China’s Crumbling Economic Story
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Deng Xiaoping's reforms in the 80s transformed Shenzhen, a small town near Hong Kong, into an economic powerhouse. China's rapid growth lifted millions from poverty but did it grow too quickly to be sustainable? Now China faces deflation, and experts are worried that this could spell the end of the economic miracle.
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@EconomicsExplained 6 місяців тому
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@GrockleTD 6 місяців тому
hamburbger
@ArawnOfAnnwn 6 місяців тому
Better Help is neither better at providing help nor helpful for getting better.
@Computment 6 місяців тому
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@Parakeet-pk6dl 6 місяців тому
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@LVArturs 6 місяців тому
@@GrockleTDI hope EE isn't telling me I have assburgers that's so obvious that I need to talk about it with a licensed therapist. Today.
@moldock40k 6 місяців тому
I'll never understand why economists are always surprised when a economy doesn't grow forever when no economy has ever grown consistently forever
@markbarta2369 6 місяців тому
Depends on how you parse the data. At the decadal level, the United States has been in a phase of sustained growth since the 1830's. Even with the Great Depression, 1930 GDP was higher than 1920 and 1940 was higher than 1930.
@appa609 6 місяців тому
@@markbarta2369How much of that is population growth and inflation? Are people materially wealthier now than they were 30 years ago? Do more people have houses, cars, education, families, etc.
@vitorpavani7125 6 місяців тому
Well, forever is too much to ask, but consistent growth is not only achievable but very common. After all, we technology advances, we make new breakthroughs in different fields, everyday someone invents something that saves us money and time and productivity is ever marginally increasing. If not by a giant crisis or a world war, there's no reason to think that's not how it's going to play out in the next century or so.
@protorhinocerator142 6 місяців тому
@@appa609 Of course there are mitigating circumstance3s, but the USA has come closest to sustained growth.
@willyschwerin 6 місяців тому
@@appa609 if you want to know the answer google it "US real gdp per capita" or "US income per capita" ill give you a hint The US is growing
@vedants.vispute77 6 місяців тому
China has built the infrastructure very extensively in a short period of time. Impressive, but in the book of economics, maintenance of this infrastructure is what will make China really sweat out its budget. Building extra lanes, ramps, buildings temporarily inflates GDP for the year, but if no ones using it, it would crumble in a few decades. The entire economic system of China is built upon this.
@umbrellastudio7481 6 місяців тому
don't worry, we are using it
@TrangleC 6 місяців тому
@@umbrellastudio7481 Then why are all those high speed rail lines unprofitable and where do all the ghost cities come from and why do only a hand full of cars drive over that huge bridge near Hong Kong each day?
@anonymoose9315 6 місяців тому
I have seen numerous articles and videos of china’s “infrastructure”. Storm drains in these new cities are fake. This became known widely during china’s latest massive flood. Turned out they just put a storm drain grate over a slab of concrete or just dirt.
@reaperking2121 6 місяців тому
Also that road infrastructure is at least a manageable problem. At worst you can just let the roads rot into nonexistance. But this is the country that has rush built dams like there is no tommorrow and operates the largest dam on earth. What happens when those start to fail due to poor construction and lack of maintenance?
@zsydeepsky2 6 місяців тому
@@LTNetjak consider the main competitors of China are nations that spend money to create bombs, I would say China would easily win out.
@NewMoneyYouTube 6 місяців тому
Great to meet you today Michael - and awesome video! Keep it up bro! Great to see your ongoing success ✌️
@bobbab5759 6 місяців тому
Very good explanation of the debt. Would love to see something on de-globalization and how much affect it is really having on China (i.e. globalization not going away but is getting realigned and re-worked in ways unlikely good for China). Sort of glossed over demographics too.
@umu-i-d2785 6 місяців тому
Why would you want to know how something is hurting China's economy? Is it bc you are in a hole and can't see a way out, so you only want to see someone else in the same hole? Chinese people aren't like you lot. They keep their heads down and work hard. They don't care if you're doing great, or not. They do their own thing. And that's why they are making so much progress. Maybe you lot could learn from them
@MrAdhiSuryana 6 місяців тому
Unlikely good for Germany or Japan? Yes But China? Really? Go and watch video of youtuber visiting China, you should see China from someone who truly visiting it. Not from someone who sit in front of monitor making video from stitching stock images/videos
@hamzamahmood9565 6 місяців тому
@@MrAdhiSuryanaThere's this thing called data
@popnorbert8465 6 місяців тому
@@MrAdhiSuryana I remember watching "serpentza" ride through China, encountering it's ghost towns, checking and showcasing their shabby construction. This is just one example, but overall the same information comes out of anyone in China who is not a government shill (which to be fair, is an extremely small amount of the people within China).
@JINGLI-sf7tz 6 місяців тому
if you finished watching this video, you will know that the so-called ghost town had been filled.
@kevinbarry71 6 місяців тому
Another huge problem that you did not mention is the failing banks. These banks lent a lot of money to the provinces, and also funded much of this real estate development that is never going to get paid back
@jbrandonf 6 місяців тому
State-owned banks too. Lending the people’s money.. it’s truly awful.
@DuelyusSeazer 6 місяців тому
That's where alot of the lending in that in debt is from. Especially the average worker
@protorhinocerator142 6 місяців тому
Many workers stopped paying on mortgages for the non-existent homes they were fooled into buying.
@atix50 6 місяців тому
Using loans as collateral for a larger loan to buy shares or start a project securing investment from other people taking out loans. Don't forget- no body owns anything in China. It's all owned by the government. Mortgages for a rental property are insane and it's commercial property, too!
@ArawnOfAnnwn 6 місяців тому
China's debts are almost all internal, which puts the issue within their control. They can sort it out among themselves.
@shadowsniper9542 6 місяців тому
The issue I'm concerned about the most is whether China, specifically the provincial governments, are actually being truthful in their reported debts. Their reported incurred debts are a massive amount already. Even if they're only hiding, on average, 10-15% of their debts through number fudging, that's an extremely significant amount that makes an already shaky situation look even more unstable. That's not even to mention that they could be hiding a much more significant amount of debt, hoping that they can string the people and National government along long enough that the economic growth will perpetuate their Ponzi-scheme like cycle of selling land to cover their debts, only to incur more debt and need to sell more land.
@fattymatty5380 6 місяців тому
What????? You think the Chicoms would lie?
@tychay 6 місяців тому
The debt number used for provincial debt was a 3rd party estimate based on Goldman-Sachs, not the state-reported debt. It can be wrong, but when they're basically saying that their debt load is >10x that of the US states, it's an estimate, not a blind acceptance of state-reported numbers. (I personally think they're in the right ballpark with this particular number. My concern would be the other side of the ratio: GDP may be lower than reported. Basically it feels that A LOT of systemic fudging has been going and it's all been going on in the same direction - higher GDP numbers and lower debt numbers - of which state-reported debt is one of them, so likely the scale of the problem is concerning. The fact that China has had this phenomenal growth for 40 years is actually a bad sign as it means they've been able compound this systemic failure for almost 30 years.)
@ArawnOfAnnwn 6 місяців тому
China's debts are almost all internal, so it matters little to you whether they're accurate. They can sort it out among themselves.
@ArawnOfAnnwn 6 місяців тому
@@tychay "The fact that China has had this phenomenal growth for 40 years is actually a bad sign as it means they've been able compound this systemic failure for almost 30 years" - no it doesn't. China's growth is only 'phenomenal' in terms of it being as large an economy as it is. Other countries have also had decades of rapid growth of a similar nature.
@fattymatty5380 6 місяців тому
@@tychay Which is going to make this the mother of all collapses
@Aria-cd6dq 6 місяців тому
The fact that we get free videos from Economic Explained on UKposts is priceless, keeping the education and knowledge alive. 🙏🙏🙏
@GregQchi 6 місяців тому
Another fantastically produced and massively informative piece. Appreciated! (and terrified)
@asdisskagen6487 6 місяців тому
"Optimistic recklessness" is a fine synonym for "corruption." 😂😂😂
@Zei33 6 місяців тому
Don’t attribute to malice that which can be adequately be explained by incompetence.
@HyperVegitoDBZ 6 місяців тому
Or Greed
@robintan502 6 місяців тому
"Optimistic recklessness" is greed, best exemplified by the financial industry in the States. Worse, in the USA its greed for the collective few. But in order for the CCP to get their mandate of heaven they need to be subservient to the nation collective. So, the common Jack and Jill will fare better and have better lives and livelihoods in China than in the States. If you visited both nations, you'll get it
@tiaandeswardt7741 6 місяців тому
Not even close
@HonoredMule 6 місяців тому
While actual, definition-consistent corruption does appear common in China, it's hard to tell from a western perspective how much of that is real and how much is a tool for political infighting. The evidence we have wouldn't really amount to a substantial financial drain on the overall economy - at least in terms of bribery, embezzlement, or cronyism - though tofu dreg projects are certainly a major contributor because they cost the nation way more than anyone is stealing. But all that is still discounting the indirect impact: dishonest leadership at all levels reporting and aggregating bad data which then informs bad policy decisions. I've no doubt that will be the root of China's eventual undoing.
@jaazz90 6 місяців тому
I was kinda mad when you brought debt to GDP as I was sure you'd ignore other types of debt, but you didn't, even included corporate, great job 👍
@DecemberNames 6 місяців тому
you did great with this one, keep doing it! I just wanted to take a moment to say how amazing your video was! I was really impressed with the quality of the footage, the editing, and the overall presentation. You did a great job of explaining the topic in a clear and concise way, and I learned a lot from watching your video. ;)
@tride536 6 місяців тому
As a foreigner living in China for almost 10 years I'd say they recent economic downturn is mostly about horrible Covid regulations. Many small business were struggling and closed, leaving many families broken because they invested most or all of their savings into them just to see their families and marriages collapsing. This is surely not the only reason but the most traumatic and demoralizing that might last for a few years. Government policies related to family planing, education and foreign investments are also ridiculous, it seems that Xi is becoming the new Mao in so many ways.
@aneural 6 місяців тому
Reported you to ccp. Say goodbye to social credit
@HimitsuHunter 6 місяців тому
The Covid regulations have their place in this... but mostly what they did was accelerate the issues that were already there. Without them alot of the issues would still be coming... but they would have been stretched out over a period of a decade or more. Xi basically threw multiple wrenches in and set off all the bombs at once. The bombs were long set, but... Without his nonsense there would be a bigger window for fixing the issues.
@xiphoid2011 6 місяців тому
I'm a Chinese American now, my wife and my family knew Xi is Mao wanna be for a long time now. Being a shamghainese, I was fortunate enough to be able to study abroad and immigrate before that.
@blankspace1126 6 місяців тому
The pandemic impact on families is NOT exclusively to china at all😅
@blankspace1126 6 місяців тому
Chinese government spend10% of their budget on education what do you mean it’s ridiculous???😅😅😅
@saeedhossain6099 6 місяців тому
"when people are fearful, be greedy, when people are greedy, be fearful " it's a good mantra if you're already rich
@Mythhammer 6 місяців тому
One of the main problems with using GDP as it stands, is that it includes government spending. Government has nothing that it doesn't first Take from the present or the future. Governments actions also distort market signal information, resulting in malinvestment that is one of the factors in the boom bust business cycle.
@dylanlindsey3282 6 місяців тому
I appreciate the video on this subject. Can you provide your research sources?
@Marklarn_ 6 місяців тому
It’s almost like there is a finite amount of end users in a population and populations can’t exponentially grow in perpetuity.
@danielgrezda3339 6 місяців тому
To be fair to China, most of the population does not earn nearly as much as other first world countries, so theoretically the job growth would have continued to create more end consumers. And that was a theory that did not hold up.
@Marklarn_ 6 місяців тому
@@danielgrezda3339 agree there, i’m more referring to the infrastructure can only be used by the amount of people within the population and when your population is shrinking like China, investing in continued infrastructure growth (hence ghost cities, low usage rail ways, etc) isn’t going to derive you anymore benefit because there just isn’t anyone to use it.
@leMiG31 6 місяців тому
It actually can grow for longer The problem is O N E C H I L D P O L I C Y
@fattymatty5380 6 місяців тому
Moreover, the demographics of China are going to cause further problems. Their birthrate is woefully insufficient to maintain the current level of population and the Chicoms don't allow immigration. This is going to be the mother of all collapses. I'm hoarding popcorn to watch. It's going to cause problems with the world but it will weaken China significantly. The Chicoms are all about superficial appearances. NOTHING is built to last. I don't think their military materiel is an exception.
@brent4073 6 місяців тому
Especially when women wont have kids because they are focusing on their careers and hypergamy..
@MatthewBurns8 6 місяців тому
Surprised you didn’t mention what many consider one of the worst parts of deflation, is when it’s combined with high debt. Since a yuan is worth more in the future, their debt load actually increases in real terms each year and can either trap them in never paying it off or just be a bigger and bigger portion of their income each year.
@famicomnintendo 6 місяців тому
that's why governments across the world fear deflation like the plague!
@goldie6634 6 місяців тому
lower interest rates should compensate for that though
@Mythhammer 6 місяців тому
@@goldie6634 The Fed has entered the chat. "Higher for longer".
@ArawnOfAnnwn 6 місяців тому
It also means they can use quantitative easing without having to worry about the inflation it causes - in fact inflation would be a positive affect in this case. Beijing isn't in much debt, in fact it's the worlds' largest creditor and asset holder, so they can afford it.
@samuela-aegisdottir 6 місяців тому
I was also thinking about the debt-deflation problem during the video. It criples the country, the companies, the citizens.
@jasprem 6 місяців тому
This is a great video. Is it possible to make a similar video about Sweden? They also have a high household debt and also the municipalities borrow like crazy
@BillHimmel 6 місяців тому
Really concrete and concise content! Great and thx!
@LeoMeisels 6 місяців тому
Also an important factor is the ratio of debt in foreign currency would be nice to explore this aspect as well
@dgcardoso 4 місяці тому
Nearly the entirety of the debt is in Yuan
@crishhari5903 6 місяців тому
China's collaspe was an yearly event but now it has become a monthly update. 😅
@hughmungus2760 6 місяців тому
its almost as if the west needs something to distract from whats coming. I can tell you now the chinese media don't spend every waking hour talking about how the west is in economic decline, even though the west absolutely is.
@bernardkoppes4401 6 місяців тому
It's happening now. Demographic collapse is a very, very bad thing when you overbuilt. I talk to Chinese moving to Dubai. Things are bad in China. Very bad.
@davidduncan9201 6 місяців тому
A nation's collapse happens very slowly, not overnight.
@kimeli 6 місяців тому
so what does very bad thing mean? all i hear is just bad end and collapse, but what does it mean or look like? if you are saying that the chinese are going to starve to death, i dont see that happening. if you are saying they are going to become homeless, i also do not see that happening. after all money is just a representation of commodity, and china have a lot of stuff.@@bernardkoppes4401
@user-xe9pi7sx4b 6 місяців тому
@@bernardkoppes4401中国又崩溃了，你好高兴啊😂
@silentsnipe260 6 місяців тому
I'm curious if LGFV's were fit into the category of SOEs in this video or if that was skipped over. Also whether local debt was included as part of provincial debt. Kind of unclear. If both weren't included then the 300% debt to GDP ratio might be a significant underestimate. Good video otherwise.
@thomasherrin6798 5 місяців тому
I estimate the total debt without Household debt to be 57 Trillion USD adding in Household debt is 70 Trillion and it's a good estimate as anyone's including the actual CCP ones because I'm reasonably sure they don't know the full picture either, that's why they can't get to the bottom of it and sort it out, it's a financial quagmire and being belligerent as well does not help!?!
@silentsnipe260 5 місяців тому
@@thomasherrin6798 Sounds about right to me. Truly staggering numbers though.
@sraldleif 6 місяців тому
Great video. That said, I'm guilty of high-rising terminals myself, but this was so intense that it almost felt like parody.
@captiannemo1587 6 місяців тому
It’s funny how the issue of rezoning farmland to urban and then selling it as a lease for urban development and that the whole process makes up a large percentage of local budgets… is omitted.
@Kyryyn_Lyyh 6 місяців тому
I have read somewhere recently that China has lost almost half of its arable land in the last couple decades. Scary stuff. Water is all poison too.
@GettingMyLifeTogether2024 6 місяців тому
I wonder how accurate those chinese statistics about gdp are.
@akshatshankar1335 6 місяців тому
As an Indian I know how easy is to manipulate numbers. And Chinese are much more efficient in most of the things compared to Indians :)
@andrewmountford3608 6 місяців тому
Mostly made up
@amodmishra3030 6 місяців тому
Cope
@Pyriold 6 місяців тому
Probably very exaggerated. I once read a claim that in reality it's only 40% of their reported figures. Problem is incentive: Everybody in china is incentivized to report steadily rising numbers.
@martinjr.9660 6 місяців тому
A lot of those data is from IMF a US based NGO and US investment companies.
@Articulate99 3 місяці тому
Always interesting, thank you.
@Alexandragon1 6 місяців тому
Thx for the video!
@olefella3606 6 місяців тому
The fact that we get free videos from Economics Explained on UKposts is priceless, keeping the education and knowledge alive. 🙏🙏🙏
@kittredge5167 6 місяців тому
@@olefella7561 Or it's just a mutually beneficial byproduct of capitalism?
@Junior-zf7yy 6 місяців тому
Ive watched a video every year about chinas economy on the brink of collapse at least once every year for the past 10 years. This fulfils the 2023 quota, onto 2024!
@allliquid6320 6 місяців тому
It's a problem when you don't know all the information. Like if you see a car driving and u see a wall in front of it you know it will crash. If you do not know it's speed, or acceleration/deceleration. You will not know when it will hit the wall. But you watch and see the car getting closer and closer. When will the car hit the wall ? Tomorrow? Next week ? Next year ? Now imagine the wall is invisible. But you know it's there. And still know nothing about the car. The car could even be invisible and all you got is what you can hear. This is what it's like trying to predict china's economic downfall. We know it's coming. And all signs say it's near. But the amount of unknowns are large due to doctored statistics provided by the country.
@dharmdevil 6 місяців тому
@@allliquid6320 if you say it's doctored, then it could possibly mean that this perception of china about to collapse is "doctored' as well when in reality it's not.
@xiphoid2011 6 місяців тому
The bubble was already there 10+ years ago, everybody knew, but yet nobody fixed it, just inflating it from big to huge. Further delay the pop will just make it even more painful.
@brent4073 6 місяців тому
Just another year or two and the CCP will get guns out in people's backs and make them spend their savings on more crappy condo units in order to keep the bubble going before it finally collapses.
@Quickshot0 6 місяців тому
Obviously one year it will happen for real, all strongly growing economies eventually stopped doing so after all. The question as always is, when? How far do they get before facing substantial difficulties, why those difficulties? Can one predict it ahead of time? So in that sense, there probably are a few out there making the right call on what will cause China major issues. And indeed, maybe this one is perhaps right and the sheer scale of current debt might become like heavy weights dragging the immediate economic prospects of China down. Or maybe they'll find a way out of this issue as well. We will have to see as the years go by I guess.
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@guitarhero0000 6 місяців тому
I lived in Shenzhen while it was expanding. It was amazing. I miss it a lot.
@hwg5039 4 місяці тому
Shenzhen is definitely still expanding you can count on that
@christopherdamiano4233 6 місяців тому
really great video, have not heard the debt situation explained that clearly before
@Parakeet-pk6dl 6 місяців тому
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@Pentagathusosaurus 6 місяців тому
@@DuelyusSeazer they came under fire a couple of years ago when it turned out a tonne of their "trained mental health professionals" were completely untrained amateurs with no qualifications at all, and in many cases not much sense of professionalism. Betterhelp wouldn't even refund people who's "therapists" didn't turn up to sessions because they claimed they were just acting as a marketplace rather than actual selling the product themselves.
@DuelyusSeazer 6 місяців тому
@Pentagathusosaurus Good to know. Thanks alot. I'm a psych student so it saddens me to hear people financially exploit people with mental health problems
@Alejandracamacho357 6 місяців тому
Creating wealth and financial freedom isn't as tough as many people believe. Building wealth and remaining financially stable indefinitely is a lot easier with the appropriate information. Participating in financial programs and products is the only true approach to make a high income and remain affluent indefinitely...
@Natalieneptune469 6 місяців тому
The first stage in building money is determining your goals and risk tolerance, which you may do on your own or with the assistance of a financial counselor who works with a verified Finance agency.
@AliceHh_ 6 місяців тому
With the help of an investing advisor, I diversified my $400K portfolio across markets, and I was able to earn over $900k in net profit from high dividend yielding equities, ETFs, and bonds.
@eastwood224 6 місяців тому
Please who’s this advisor that guides you?
@AliceHh_ 6 місяців тому
There are many financial coaches who excel in their profession, but for the time being, I employ Nicole Desiree Simon because I adore her methods. You can make research and find out more.
@eastwood224 6 місяців тому
Thanks, I just googled her and I'm really impressed with her credentials; I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get.
@user-ux8pc7gc9u 5 місяців тому
Could you please but a list of your sources in your videos. Thanks and I enjoy watching your content.
@GoldGamer-pl8yt 2 місяці тому
Look for em yourself
@penitent2401 6 місяців тому
About the ghost cities that eventually get filled. with current building standards and cutting corners that are getting worst as construction companies' debts grows, by the time those cities get filled the cost of maintenance and repairs on those buildings would already be unsustainable.
@dons123111 6 місяців тому
The maintenance alone will bury them in debt.
@kimeli 6 місяців тому
is this fact or just assuming? is this all of the housing in china?
@douglassun8456 3 місяці тому
The ghost cities won't ever get filled. There's too much over capacity, and the population is shrinking - and it's going to keep shrinking.
@pecopeco5907 2 місяці тому
they arnt going to get filled. china has more supply than demand in housing and the future generations are getting smaller and smaller in size.
@sajdkusta7883 6 місяців тому
Can you please make a video explaining Albanian economy? I am from there and I have no clue how that country makes any money and the prices of good and real estate is through the roof. It’s truly a puzzling case to say the least!
@TacitusKilgore165 6 місяців тому
Its time to put Albania on the economics explained leaderboard!
@satvikhegde325 6 місяців тому
Real estate prices all around the world don't make sense. Normal people/ middle class are not able to afford them and can just look at big companies buying and selling them and say wow such a large transaction
@sanjaybhatikar 6 місяців тому
Thank you for the video.
@Trex40385 6 місяців тому
"Please China, collapse, I've been making the same prediction for 40 years now..."
@GowthamNatarajanAI 6 місяців тому
China has been collapsing since the 2015.
@GTFO_0 6 місяців тому
😂😂at this rate they are just coping like this
@Jay-dm4id 6 місяців тому
You know a rocket a going up, if it doesn't have enough fuel to Espace gravity, will eventually come down. China is that rocket trying to escape the gravity aka middle class trap. Everyone knows it doesn't have enough fuel and burning at a ridiculous rate, it's only a matter of time
@aerodynamism5438 6 місяців тому
40 years ago China was third world country, what collapse are you talking about?
@MrAdhiSuryana 6 місяців тому
@@aerodynamism5438 people in your country doesn’t like sarcasm?
@dansands8140 6 місяців тому
Thank you for the actually good rundown on why deflation can cripple economies used to inflationary policy. The idea that Joe Consumer is smart enough to go "wow due to inflationary policy, the value of my currency is decreasing over time, so I should spend my earnings now" is ridiculous. "Wow, I'm getting a raise every year! I should be good to spend this now" makes a lot more sense.
@talachastu816 6 місяців тому
Finally someone said this.
@accordblaze 6 місяців тому
Yes deflation is horrible. People complain about inflation but they have no idea the alternative is way, way worse. The best case scenario is small inflation (2%-3% inflation) every year.
@daniloacc92 6 місяців тому
You are assuming that salaries usually keep up with inflation... oh boy, i have news for you.
@ma2i485 6 місяців тому
@@accordblazewhat's good about your money/savings losing purchasing power at 2/3% annually? What makes this scenario the best?
@accordblaze 6 місяців тому
@@daniloacc92 its still better than a deflation scenario. Google up on it.
@otchanel6092 6 місяців тому
Now when you mention Amazons *APL66K* that clearly fits the niche and is worth more than ever? Their project is probably the best thing done in the 2000-years and it just began, so nothing to worry at all for longterm
@adamcetinkent 6 місяців тому
What is this? Spam?
@adamo1139 6 місяців тому
UKposts is a joke, they should be able to clean up spam like this easily but they choose not to.
@charlie64x2 6 місяців тому
Look at the amount of likes in just a few mins…
@dkaloger5720 6 місяців тому
Silence, bot .
@Brandon-pi4hg 6 місяців тому
Spamming scum.
@matthewvanwyhe1498 6 місяців тому
I remember visiting China in 2014 and learning about the real estate bubble. I’m surprised it took so long for it to pop.
@JINGLI-sf7tz 6 місяців тому
The bubble was supposed to pop at 2015, but the government said to the god of economy "not today", they blown more air into a bubble, made the pop unbearable to anyoneone in China. Good job.
@vlhc4642 6 місяців тому
You should be more surprised it's still growing in other places.
@kosakata8632 6 місяців тому
@@vlhc4642 Honestly the US/EU bubb1e is worse than China
@zarategabe 6 місяців тому
If you're concerned about the real estate bubble in China, don't look about what is currently going on in the USA right now, not to mention what happened in 2008
@darthbumblebee7310 6 місяців тому
@@zarategabethe US has historically low vacancy rates at the moment. China has ghost cities. The situations are nearly opposite.
@zarategabe 6 місяців тому
Every year there is a new story about how China will crumble soon. Then the next year they say, "wait! this time is different"
@nopenope7826 6 місяців тому
westerners projecting about their collapse
@matm4413 6 місяців тому
EE: "make another episode about the economy without mentioning the demographic changes challenge"
@nlb137 6 місяців тому
There's a saying in the stock market something like 'the market can stay wrong longer than you can stay solvent', basically meaning "don't bet against a doomed company because it's hard to predict *when* it will die". I think the same applies to China. It's built on a rotten foundation and I think a major economic collapse is inevitable... but it's hard to say when, because being a totalitarian dictatorship means the thing that China is best at is hiding reality for as long as possible. We can have bad news after bad news, and it's impossible to predict which straw will be the one to break the camel's back.
@hughmungus2760 6 місяців тому
While there are fundamental flaws with the way how all modern economies work. People have been calling for china's collapse for Literally 30+ years. What does a collapse even look like?
@stevep5408 6 місяців тому
Agree, existentialism would question of when the emperor had no clothes, when he put nothing on or when the child acknowledged it?
@TruthDragon. 6 місяців тому
Well said and spot on. I would only add that while the specific timing is nearly impossible to predict, the noose the CCP has put around the neck of the Chinese economy can no longer be removed. It is only a matter of time for China. Its entire economy is based on exports and yet, China lashes out at the world and destroys any goodwill it created during the past few decades. China is extremely poorly managed and this will be revealed with time. The more difficult questions are will Xi survive this and will the CCP survive this?
@tannhaeuserx464 6 місяців тому
There is also a saying that everyone dies in the long run, including nations. If you wait long enough, say 10k years, chances are the world map will look very different.
@kittredge5167 6 місяців тому
Realistically, things in China are only going to get worse from here. While the housing crisis is an insane issue, their biggest issue is probably their aging population, which is made worse by a collapsing economy and unemployment rates. China is so incredibly fucked.
@machenka 6 місяців тому
This is the first channel ever where I can’t watch the videos in full due to the speakers way of talking. The way he draws out EVERY end of a sentence is borderline psychological terror! I’m not sure whether it’s on purpose to sound more professor-like or whether he just got a very bad habit that he does not think about himself, but it’s driving me insane! Some of the videos have interesting topics so if I really want to watch it all I’ve started to mute the sound and just read the subtitles. 😂🤯
@wildhostage 2 місяці тому
Literally the first one Evaaahh... AI would have been bettaaah
@iPondR 6 місяців тому
Is it true that deflation is a 'headwind' for the amount of loan outstanding, over the long haul? That is... it doesn't get 'inflated away' into a smaller relative value over time, while incomes typically rise over time.
@barunsingh2860 6 місяців тому
Major problem of china is the whole growth story was dependent on infrastructure it should be good till some time but excess can cause trouble
@bitbucketcynic 6 місяців тому
Spending money you don't have on things you don't need is a Very Bad Idea at any scale, be it personal or national.
@benjaminshropshire2900 6 місяців тому
Re deflation: another issues with it is that if prices are dropping there is an incentive to make purchases as late as possible to get the best price possible. The end consumer can gain by deferring basically anything they can put off till later. And this is also true at every stage of the logistics pipeline where stockpiles, even of durable goods, lose value relative to cash holdings. This means that (at least temporarily) demand for production can be lower than even depressed consumption rates as stockpiles may intentionally be allowed to run down.
@ddegn 6 місяців тому
Good points.
@hughmungus2760 6 місяців тому
easiest solution to deflation? Run the money printers and just bail out debtors
@benjaminshropshire2900 6 місяців тому
@@hughmungus2760 easy != equal or equitable. -- Bailing out debtors helps them at the expense of people who don't have debts. That might encourage people to go even more into debt.Bailing out debtors helps them at the expense of people who don't have debts. That might encourage people to go even more into debt. What might actually work better would be for the state (in the US, the Fed) to offer low rate loans for refinancing of (only?) existing debts. At a minimum, that moves the interest payment costs in a good direction relative to GDP. But I suspect even that just pushes things down the road if you can't resolve the foundational issues that created the problems in the first place.
@funveeable 6 місяців тому
Has any country suffered an economic catastrophe due to deflation? Everyone always says its bad but has it ever happened? We have Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Germany, and the US to show that inflation is bad, but has deflation every been proven to be bad? Humans cant stop spending because they will starve to death. For the same reason humans dont perceive inflation until many years later, they wont see deflation either.
@stephenpaul7499 2 місяці тому
Completely irrelevant, but these frame-transitions your editor used are SO COOL.
@TelusJadetester 6 місяців тому
@EconomicsExplained serious question as a person with an economics major, is the philosophy of infinite growth is the only taught standard? Reason I'm asking is that I don't understand why every person in the world who has an economics major pushes the notion that growth beyond anything is good (looking at the media in general) which I seriously question. I mean when you think about it money is a contract form of debt or value depending how you've created it and it seems the generated money in the present is seriously questioning is it really value being added into the economy?
@kevinbarry71 6 місяців тому
Economists always "should have known better"; but somehow they never do.
@dons123111 6 місяців тому
In this case, the CCP has completely ruled out micro economics that are absent in state planners like themselves. What we are seeing is macro economics based mostly in theory. "Build it and they will come' has to be built by an entrepreneur in a micro model to be successful. They built it and what they got is speculators.
@scottperry7311 6 місяців тому
This of course also depends on if the GDP numbers and amount of debt are accurate, which is unlikely. One further thing, in a rush to grow and profit there was little regulation. This resulted in a lot of substandard buildings and infrastructure being produced. So all that debt for buildings and infrastructure that won't survive as long as that in many other countries.
@allliquid6320 6 місяців тому
Then there's also the stated GDP itself. A study on light emissions suggested that China's gdp is 40% smaller then it's relative democratic nations. And this is ture for all countries with low democratic indexes. So either totalitarian states produce less light on avrage compared to free nations. Or they are lying about thier gdp figures .....
@ArawnOfAnnwn 6 місяців тому
"in a rush to grow and profit there was little regulation" - lol you don't know China much, do you? One of only two regions of the world (the other being the EU) to already have a bunch of laws regarding AI is somehow a land of 'little regulation'? Yeah no, China loves regulation, perhaps too much. Their infrastructure is also all new, unlike the US'. This is entirely just you speculating, likely off some Serpentza or China Uncensored vid. If China's infrastructure was so bad, it wouldn't be the foremost infrastructure builder in the world - not just for infrastructure in China, but around the world. Unless you want to claim ALL of those countries infrastructure is also bad - which directly contradicts what you just said
@ArawnOfAnnwn 6 місяців тому
@@allliquid6320 That study was literally covered on this very channel. And EE wasn't a fan. It's a back of the envelope estimate that leaves a lot of room for error. Their GDP may be smaller, but that 40% figure is LOT more precise sounding than it is. The literal author of the study himself cautioned against using it as a proxy for GDP, not that the media cared.
@allliquid6320 6 місяців тому
@ArawnOfAnnwn my guess, puts it at a 25% tho it could be as small as 15%. Either way it still does not look good for the CCP.
@allliquid6320 6 місяців тому
@ArawnOfAnnwn but yes I am aware that it was coverd by EE. Also watched it and an other statics channel that focuses on population statistics.
@marcusaurelius8467 6 місяців тому
It has been a few decades now that Nuclear Fusion is just 50 years away I feel that this video topic is the economic's version of that
@galdutro 6 місяців тому
Would love to see a video of yours on Brazil's defying economic growth projections for the last couple of years. From an initially projected 1.7% growth this year to an actual 3.1% growth, econometrics are having a hard time explaining the economy of Brazil.
@HahaDamn 6 місяців тому
It’s because they don’t understand the impact of rate rises and use monetarist assumptions - rate rises increase interest income as well - when you jack up rates peoples bank balances rise supporting demand. The non-government sector is a net saver of financial assets, which means the overall effect of a rate rise is more likely stimulatory rather than contractionary. The historical tendency of businesses to experience massive crippling cost of debt crises in the face of rapid rate rises (like in 1980, mid 2000s, or early 90s) isn’t happening because businesses are significantly deleveraged, and are able to pass on cost increases to consumers because of the market power they were shown to have in the early stages of the Ukraine war inflationary crisis - which is why a credit crisis hasnt emerged yet
@tannhaeuserx464 6 місяців тому
It used to take one year for Brazil to export $1bn to China and now it takes 60hrs. I fear for Brazil if China collapses as this video predicts. Fortunately, this is unlikely to happen. Still we are all connected.
@galdutro 6 місяців тому
@@tannhaeuserx464 I think Brazil has a varied enough economy so that it wouldn't collapse alongside china. Also, Brazil has a great known how in engineering and companies like Embraer and WEG are increasing its markets abroad. Embraer latest military plane, the C-390, is taking market segment away from Lockheed Martin's C-130. And WEG is a electric motor company which probably has the best shares of any Brazilian company, as they report constant growth for a long time now. They even partnered with SpaceX for an oxygen production facility, and hopefully they will become more prevalent in the electric car motor market as well.
@kittredge5167 6 місяців тому
@@tannhaeuserx464 Well, luckily capitalism, while it didn't cause China's problems can save Brazil from its potential future problems. If they have a surplus of goods and need a market, people will buy on the cheap. China is screwed, let's not pretend otherwise. The rest of the world will simply adjust as it always has.
@darthbumblebee7310 6 місяців тому
Is 3.1% considered good for a developing country like Brazil?
@shuangli5466 6 місяців тому
This is a great and insightful video but I feel kinda dizzy with all the camera pan cut
@pinkace 6 місяців тому
I like how today anyone can make a UKposts video about any topic and say whatever they want, provide ZERO SOURCES for their claims, no bibliography whatsoever, no way for the viewers to corroborate the claims made in the video... and still we call this 'information'. Technology is awesome.
@thomasd4738 6 місяців тому
which part of the video do you find questionable?
@pinkace 6 місяців тому
@@thomasd4738 "questionable"? I question everything. So should you. Or do you generally take whatever people say as absolute truth? Citing sources is an absolute necessity, especially in videos like this.
@thomasd4738 6 місяців тому
@@pinkace Well that's an admirable instinct, but not necessary in my case, as I live in China and am very close to the topic. No I haven't checked the numbers, which in many cases are so consistently falsified as to be unknowable, but anyone who knows anything about China's economy is aware that the country is extremely deep in debt for precisely the reasons the video says.
@J_X999 6 місяців тому
@@thomasd4738China Beige Book sums up everything you need to know about China.
@royk7712 6 місяців тому
@@thomasd4738really? Then where u live in china and what kind of job are you in? and what's your education? If you really know China economy then why they are still standing after being bombarded by "China will fail" for more a decade in internet?
@rbenusa 6 місяців тому
There's also the estimated 300m pensioners by the end of this decade. Guess who pays for pensions? Not the central government.
@jonathaneleser8071 6 місяців тому
Did he just say that the United States debt is nothing to worry about?
@dv1nep788 6 місяців тому
Also factor the fact the CCP will never provid you with accurate economic data unless it will show China in good terms. This is a well known fact and their strict covid policy have devastated their economy for good but would never admit that they failed.
@J_X999 6 місяців тому
You should check out China Beige Book.
@Brained05 6 місяців тому
For some reason economists tend to forget one of the most important factors determining economic growth, demographics. A big part of China's economic growth was caused by a what is referred to as a demographic dividend. This occurs when a larger than normal cohort reaches their prime years of productivity. China had a baby boom from 1963 to around 1970, which gave them a large and highly productive workforce in the 1990s and 2000s, however those people are now reaching the end of their working lives. This would not be a problem except that the following generations are smaller than the one now reaching retirement age. This means that not only is China's population now decreasing, it's workforce is decreasing even faster. With a decreasing workforce the only way to increase GDP is to improve productivity, but that requires investment ether through borrowing, where China is close to maxed out, or through foreign investment, which current international relations and China's investor unfriendly government make unlikely. This will inevitably lead to very slow growth, likely negative growth when inflation is accounted for.
@dixonhill1108 6 місяців тому
Anyone would could have done a modest amount of research and realized it was a massive ponzi scheme, 20 years ago. Conservatives were just too ignorant about China and were too lazy to learn the details that actually mattered. Liberals were high on the fantasy of a socialist economy(yes an economy with a market heavily controlled by the state is exactly the end game of "democratic socialist". Reality is there were plenty of people who knew the whole thing was nothing but a scam, but they were effectively silenced by Liberals. Liberals love pushing economic fantasies, it's still an ongoing problem with our immigration policies.
@akshayakshay2081 6 місяців тому
It's also cultural. The same people that you're speaking are the ones who work in factories etc. Younger generation all go to university now and with the advent of social media, they don't want do such jobs which made China do so well in the first place. It's all a mess in China gg
@ronnelacido1711 6 місяців тому
They can import foreign workers. But they need to crack down on those fake food many foreigners detest.
@Brained05 6 місяців тому
@@ronnelacido1711 Smaller counties can bring in foreign workers to make up for a shortage, but due to its size that would be very difficult for China.
@Brained05 6 місяців тому
@@dixonhill1108 '...a market heavily controlled by the state is exactly the end game of "democratic socialist".' - That seems to be contradicted by the actions of all western nations. No mater how Liberal none of them have taken any steps gain more direct control over their economies, and with the exception of environmental regulations there have been no attempts at greater indirect control. As for immigration, most western nations have the same demographic problem China does, a declining population with a work force that is in even greater decline. Ideally steps should have been taken 30 years ago to increase birthrates, but that was not done. So now it is either accept very slow economic growth, or maintain the workforce via immigration.
@teambellavsteamalice 5 місяців тому
What is the effect of the government taking on debt on a huge scale (aka printing money) to buy companies in some form of huge investment fund? I'd assume it would raise debt/GDP but one would gain the net asset value of the fund to counter debt, the revenue and gain control of the company to benefit the government. Would that be an easy way to manage inflation or combat deflation? Would it devalue their currency and how bad is that?
@frostden 6 місяців тому
That 'flying over a textured plane' transition is incredibly distracting.
@JSCDofGB 6 місяців тому
This channel is literally so good.
@SKa-tt9nm 6 місяців тому
As opposed to being figuratively good?
@JSCDofGB 6 місяців тому
@@SKa-tt9nm more opposed to being theoretically good but falling short 🙃
@someoneelse4492 6 місяців тому
I notice that you compared the US federal debt, which is proportionally larger than the chinese federal debt, to the entire chinese debt load? What about US state, county, business and individual debt?
@kirayt5765 6 місяців тому
Part of a very important coin been talked about in the BCL
@gregparrott 5 місяців тому
The chart shown at 1:04 seems to be either incomplete or has the incorrect unit of measure for the 'Y' axis. The two lines purport to show that those living on $2.30 and $5.50 per day, have diminished over ~17 years. Given that the population has steadily increased, the decrease in poverty levels of income would be measure on the 'Y' axis as a percentage of the population. However, the 'Y' axis is labeled in dollars. Furthermore, the lower (yellow) line has dropped from ~$50 in 2002 to ~$3 by 2019. This does not make sense. I doubt the World Bank posted this as-is. There is likely supplemental material which provides enough context for this to make sense. That material is missing here.
@ads1035 6 місяців тому
That spinning transition effect is motion-sickness inducing.
@danielhale1 6 місяців тому
Deflation can be so much worse than inflation. If you're effectively giving money away by making purchases now instead of waiting as long as possible, then everyone from consumers to companies are incentivized to not purchase, or wait as long as possible to purchase. This can grind the economy to a halt. Added to this, all debt and repayments get worse when deflation increases the dollar value of your debt and repayments more and more every month, possibly making some debt unassailable. The deflation might be the scariest villain on the list, even if it's just a symptom of other illnesses, because it's what can kill the patient the fastest.
@Pushing_Pixels 6 місяців тому
This is when central banks generally start printing money.
@ThomasVWorm 6 місяців тому
@@Pushing_Pixelsthis is what most people believe. "Printing money" is the only job the central bank has. It does it all the time when money is demanded. Deflation means: nobody wants this money.
@Pushing_Pixels 6 місяців тому
@@ThomasVWorm Deflation means people are hoarding money. Printing money is inflationary. It offsets deflation and, if used correctly, can also provide other benefits to the economy. The trick is using the money well and knowing when to stop.
@ThomasVWorm 6 місяців тому
@@Pushing_Pixels I don't see why "printing money" should be inflationary, when banks print money all the time. The money, which is hoarded in a deflation needs to "printed" too. Without there is nothing, which can be hoarded. And in order to "print money" banks do need people asking for a loan. Without they will not "print money" nor will the central bank. But why should people, who already do hoard money, ask for loans? And even if somebody loans money, why should the hoarder stop hoarding it? And when the hoarders hold back the money, how do those, who got the loans, repay them? And when they fail, why should anybody else ask for loans, which make banks and the central bank "print money"? Debtors are those, who do print money, not banks.
@Joe-qm4yv 5 місяців тому
@@ThomasVWormbecause the more of the money that is printed the less valuable it is that’s high school economics
@oyx16 6 місяців тому
China sees economy grow 4.9% in third quarter, beating expectations.
@Ryan-Fkrepublicnz 6 місяців тому
so they say, so they always say, but the reality is no one knows on any level because all the aggregate numbers are made up...
@alekassa494 6 місяців тому
Can you make a video about the Bulgarian growing Economy, but declining population. A problem seen a lot in eastern Europe. Thank you!
@redpanda416 6 місяців тому
According to UKposts videos, China's economy collapse about 81 times a day in the past 15 years.
@craftsmanceramics8653 6 місяців тому
*checks screen name* BOYS! BOYS! We found an Chinese bot in the wild!
@amodmishra3030 6 місяців тому
@@craftsmanceramics8653 He is right though. We should stop coping.
@craftsmanceramics8653 6 місяців тому
@@amodmishra3030 coping with what? Read some geopolitics, China is screwed. Go listen to Peter Zehan or Joe Blogs to learn all about the new and fantastic ways China has managed to screw itself this time!
@tomblaise 6 місяців тому
@@amodmishra3030Lots of people cope about China and get views, but this channel specifically addressed those people last year as wrong. It’s not like we’re seeing a collapse here, but a readjustment of expectations from high growth to a much lower growth rate.
@ericli2936 6 місяців тому
@@craftsmanceramics8653it's true, I read a magazine about how India rivals China in 2004 and look at it now. Enough said, just cope that China is doing just fine.
@howardmctroy3303 6 місяців тому
China spent the last few decades playing catch up, and I think it was the correct policy. It only seems to have recently occurred to them that they're in a new phase, and that it's no longer just a question of continuous construction and GDP growth. I'm not someone with any sort of grasp on economics, so please don't ask me to explain further than that.
@dons123111 6 місяців тому
They never had a micro economics phase and authoritarian govts like the CCP are never going to allow the entrepreneur to outshine their macro models.
@markmuriithi 6 місяців тому
It's correct, economies have a catching up growth stage and cutting edge stage. In catching up stage, they have no much need for innovation, as they rely on tech from advanced countries, its the place where most global south and some asian countries are like India. During this stage there is rapid economic growth. Expect higher economic growth rates from them. After that, the cutting edge stage, where innovation drives economic growth, I think China is simply transitioning to this stage, so expect more innovation from China. Developed countries, The West , US, Japan, S Korea, etc, are in this stage, the major driver for economic growth is Innovation.
@alkriman4182 6 місяців тому
The map at 0:09 is hard to understand since you don't show where Hong Kong is. It also seems that you have switched "inner" and "outer."
@ambikanathmukhopadhyay4123 5 місяців тому
Informative video good
@pg.travels 6 місяців тому
What's the government debt as a proportion of government revenue? (Local & national). I know they are communist in name only but you'd still think that their government revenue as a proportion of GDP would be high on a global scale as a hangover from when they had more of a state managed economy?...
@donaldlee8249 6 місяців тому
China, unlike Japan, which happened similar problems 40 yrs ago, might end up being a lot worse. First, China has virtually no government provided welfare projects and will likely not have any due to its political environment. That leads to excessive household saving just in case something bad was to happen. Secondly, the elite class has very little trust in government, the first thing they do when they get rich is to find a loophole in China’s foreign exchange regulations and move their money abroad. And corporate leaders had been using their companies’ foreign investments as a way to exploit the loopholes, thus a lot of Chinese invested assets abroad are not profitable, most of them are shell corporations. Thirdly, the self conflicting ideology is starting to lose control. CCP self claims to be communist but they created one of largest wealth gap and provide virtually no social security, so they resort to nationalism. But this requires it to took a hard line approach on Taiwan, which in return worsens economy. Last, China’s demographic collapse will be the worse modern history, their birth rate effectively halved in less than a decade. And in 10 to 15 yrs, their largest population bulge will face retirement, over 200m people will be out of work force. This will effectively strangle China’s economy for the next century.
@Kyryyn_Lyyh 6 місяців тому
Soylent Green is People! Return to the ancient Chinese tradition of mass cannibalism. I wish I was only joking with this guess.
@ThomasVWorm 6 місяців тому
@@Kyryyn_Lyyhnot needed. Today you can replace the workforce with robots. And China has got all it needs to do it. And it still has people being unemployed.
@andytang8039 6 місяців тому
cant agree more as a chinese
@J_X999 6 місяців тому
You can't predict a time span of 80 years. China might as well take over the world by 2100.
@bobw7557 6 місяців тому
don't worry about China. Their debt to gdp is still way, way lower than the US and many other Western nations. Worry about yourselves. The population bulge problem is a problem faced by ALL Western nations. And literally everything in your comment can be replaced with "American" and it would still make complete sense. As I said, worry about yourselves.
@davidmurphy563 3 місяці тому
My favourite bit was every time you said "better" or "ever"'at the end of a sentence.
@deekaysky 6 місяців тому
Great work it’s hard to find any information China without it pushing anti China agendas, I appreciate the straight facts without bias opinions that you deliver here
@Dadnatron 6 місяців тому
No discussion of Chinese real estate is complete without at least MENTIONING, tofu dreg building practices. Tofu dreg along with corruption was completely ignored. Even though you can't specifically characterize these issues, you should have at least touched on them as potential factors in Real Estate crumbling, which as you stated, was the major investment strategy for everyday Chinese.
@pleasedontwatchthese9593 6 місяців тому
13:26 they mentioned it
@J_X999 6 місяців тому
"Tofu dreg" is an overused phrase coined by Falun Gong owned channels.
@TimothyCHenderson 6 місяців тому
Does China even need to be measured on the same scale as other economies in terms of percentage of population that's in the middle class? Does it even matter if most of the population still lives in poverty if their middle class is now possibly the largest in the world? When you have billions of people, does the same analysis truly apply?
@pleasedontwatchthese9593 6 місяців тому
I think the way they are coming at it is that China still has a lot of potential to grow since poverty is all up potentially. Its harder to grow the middle class. So the size does not matter as much as the potential growth
@user-vl3ip7ed9u 6 місяців тому
Not true that most of the population is in poverty. Even in small country towns they live decent lives on the income they make. Even if they don’t have all the modern comforts, other quality of life is still there. Here in Sydney, if I don’t bring home more than $1000 AUD a week. I can’t own a house and would be living pay to pay.
@douglassun8456 3 місяці тому
@@user-vl3ip7ed9u Li Keqiang, the late former Premier of China, said differently.
@jeremyblake176 6 місяців тому
I’ve heard absolutely terrible things about “Better Health” and it’s disappointing they paid you off, morally there’s no reason to support such a money hungry company taking advantage of, then disregarding mental health.
@connormcgee4711 6 місяців тому
8:05 The population drop wasn't from a war, but a famine.
@cstephen98 6 місяців тому
China invested in infrastructure to keep people artificially employed. Because of that, what was built often wasn't needed and of extremely poor quality which is coming home to roost with infrastructure falling apart after a few years or it having taken the money and never actually built it (i.e. Drains that don't lead anywhere or or just laid on the ground). Unlike other countries the CCP never built up the internal, value-add economy, instead using its people as simply eyes and fingers to assemble products built with foreign capital, materials, equipment, technology and expertise to be shipped to foreign markets, protected by foreign warships while antagonizing their local neighbors and those whom they are dependent on for all those fore-amentioned inputs and markets. Now they're getting everything they demanded and discovering they're not a superpower by any stretch of the imagination without globalization to back them up. Ugly times ahead.
@SiRasputin 6 місяців тому
No value-add in China? Lol. The literally lead in EVs, telecommunications, AI and can now make 7nm chips ffs you're living in dreamland
@dcklee11 6 місяців тому
I often wonder how much iron ore revenues over the last 30 years has Australia profited from? If that ore demand was not from China, and just relied on Japanese importers, how would Australia have faired? I would love a story on the economic iron ore success story of Australia.
@Newbmann 6 місяців тому
Hes allready done a video on australias natural resources. Its called "the dirty little ecconomyn of australia" I think.
@sharkb8754 6 місяців тому
@@Newbmann Basically more propaganda dressed up as economic analysis, nothing new 😄
@serena-yu 6 місяців тому
China replaced Japanese manufacturing. There will always be a world factory to manufacturer all the things people need, one country or another.
@Mythhammer 6 місяців тому
@@serena-yu Always is a LONG time. Eventually the world will run out of peasants. Perhaps automation and robots will take over then? Globalism is facing strong head winds. More and more countries are reshoring or friend shoring critical production.
@speedythings7396 6 місяців тому
Australia heavily depends on China.
@rharris22222 3 місяці тому
I had to go back and re-listen to the last minutes. I thought it was missing NCPTFLOAE! But, whew! It's there at 16:09, what a relief 😅 On a more serious note, I agree with some others, although we all know no economy (or stock market) has ever grown gangbusters forever, the consensus always seems to assume that's exactly what will happen until, as Homer Simpson would say, Doh!
@Infinite.Worldz 6 місяців тому
My guy calm it down with the SunnyV2 impersonation 😂
@user-xt7tf4oi7n 6 місяців тому
20 years ago, some people said that the Chinese economy was about to collapse，but it seems that China did not follow their script🤣🤣
@marcussver620 6 місяців тому
In my viewpoint, China's economic growth may not reach that mark in the foreseeable future gdp. Nevertheless, its economic resilience and a degree of self-reliance stem from extensive manufacturing capabilities and a distinct domestic internet infrastructure. However, the challenges surrounding chip production may impede China's comprehensive development.
@FredSveru. 6 місяців тому
true
@juanmartin1729 6 місяців тому
yes
@xiphoid2011 6 місяців тому
Domestic market is limited as well. Other than the affluent in major cities like my hometown of Shanghai, most people just don't have much disposable income, and Chinese are frugal by nature, which is why consumers spending only account for a third of GDP. Now that stupid one child policy bas lead to a population decline, the economy is hurting. Even the government is running out of money to pay people's retirement pensions, so government jobs are getting paycuts.
@henrylicious 6 місяців тому
Much of that manufacturing is dependent upon exports. With other countries reshoring or looking to elsewhere in SE Asia, it's going to at least put a dent in their growth.
@riplikatlnloki5091 6 місяців тому
Nope. Huawei already has 7nm and america limiting nvidia gpus will speed it up
@danilotetesi3503 6 місяців тому
Can you do a similar video of USA? I saw that also private debt is growing there. How much will survive a country where the health of companies is stronger than the country?
@davidsheeran5144 6 місяців тому
Your important videos on how International countries operate day to day debt to long term repayment plans to reduce long term loans in International finance western markets to population growth costs long term. Keep up the hard work.
@Lithilic 6 місяців тому
I think an important factor that was not given enough attention is that we've never had solid numbers from the source about China's GDP growth. Anyone with a brain treated the numbers with a healthy bit of skepticism, but they were usually high enough even with that factored in, the numbers were still amazing. So what is worrying is if the numbers we are seeing now are low, the actual numbers may be downright alarming.
@rap3208 6 місяців тому
Imf taks about it. World banks does it. Lots of western entities publish it. What more do you want? . You have to seek for it as the western media ignores or sweeps it under the rug.
@Kawaga-uc4qq 6 місяців тому
You're being fed to much with bogus propaganda with ulterior motive and not genuine research with lots of understanding
@73BigMC 6 місяців тому
It is not so much that GDP numbers were 'fake' but that the activity on which they are based adds no real value, just very large scale versions of paying a man to dig holes and another to fill them in.
@lberhold 6 місяців тому
China now has to grapple with competition for their industries. Manufacturing in the USA is growing, reducing long-term foreign dependency. Mexico and India are experiencing strong manufacturing growth, and have a higher percentage of their population in the prime age region. The headwinds for China are mounting, and their false number reporting is likely hiding a more severe crisis than the rest of the world is seeing.
@baikeiast5255 6 місяців тому
Hahahah😅😅😅....do you live in india u don't know what your talking about
@kdeas10 6 місяців тому
@@baikeiast5255+$0.50
@tz7710 6 місяців тому
India-Mexico-Vietnam-Indoneia will takeover huge manufacturing from China in the next decades. It's already happening as we speak Apple, Samsung, Panasonic, Daikin, Suzuki, Foxconn, LG all shifting outside of China. China's forced to compete in the high-tech sector. But, losing to ASML, TSMC, Samsung, Tokyo Electron, NVIDIA....also Canon Nanoimprinting from Japan just gave the West another Semiconductor Edge. BYD & CATL are China' last hope. but, it looks like EU/US/JP will tariff Chinese EVs due to dumping allegations. Toyota/Panasonic Solid State Battery with IDEMITSU & LG/SAMSUNG Solid State Batteries will be the preferred Battery choice in the long term in developed countries. So, BYD & CATL will face huge competition in a couple years to secure battery customers.
@edwardcuevas6974 6 місяців тому
Commenter Iberhold is very correct.@@baikeiast5255
@shirokun4742 6 місяців тому
@@baikeiast5255I live in india What you want say
@brennencox516 6 місяців тому
12:58 Lol :(, the map in the background of that graphic includes the island of Taiwan as a part of the PRC.
@denisebay1737 6 місяців тому
Those people who are claiming the infrastructure in china not getting used, I wonder where did they get this info? Have you ever been to China and see how crowded the trains/metros/roads…?
@pecopeco5907 2 місяці тому
have u been to china to see ghost towns?
@Embassy_of_Jupiter 6 місяців тому
If you want to see if China's growth is extraordinary you need to plot GDP per capita vs growth of GDP per capita and the datapoints are these annual values for all countries in the world. So basically 78 datapoints per country if you plot all the years from 1945 to 2023. Then you can see exactly what level of growth is extraordinary for what stage of development.
@appa609 6 місяців тому
PPP
@appa609 6 місяців тому
China today has real gdp per capita comparable to the United States in 1965, which posted an annual growth of 2.9%
@timrobertson8436 6 місяців тому
Shenzen was only a success because if it proximity to an independent Hong Kong. Other cities in China did not have that advantage and Hong Kong is no longer independent, so there is no possibility that other cities can duplicate or replicate its past growth, at the end of the Cultural Revolution after Mao's destruction of the Chinese economy. It is hard to take anyone seriously who believes the official Chinese GDP figures and then compares them to the GDP of any developed economy. You should know better by now
@davidk.d.7591 6 місяців тому
This implies tht Shenzen is the only success which is false
@_Micheal 6 місяців тому
The inflexion at the end of your sentences is wild
@Infernal_Elf 6 місяців тому
Great video
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