Why Liquidity Matters More Than Anything Else w/ Raoul Pal & Michael Howell

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Real Vision

Real Vision

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A bull market in liquidity started in October of 2022, and we know liquidity leads asset markets.
Raoul speaks with Michael Howell, CEO of CrossBorder Capital, about why the biggest force in global macro is pointing towards a new bull market in equities.
CHAPTERS:
1 Understanding Global Liquidity 00:46
2 Liquidity & Central Banks 08:42
3 Is it Possible Central Bankers Actually Know What They're Doing? 0:19:15
4 Where Are We in the Global Monetary Cycle? 0:30:12
5 The Takeaways 0:45:08
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#financialmarkets #raoulpal #liquidity
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КОМЕНТАРІ: 96
@heteshjoosery8542
@heteshjoosery8542 Рік тому
The most timely interview , almost the only interview ive watched that fits what we are seeing
@troy8231
@troy8231 7 місяців тому
Right and it’s still the case. It’s shocking how so few experts are actual experts.
@leestephens1670
@leestephens1670 Рік тому
One of the best conversations I have listened to 👏👏👏
@prula
@prula Рік тому
Michael should offer his book as an audio book!
@rednose1966
@rednose1966 Рік тому
I am buying the capital wars book
@impermanenthuman8427
@impermanenthuman8427 11 місяців тому
Agree we need as audio, I read with my ears while driving, no time to sit and stare at a book I’m too busy
@fredcroft7517
@fredcroft7517 Рік тому
Soem really solid thinking here. Raoul deserves thanx for putting this together.
@philtuljxen5466
@philtuljxen5466 Рік тому
Love that exchange and we need more of this, many thanks
@kurtjensen5798
@kurtjensen5798 Рік тому
Date of interview: April 17th 2023.. just something I always like to verify before watching with these uploads.. don't want to waste time on outdated stuff..
@mgarduno606
@mgarduno606 11 місяців тому
Agreed. One month later I think is still relevant for these high level views
@troy8231
@troy8231 7 місяців тому
@@mgarduno6064 months later it’s still relevant. As an investor, when it comes to financial markets and portfolio allocation, Michael Howell is one of the rare few who is almost always on point and a great resource to have.
@NoMoWarplz
@NoMoWarplz 9 місяців тому
Awesome. 3rd with Rauol Pal this morning. ;)
@Rogcljon
@Rogcljon Рік тому
I need to listen to this again but this already does feel like a lightbulb moment for me. It has left me with a lot of questions floating in my kind though. Thanks
@IsaacWendt
@IsaacWendt Рік тому
I get that you need balance sheet capacity to roll the debt but it's this controlled by rates? When rates are higher you just can't borrow as much against an asset? 1:7 Spending to refinancing
@joannemeeks745
@joannemeeks745 Рік тому
Very interesting interview.
@acuero29
@acuero29 11 місяців тому
I learned so much . thanks Raoul
@johnfreeman9766
@johnfreeman9766 Рік тому
Monetary hedges like gold, cryto or tech. But what about broader commodities?
@johnpaulnash3251
@johnpaulnash3251 Рік тому
fantastic content
@sonpollo8995
@sonpollo8995 Рік тому
Yanis varoufakis has talked about taxing robots and AI while humans enjoy a day at the beach.
@youregonnaattackthem
@youregonnaattackthem Рік тому
How can this be discussed more? Is Jeff Snyder correct?
@artkidolee2162
@artkidolee2162 11 місяців тому
I think he said there ll be a dollar shortage is right
@karencarswell5706
@karencarswell5706 Рік тому
What are those assets that you should own ??
@ruicmota
@ruicmota Рік тому
Jeff Snider has an radical opposite point of view concerning what will come from here
@zuu1701
@zuu1701 Рік тому
Awesome guest
@JohnTaylor-ts8wk
@JohnTaylor-ts8wk Рік тому
China is ahead of the curve because they are the world's factory. Orders slow, then production slows, then you see employment start to cut. Service sectors aren't immune to the employment cuts, but they dont show stress as early in the cycle.
@deanswartz5812
@deanswartz5812 Рік тому
Aging investors need income, so any duration play needs to provide stable income, assets that don't provide it must fall. Adding liquidity while not providing income does what ?
@fastpistonx
@fastpistonx 11 місяців тому
First Class.😊
@generationgap416
@generationgap416 Рік тому
The Dollar is a great position?
@kenallensworth5408
@kenallensworth5408 8 місяців тому
Thanks!
@RealVisionFinance
@RealVisionFinance 5 місяців тому
Thanks for watching.
@impermanenthuman8427
@impermanenthuman8427 11 місяців тому
Nice book placement on the shelf behind him 😄
@daredreamdo
@daredreamdo 11 місяців тому
excellent!
@davidcoursey5041
@davidcoursey5041 Рік тому
spot on
@ThaiRoundhouse
@ThaiRoundhouse 11 місяців тому
Why is a deeply negative term premium in the treasury market evidence of a collateral shortage?
@ricardom.2619
@ricardom.2619 Рік тому
whats the TLDR?
@freefallappz
@freefallappz Рік тому
Markets have bottomed, More stimulus & money debasement coming. Buy gold, crypto and long duration assets
@jarekpiotrowski742
@jarekpiotrowski742 11 місяців тому
Universal basic assets - that’s why blockchain and NFTs are importantly it allows for citizens to own parts of the new economy
@williamcatt5570
@williamcatt5570 Рік тому
Moar Cowbell. More than Mr Walken could even imagine.
@Prash1c
@Prash1c 11 місяців тому
@22:46 "japanification" with respect to consumer behaviour will not happen because of the culture of savers and hyper-hard-work that is unique to Japan, which contrasts with Western/American style "spend, spend, spend". Japanification with respect to CB policy, perhaps, because the BoJ seems to be at the spearhead of experimental monetary policy. Thanks for the free lunch, thought to share some lunch with you too.
@Johnson-Sequoia
@Johnson-Sequoia 11 місяців тому
Its not necessarily that we want a market crisis. Its that my work per share of s&p purchase has diminished incredibly over the past 10 years and i want a mean reversion either my salary needs to go up or S&P down. S&P down is both easier and more likely than my wages going up unfortunately. So hopium.
@electrocademyofficial893
@electrocademyofficial893 Рік тому
Superb, thank you
@wordslouderthanbombs
@wordslouderthanbombs Рік тому
Talk to Richard Murphy of Tax Research UK. The growth of base money does not correlate with rising inflation. Quantity theory of Money is simple and appealing, but its wrong.
@thesolitaryadventurer
@thesolitaryadventurer Рік тому
Neither guest said it did. We had money growth from 2009 to 2020 and no inflation - just asset pricing growth. Handing out money to people during a supply shock caused inflation. What they're saying is that the money growth caused debasement.
@wordslouderthanbombs
@wordslouderthanbombs Рік тому
@@thesolitaryadventurer Thank you for this thoughtful reply. Tell me what the difference is between debasement and inflation?
@wordslouderthanbombs
@wordslouderthanbombs Рік тому
@@thesolitaryadventurer 2/ Assets went up between 09-2020 because of zero rate treasuries.
@Kindafu
@Kindafu Рік тому
Novel idea: TAX THE F’N CORPORATIONS
@vincentmurphy9252
@vincentmurphy9252 11 місяців тому
Why do rates come down? Rates going to 8%
@42dunbar
@42dunbar Рік тому
His liquidity model doesn’t make sense heading into a recession. The Fed is normally aggressively easing (providing liquidity) as we head into recession. That doesn’t prevent the stock market from selling off.
@shakespear7675
@shakespear7675 Рік тому
The stock market usually rallies into a recession start
@42dunbar
@42dunbar Рік тому
@@shakespear7675 He said the market bottomed in October based on his liquidity model.
@1Bob4All
@1Bob4All Рік тому
Do you feel the FED is aggressively providing liquidity going into this recession? (I do not.)
@42dunbar
@42dunbar Рік тому
@@1Bob4All Not yet, but once unemployment starts to rise they will pivot from tightening to easing.
@SteakMoney
@SteakMoney 11 місяців тому
@@42dunbar I've been following this guy for last couple years he's been right about everything so far
@walkonearthofficial
@walkonearthofficial Рік тому
9:19
@MB-tz7by
@MB-tz7by 7 місяців тому
It's the liquidity bros
@gdbry
@gdbry Рік тому
Raoul, what happens to liquidity when Janet Yellen has to refill all of the accounts she is now draining?
@ivivivir
@ivivivir 11 місяців тому
Gold is up 10% yearly compared to dollar last 20 years... Please review your data source.
@williamenersen8076
@williamenersen8076 Рік тому
116
@iVETAnsolini
@iVETAnsolini 11 місяців тому
I’m in a piping union and we just got a $3 an hour raise from the contractors. So, inflation imo is never coming back down
@Carutsu
@Carutsu Рік тому
Stop 👏 dividing 👏 things 👏 by 👏fed 👏 balance 👏 sheet 👏
@eccentricccc
@eccentricccc Рік тому
Markets don't bottom when yield curve are inverted... Also Recessions don't start until the yield curve flattens... Unless you are trying to predict a DOUBLE DIP recession... Also this is not pricing ANY China/Taiwan escalation plus the de-dollaring that is occurring right now. You are pricing in a PERFECT SCENARIO. AKA SOFT LANDING>
@bakedbrotatoes
@bakedbrotatoes Рік тому
Right, and there's a difference between liquidity to banks for emergency measure, and liquidity provided to the real economy. Powell has promised high interest rates until inflation eases, so another year of 5% interest. With 70Trilliion of debt refinanced in that time... Forcing more layoffs and bankruptcies. Why be bullish on liquidity when lending is stopping cold? I'm missing something in their Convo, but Im not sure what
@42dunbar
@42dunbar Рік тому
I agree. He sounds too married to his liquidity model. Historically the Fed starts to aggressively ease (provide liquidity) heading into recessions and markets still manage to sell off. The only real bullish scenario I can come up with from here is a soft landing and few people still believe that is going to happen. Of course Raoul has been saying to buy tech stocks and crypto for over a year now so I understand why he likes this guy’s view…
@LightYagami_99
@LightYagami_99 11 місяців тому
And the soft landing is not considered a base case scenario
@journalofstitchery9584
@journalofstitchery9584 11 місяців тому
AI and robotic as a technological replacement to employees also can give advancement to reshore manufacturing back to America. For eighty years large companies have moved manufacturing globally. American made, American jobs, American infrastructure, American GDP, immigration for new Americans ... NOT more QE. That is our future tax base. Better policies, better politicians, better planning, better housing, better healthcare, better planning, not just throwing money at it.
@Growingwiser550
@Growingwiser550 Рік тому
😂. Liquidity isn’t possible with, what is is now, 31 trillion? That would be tantamount to the state of Florida stacked 12” tall with stacks of fiat 100 dollar bills however, the dollars have to be backed by something of value rather that the full weight of the US military.
@waynebeale4292
@waynebeale4292 Рік тому
XRPL and other crypto networks being readied
@DegenerateSpeculator
@DegenerateSpeculator Рік тому
Yes listen to Raoul, who was calling for higher crypto prices while they were dropping. Another swing and a miss 😂
@DegenerateSpeculator
@DegenerateSpeculator Рік тому
Wrong again Raoul 🙃
@generationgap416
@generationgap416 Рік тому
This guy is not objective on purpose. He a smart dude though.
@joeshmoe-hr3qh
@joeshmoe-hr3qh 11 місяців тому
Bitcoin should perform best in this environment
@rubicon3416
@rubicon3416 11 місяців тому
So more debt. Imagine that?
@sarahcrowe4602
@sarahcrowe4602 Рік тому
Chewing gum wrappers 🤣
@geoffreymak000
@geoffreymak000 Рік тому
Bubble vision.
@SylvanNewby
@SylvanNewby Рік тому
so in a nutshell, buy eth
@mateoblanco285
@mateoblanco285 Рік тому
Crypto carbon credit tax incoming!!! Get under a table!!!
@mcginnnavraj4201
@mcginnnavraj4201 Рік тому
Recession is most likely the result of an external factor. For the first time in decades, the United States is losing its clout as a federal reserve currency. They don't have any more economies to use to control inflation, and less money is being spent on stock and oil trading than in the past. They all lend support to the idea that a new multilateral world order is in the works.
@edreeves121
@edreeves121 11 місяців тому
Cripto idiocy is astonishing.
@plweis7203
@plweis7203 Рік тому
This guest seems way off point.
@CryptoTradesTech
@CryptoTradesTech Рік тому
That's probably because you are watching the wrong data
@42dunbar
@42dunbar Рік тому
Buy stocks heading into recession. That’s basically Raoul’s view too lol.
@michaelglenning5107
@michaelglenning5107 9 місяців тому
😊How so? Demographic based decrease in spending globally, should look similar to the Japan demographic, which hit earlier. So basically deflationary on the demand side. Supply side is definitely looking inflationary with no end.
@CryptoTradesTech
@CryptoTradesTech 9 місяців тому
Fiscal deficits, deficit spending & public debt interest expense are driving inflation & liquidity. Everything else is irrelevant.
@MissBardoJeep
@MissBardoJeep 9 місяців тому
​@@42dunbarhow did this opinion work out?
@greigsanderson
@greigsanderson Рік тому
Is Raoul straight?
@zuu1701
@zuu1701 Рік тому
Who cares
@playhousecentral5847
@playhousecentral5847 11 місяців тому
raoul has a reputation of scammer now
@supermash1
@supermash1 11 місяців тому
You guys know no more about what's coming in the markets than a set of tarot cards.
@RiversideInsight
@RiversideInsight Рік тому
I believe that the current financial system is deeply flawed and in need of a major overhaul before it completely breaks. It is clear that the system, which is designed to provide access to resources, is no longer effective and fails to ensure equitable and sustainable distribution of our planets resources. it is imperative that we carefully evaluate and fundamentally reimagine how we manage and distribute resources in a way that is independent of the current financial system. Our priority should be to design a system that promotes stability, sustainability, and fairness. To achieve this, we must focus on innovative and inclusive policies that empower individuals and communities to make better use of their resources. This can be achieved through the use of technology, education, and incentives that encourage responsible behavior and discourage wasteful consumption. Overall, it is clear that a bold and transformative approach is needed to create a financial system that better serves the needs of society, rather than just printing money or pulling on the interest rates levers. As macroeconomic enthousiasts we have a responsibility to take the lead and look beyond the current system to develop ideas and policies that facilitate a better, more equitable and sustainable distribution of wealth and resources, free from the constraints of the current financial system.
@boazklarman541
@boazklarman541 Рік тому
Thanks!
@RealVisionFinance
@RealVisionFinance 5 місяців тому
Thanks for watching.
@sarahcrowe4602
@sarahcrowe4602 Рік тому
Chewing gum wrappers 🤣
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