How Science is Taking the Luck out of Gambling - with Adam Kucharski
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7 років томуFrom the statisticians forecasting sports scores to the intelligent bots beating human poker players, Adam Kucharski traces the scientific origins of the world's best gambling strategies.
Watch the Q&A here: • Q&A - How Science is T...
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Spanning mathematics, psychology, economics and physics, Adam Kucharski reveals the long and tangled history between betting and science, and explains how gambling shaped everything from probability to game theory, and chaos theory to artificial intelligence.
Adam Kucharski is a Lecturer at London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine where his research focusses on the dynamics of infectious diseases, particularly emerging infections. Prior to this, he got a degree in mathematics from the University of Warwick, received a PhD in applied mathematics from the University of Cambridge and had a post-doc position at Imperial College London.
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@tyharris9994 4 роки тому
I feel so lucky to be born in a time when anybody at all can just press a few buttons and find themselves being mentally enriched by an expert lecturing in any field of theory or knowledge. Quantum physics or gaming theory. Become as knowledgeable as you care to be on any subject at all. Truly remarkable.
@zeezone8121 4 роки тому
Exceedingly remarkable indeed
@boogiewoogie450 4 роки тому
But on the BAD side, there are alot of people and governments that are hell bent to distort knowledge , to distort information , to gain & stay on power
@saltservice4024 4 роки тому
I swear these days we can't go 5 replies to a comment on UKposts without somebody finding something negative to say about something positive.
@markchoi5777 4 роки тому
Oh really? Care to answer some simple questions on quantum mechanics or game theory? Just because you watch UKposts videos does not make you an expert, or even particularly knowledgeable. This comment and all the replies to it, are Dunning Kruger at its finest.
@Account.for.Comment 4 роки тому
@@markchoi5777 the key words are "mentally enriched" and "care to be". If you want to be expert, in theory, you can be one by watching a lot of videos and read a tons of books. Most experts do the same thing but they either have an accredition or job in the field. Or you can just a little more knowledgable of a topic you previously know or care about with the wonder of the present.
@MountainProspector 5 років тому
I remember as a kid, RC Cola had some promotion where the liner inside the cap had the chance to win from a 1 free bottle up to a case of cola. One of my friends figured out that the steel caps of winning bottles were printed in slightly lighter colours than the rest. We had so much RC cola during that promotion! The best part was when we went to collect the free cola we would always choose another winner so never had to buy another bottle, lol. Happy memories as a kid.
@Ree1981 4 роки тому
Sounds like something I did. I was playing a tennis game on Xbox 360 with a friend, and figured out how to tell if my friend was going left or right, or aiming left or right, before the shot had fired. A huge advantage. It was from the sound of the thumb stick hitting the left or right side of the plastic. It was just sliiiiiiightly different.
@wiggstock 4 роки тому
MountainProspector, did you grow up in Texas? My brother dated one of the daughters to the RC Cola family, Ann Comegys. Back in the early 80s which is the timeframe I’m referring to I recall their family owning huge amounts of land north of Dallas. Nowadays, I live north of Dallas in McKinney and there is a Comegys creek and a few roads or streets named in reference to that family. Like you, I used to drink a lotta RC Cola for free. We just got it free for different reasons. 😉
@Mohatheking19 4 роки тому
we did something similar when i was young ... the shop owner kicked us out because he thought we were scamming/stealing him ...
@happydays8171 4 роки тому
Hated RC cola, just had a weird taste. Growing up, My best friends mother bought it by the pallet, literally. I'd rather drink water.
@garyvarjian3420 4 роки тому
My dad used a flashlight on a scratch off baseball card game to know how to make matches
@slick4401 5 років тому
I learned a lot of Excel by doing gambling calculations. I never won a dime, but my ample spreadsheet skills got me a very good job.
@NewPhone-vj4sc 4 роки тому
@Munrais That is impressive. I wonder if you wouldn't mind elaborating on your job, and on one or two specific skills in Excel that have proven valuable to your employer, in case there is someone out there looking to emulate your approach.
@CharlesKamani 4 роки тому
me too
@cadavernl 4 роки тому
@@GeldorfMcleod Hence you should try it out in a brick casino. And get banned there.
@Nyarlathotep_Flagg 4 роки тому
@@NewPhone-vj4sc If you're good at something, never do it for free.
@Andrey43915 4 роки тому
@@GeldorfMcleod Log the numbers from one account and play on a different account. Use pythons image recognition libraries (Open CV) to automate the logging process. And the library (numpy) to make statistical calculations. If you can log the numbers for a long period of time, then you will be able to see patterns if there is any . Good luck
@slypperyfox 2 роки тому
I have an uncle who is/was a science prodigy. His intellect was off the scale. He has a PhD in Physics and a masters in mathematics. He developed a software which grocery stores scanned all their shelves with it and it revealed that which position on the shelf a product sold more from. Brand didn't matter - where the product was placed on display determined the sales. Product producers were lining up with offers of more and more money to buy their product's position on display. His company was eventually purchased by a company who then owned the product. He used his brainpower to beat the roulette tables in Atlantic City. He watched the spinners. Based on height, weight,handedness, etc he worked out a winning position where he knew within 95% certainty which 4-5 numbers would be the winning numbers. When new spinners were brought in, he would step back and study their spins until he figured out the new patterns. He won $60K with this before he was asked to leave. They never figured out how he had done it but I suspect the practice continues today.
@tylerspiegel3294 2 місяці тому
Good story.
@Roedygr 4 роки тому
This was a delight. He trips from math to history, to physics like a Mozart sonata.
@ckom0007 5 років тому
Excellent talk! An example of someone who knows a topic so well his explanation is incredibly easy to understand. A rare talent!
@backlashtoignorance7371 2 роки тому
okay been given out this formula to low-income people unfortunately higher income people gotten it because Kevin in nc "states North Carolina comp office" was given this information ( just how to win ) to give it to the lottery ..been told by an insider he never provided the info to lottery officials he uses it for himself ( he may have quit because he has the formula) .. today the pic 4 front end should be 88 or 84...when I went to play today it say "play out exceeds payout!!!!! that how many people are playing the formula and know it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! so yeah I hope low-income people are winning, that was my objective no matter what color...just be low income. The only way this number will not play is if the lottery people have gotten smart, to date so far they have no, so it should play today..
@albertsallent 2 роки тому
True!
@jasonb111222 3 роки тому
" Adam Kucharski is a Lecturer at London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine where his research focusses on the dynamics of infectious diseases, particularly emerging infections." An incredibly relevant focus to have this year.
@jimhood1202 2 роки тому
I'm guessing like me you would welcome a similar talk on his main area of expertise. Especially now that we are over a year into the pandemic and have a lot of data to examine.
@AutPen38 2 роки тому
A lecture on the Covid pandemic would be great (albeit quickly out of date if he focused on the "latest news"), but in case you're unaware, Adam has an excellent twitter account full of explanations about Covid data.
@RobertLeighJames92 2 місяці тому
Omg what are you his PR manager ? And it's not very relevant at all tbh.. This is why he is talking about gambling not infectious disease.
@kamnovak5268 3 роки тому
Great vid. Nice to see a lecturer who knows his subject and rarely if ever has to look at his notes.
@Elbuarto 5 років тому
I don't know why this was recommended to me but I watched it all. Thanks youtube.
@caddymix024 5 років тому
absolutely incredible talk, so fluid and so many great examples...makes me wanna go and research them all! ty
@tsiftsaro 2 роки тому
Not fluid at all, give this man some water. His mouth and tongue sounded so dry and it bothered me the whole time.
@jtjj1234 5 років тому
One of the best videos I’ve watched in a long time- brilliantly presented!
@EtienneCharlier-Biz 5 років тому
22:15 Kelly formula 40:02 Build the childs' mind and regret's minimization of vs expectation maximization
@zagreb2012 4 роки тому
Tnx
@emmanuelalghali1828 2 роки тому
Can u elaborate please I don’t understand
@EdMcF1 5 років тому
Great talk, makes me pleased to support the RI.
@bsmith6530 5 років тому
What an outstanding presentation!
@allthingstoallmen8912 4 роки тому
When he said his jobs description, he had my full attention.
@irelandirish8718 3 роки тому
I played 50cent on 4 numbers on the Irish Lottery, in the bookies a couple of weeks ago. It was my first time ever to do so, and i watched the draw live on tv that night and all 4 of my numbers came out, i won €1900.50. I couldn't actually believe it, i went back down the very next day and collected it, & i walked straight out of the shop clearly extremely happy. I know of plenty of people who would have collected that money & stayed in the shop and blew the lot. That to me is madness.
@sullysamra6222 2 роки тому
ج
@xombie0078 2 роки тому
Cool story, bro. lol
@brandonc2829 2 роки тому
that person to waste it all is me won 1800 usd the other day lost it all 😎
@Garbaz 7 років тому
Great talk! A good balance of simplicity and mathematics with some great examples; Presented brilliantly!
@bcmasur 6 років тому
@Garbaz it's Happy! ;) I agree, I'm glad to see this bloke talking about all kinds of stuff I've been spouting for decades. I'm trying to do some computer analysis of blackjack in C++ but I'm a very amateur programmer... having difficulties.
@persona3448 6 років тому
@bcmasur do you watch fairytail too?
@place6762 6 років тому
Loser
@richardgalbraith2019 6 років тому
Garbaz I
@cordlefhrichter1520 6 років тому
Presently brillianted!
@kenlovan3931 2 роки тому
What a wonderful, enlightening lecture! Dwelling on the content, I believe it helped me understand many facets concerning life! Thanks.
@Inderjeet_Singh.. Рік тому
Hlo i don't know English please tell me shortly what s mean this lacture it's talk about law of attraction 🙏🙏🙏🙏
@jimhudson4744 3 місяці тому
This is one of the better presentations of this subject in relation to the events of chance/randomization and our ability to predict the preferred outcome. Well done sir.
@markhooker8520 2 роки тому
Wonderful talk.Thank you for giving it, and for posting the video.
@uriahmrache8336 5 років тому
Saw this randomly in my feed (chuckle) and thought it looked interesting but had no intention of sitting here for an hour. I ended up being pasted to my screen for the entire thing completely entertained and happy for the education.
@eddyla2308 4 роки тому
me too.... plus.... repeat, repeat......
@kriskong9962 4 роки тому
wait this took an hour ???
@L4zEGaming 6 років тому
Such a brilliant talk, covered so many topics in a simple way.
@jarekcimrman8382 5 років тому
Thx 4 upload
@exp0i0pi0 2 роки тому
Brilliant talk and very interesting points. Thank you
@harrish6 3 роки тому
Excellent, well presented and entertainingly informative
@BobbyIronsights 6 років тому
This video was better than I expected.
@jayaybe1 5 років тому
How good did you expect it to be?
@kraljevo8 5 років тому
@@jayaybe1 Less so than it was.
@mattrhodes3498 5 років тому
Your expectations are my priority
@mokujin29 4 роки тому
Yeah , if you ignore that thick accent.
@darlenebennett4891 3 роки тому
"Adam Kucharski is a Lecturer at London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine where his research focusses on the dynamics of infectious diseases, particularly emerging infections." An incredibly relevant focus to have this year.
@alialsabe 5 років тому
This might be the best lecture I've ever seen in my life. And trust me, my sample size is pretty large!
@dlanska 2 роки тому
An excellent talk on this subject. Very clear and entertaining, and expertly presented.
@IceKoldKube 6 років тому
Great presentation ... presenter .. good stuff!
@alanbunyan5007 2 роки тому
A most thought-provoking talk! Regarding the situation in which Deep Blue foxed Kasparov with a seemingly brilliant, but in reality completely random, move, it struck me that the same strategy probably wouldn't work the other way around. Had Kasparov done the same thing, Deep Blue would simply have calmly and unemotially taken the best possible advantage of it, as it would of any other move. Our inability to use bluff/gamesmanship against machines therefore surely means that chess, poker, or almost any game played against a computer is forever going to be missing a major dimension of enjoyment. This might almost amount to an argument for turning our attention, to some extent, away from the further development of AI to that of AS (articificial stupidity)! :-)
@mattc3581 2 роки тому
There was a lot more schenanigans going on than just a single weird move. I think in reality the match was really just a PR exercise for IBM, they organised it, they promoted it, they agreed a format, they broke all the rules, then they declared themsleves the winner and their PR team let the world know. If this had in any way been a sanctioned formal match I think the deep blue team would have been disqualified for failing to meet many agreed upon anti-cheating safeguards, but it wasn't any they probably paid Kasparov extra to not make a fuss. He seemed pretty unhappy about it, but likely earned enough to live with the humiliation of being labelled the first world champion to lose to a computer.
@ladronsiman1471 2 роки тому
I ..i heard a couple of lines ..and got hooked by this guy quickly ..i had to watch it all ...thanks
@coleyblossoms1051 2 роки тому
An hour spent spellbound to my seat. Thank you Mr Kucharski!
@nsmbfan 5 років тому
Thank you, this helped me with my work.
@stessert2208 5 років тому
Thank you for a eloquent talk and introducing me to new concepts, subscribed :)
@officacialtraileraccess3138 4 роки тому
J Biiiii Vu Biiiii b bio Biiiii b Vu BbBiiiii k iiiii Vu Biiiii Biiiii Biiiii ni Biiiii 6b bio Biiiii bio ni Biiiii
@michaelsmullen9891 2 роки тому
I enjoyed that. Keep it random man!
@jrolland194 2 роки тому
Simply a fascinating video; thank you
@Vothtrucks 3 роки тому
One of the most engaging videos I have watched for quite some time. It is still amazing to me to have the knowledge of the world available at your fingertips. Although the subject matter has little to do with my particular area of expertise , I absorbed as much as my brain could handle . Excellent talk Mr. Kucharski !
@JanJaapBats 2 роки тому
Its said that literally every topic on earth is now covered in a (or more) youtube video's. Find the right ones and one can skip university :)
@mtnairpilot 5 років тому
Speaking of the luck and skill boxes, we teach young aviators that they begin with a full bag of luck and an empty bag of skill and their goal is to fill the skill bag before their luck bag runs out.
@joeymurdazalotmore6355 3 роки тому
On a macro level were doing that on this rock
@kevinbissinger 2 роки тому
that's a fun way to cover beginner's luck
@zhuzzir 2 роки тому
Oh wow... Realities "knocked" me hard by this... Thanks for this advise, truly... ❤️
@carlcopymybet298 4 роки тому
This was brilliant. A special mentioned to the speaker for the way is was delivered
@rightangletriangle3188 2 роки тому
I like the concept of regret minimization for investing, also looking backward to improve trading or investing skills.
@petergambier 4 роки тому
Thankyou for posting this fascinating subject matter, very well told and illustrated by statistician Adam Kucharski. Hilarious watching the audience do Rock, Paper, scissors.
@milenkojovic419 3 роки тому
Can your knowledge work on covid-19 treatmwnts and predictions of cases, "red areas", etc...
@shil6819 2 роки тому
I've seen a lot of Ri lectures and boy was this speaker 🔥
@abwilliausa1 2 роки тому
This human explains the mathematics very clearly. I have been using these methods for years.
@Absfor30 2 роки тому
An excellent lecture and the fact that it is freely available is a reminder that we all have the opportunity to improve ourselves and learn something new and it doesn't have to cost a thing (internet access permitting of course).
@fturla 5 років тому
Great point in gambling where your betting amount in proportion to your bank is extremely important and determines if you win or lose long term. You can have the perfect betting system but if your betting amount if over the optimum limit then you will lose not only the bets but all your bank eventually which is why the casinos always want you to bet beyond what is reasonable all the time.
@WSMDSA 2 роки тому
Wrong.
@henrik2766 2 роки тому
Educational and entertaining. A great watch:)
@Scott.Mariani 4 роки тому
Excellent presentation thank you.
@ivanmamuyac 4 роки тому
So...you're telling me there's a chance...YEAH!
@laureven 2 роки тому
I watched it 10x already, and every single time I focus on something else …great seminar .. Thank You :)
@rhythmandblues_alibi 2 місяці тому
Excellent lecture. Would love to hear more from this speaker!
@Corinthian44 2 роки тому
A brilliant lecture Adam , well done !
@1RobW 5 років тому
Didnt notice how long it was, (expecting maybe 25mins) checked time after 40 mins. Very well presented and engaging. Time flew by.
@Banzybanz 2 роки тому
YNWA
@DoubleGlog 4 роки тому
What a remarkable presentation by an amazing presenter. Adam is suited to explaining and giving great analogies for complex topics such as these. I enjoyed it thoroughly.
@ballhawk387 2 роки тому
There are definitely sports gambling hacks one can do, but most require a fair amount of money, such as playing on the side of the house against emotional tendencies of casual bettors. Also taking advantage of late news that can affect an outcome.
@IamFubario 2 роки тому
Awesome. Can’t believe I watched the whole thing.
@nudesoftheworld 3 роки тому
43:15 "Well done. I wont fall for that again!!!!!"
@ErikMalkavian 6 років тому
I figured this out about the Lottto back in the 1980's but couldn't profit on it.
@funstudiozlt6020 4 роки тому
I really don't know why some people have disliked this video, the video is very great. Good work.
@endasil 4 роки тому
I disliked it because it had an ad in the middle. I dislike all videos that interrupt for ads in the middle and stop watching.
@YoutuberAdmin 3 роки тому
Excellent video! You should do a video on Arbitrages, since they are basically only winning strategy, like those Betnetto surebets.
@aaronwolstenholme8640 3 роки тому
Theres plenty more ways of guaranteing wins
@christopherdesimone206 2 роки тому
@@aaronwolstenholme8640 yep. one way that can work 87% is a rabbit foot. Be sure it's the front right foot which is the real lucky foot.
@christopherdesimone206 2 роки тому
JUST KIDDING forgot to type LOL, sorry.
@aaronwolstenholme8640 2 роки тому
@@christopherdesimone206 so your saying 100% percent that this is the only way?
@elastronaute1198 6 років тому
Professional gamblers don't think along the lines of 'which horse is going to win' - they think in terms of probabilities and chance. You cannot know what is going to happen, only relative probabilities.
@MattDavis_BeechingsGhosts 3 роки тому
4:04 yes but you'd also win all the other tickets such as 5+bonus, 5, 4 and 3 ball combinations so it's not just about winning the top prize but winning ALL the prizes.
@ramalingeswararaobhavaraju5813 3 роки тому
Thank you sir. Thank you Adam Kucharski sir.
@rentslave 7 років тому
Deep Blue turned green when it saw how good I was.
@rjdodgerz2776 Рік тому
Don't ever play in a blackjack table that has a CSM (card shuffler machine). Walk out or just hand them your money and save yourself time.
@SurfinScientist 5 років тому
Great talk!
@weneedthetruth5814 5 років тому
I'll say the title of this video has 5 to 2 odds of drawing in most gamblers to watch it !!! LOL
@poiuyt975 5 років тому
Wanna bet on that? ;)
@MarvinEscotoofficial 3 роки тому
Just a few people will get this... lol
@sbalogh53 5 років тому
43:06 interesting that rock-paper-scissors requires a huge increase in noise level.
@CorwinAlexander 3 роки тому
Rock paper scissors shoot, multiplied a hundred times out of sync
@danielyuan9862 2 роки тому
I liked how he talked about John von Neumann's analysis of poker, because I analyzed basically the exact same problem myself and got similar results: bet when you're big or small, but don't bet if you're somewhere in the middle. To be more specific, you should bet at the top 3/7 of cards, and bluff at the bottom 1/7 of cards, so more often than not you're being truthful on your bet. But this only applies with the specific rules where your opponent can't raise you.
@danielyuan9862 2 роки тому
Timestamp around 36:00 btw
@tylero8595 2 роки тому
This was a superb talk.
@gratemusic3008 4 роки тому
My take away is that when you beat the system, they call you up for a "chat"
@8twospiders 4 роки тому
yes!
@justforfun5391 3 роки тому
only if you get too greedy....
@DannyPhantumm 4 роки тому
If you enjoyed this talk, you should try the book Algorithms to Live By: The Computer Science of Human Decisions (by Brian Christian and Tom Griffiths).
@JamesBermingham 3 роки тому
Just bought this book on Audible on your recommendation 😊
@DannyPhantumm 3 роки тому
@@JamesBermingham Audio book was my choice, too! Hope you enjoy it, man
@JamesBermingham 3 роки тому
@@DannyPhantumm cheers Droh 👍
@bridgelion4968 2 роки тому
Most amazing seminar I ever seen
@iEuno1 5 років тому
You can also compare the potential benefit of science to society and the potential benefit of gambling to society. Gambling works when people want to share, at best, and decide to do so according to some rules, not unlike how law is designed and enforced, including indictments or war, such as in, wage war, at best. Science can solve gambling problem as a potential benefit to society, as well as any other problems, and does not require sharing., even though it can involve sharing.
@jn___livecast6449 5 років тому
that's a cool desk
@wereallmadhere9712 6 років тому
Reminds me of Isildur1 wild card strategy!
@robertharaldsson2881 5 років тому
Oh God PLZ O.O
@sierrajuliet7759 5 років тому
You are worthless
@PhilosopherSci 5 років тому
Is that a Tom Waits reference We're All Mad Here
@Proteus6684 2 місяці тому
Great talk mate, well done
@johnw2758 Рік тому
I can remember golf being exploited quite a few years ago. The bet was hole-in-ones, you'd think it was a rare event and someone realised it wasn't and that it happened at every major tournament . The odds went down drastically after. An interesting one is that you can't bet on something like a streaker invading a match because you could put huge money on and actually make it happen. An interesting book is one called Betting for Fun and Profit, it gives a good insight into betting strategies etc.
@a24396 5 років тому
As one of your cousins from "across the pond" I really am impressed with the high quality of your public discourse, I really wish there was a comparable public institution to The Royal Institution over here. Really quality stuff and excellent presenters. Thanks so much for posting!
@TheRoyalInstitution 5 років тому
Thank you for your kinds words. We're very passionate about encouraging everyone to think more deeply about science and its place in our lives and we try to do this in part by widening access to science discourse. This is why we film and upload most of our public talks, why we create shorter videos and run a monthly podcast. Not everyone can come to our building in London, so we make sure you get almost the full experience online.
@Minuz1 5 років тому
Google talks are sometimes awesome, I highly recommend ukposts.info/have/v-deo/rqN-rZqEe59k030.html "Frank Abagnale: "Catch Me If You Can"
@a24396 4 роки тому
@@Minuz1 Thanks! I'll check them out.
@ckkhong6330 3 роки тому
Well,philosophers have long said that success is hard work plus luck.iam back to the drawing board for my next winning bet.thank you for this lecture.
@TroyWilkinson978 2 роки тому
Brilliant presentation.
@jamesharris8128 2 роки тому
A most wonderful presentation.
@captianmorgan7627 4 роки тому
Luck? Gambling? Those are two words that don't go together. Odds are set by the house.
@garethb1961 5 років тому
I love the winning lottery anecdote. I had a similar situation with card counting at the casino in the 90's. i had a way of beating the system - without being detected (not true of traditional card counting systems). Everyone was skeptical (and remain so to this day) because, as they told me, if I could, I would be down at the casino making money, not talking about it. But I had already calculated that skinning the casino would be harder work than my paid job, less interesting, and inherently risky - as a winning strategy doesn't always amount to wining. I would have been gambling dangerously high ante levels to convert my 0.4% advantage per bet into an income.
@LPCLASSICAL 2 роки тому
as a winning strategy then it did not give you a big enough edge if your day job pays more
@CM-Leviathan 5 років тому
Good speaker! Well performed
@aaamarsters 3 роки тому
I am definite that as far as the horses are concerned, that probability is more definite when your formula is designed to ensure a more collaborated result or results base on 3 to 6 factors
@ClemensAlive 5 років тому
I instantly started my poker software and started to bluff bad hands, no matter what. Worked WAY better than I expected xD So I did NOT play lose or tight. I ignored the middle cards and just played good or bad cards. Of course with some adjustments... (so I just raised preflop with bad cards, when noone did before, for example) Doubled my buy in in just 10 minutes. When I regognized, people saw what I was doing, I left. Made some money. Going to try to replecate that tomorrow
@alexthedeal1827 5 років тому
he won with some bullshit system which is basically bluffing, said he would try it again tomorrow. now it's a month further.......
@yawgmoth5662 5 років тому
I know. It's surprising how people always think they've found some secret method to success. As far as poker goes, we've known how to play optimally for years with range building. You calculate your own odds based on the possible cards you think your opponent could have based on how they play. Tight players will bluff less and usually have better cards when they bet, loose players will bluff more and bet with weaker hands, if you have KhAh they are less likely to have hearts and broadway combos, etc. There is some basic strategy for playing the early rounds of a large tournament but beyond that... I will say that bluffing a lot is going to be good against weaker and tight players, and since the op was playing online he likely just ran into a table with a bunch of noobs/weak players.
@ClemensAlive 5 років тому
@@yawgmoth5662 it was meant like a joke...^^ of course it just works sometimes
@nashos 3 роки тому
Just because it worked once. Doesn't mean it will work longterm
@RealLifeFinance 3 роки тому
Good point. Play a certain way that throws everyone off until they catch on then leave
@peterpreen6031 2 роки тому
what a presenter !! how much knowledge does he have ! I'd need 10 packets of Panadol a day !! credit to you young fella well done and hope you are successful in anything you pursue
@mattschwab5143 2 роки тому
Very well done! Wish there was more.
@johnlamarca9439 5 років тому
Where have you been?! I watched video after video of mathematical ideas for winning the lottery and wasted my time with "What the hell are you talking about?" videos that really made no sense and were very long. You are ACTUALLY making sense here!!
@2kr0n3 6 років тому
Does anyone know if he answered the last question about stocks on video ?
@BobbyIronsights 6 років тому
It's in a separate video q&a
@Pax_Veritas 6 років тому
he didn't have to as that question has already been definitively answered. NO, you should NOT pay someone 2% to manage your money. When that 2% is compounded period after period, the end result is that roughly 2/3rds of your profit is eaten by fees (assuming your fund gives a steady 7% yield). You would be better off investing the money yourself in an indexed fund, a la Jack Bogle. A further nuance or caveat surrounding professional money managers is their general bias towards certain types of stock and security. They will generally look for volatility (higher beta) stocks and take more risks for 2 very good reasons - 1) they get capitalised for free (you give them your money) and they keep 2/3rds of the profit with zero downside (moral hazard gambling with other peoples' money) and 2) the greater the volatility the greater the possible returns Now the debate over volatility (and small/mid/large cap firms) has been raging for decades but Fama & French's theory (Cross-section of expected stock returns, 1992) has been proven correct over longer horizons - i.e if we exclude crashes (such as dotcom bubble, Enron, 2008 crisis) it is better to take the professional money managers' approach, seeking risk and volatility; but when we include the crises, it's better to use F&F's insights
@danpowell806 5 років тому
If they have a continuing record of outperforming the market by more than their fee, it is worth it. None of the brokerages have a surprisingly long streak of doing so.
@8twospiders 4 роки тому
I got kicked off a table in Vegas because I was changing my bet. They took me in the back and explained to me that this was entertainment. They asked if had been entertained.
@tylerspiegel3294 2 місяці тому
So... were you?
@Dyslexic-Artist-Theory-on-Time 5 років тому
Good info!!!
@derekpascal3749 2 роки тому
I listen to this on my way to sleep each night. It never fails.
@AjarnMatt 5 років тому
27:25 'regression to mediocrity' and nice diagram outlining regression theory in statistics using horse pedigree
@korkey999 6 років тому
The house eventually wins in Blackjack purely because you get the chance to go bust first. They may go bust on the same hand but you are already out of the game and they have taken your bet. Thus they effectively win when it's a draw. Worked that out meself, cool.
@damisnsilletti2762 6 років тому
korkey999 there's a system out there where you always stand on 12 n over. Takes that out of equation n u win more guranteed
@korkey999 6 років тому
Damisn Silletti not according to the maths. If you can count the number of 10s dealt you can increase the odds but my memory is rubbish.
@damisnsilletti2762 6 років тому
korkey999 if he has a ten you probably lost anyway so stand on all 12 or above the basic strategy is bullshit it turns out watch video i tried it on an app not real life works great try it
@juliancourtland-smith8917 6 років тому
Th house does not necessarily. If you use a Blackjack Strategy Chart and sensible wagering strategy you can be on top. Blackjack is the best form of casino gambling, i.e. highest returns to punter. I played Blackjack online years ago and made a return of £400 per month before I moved onto sports trading.
@verdelllewis3563 6 років тому
korkey999. not true u need 2 be trainned by a card counter want 2 try that ? kevin lewis 119 w mitchell st. mil; wi 53204 text me at 1414 204-3426
@jaystock9202 4 роки тому
I used to track Aces in BJ. That spot about memorizing cards is spot on
@johnw2758 Рік тому
I can remember years ago with the arcade horses (sometimes it was cars) that ran on a track wether eventually, if you wrote down every race result, you would hit a system where the loop begins and you would know the result of every race.
@JacobsBadminton 3 роки тому
Just found this but what a great lecture from a professional. Breaks down gambling in a great way making it easy to understand and digest. Thoroughly enjoy the depth and thinking in the lecture.
@kgmarcussen Рік тому
When I was 8 years old, my dad worked at a speedway gas station in Ohio, USA. Sitting behind the counter and bored, I started studying the back of scratch off tickets, and I found the pattern for winners. Dad wouldn’t let me go through the reels and pick out the winners for purchase. He also would pass on purchasing known winners when I spotted them as the next ticket. One time a guy came in and said something like “hey kid, which one is a winner.” I told him something like, the first two on this row are losers, but the third one is a winner. He told my dad, 3 of those tickets. He scratched them right there and won $25 on the third ticket. For a $3 investment, that was a pretty nice win, and could have been a million dollars to me. I think he handed me $10 from his win, which my dad refused. From then on out, I wasn’t allowed to be behind the counter let alone look at lottery tickets. I found out many years later when I was an adult what my dad’s job was in the military, and how much highly classified formation he handled on a daily basis. Essentially, he told me he never let me exploit the lottery because he feared that sort of criminal collaboration would show up in his lie detector tests and he was morally against cheating as well as afraid of the consequences the military would have on him.
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