youcantata 2 роки тому
You missed few points: Japan missed digital revolution train. 1. Japan is slow to improve worker productivity using advanced IT/network technology. 2. They were slow to invest in growing digital industry like semiconductor, display, smartphone and software. 3. Advent of strong competitors like South Korea, China and even Taiwan. 4. Low worker wage and long work hours, which led to low consumer spendings and low fertility. 5. One-party politics: no political impetus to innovate society and industry.
@MoneyMacro
@MoneyMacro 2 роки тому
Fair points. I'm wondering though... don't a lot of these also count for e.g. Germany? Which didn't have that much a fall from grace. With the exception of one-party politics of course. Good point!
@dimelo3027
@dimelo3027 2 роки тому
Too young sometimes naïve. Many things happening behind closed doors, Japan companies being sold out to foreigners, like how Nissan hired a CEO from Brazil who turned out to be very corrupted and ruined Nissan. Japan is under the stronghold of American control.
@Nozawachter
@Nozawachter 2 роки тому
I agree Japan did miss digitization train (bus), but that’s like saying Amazon will destroy all book stores… and it was true Amazon was destroying All book stores until Borders went Bankrupt and Barnes and Nobles was the lone survivor and actually did better because they were the last champion of brick and mortar for all those who still know that experience, won’t let that die. Now Amazon has their own brick and mortar stores trying to plunge that knife into them which seems very unsportsmanlike to me… But anyway, I think this example says a lot. EV car revolution will probably kill most of the current players, but it will allow small companies like Mazda a small lease on life as it attracts business from the aging fans of combustion engines. Likewise, a lot future speculation doesn’t take into account how humans can’t let go as they age, and the oldest demographic, is the one that still has money in Japan. I feel the digitization train that was missed was touted as a if you miss it you will be left behind, but I’m not so sure it’s destination was a sure success. My feeling is Japan will actually be a trailblazer because of being on the frontlines of having a slivering population and that will allow them better thread the needle and find the best landing spot between “efficiency at all costs” from AI / Robotics, and not throwing the elderly under the bus because of changing times. And even if they can’t thread this needle, just like stated in the video with all news-outlets self censoring the long bank lines for greater good. Japan had this “best for society hive mind” rare in other societies. If things really got bad, that could kick in and swing popular opinion in a heart beat. If things really got bad, I know you will see many elderly volunteering to no longer become a burden on society. When Fukushima happened, many elderly volunteered (but were rejected) to be onsite communications relays in the contamination area. I think it is human nature to not want to burden those you love, and to find a way to contribute and be remembered.
@miraphycs7377
@miraphycs7377 2 роки тому
one word. Plazza accord.
@pygmalion8952
@pygmalion8952 2 роки тому
@@miraphycs7377 that is two words.
@kingclover1395
@kingclover1395 Рік тому
I remember when I was a kid in the '80s and there was such American interest in Japan. Of course there was all the talk about Japan crushing our economy or whatever with all their Sony Walkmans and Japanese cars, But I also remember how eveyone loved Japanese products and Nintendo and movies about Japan and just everything Japanese. And I had all these T-shirts and clothes and toys with the Japanese flag and Japanese writing on it. And it was all the rage. Everywhere you looked you saw something with that big red ball on it with Japanese writing under it.
@CausticLemons7
@CausticLemons7 2 роки тому
This was the first video I've seen from your channel. I really appreciate how you ask for feedback from those people perhaps most qualified to give it. Overall this video seemed very in depth and covered many of the often complex mechanisms of economics. I feel like I learned a lot about Japan, modern economies, and how people affect each other. Thanks for your hard work!
@hungchoonghow5857
@hungchoonghow5857 2 роки тому
Remember "Back to the Future 2"? Bob Zemeckis envisioned 2015 to be when most Americans had to work in Japanese corporations. Because the movie was made in 1989. How things have changed since then.
@WeWaltRun
@WeWaltRun 2 роки тому
huh wow, I guess the same is true in Die Hard too with Nakatomi Plaze
@paulklp8262
@paulklp8262 2 роки тому
Blade Runner, Cyberpunk 2077.
@leonhenry4861
@leonhenry4861 2 роки тому
Switch Japan for China
@davism3800
@davism3800 2 роки тому
MCFLY!!!!
@pacoramon9468
@pacoramon9468 2 роки тому
Just change the Japon for China, nothing has changed.
@user-jg1rh4bg4o
@user-jg1rh4bg4o 2 роки тому
I'm a Japanese high school student and I was benefiting from the boom when my parents were in their twenties I've been in recession since I was born. Damn.
@delvinrb
@delvinrb 2 роки тому
at least Japan didn't go from rich to poor country
@craigthebrute8339
@craigthebrute8339 2 роки тому
@@delvinrb worse, they went from a young country to an old country
@lucadesanctis563
@lucadesanctis563 2 роки тому
Me, an Italian: first time?
@holgerjahndel3623
@holgerjahndel3623 2 роки тому
Also the pension or rent system of Japan is problematic.
@craigthebrute8339
@craigthebrute8339 2 роки тому
@@holgerjahndel3623 what is that system?
@jiawei309
@jiawei309 2 роки тому
Excellent content. This has to be one of the better, if not best, UKposts video essays discussing Japan's economic stagnation short of a full blown university lecture. Looking forward to your future content!
@JohannBBravo
@JohannBBravo Рік тому
i rate this video 5/5! should be a quality indicator for stuff like that! i truly appreciate your work! this is a very insightful intelligent overview over japanese economy and almost easy to understand! keep it up! i saw some videos from you but now its time to subscribe :D
@Duck-wc9de
@Duck-wc9de 2 роки тому
in japan: media, individualy, decided not to report a situation in the best interest of japan in portugal: a television channel announced a news that was not entirely true and a bank that was going through difficult times collapsed
@olympia5758
@olympia5758 2 роки тому
Wait, what? Please elaborate more on this. I am interested.
@Duck-wc9de
@Duck-wc9de 2 роки тому
@@olympia5758 Banif was a Portuguese bank that went bankrupt in 2015, allegedly due to a news that TVI (second most important television channel in Portugal) released on December 13, 2015, announcing the closure of Banif, in fact, the government Portuguese only mentioned that he was going to investigate the bank and it could be closed if the investegation lead to, but the news said that the bank was going to fail, which resulted in losses of 984 million euros in deposits, according to the Public Ministry of portugal. this is an article from on MP: “Following the news, Banif's liquidity situation deteriorated due to the decrease in customer deposits, which fell by 984 million euros in a week. such content was harmful and offensive to the credibility, consideration and prestige, trust and reputation” of Banif. TVI's news has precipitated the closure of Banif, given the rush of the Bank's customers to withdraw their deposits, as they thought that the bank that only had a government investigation into a problem was going to collapse. this led to the bank actually collapsing.
@olympia5758
@olympia5758 2 роки тому
@@Duck-wc9de Wow, that is fucked up. And was TVI even held accountable for destroying the bank? That's just so unfair.
@jwadaow
@jwadaow 2 роки тому
The media has got worse since then.
@olympia5758
@olympia5758 2 роки тому
@@jwadaow The media ruining your life over a comment made 15 years ago is one thing, destroying a whole fucking bank is another. And they weren’t even held accountable for doing it.
@wacky6136
@wacky6136 2 роки тому
The 1980's thru the 1990's were Japan's Golden Years. The days of the Sony Walkman! Thanks for the video.
@raifikarj6698
@raifikarj6698 2 роки тому
Hmm yeah but with that golden year coming in with them is the end of a bubble. Because it was just temporary or short term. One thing i noticed is it was because Plaza Accord and the US want to stop Japan succesfull exports industry to destroy USA economy. So by switching the stable rise of the economy they got into traps that give insane boost in short term by borrowing the future this result after the golden era ends Japan enter the depression with no real clue how to get out of it.
@allanmetsar123
@allanmetsar123 2 роки тому
Sony's walkman was to the 80-ies what iPhone's been to the 2010's
@armonepaiomar6243
@armonepaiomar6243 2 роки тому
1970's-1990's were the golden age mine you.
@supahsmashbro
@supahsmashbro 2 роки тому
Until the Plaza Accords
@madsam0320
@madsam0320 2 роки тому
It seems there is no magic wands to revive the economy, but to produce tangible goods and services for the consumers.
@_aiborie
@_aiborie Рік тому
Wow this video was so well made! Thanks so much for breaking this down into digestible chunks or sections. Really helpful for casual viewers like me.
@myczxr
@myczxr 2 роки тому
finally brought myself to watch this video, and i have to say i thoroughly enjoyed it. i'll be sticking around for more of this, great job!
@Nonamearisto
@Nonamearisto 2 роки тому
Keep in mind that Japan's "fall" was from 2nd to 3rd place, and even if they fell to 4th or 5th, they'd still be a highly-developed, rich economy with high living standards and a high GDP per capita. It's just that they used to be growing rapidly, and now they're mostly stuck where they are in absolute terms, while falling behind the growth of other countries, which puts their relative position at risk.
@hectorr4956
@hectorr4956 2 роки тому
china ,usa , even russia has more money, japan is too small and dont really like anybody esle , soo they lose
@Nonamearisto
@Nonamearisto 2 роки тому
@@hectorr4956 Russia doesn't have as much money as Japan.
@hectorr4956
@hectorr4956 2 роки тому
@@Nonamearisto russia could wipe japan off the map in 3 hours what are you talking about
@Nonamearisto
@Nonamearisto 2 роки тому
@@hectorr4956 Russia has nuclear weapons, but that doesn't mean it's rich.
@Edinburghdreams
@Edinburghdreams 2 роки тому
@@hectorr4956 Russia rank 11th in the world based on GDP compared to 3rd place Japan. Difference in figures: Japan 5.06 trillion, Russia, 1.48 trillion. Japan's economy is more than three times the size of Russia's!
@Oldschool747
@Oldschool747 2 роки тому
The algorithm has lead me here, this channel is gonna get big soon
@svenwesterbeek1615
@svenwesterbeek1615 2 роки тому
same here
@colhammer1
@colhammer1 2 роки тому
Hail to the algorithm.
@enzoh7763
@enzoh7763 2 роки тому
Same with me here , algorithms is a God sent, this time.. Good topic ,great content, I learn a lot .
@raymondchow8722
@raymondchow8722 2 роки тому
But not Japan
@Informalities
@Informalities 2 роки тому
Same bro. Economics explained is gonna have a homie!
@AlfordLau
@AlfordLau 2 роки тому
Wow, finally an indepth video made easy to understand on the topic of recent Japanese economic history. Thank you.
@alexanderstefanov6474
@alexanderstefanov6474 2 роки тому
I was in Japan in 2019, it looked decades ahead of the US and most of Europe. There might be structural economic issues but the country has one of the best infrastructures in the world and it's an amazing place
@PierSilver
@PierSilver 2 роки тому
What it looks like and what it is like are two very different things, though. The infrastructure is there because the population density allows it, imho (not only that, but it's a prerequisite). That's why the Netherlands have good infrastructure too. Let's talk about working hours, social mobility, ease to open small businesses. I'm not saying Japan is bas, but it's not decades ahead, imho.
@e.h.8936
@e.h.8936 2 роки тому
problem is that Japan was like a good century ahead of Europe and US back in the 70s, so being a head for only a few decades ahead of the west is not a compliment at this point in time for Japan. Just because the west got continually more fucked doesn’t mean Japanese people are satisfied with their own progress. Japanese people strive to be the best and for its own sake, look at their manufacturing and engineering, American and European cars can only dream of being ok the same quality of Japanese cars.
@05tsamra
@05tsamra 2 роки тому
the real reason is the plaza accord
@devinmes1868
@devinmes1868 6 місяців тому
East Asian countries tend to greatly value appearances (for many cultural reasons that relate to their collectivist roots). Upon further scrutiny, you may find that Japan isn't as advanced as it initially appears.
@roro-mm7cc
@roro-mm7cc 2 роки тому
There is an award winning documentary about this called “princes of the yen”
@MoneyMacro
@MoneyMacro 2 роки тому
It's one of my sources (the book that is) :)
@Shadowsuit
@Shadowsuit 2 роки тому
The book is really great and explain far more the mechanism underlying the took over
@roro-mm7cc
@roro-mm7cc 2 роки тому
@@MoneyMacro Yeh - just suggested the documentary as most people probably won’t have the time to read the whole book and the documentary is here on UKposts. It’s a good overview.
@sayeretjoez9297
@sayeretjoez9297 2 роки тому
ukposts.info/have/v-deo/bV16jpCvsJhiqH0.html
@IchimokuCloud
@IchimokuCloud 2 роки тому
The documentary is so good.
@IchimokuCloud
@IchimokuCloud 2 роки тому
It wasn’t the Kyoto Palace = California. It was the Tokyo Chiyoda Palace.
@Gnefitisis
@Gnefitisis 2 роки тому
Still... fucking crazy
@MoneyMacro
@MoneyMacro 2 роки тому
Yeah someone else noticed as well. My bad. I stand corrected
@Sean-ll5cm
@Sean-ll5cm 2 роки тому
@@Gnefitisis Apparently the Australian government sold their Tokyo embassy for over AU$600 million dollars during that time and it helped pay off the national debt
@Gnefitisis
@Gnefitisis 2 роки тому
@@Sean-ll5cm lol genius
@erniec5465
@erniec5465 2 роки тому
I enjoyed your video and finally understanding a bit move. I was sent to Japan in the late 80’s to do some work and training. I saw a booming economy and imagined what it would be like to emigrated; a missed opportunity. Years later what happened? why Japan economy was not getting , now i have a good idea. I still have that 1000 yen note at that time it was like buying a $10 CDN cup of coffee (not the can coffee from the vending machines) . That coffee tasted great.
@deadby15
@deadby15 Рік тому
The strange thing is, Japan hasn’t been doing great,but it hasn’t been doing terribly, either. No wage increase, but no price hike, either. Very low unemployment rate (less than 3%). The crime rate has been getting lower during the “lost” decades actually. I personally think slowly shifting from the obsession with economic growth to sustainable, non-wasteful lifestyle is a desirable thing, so I don’t think it’s all negative to lose some excessive steam.
@freespeechisneverwrong9351
@freespeechisneverwrong9351 Рік тому
We need to tell all the economists around the world this. Growth is not always required.
@richard35791
@richard35791 Рік тому
You must e kidding, while daily needs still keep higher despite deflation, there almost no middle class in kapan now
@professionalretard4293
@professionalretard4293 Рік тому
B-but numbers go vroom
@meganlukes6679
@meganlukes6679 Рік тому
Unemployment in Japan is extremely different than in other countries. Look up the lost generation and the hikikomori problem. The crash in birth rates reflects the malaise, and the situation is just going to get harder as the population aging accelerates and the worker:dependent ratio worsens.
@mirvio9741
@mirvio9741 Рік тому
Have you talked to the real people living in japan? Not the rich ones but those who are struggling. Ther are so miserable
@toyoashihara6242
@toyoashihara6242 2 роки тому
Good job!! As a Japanese citizen, I thought that your views are quite comprehensive and well-balanced. I think this is a very good introduction to what happened to the Japanese economy during the last 4 decades, especially the last 3 decades of stagnation.
@MoneyMacro
@MoneyMacro 2 роки тому
Thanks!! Very happy to hear that.
@stephenbaker7079
@stephenbaker7079 Рік тому
A very generous response.
@NeostormXLMAX
@NeostormXLMAX Рік тому
@@MoneyMacroyou left out usa intervention
@user-fn8in9lo4h
@user-fn8in9lo4h Рік тому
china number one🇨🇳,you are chinese,not japan,japan is part of china
@stevendunn2501
@stevendunn2501 2 роки тому
I've been living in Japan for 12 years. And the economic health of the average Japanese worker has gotten worse. Poverty in Japan is a growing problem that no one talks about.
@2001lextalionis
@2001lextalionis 2 роки тому
yup, its not getting any better either. its especially hard for children and single mothers
@yuvalgabay1023
@yuvalgabay1023 2 роки тому
@@2001lextalionis this is a big reason why they population stagnest. People can beraly support them self, and people are way over work and over presherd+ the super haircael biasness in Japan makes it even worst. The funny thing that most japanese"incels" are just people whit small company's/independent workers. Who the hole society looks down off
@yuvalgabay1023
@yuvalgabay1023 2 роки тому
@@xXDESTINYMBXx fuck I hate Taiping on the phone
@yuvalgabay1023
@yuvalgabay1023 2 роки тому
@@xXDESTINYMBXx + we can also seeing it in thier porn . The more kinky and deprive the porn get you know more and more people are getting edicting to this.(I'm not against porn but we can see the reasons why exesive porn usage are coming from and what it's causing). In Japan this case is really bad whan alot of thier porn is really fucked upp
@xXDESTINYMBXx
@xXDESTINYMBXx 2 роки тому
@@yuvalgabay1023 I just say ntr to this
@kamilsonsalla2491
@kamilsonsalla2491 2 роки тому
thanks man for great video, I got a lot of answers I was looking for in very convenient format
@anonymous.youtuber
@anonymous.youtuber 2 роки тому
Outstanding report , very well explained also. I’m subscribed ! 👍
@c8Lorraine1
@c8Lorraine1 2 роки тому
I lived in Japan and one thing I noticed, corporations were expected to over employ people to soak up the numbers of unemployed in society. Young people are paid less money because it’s expected they still live at home with parents. Girls were expected to marry and fall out of the employment market.
@beezelsub
@beezelsub Рік тому
Not Western. But practical ideas.
@beezelsub
@beezelsub Рік тому
Do the young there still marry?
@nomobobby
@nomobobby Рік тому
@@beezelsub Imfamously, not since the 90's. The rates of marriage and childbirth remain terribly low no matter what has been tried.
@qewiu830
@qewiu830 10 місяців тому
@@nomobobby Have they tried not overworking their population?
@Adhjie
@Adhjie 9 місяців тому
​@@qewiu830karoushi....the progressive one is in eg Paolo interview
@daddyscience
@daddyscience 3 роки тому
Great neutral read of Japan's economy over the past 40 years.
@MoneyMacro
@MoneyMacro 3 роки тому
Thanks!
@ErikPT
@ErikPT Рік тому
I agree Erik
@popocucu7749
@popocucu7749 2 роки тому
Glad I have found your channel. Very informative! Good job
@Staul_
@Staul_ Рік тому
I literally watched this last night and thought Abe would do great things. Woke up this morning and he’s been assassinated.
@starman4840
@starman4840 Рік тому
It’s a dark world. That’s why we need to cherish these people more when they’re here
@sydneyshinshi
@sydneyshinshi 3 місяці тому
Yes that was sad.
@ToushikaCuber
@ToushikaCuber 2 роки тому
29:45 "When something isn't working, the answer is rarely 'well, let's just do more of it'". Welcome to Japan, where people plan something once, try it, and if it doesn't work, just continue doing it, because it is supposed to work a day or another. Japanese people just hate admitting they were wrong. It is a matter of dignity, even if that is completely counter-productive. PS : I live and work in Japan.
@Meonium
@Meonium 2 роки тому
Sounds just like me lol
@matttube9369
@matttube9369 2 роки тому
Unfortunately its true.
@Lexman00
@Lexman00 2 роки тому
Huh? Sounds more like the USA. Over here people won't have any type of criticism, and the people that make bad choices in life are not held to take responsibility for them, they are instead subsidized. At least in Japan people are very by the book, and more importantly, they believe in personal responsibility and pulling your own weight in this world.
@lornespry
@lornespry 2 роки тому
I mostly agree with your comment, although I don't know how much it has to do with "dignity". I've read quite a bit about Japan's 'Pacific War' - WWII - much it written by Japanese historians (in translation). The same thing applied. The brass hats in the halls of power would devise a plan. If it worked once, they'd keep repeating the same strategy over and over despite the most tragic results. (BTW: I live and work in Japan too.)
@linming5610
@linming5610 2 роки тому
It's more on because it worked in the past. Look at their high quality products and services back then. But now, the standards are rising but they are not. They stagnated because they became too comfortable with their past glory.
@Yutaro-Yoshii
@Yutaro-Yoshii 2 роки тому
I'm seeing more and more migrant workers working at shops and convenience stores since Abenomics has started. Your analysis is spot on! Also it's true that there is save and reserve attitude among the youth. Especially because of the prospect that the government pension program might someday fail and we have to support ourselves on our savings. Even if it doesn't fail, we will still be paying more for the program than what we will get in the end since the money goes directly to the more populous baby boomer generation which is currently being served.
@ayoCC
@ayoCC 2 роки тому
It's a complex problem, Germany (where i am from) has easy access to workers who migrate over the land with trains, and can even out the thinning populating with policy on how many people we import. So population is growing, but birthrate is very bad. Japan is locked into an island. But as long as a country can create all goods and services a person needs, it's good to live in that country, and that's true wealth isn't it.
@wamnicho
@wamnicho 2 роки тому
@@ayoCC Looks like Feminism is killing all the so called rich countries with their fake economies, eventually you will start seeing social chaos and eventual civil wars in these countries especially the ones with massive non-white immigration
@ayoCC
@ayoCC 2 роки тому
​@@wamnicho Countries can't die with strong systems and infrastructure. In rich countries most people live quiet lives, but 90% are happily enjoying hobbies or passions. I'm not sure why you think those things are destroying the countries.
@wamnicho
@wamnicho 2 роки тому
@@ayoCC countries are made up of people, infrastructure is secondary, without people, the infrastructure can't survive. What's the point of having nice infrastructure when everyone is over 70 years old
@sergejpomelov2046
@sergejpomelov2046 2 роки тому
@@wamnicho Actually, it is pretty much the other way round. In Europe, the highest fertility rates are in most "feminist" countries, where governments provide enough services like preschools, so that women could get back to work as soon as possible instead of staying home with children. The lowest fertility rates are in fact in more conservative/traditional/catholic countries like Italy or Poland.
@monsieurcharlus7248
@monsieurcharlus7248 2 роки тому
Woaw, great job of research. Hats off!
@boldbaatardashdorj9389
@boldbaatardashdorj9389 Рік тому
Very nice made content with full of valuable logical and factual informations. Thanks man!
@FranciscoLeonsuperoptimo
@FranciscoLeonsuperoptimo 2 роки тому
I've been surprised about how the meaning of the word "Entrepreneurship" is relatively unknown by the japanese population. Young people there are too afraid of raising their own business.
@iannordin5250
@iannordin5250 2 роки тому
It doesn't help that Japanese business (and on that note business in East Asia as a whole) is deeply rooted in a smothering corporate-aristocracy mindset. You don't have this idea of disruption or start-up culture, instead you have an entrenched ideal of the company as an institution that everyone in society is supposed to work for because these large companies provide for society. This all started with the Zaibatsu - a conglomeration of nationally sanctioned companies owned by a few privileged families at the start of the Meiji period. After their (on paper) dissolution following the defeat of the Empire, they fractured into many smaller, though no less entrenched Keiretsu, which are large companies that operate more like great webs of subsidiaries rather than the out and out monopolies of the Zaibatsu. This web of generational influence, red tape, and outright corruption make starting robust businesses from scratch very difficult in Japan.
@FranciscoLeonsuperoptimo
@FranciscoLeonsuperoptimo 2 роки тому
@@iannordin5250 That explains clearly the stagnation of the japanese economy, since those Keiretsu companies have been favored by generous credits granted by the Window Guidance police from the Bank of Japan. Independent business cannot compete in that environment dominated by big corporations.
@talisikid1618
@talisikid1618 2 роки тому
@@iannordin5250 how is that different from the fascist system in the West? And capitalism is fascist in nature. It is a system run of, for, & by the monied elites. It is not synonymous with market system. Big business stymies competition & usurps innovation for their benefit. Just look at how small business was shut down but corporations weren’t during the pandemic. Or how hard it is for competitors to break into social media.
@phuturephunk
@phuturephunk 2 роки тому
@@talisikid1618 In a lot of ways there isn't much difference except for a couple of structural and cultural aspects. Structurally, our mentality here is 'well, some huge honking conglomerate or corporate titan is going to run the show.' It doesn't necessarily need to be some sort of 'traditional' legacy operation, just that some behemoth exists. This contrasts with the 'tradition' aspects of Japanese culture where they have specific keiretsu that will be propped up as zombie operations, something that has plagued the history of Japan over the last few decades. We don't really do zombies in the US outside of specific areas that we consider strategically valuable to the entire nation. Japanese business and central banking have literally propped up companies that should die. That literally have no reason to exist, strategic or otherwise...but they do provide jobs. On your second point, innovation is hard and the technical expertise needed to engage in any market only goes up with time. You can't really expect this high minded ideal of 'competition' when you're talking about things like chip etching, pharmaceuticals, datacom or even more 'traditional' industrial activities that have existed forever like opening up a metallurgy operation. Both require billions in capital to even get off the ground. This is going to continue as things go on and get even more strained. The days of actually breaking an entire new industry segment on a wish and a prayer are somewhat over. Things were simpler back then when this was true. This also brings up the canard that small businesses are somehow 'the backbone' of the American economy. They are not. They never have been. The prime movers in the economy are the largest industrial and commercial concerns that we have. They generate the initial impulse that then causes movement in everything that's connected to it. Saying that small business is the prime mover is like saying the starter motor of your car is the thing that actually propels it down the road.
@FranciscoLeonsuperoptimo
@FranciscoLeonsuperoptimo 2 роки тому
@@talisikid1618 Indeed, USA is following the same recipe from Japan towards a Fascist System where only big corporations succeed with the favor of the goverment. QE and market manipulation are the norm in Wallstreet right now. Corporations are already killing innovation with patents and biased regulations in favor of them. That's why we need to learn the lessons from Japan, because they've experienced the blueprint of the scheme that will be realized to the rest of the world.
@noco-pf3vj
@noco-pf3vj 2 роки тому
Japan: trying to boost up inflation for decades and failed. Other countries: Oh no, inflation out of control!
@freeeggs3811
@freeeggs3811 2 роки тому
That is because of the US.
@Arquiteto-em-Sao-Paulo
@Arquiteto-em-Sao-Paulo 2 роки тому
other countries: lets do that again and try not to have more kids.... Japan: buy things is happiness.
@Rusu421
@Rusu421 2 роки тому
@Federal Bureau of Investigation printer go brrrrr...
@JojohnWick
@JojohnWick 2 роки тому
That is because government intervention. If government let market falls to bottom, surely the slow growth will create inflation. They intervene instead create a very very slow drop, so it deflated slowly. USA stock market also the same by now. They don't let it fall and corrected, they will have abnormal economy ahead.
@drscopeify
@drscopeify 2 роки тому
I think that is because Japanese people are very frugal and they don't buy and hoard items like people in other countries do. People in Japan tend to live in apartments and just don't spend much money. Even in China there is much more spending but there is a hard limitation as most people also live in small apartments although larger than Japan still nothing comapred to American private homes and culture that is just a massive spending machine. There is a reason how USA built modern China from it's crazy consumption of goods as prices rise in China new countries or old ones can take that market share away form China which is why growth has slowed to a crawl in China and they are making radical changes this year. They know that the American and western consumption machine is leaving China so they are making that transition move faster.
@XxpitbulxX009
@XxpitbulxX009 2 роки тому
The editing that goes into this 👌🏾
@tottibrotta4247
@tottibrotta4247 Рік тому
Such a great video! Super helpful and easy to follow! 🙏👏
@marco_admin
@marco_admin Рік тому
Inbox me 👆 Immediately you got this text
@Real_Iron_Smith
@Real_Iron_Smith 2 роки тому
This was very well structured and extremely informative. I'm fascinated by Japan's Economy and Corporate structure, and only grew more fascinated when I visited the nation.
@byoshizaki1025
@byoshizaki1025 2 роки тому
Yep and Japan has one of the lowest crime rates and healthiest populations in the world. Compare that to the U.S. where places like Chicago with 4000 shootings a year and Detroit that are as dangerous and dirty as countries like Iraq and Afghanistan. Not to mention the bridge in Pittsburgh that just collapsed yesterday due to a dilapidated national infrastructure. Have you seen the videos of the miles of packages strewn across L.A. railways from criminals doing whatever they want without consequences? How about the 200 shootings recorded along SF highways last year? Don't even get me started on the million people that have died from COVID and a healthcare system that is 2x more expensive per capita than Japan's but still produces some of the worst health outcomes of any industrialized country. The U.S. has become a real paradise.
@PiroKUSS
@PiroKUSS Рік тому
@@byoshizaki1025 Yet they have some of the most ideologically retrograde people around and don't innovate anymore, not to mention sexual crime is severely underreported. Yep.
@jonalvarez2460
@jonalvarez2460 2 роки тому
Thank you for the video. I currently live in Japan. My knowledge on economics is very limited. However, there are two things I would like to ask/share. One, from my work experience here, I learned that it is quite usual for a Japanese company to have very little operational income year after year. Labour and provider costs typically eat up all the money they made. Labour costs are very high not mainly because of wages, but because of welfare. Japan has this system called welfare society instead of welfare state, in which companies and households are the main safety net, not the state itself. Second, (and about this I would like to ask for your opinion), there is the retirement pension policy. Government consistently states that pension system will not disappear but this will happen by severe cuts on pension amounts. This is often felt by most people as the main reason to save money instead of using it: they consider that they have to save enough in order not to be poor at the age of retirement. But I do not know whether there is a causal relation between pension policy and household savings, and I would like to hear your opinion on that. There are also other reasons to save money, such as healthcare. National healthcare insurance covers 70% of costs, but the patient must pay the other 30%. Which can be a lot of money in case of a serious disease.
@orpezo
@orpezo 7 місяців тому
I LOVEEE YOUUU. I had to do this presentation for Individual Societies (IS) on Japan's Abenomics and why they needed it and how the abenomics played out. I did countless research but my head was spinning instead. This neat and well explained video helped me a lot!!! Thank you soooo much!!
@MoneyMacro
@MoneyMacro 7 місяців тому
My pleasure
@AnimeUproar
@AnimeUproar 2 роки тому
Great video! I really appreciated all the Anime references as well.
@haera1471
@haera1471 2 роки тому
omg animac!
2 роки тому
Something that may help, modernize the goddamn banking system, there is no reason why you need to go through all these hoops to do basic banking tasks like getting a debit card that doesn't allow cash withdrawals and depending on cash cards that their only use is to withdraw cards with fees on ATMs
@Ironborn4
@Ironborn4 2 роки тому
What I've noticed in terms of japanese people having babies is that the sheer lack of both facilities and time make it very difficult for young people to have babies. Regardless of daycares built by Abe, finding a daycare is an absolute waiting list hell and incredibly expensive. When looking at it a step back, I see that people are unable to properly date in Japan (Tokyo at least). Most professionals I know work at least 11 hours a day and some change on the Saturday. People are simply too exhausted and stressed to find time for relationships, let alone babies. Maternity leave is actually pretty good but it really depends on the company. Japanese corporations and politics keep holding on to the 80's notion of working yourself into a stupor and it is very difficult to change this culture. It's not that abnormal to find japanese young professionals who haven't dated anyone since graduating college because they are so damn swamped
@MoneyMacro
@MoneyMacro 2 роки тому
Very interesting. This is something that I think you start seeing more and more in many big cities. I think it shows that policy makers need to consider multiple factors if they want to influence birth rates and that these factors can be quite different depending on the country.
@Ironborn4
@Ironborn4 2 роки тому
@@MoneyMacro on the other hand, from what I understand Scandinavian countries have abundant facilities and amazing parental leave and work life balance. However, their birth rates haven't gone up either.
@robertjonker8131
@robertjonker8131 2 роки тому
@@Ironborn4 sweden and denmark actually do have a pretty decent birth rate and they will have population growth. Way better than the western average atleast
@Ironborn4
@Ironborn4 2 роки тому
@@robertjonker8131 learn something new everyday. I always thought the Scandinavian countries were doing very poorly in terms of birth rates
@amanofnoreputation2164
@amanofnoreputation2164 2 роки тому
"Ah finally I can go home..." * phone call from boss * : "HEy nIKo lET's gO dRInKinG!"
@luisvasquez812
@luisvasquez812 2 роки тому
Thanks for this amazing research !
@yw1182
@yw1182 2 роки тому
Thank you for all your videos they are all gold!
@gregvanpaassen
@gregvanpaassen 2 роки тому
Absolutely awesome description of Japan's recent economic history! You have a real knack for creating a clear plausible narrative out of a mass of information! Through an orthodox macroeconomic lens, of course. :-) I am in the demography camp: a lot of the things that happened (property bubble, disinvestment, deflation, etc) are explicable as products of the demographic life cycle, with a very big "baby boom" cohort. Japan's "baby boom" peaked around 1950-53, about 10 years earlier than the USA's. It was much more compressed than the Netherlands' (spread out over 1950 - 1970-ish). (Interestingly, Italy, the demographic "Japan of Europe", didn't really have much of a baby boom. Just the bust.) I think that you blur matters a little by using overall population rather than working age population. The "working age" population is also the house-buying, car-buying, and child-goods-and-services spending age population: it is the "economically relevant" population. (Using total population does make for a more linear narrative, of course.) (If cohort size is stable, the difference between working-age and total population would not matter much, but the fact that it was not is to me the reason why we had a property price bubble in Japan and why we are having a property price bubble in much of Europe, North America, and Australia-NZ, starting 15 years ago.) The cause of the property bubble, to me, is the efforts of Japan's "baby boomers" to save for their old age during their peak income years, 40-55. Similarly, the high savings of Japanese companies is a direct result of the decline of Japan's working age (really, "spending age") population. Once that population starts to decline, there is little reason for companies or local governments to invest. As you say, the government could counteract the lack of consumption and investment by increasing transfers to the people who are most likely to circulate them, but it has not done so. No country has yet tried a policy that increases fertility sustainably. I don't think anyone has any idea how.
@MoneyMacro
@MoneyMacro 2 роки тому
Thanks! Good point about working and population!! Don't agree about the saving point. This assumes that the money/ credit supply is a physical 'thing' that has to either be saved or consumed. It is not. Check out some of my videos on credit/ money creation of this difference interests you.
@gregvanpaassen
@gregvanpaassen 2 роки тому
@@MoneyMacro Thanks for replying to a very late comment on an old (in Internet Years) video! Also thank you for understanding my point about working age population (WAP) being the economically significant one. I think you did make the point in the video that Japan's "GDP/WAP" growth has been average. Stable or growing WAP has been an implicit background assumption for commerce (ignored in economic and investment theory?) throughout the 20th century. I think that WAP effects are going to become more visible over the course of the next 20 - 40 years, as more of the developed world transitions to static or declining WAPs, the exceptions being economies that integrate large enough numbers of skilled LDC immigrants. For example, the UN World Population Prospects 2019 projects -0,65% per year for Germany's 15-64 WAP for 2020-2040 (population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/Probabilistic/POP/15-64/276). Others in the current top 10 countries by nominal GDP: China, -0,7%, Japan, -0,88%, Italy, -0,9%, Korea, -1,1%. (The US, France, Canada, India, and maybe the UK will carry on as before.) I think these changes are more important than just giving Brazil and Australia a chance to move into the top 10, and reducing global GDP from its trend over the last 20 years. The reason: second order effects might be important. For example, company investment decisions. Investment when the potential market for your products will double in 35 years (2% WAP growth, the "normal") has different risks compared to when the market will halve in 70 years (-1% growth). In turn, there might be third-order effects redirecting firms to specific activities, with effects on productivity and growth. However, I don't know what would be the best analytical toolset to determine whether these downstream effects are as important as I believe. Heterogeneous agent based modelling? :-) You are right to challenge my savings points. They are weak. I will watch your videos--my understanding of money supply is on the level of "banks create money by making loans; the quantity is supply-limited to loans that the banks believe will not fail".
@dianapennepacker6854
@dianapennepacker6854 9 місяців тому
If you're not going to have immigrants. Pay people to have families! People always say it is a full time job so make it so. Obviously it won't just be free money as there will be regulations and such or else that would create broken people.
@user-vv9ky3jm4h
@user-vv9ky3jm4h 2 роки тому
私は日本の高校生です。非常にわかりやすかったです。ありがとうございました。
@MoneyMacro
@MoneyMacro 2 роки тому
Great to hear that! You are welcome.
@davidbagley1783
@davidbagley1783 2 роки тому
Sansei
@ejrupp9555
@ejrupp9555 2 роки тому
Well that's refreshing ... kodomodachi with an interest in the future and past. It had to be the dragon ball z part .... just kidding. Stay on top of things kiddo.
@goncaloveiga
@goncaloveiga 2 роки тому
Great video and research!
@alihatami6168
@alihatami6168 Рік тому
Again thanks for ur videos ive seen this one multiple times to understand it fully. Ty a lot and i hope u keep makeing this kind of videos ❤️
@kumarsitaraman5009
@kumarsitaraman5009 2 роки тому
Good presentation! Walking through decades of Japan’s economy was a help, knew parts of it like Abenomics, but a wholistic picture in this presentation is what we need! Please keep up the good work, thanks!
@rachelar
@rachelar 2 роки тому
Abenomics is just spin and for the elite to get their hands on the final crumbs. No trickle down
@utsavbarman
@utsavbarman 2 роки тому
I searched for Lost Decade and reached here. No Regrets. Awesome use of my 36 minutes. Loved the way you presented different concepts. I would love to see videos where you extrapolate current economic situations.
@MoneyMacro
@MoneyMacro 2 роки тому
Thanks!! I am considering making this semi longer format into a series for multiple economies. E.g. EU and China and then discuss several theories when they are relevant. Also, some inflation videos are in the pipeline.
@Vasudevpandey01
@Vasudevpandey01 Рік тому
Excellent video! Exactly what I was looking for
@peteg400
@peteg400 10 місяців тому
Excellent article! Thank you.
@The_fusion_physics_guy
@The_fusion_physics_guy 2 роки тому
This was a very interesting video, and I will say that my favorite phrase from it was "that is not my area of expertise" when discussing population growth. Way to be honest about your capability to comment, you're a rare creature here on this platform. respect.
@willobe7702
@willobe7702 3 роки тому
Glad to find this channel. You did great in this case study explanation, it helped me alot considering my non-economics background.
@MoneyMacro
@MoneyMacro 3 роки тому
It's always a balancing act for me to go deep but to remain accessible. So, I'm delighted to hear this William!!.
@lutfirokhman8429
@lutfirokhman8429 2 роки тому
wow this is one of the most understanding explanation history, thanks for not being rush
@LucasdeFarias
@LucasdeFarias 2 роки тому
Amazing content. A free master class.
@PerryKobalt
@PerryKobalt 3 роки тому
Amazing I got this in recommend Plus you did mention Plaza Accord and I'm surprised because none of UKpostsrs explain it or they just flat out didn't know.
@MoneyMacro
@MoneyMacro 3 роки тому
Thanks!! I'm surprised they didn't mention it at all. Some of the articles I came across gave it too much credit (in my opinion) but to not mention it at all is on the other extreme end of the spectrum.
@PerryKobalt
@PerryKobalt 3 роки тому
@@MoneyMacro Plus your are Top Notch, thank God Algorithms has blessed me here too, in the end your videos are much more researched than any other UKpostsr economics. I applaud your genuine Quality over quantity man and keep pushing for 1K to 500k subs man !
@tomasbickel58
@tomasbickel58 2 роки тому
@@MoneyMacro , thanks for this work. I watched that "Prices of Yen" vid a few years ago. At that time something struck me like conspiracy theory. I came across the Plaza Accord in an other video these days, which I had no knowledge of. So I rewatched the "Princes", and yes it's missing, in favor of a vague "interest group" narrative. I seems to me, that the compliance to the Plaza Accord hit Japan especially hard since their society was .. let's say "conservative". The German society wasn't hit that hard at all, though also targeted by the accord.
@backpackpepelon3867
@backpackpepelon3867 2 роки тому
Most let it slide because they fear the political fallout from it. If that deal are made between another superpower, you will see its mentioned all the time.
@kitnascimento0
@kitnascimento0 2 роки тому
He doesn´t mention the factor that explains 90% of what happened. Everything cascade from there also doesn´t mention the fact that japan is a ocupied country that cannot make its own policies when it colides of those of the "big master" leading to some ridiculous episodes like joining the anti-china "quad" or saying they will "fight china" over taiwan. Politics and economics don´t live in separated universs they intertwined. Also could mention that they have no natural resources to speak off and are totaly dependent on the import of energy and raw materials wich means even if japan was not ocupied they would have a hard time resisting the "big master" dirty tricks like the plaza acord
@jairusan
@jairusan 2 роки тому
Really interesting information, I have been living in Japan since 2012, renting and with a full time job, I can say there is definitely no much innovation but small improvements and additions in technology, but as you may know, Japan is a very traditional society, birth rates has definitely decreased, I don't think they are having babies and the stagnation is noticeable, however, Macro-economy and Monetary policies are not something I understand much, hence the reason to check your video. Thank you again and I will definitely check some more of your work.
@howo357
@howo357 2 роки тому
Small improvements without major innovation was how Japan became a power house post WWII. Quality of their cars are fine examples. But this idea of taking others innovation and improves it little by little will ultimately be their down full as well. I work for a Toyota supplier. We know Toyota has just started investing in electrical vehicles R&D. Their quality will for sure be better than Tesla’s but they have lost the brand recognition and will have to buy their batteries to compete. Not to mention all autonomous driving software will need to be outsourced to US companies.
@jairusan
@jairusan 2 роки тому
@@howo357 Absolutely agree with your response.
@lzh4950
@lzh4950 2 роки тому
@@howo357 Japan seems to be known more for incremental than radical innovation I think in some areas e.g. their cars adopted direct injection later than German ones, though also because they sell more cars in developing countries where the fuel is dirtier & would damage the more delicate components used by direct injection engines I think
@prasadseshadri9886
@prasadseshadri9886 Рік тому
@@howo357 They WERE very innovative. They were the first in the world to recognize the value of semiconductors to achieve miniaturization of items like radios, tape recorders, TVs, toys etc. and also to develop innovative methods to achieve high quality in their manufacturing processes.
@howo357
@howo357 Рік тому
@@prasadseshadri9886 semiconductor were discovered by German engineers. And all those things you mentioned weren’t invented by Japan. They improved and made them more accessible. But yes their innovation lies in manufacturing process to achieve higher productivity and quality.
@christopherpetrov2355
@christopherpetrov2355 2 роки тому
Very well explained !!
@tonydevos
@tonydevos 2 роки тому
Very very VERY informative. Thank you
@kamaujohn6303
@kamaujohn6303 3 роки тому
Isn't that Richard Werner argument about how the Japanese economy lost steam through the central back policy?
@MoneyMacro
@MoneyMacro 3 роки тому
Partly, I definitely read his book. But, I think his argument is more that they did a lot of that on purpose.... to break the power of the state in favour of a wealthy view.
@jobsanchez9989
@jobsanchez9989 2 роки тому
@@MoneyMacro so did the bankers intentionally bankrupted their bank so they can rip off the Japanese people? Like the S and L scandal?
@MoneyMacro
@MoneyMacro 2 роки тому
@@jobsanchez9989 I've never seen any convincing evidence that points to that.
@Feinei
@Feinei 2 роки тому
I've been interested in economics for a long time and this video strangely worked to connect a lot of dots for me in what I already knew but didn't understand. Great video
@MoneyMacro
@MoneyMacro 2 роки тому
Thank you! I'm very glad to hear that.
@jobkroon6712
@jobkroon6712 2 роки тому
Great video again!
@borgejohnsen
@borgejohnsen 2 роки тому
Great video! 🤗
@tomguion5201
@tomguion5201 2 роки тому
Hey Lad ! That was really nice ! Keep up the good work !
@MoneyMacro
@MoneyMacro 2 роки тому
Thanks!! Will do.
@cmbosah
@cmbosah 3 роки тому
Superb explanation. My goodness. You are brilliant. Please keep the videos coming and also consider writing several books on various economic topic. You are brilliant. You managed to boil down very complex concepts into simple forms.
@MoneyMacro
@MoneyMacro 3 роки тому
Haha wow thanks!! I'll keep making videos like this. One on Lebanon's currency crisis is coming up real soon! Took me a bit longer than expected since it is once again a super complex subject.
@05tsamra
@05tsamra 2 роки тому
the real reason is the plaza accord, which destroyed japans economy
@polarisjustdothework2258
@polarisjustdothework2258 2 роки тому
You make good sense!!
@edt11x
@edt11x 2 роки тому
Really good understandable explanation.
@Illuminatorofshadow
@Illuminatorofshadow 2 роки тому
Japan is one of the least trade-dependent economies in the world, only the US has less trade as % of GDP among major economies (but that's because the US economy is so vast that much of the activity becomes "internal"). In that sense, they are the complete opposite of Germany. Japan is also not as financially integrated as Western economies and were not that directly exposed to the subprime crisis, making it even harder to explain why they were one of the hardest hit economies in 2008-09.
@Illuminatorofshadow
@Illuminatorofshadow 2 роки тому
@@chunchunmaru07 Check World Bank figures. Less than 18% of Japan's GDP is exports, compared to 44% in Germany. OECD average is 29%. Among major economies only US is less exports dependent than Japan, which is expected of a continent-sized economy. Therefore, one would expect Japan to be less exposed to external shocks, yet they were one of the hardest hit economies in 2008-09.
@AAONMS1
@AAONMS1 2 роки тому
This is completey false! Looking at % of GDP is a misleading statistic. Japan is #4 in the world in total exports and #5 in total imports as of 2019. And the total size of their country is small! They are completely dependant on outside trade. Japan has very little natural resources of their own and has to import tons of raw materials and goods and food due to this fact. I have been to Japan. The cost of everything there is super high mostly due to having to import almost everything! Japan is known for building electronics and cars which are huge exports for them but guess what? They have to import almost everything to make them!
@Illuminatorofshadow
@Illuminatorofshadow 2 роки тому
​@@AAONMS1 Looking at export ranking is what's misleading. Japan might be #4 but they are just barely edging ahead of UK and France, much smaller economies, and far behind #3 Germany, which has a smaller economy than Japan but exports more than twice what they do. If Japan further loses in export competitiveness, they could quickly drop to #6 in exports, a very poor showing for the No. 3 economy. Cost of living is not higher than other developed economies. Exception would be food products, due to high import tariffs. Japan does rely a lot on imports of primary products, but those are very low value stuff. OECD data shows that only 11% of Japanese exports depended on imported inputs, much lower than Germany at 20% and France at 22%. So their already limited export sector is much less dependent on imports to produce their products, compared to other major countries. In other words, the Japanese export sector participates less in global supply chains than would be expected. I.e. not very trade-dependent. The reality is Japan's economy is much more insular compared to other major countries except the US.
@xXDESTINYMBXx
@xXDESTINYMBXx 2 роки тому
Japan had their own subprime crisis
@sawuelreyes
@sawuelreyes 2 роки тому
@@Illuminatorofshadow well... GDP is a fallacy.. or you are telling me that the average Japanese lives better than the average french/British? the majority of people in Japan are not rich...they can barely afford to live. Almost all the GDP is in hands of the super-rich.
@atirix9459
@atirix9459 2 роки тому
Nice video! I don’t agree with most of your analysis, but I appreciate how thorough and informative the presentation is.
@MoneyMacro
@MoneyMacro 2 роки тому
I appreciate that Atirix. I am not an arbiter of truth so disagreement is certainly possible. Great that you found it informative nonetheless!
@olegkrasovsky4363
@olegkrasovsky4363 2 роки тому
Wow! Thank you very for this! It’s the most comprehensive economic history of Japan that I’ve ever come across! We have business partners in Japan, I work very closely with them. Also visited Tokyo a couple of times. The fortunes of Japan are of a great interest to me.
@hoagie911
@hoagie911 8 місяців тому
Amazing video, thank you
@MoneyMacro
@MoneyMacro 8 місяців тому
My pleasure!
@blogger365
@blogger365 2 роки тому
Very intellectual discussion but relatable at the same time. Thank you for this highly informative video.
@MoneyMacro
@MoneyMacro 2 роки тому
My pleasure!
@disapremium3257
@disapremium3257 2 роки тому
Loved the anime references in this great documentary
@MoneyMacro
@MoneyMacro 2 роки тому
My favourite from each respective decade :)
@whathell6t
@whathell6t 2 роки тому
@@MoneyMacro But no Tokusatsu references (except for one, Godzilla 1954). That's still a huge entertainment medium in Japan and gather recognition around the world.
@MoneyMacro
@MoneyMacro 2 роки тому
@@whathell6t I need to have a look at Tokusatsu then :)
@vmurt
@vmurt 3 місяці тому
Great video - thanks!! Why did the BoJ stop window guidance, and why did it restart window guidance as the bubble was bursting (and afterward)?
@lydon9394
@lydon9394 Рік тому
cool video, just taught this topic to my students
@JessicaHicks
@JessicaHicks 2 роки тому
Very insightful video. I'd love to visit Japan one day. I've been very interested to understand Japan's economy more, especially regarding stagflation. Thanks for the breakdown!
@wadebradley7388
@wadebradley7388 2 роки тому
You would love Japan. The food the sites the history the people. And did I mention the food!
@krissydiggs
@krissydiggs 2 роки тому
Overall I feel like the Japanese economy is pretty in the middle. I work here and due to COVID a lot of things are changing rapidly. Lots of businesses are floundering and people aren’t spending nearly as much as they had before. I’d be interested in seeing your take post COVID as, due to the Olympics in large part, things have gotten consistently more and more dubious.
@CatsMeowPaw
@CatsMeowPaw 2 роки тому
One problem not mentioned is the competition from China and South Korea in areas where Japan was once dominant. Consumer electronics used to be dominated by Japan, but now Japan doesn't even have one large LCD factory left.
@ElJorro
@ElJorro Рік тому
excellent analysis.
@marco_admin
@marco_admin Рік тому
Inbox me 👆 Immediately you got this text
@peterkratoska3681
@peterkratoska3681 2 роки тому
Funny that you were born in 1989. It makes me feel old now. I went to Japan in 1990 on a working holiday visa from Canada, I spent a year there and I have to say it was grand experience. I guess I was a migrant worker, teaching english as well as working as a computer programmer. I made a lot of friends and really liked the country and the Japanese people. I had heard about Japan as being the place to go and knew people that made a lot of money at the time thanks to the rising yen. Funny that the Japanese actually say "en" not "yen" but by the time I got there it was slowing down. I recall the huge property bubble and the point about the Tokyo Palace being worth as all of California. We all knew the recent news that the Japanese had bought Rockefeller center and Sony bought Columbia Pictures. I even watched the Gulf War take place when I was in Tokyo so it was interesting to get that frame of reference. Overall your analysis is on, I think you might have left out some minor things. When the Neo-liberals swept to power with Reagan and Thatcher, in the US Volcker raised the rates to fight inflation, Japanese money flew over to the US to take advantage of the rates on US T-bills. Another fact that a Japanese businessman mentioned to me that astounded me and really shows the difference between the Japan and other Western economies was that something like 40% of the GDP is unpaid overtime. The Japanese have a very strong work ethic, our idea of working as little as possible for as much as possible is rather alien to them. The other point is that for a capitalist economy they actually do a lot of central planning and even the big corporates work with each other rather than compete amongst themselves. There is also a problem when doing an analysis of one economy in an age of worldwide interdependence. Each economy is not really isolated, so much depends on trade, energy flows, migration and demographics. I had this feeling that when I was there Japan was a glimpse of the future, like it was 20 years ahead of us. Everything was automated, you had sliding doors and AC in every shop. There were all sorts of vending machines for anything you might need. Yet there were contradictions, like very modern building standards that still used bamboo scaffolding. And on an economy level - Japan heavily invested in infrastructure for rapid transit - and around each station one could take care of all their needs as far as shops and services. But alot of this was done at the expense of household convenience - many homes had no insulation or central heating, and it can get quite cold. People tended to rely on the kotatsu heaters which was a little table that one would eat off and underneath was a little heater to keep your feet warm (in the past it would have been charcoal). I also believe that the intergenerational wealth transfer is fine for Japan, so what if the central bank buys the debt - it is still an asset. The demographic shift is a big challenge for Japan, and it is something other western countries can expect (like Italy). So with an aging population you will have large demographic that no longer produces or consumes a lot (they already got the appliances) and this is an additional drain on the govt funds and there aren't enough young people working to acquire new assets themselves and pay into the pension funds. With Japan it is even worse, as they cannot depend on immigration, there may be some guest workers (when I was there there were a lot of Iranians who did the work that the Japanese did not, like working in the gas stations etc). But as a homogeneous population they do not welcome foreign workers to live and stay. Even now there are 4th generation Koreans who may not take on Japanese names for their kids, and could be deported to a country they've never been to or speak the language. Here is where the US and other western economies have an advantage if they are willing to accept immigrants. The demographics is a tougher challenge for Japan, as there is huge divide between male and female work both in the office and at home. At least when I was there 30yrs ago, Japan was as sexist as America was in the 50s and things didn't look like they were changing. It was typical for women to work as OL oh-eru (office lady) until she would marry a co-worker. This was of course welcomed by the corporation since now the male worker was likely to have a family and was expected to work hard. (Back in the 1950s the Japanese workers had fought for a lifelong jobs and it was expected to work for a company for their entire life) However there is now a large population of young men who are single and equally a large population of single women who have chosen not to marry as it's just too hard a lifestyle (and Japanese men do even less housework then American men). There has been a flight from the small towns and villages and there are many ghost towns with no kids, schools closed and even mannequins put up in various places to make it look like there are people. Positively I have heard of young people moving out to the country to take advantage of cheap housing and a simpler life. (Perhaps with the working from home trend this may continue). As far as money going for bailouts or to stimulate the economy which ends up as dividends or share buybacks (like the US airlines that spent 90% of their spare cash the past few years on stock buybacks) there is an alternative that does not involve raising taxes or bailing out corporates and that is citizen's wealth fund. (So it avoids being a right or left policy) So these days when we have a crash every few years and interest rates really low or even negative - the next time there is a crash, instead of just bailing out the corporates (we just had a 5 trillion bailout) why not issue bonds on say 20% of GDP like 4 trillion (with near zero or negative rates and inflation at 1% it is nearly costless) take that money and create a citizens wealth fund and invest it across the board in an index of blue chip stocks, have it professionally managed and out of reach by politicians. You should be able to earn 6-7% and in 10 years pay off the debt leaving a 4 trillion citizens fund to help people out with, say low interest loans to start business, fund some kind of minimum income etc. And no taxes were raised on anyone. Another thing is rather than handing over our privacy to social media - we know the FAANMGS (fb apple google etc) are 20% of the S&P and enjoy 60% profits, lets sell off the right to use privacy like we do the wireless spectrum for 5 years at a time. And again add this to the citizen's fund, or something similar. People can choose to opt out if they wish. These are some solutions from Economist Mark Blyth and Hedge Fund investor Eric Lonergan in their recent Angrynomics book. ukposts.info/have/v-deo/aIKBaa6ghoijkok.html
@aabb-zz9uw
@aabb-zz9uw 2 роки тому
In feminist Korea, men are only allowed bad jobs like construction workers, delivery etc. In Japan, women also do such jobs as seen from videos and photos.What exactly do you want? Send all men to concentration camps?
@jason34242
@jason34242 2 роки тому
I’ve been living in Japan for the past 11 years. You touched on all the key points. As others have mentioned, there are cultural differences and in particular conservative approaches to about everything for which also continue to hold Japan back behind other countries both in Asia and also globally.
@talisikid1618
@talisikid1618 2 роки тому
Yet they have the best standard of living in Asia.
@onlyfacts4999
@onlyfacts4999 2 роки тому
@@talisikid1618 Not really, South Korea and Singapore are ahead now.
@lzh4950
@lzh4950 2 роки тому
Think the people & companies became more conservative after being hit hard financially/traumatised by the property market collapse in the late-1980s
@hebedabber2770
@hebedabber2770 2 роки тому
Liberalism is a disease. It won't make Japan a better place to live.
@darkeroundhouse9408
@darkeroundhouse9408 2 роки тому
@@onlyfacts4999 No. China is leading Asia now.
@alihatami6168
@alihatami6168 Рік тому
Great stuff ty a lot 🙏
@stopato5772
@stopato5772 2 роки тому
While I agree with your monetary conclusions, I didn't see enough about the important fiscal strategies and challenges. Japanese infrastructure (Shinkansen, Highways, Airports) are world leading in terms of function and design upgrades. ( A clear example is comparing USA Airports, or Berlin's new airport with Nagoya or Haneda. )Japan has a strong portfolio of civil infrastructure which has made is easier and more convenient for Japanese. ON the down side is the constant concrete changes made to the coastline, essential to protect it from calamity of Tsunami as witnessed in recent times. The fiscal spending on infrastructure then depletes the reserves while Korean and Chinese manufactures are gaining more market share.
@nz6241
@nz6241 2 роки тому
The timing is perfect, I can go back to Japan from US with fraction of my wealth here in US, and live an amazingly comfortable life.
@kurrupoppo6937
@kurrupoppo6937 2 роки тому
Depends where you are coming from in the US and going to in Japan, same goes for here in Canada. I live in Vancouver, and for what I pay here for an apartment is an insane amount in say Tokyo. Close to double the price in Tokyo then here in Vancouver and in Tokyo much smaller apartments as well then compared to here in Vancouver. I almost moved to Japan myself as I dated a women there for 7 years, but compared to here it is just to expensive in somewhere like Tokyo.
@calebclunie4001
@calebclunie4001 2 роки тому
The rotary phone, in 1997, is hilarious. 😂 Although, my family still used one until 1993, ☎️ Japan, surely, had transitioned to touch tone phones, by 1997. LOL
@bezahltersystemtroll5055
@bezahltersystemtroll5055 2 роки тому
rotary phones are awesome.
@gcard2112
@gcard2112 5 місяців тому
Great video thank you
@intranext1359
@intranext1359 2 роки тому
Great Video! btw, do you know about prof. Richard Werner. he was an economist in japan
@peteroneill2991
@peteroneill2991 2 роки тому
Just subscribed another excellent video to go with your rebuttal of EE, now going to watch Dutch via USA to hopefully get ammo against the future Great (not) UK/US trade deal.
@ericskoglund7543
@ericskoglund7543 2 роки тому
“Japan’s economy seems to be doing quite well for its citizens. “ that is true if you are a pensioner. Japan’s poverty rate is increasing yearly without fail. The increase in single parent households has a lot to do with this and once you are on the bottom in Japan, it’s social doctrine makes it difficult to rise up out of their social situation. It’s difficult for men as well since if they do not get a decent job after they enter the work force or they get laid off they are relegated to low wage jobs from then on. Japan has many ways to waste the talents of its people.
@MrZozue
@MrZozue 2 роки тому
Japan sucks
@Arquiteto-em-Sao-Paulo
@Arquiteto-em-Sao-Paulo 2 роки тому
I gone there in 2016 to immigrate forever. And realised that my country Brazil is thousand light years better, even though media only plays shit about it. Siz months later I was back, now Im in Sao Paulo, possibly, one of the 3 best cities in the whole world. But of course, it will depend on your information source.
@theburden9920
@theburden9920 2 роки тому
@@Arquiteto-em-Sao-Paulo Brazil is not that bad tbh that is why Japanese immigrated there before. It is just corrupt like my country 💩
@chrisgunther109
@chrisgunther109 2 роки тому
They need new, young, innovative corporations; not to just keep protecting the ancient conglomerates.
@neeljavia2965
@neeljavia2965 2 роки тому
@@Arquiteto-em-Sao-Paulo Brazil doesn't seem to have a very bright future like Japan either.
@colinubeh1180
@colinubeh1180 Рік тому
Nice video. This is better than reading dry technical publications.
@xiongchia1985
@xiongchia1985 2 роки тому
Thank you very much, Sir!!your survey is so interested for Macroeconomy & Monetary politics! Paris, Fr( 21/10/2021)
@lukelim5094
@lukelim5094 2 роки тому
I would say one of the few of the reason Japan grew stagnant is due to the fact it expanded and perfected its process and infrastructure too quickly too . It is simply too expensive and risky to tear down something old in the eye of Japanese. For example in Singapore where I live, the old carpark system is a mess while the carpark in the newer one is excellent. The old carpark is usually residing in old city area that have british influence. While the roads and carpark in the new estates is just excellent. Because it was newly build on newly developed lands. In Japan, there seem to be an unwillingness to tear down the old systems for a better system. Might be due to cost, might be due to an perfectionist culture, might be the fear of risk for a new system. For China, there was nothing no existing infrastructure or digital stuff at all. They can just put in the latest most efficient system without caring about the old system. In other words, it is simply easy to build something up from zero.
@roger_isaksson
@roger_isaksson 2 роки тому
In all fairness Singapore is a semi-chaotic hodgepodge of cultures and ideas compared with Japan’s somewhat homogenous (stale) society that reflects into its corporations.
@TheDa6781
@TheDa6781 2 роки тому
"In other words, it is simply easy to build something up from zero." This is basically how the US came to be.
@PomegranateChocolate
@PomegranateChocolate 2 роки тому
@@roger_isaksson Singapore also have Indians. Yuk.
@kavenxiong5521
@kavenxiong5521 2 роки тому
@@PomegranateChocolate No, you're yuk.
@chrisgunther109
@chrisgunther109 2 роки тому
Japan is super-conservative, so you can't go around offending all the old people who loved that old car park! China on the other hand will pave over your house while you're still inside and dare anyone to say something.
@georgesiew2758
@georgesiew2758 3 роки тому
I find it utterly unconvincing that the bursting of an asset bubble and the subsequent debt deflation spiral is why Japan went from very high growth to very low growth. The biggest problems with this story is that it does not make sense when you take into account the ability to eliminate deflationary expectations with central planning. Debt deflation spirals are an artifact of the myopic expectations of individual agents. This problem exists only when the economy is made up of many small individuals and it ceases to exist when a central planner steps in to run the economy. While having a central planner step in to correct the system may not be politically possible in the short run but surely it is possible if the problem persists in the long run. There are many ways central planners can eliminate deflation or demand reduction expectations. There is no way they can not do it if they really wanted to. The fact that the Japanese government could not or did not reverse the decline in growth suggests that the problem was far bigger than just deflationary expectations. There must have been some real supply side reasons that drove the decline of Japanese growth for such a long time.
@MoneyMacro
@MoneyMacro 3 роки тому
The argument I make is that debt-deflation was the main force driving stagnation in the 90s ... not in the decades after ....
@georgesiew2758
@georgesiew2758 3 роки тому
@@MoneyMacro I watched your entire video and the main argument you are presenting is the debt deflation argument throughout. I find this argument unconvincing and politically motivated (By that I mean not by you but by the original people who proposed this theory). While deflation expectations does have an effect on economics particularly in the short run there is no evidence that it is as substantial a driver of economics in the long run as economies have grown through large amounts of persistent deflation all throughout history. The economy grows from the expansion of aggregate supply and the full utilization of aggregate supply capacity. The under utilization of aggregate supply capacity is a problem that can be corrected by central planning but a correction of this problem doesn't mean a return to persistent growth. Japan hit a point in its growth at which aggregate supply could not grow any further. The simplest argument for why the investments to grow the economy stopped is because their risk adjusted return on investment was below their breakeven cost. This is more than just because people didn't spend money because of deflation expectations. Deflation expectations is not the primary driver of people's thinking process when they spend money, welfare gain is. You have to do a lot of manipulation to your math to get deflationary expectations to change people long run consumption pattern enough to explain a large drop in growth. A simple examination of people's actual thinking will show you that deflation expectations cannot account for so much of people's behavior. What is much more likely is that people simply didn't spend the money because there was insufficient welfare gain in it for them. All deflation expectations does is makes this slightly worse. A simple example to illustrate what I mean. You can try to grow the economy by making more cars. When you measure if doing so grew the economy it depends on the price of cars. If you live in a world with already more cars than people want, additional cars can only be sold at very low prices. If these prices are below the cost of making the cars the economy shrinks rather than grows. A car maker running into this problem will not invest to make more cars. On the surface everything looks like deflation and you could say that the problem is insufficient demand for cars driving a deflation in cars. Is deflationary expectations driving this or the fact that society has exhausted the growth avenue of producing more cars? Deflation is just a convenient scapegoat for running into insufficient welfare gain problems. The economy is having problems coming up with new products and services that sufficiently increase welfare compared to existing alternatives. People not only don't know what to make, they don't know what to invest in to come up with what to make. This is the primary problem holding back growth in Japan and indeed the entire world. Japan is a very advanced country with very smart people that usually runs ahead of other countries. They are also a very frugal and understated people who are not easy to provide welfare enhancing alternatives to. Because of these things Japan is just the first to run into these problems and relatively early on compared to other countries. There is nothing Japan can do about these problems aside from continue to try to be innovative. Trying to address the problem with inflationary policies is a fools errand and will in the long run be more destructive than helpful. Painting the problem as one of debt deflation is just politically expedient because it does less to undermine the existing economic order than admitting that there in an underlying aggregate supply problem.
@MoneyMacro
@MoneyMacro 3 роки тому
@@georgesiew2758 It is true that most of my arguments debt-deflation (1990s), deflation expectations (2000s), shrinking population (2010s) can be described as demand side problems... However, I would argue that your insufficient demand for cars example is a demand side argument as well. That being said, okay I think I see your point that there isn't enough innovation in supply any more to drive most advanced economies (including Japan) forward.
@semhuizer9404
@semhuizer9404 2 роки тому
A few years ago I wrote an article on how Japan can revice it's economy by embracing deflation: japan-forward.com/japan-should-embrace-deflation-to-revive-the-economy/ In addition, I think the popular 'wisdom' that deflation is bad because it makes people postpone their spending is the one of the worst 'theories' in economics that I hear all the time. It might be true for houses or shares, but not for consumer goods. It assumes that when people see prices fall, they would automatically expect prices to go down even further and delay their purchases. It is much more realistic that people would buy more stuff if prices fall, as they can profit from low prices and they are not sure whether prices will fall further. Even if prices would fall for years, at some point people would spend their money because it is no use to keep hoarding money indefinitely. Also, I personally never saw empirical evidence supporting this popular economic wisdom. On the other hand, I do think that deflation can be a symptom of falling demand or a collapsing banking system. I even agree that deflation can be problematic when there is a lot of debt in the economy, but then we would have to argue whether it is deflation or high debt levels that is causing this problem. Finally, when deflation is caused by rising productivity it won't make it harder for people to pay their debts as the economy will keep growing.
@ohhforgetme
@ohhforgetme 2 роки тому
@@semhuizer9404 That whole Theory vs Praxis view is an interesting take. I still am not convinced that deflation can handle any sort of long term debt though and I think this exactly is the problem since prety much all economies have some sort of long term debt standing
@Luxury_vagabond
@Luxury_vagabond 2 роки тому
Wonderful information. Respect from Taiwan.
@mike-sn2js
@mike-sn2js 2 роки тому
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