Same as Geo Politics. America used to be Michael Jordan, Magic Johnson, Lebron, Shaq, Kobe, Bill Russell....Now they are turning into Carmelo Anthony and Russell Westbrook. The EU is basically Ben Simmons.

Hey bro were u able to see what happened in the 2024 draft with the falcons? They chose to take a QB with the 8th overall pick instead of trying to win after paying hundreds of millions on a free agent qb over the summer. This goes against ur thinking. What are your thoughts

there seems to be not even one video online worth watching

. In football each team has 100 or under individual possessions. Each down is a possession. I think this guy is talking about group of downs to turn over possession.

field goals arent luck though, its controlled by the skill of the kicker.

The cheifs are the luckiest team in the NFL? Yeah. Didn't need math to tell you that.

this is entertaining and insightful at the same time! New sub here!

IGUODALA

Barely a mention of officiating. To me things like dropped passes and missed field goals are a result of players making errors in a team sport. Don’t see what makes that luck based, maybe that’s just me.

dude why was this video so good?

As more Euros come to the NBA, coaching will adjust to fit. Which will trickle down and hopefully correct some of these issues with USA Basketball. No one can compete with outright talent or resources, so all that's left is execution. The easiest to fix.

You should count every down as a possession for a better comparison to basketball

You got that backwards dude we taught the world how to play basketball. Now they have caught up!

Kicking is not a chanse event, its about the kickers skill and consistensy. Very little to do with luck. The entire video fell apart here. Luck is when the QB makes a throw, it hits the edge's helmet and bounces into the hand of the TE which the ball was not intended for. Like the intro. That was luck.

I realize no one else has or will do this, but I looked at the Thaler and Massey paper which was the only citation and was referenced throughout the video. That paper was written in 2005 and used mostly data from 1990-2002 and 2000-2002. So the paper is almost 20 years old and its data even older. For reference the "Moneyball" analytics revolution in baseball was supposed to take place in 2002, so you can imagine that any Football analytics changes toward draft value are definitely not captured in their research. Also they used pro bowls as a measure of success which is a great illustration of how out of date the paper is. Gardner Minshew was a pro bowler last year and Tyler Huntley was one the year before that. Justin Herbert did not go either of those years.

I think the stat you put about GM average job length of 2.1 years is miss leading. 2.1 years per team sounds more like it, as they get GM jobs with other teams for the most part.

(jordan + 23 to the 23rd.) You made me laugh so hard

Thanks for this interpretation. I am 90s kid, grew up on NBA, played basket since I was 9. Can't stand NBA today, all the rules changing team sport into circus show. "In my dyas" we had to practice hard to learn how to make a two-step offence how to be able to get to the hoop. NBA now? Zero step, side step, no steps violation when alone, no hand checking, 3s paint. And no 5s faul when You cant put ball into play due to great defence. Coach asks for timeout and starts from mid line. Sorry NBA fans, this lueage is a joke. Wanna see some great games, with teamwork, many pases, intelligent plays? Watch Euroleague

That you mentioned the Patriots as unlucky, even for a season is hilarious...at least in the Brady years. They were never on the bad side of a bad call. You don't need luck when the refs will ALWAYS bail you out.

@6:42 I think most people look at math wrong. It’s not a coin flip. It’s not a wash. It’s a 52% chance that the earlier pick will be better, and a 48% chance that he will be just as good as the later pick. I assume you’re not saying that there’s a 52% chance that he’ll be better. And a 48% chance that he’ll be worse? That’s different. It’s also 52% guarantee. That’s different than a 52% probability.

In summary, the Cowboys are why football sucks. All NFL fans already know this. Also makes me grateful to have Howie Roseman as GM, with an owner who has bought into his long-term structure for so long.

so why is social security is running out of money when the news have been saying this since 1998

There is no way they will change based on the incentive structure and it seems to be accelerating?

This took time, effort, and expertise. Well done. If you provide content like this.. I'm here for it 🍁

Amazing stuff very interesting

Just found this channel and I think I don’t know but you are seeing the deeper code underneath- fascinating more subs are definitely deserved here

Fascinating - got you a new sub here

I can break it down for you, the reason that American basketball is so awful, is because they are all liberal leftist punks, everyone plays for themselves...

15:58 damn look at the ball.

HAHAHAHAHA BRANDON STALEY I CANT (avid San Diego chargers fan:( )

The data used to identify luck is also super barebones. There are way more things you can attribute to luck but it becomes impossible to quantify at some point

Just Became My favorite UKpostsr

11:02 as a bears fan, that totally makes sense

Outstanding. You explained and more importantly, analysed this, so clearly.

As a new viewer I was wondering why Michael singled out two of the most painful plays in the history for repeat viewing of my 49ers fandom but then he appeared in a Hawks jersey and it all made sense.

so the chiefs are the Luckiest team, GOT IT

Dan Marino pigeon toed and that's why he will never be a QB in the NFL , JUILIO JONES can't catch with hands no way they teach him .

Some players won't look the part basketball (Larry Bird) and you a player or they look like they can play but can't it happens

If one analyzes HOF players, you will notice that the vast majority are in the top 5

This content is absolutely amazing. I would love a video about how much the team a player is drafted to, affects how their career plays out. For example, Cade Cunningham being drafted to the pistons, and being the next star for a struggling franchise, vs. Tatum being drafted to a contending team. Would be interesting to know see how this affects their overall career in terms of responsibility on a team, and how they're perceived by their fan base (especially in their earlier years). Would be amazing.

8:16

Kept waiting for a "and this is where the Denver Nuggets come in"

nba filled with ball hogging street ball style players

Your local high schools are playing basketball correctly, the NBA has been garbage YMCA ball for decades.

Great video, thank you! One thought though- I’m not sure if making a FG should be counted as lucky for a team. Having an opponent miss one, sure. Making one feels more like a successful pass (intended, not luck) and missing one seems more like a dropped pass (unlucky). Having an opponent make all their FGs, imo, is not unlucky necessarily. Perhaps an exception could be made for very long field goals where the probability of it being successful is less than 50% or point-after attempts where the probability is very high.

Yeah I played college fb & am a coach now on the side. I’ve always known “HS recruiting” is maybe 20-25% accurate as to who’s going to be a star in college. Social media has way over hyped who’s apparently “good” in HS. Nowadays, if you got a good social media engine working for you in HS, you can become a college scholarship athlete 100% based off your hype.

Just get to the point. Lol Our NBA players are over paid thugs (which is why literally no one cares about them anymore) & they took the game from basketball to “look at me ball”. NBA players don’t play basketball- which is why they don’t rebound, play defense, or care about their team. It’s an attitude issue - not a talent issue.

You mean that the Chiefs are only ba lucky team instead of good. Doesnt surprise me.

Good players catch passes and interceptions. Bad players drop passes and interceptions. If Jaylen Ramsey catches an interception, and Darell Baker (bad corner for the colts) drops one, its not luck. That's called having a better team than your opponet. Sure fumble recoveries are luck but the other 3 categories are a result of player skill. Building a good team as an NFL GM doesn't mean your team is just lucky because your superstar players don't drop all their passes while a poor opponet will.

Immediate sub after he clarified the outlier. Go Hawks!