I Simulated EURO 2024 10,000 Times.
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Many thanks to Craig Edwards from @UnderthePitch!
Here's how the simulation works: • EURO 2024 Simulations:...
In this video, James Allcott simulates EURO 2024 10,000 times and looks at every group, how the knockout stage could look, likely routes to the final and who could win.
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James Allcott content focuses on Premier League, Champions League, EFL Championship talking about Manchester United, Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham, Barcelona, England, Chelsea, Jurgen Klopp, Erik Ten Hag, Mikel Arteta, transfer news, tactical analysis and much more. James has made content with Mark Goldbridge from the United Stand, Rory Jennings, Ben Foster, Spencer FC, The Club, Thogden, JaackMaate, ESPN and many more.
#PremierLeague #JLA #football
@twenty-two8651 13 днів тому
Well I simulated it 10 001 times and still have no girlfriend.
@omorodionblessing8608 10 днів тому
Related comment
@bettercalIsaul 8 днів тому
A bit like England
@mihaistoichescu9745 3 дні тому
Ok
@ShaunLevett 13 днів тому
That's so like Switzerland to draw every game. Nice and neutral.
@Flewisjr 13 днів тому
After the tournament is finished, can you show what simulation was the closest?
@ramon7473 3 дні тому
Very good idea!
@HarryFernandes15 2 дні тому
that be very interesting
@sandrobarreto7002 День тому
That would be insane, imagine if one of the 10'000 simulations was actually spot on!
@Stolz_statt_Scholz 13 днів тому
I mean you need to simulate Bundesliga 18000 times, to get the unbeaten Leverkusen
@awieaffe4278 7 днів тому
we just good buddy
@gabrielpatrick2051 День тому
Bro I don't believe 18000 simulations would give us unbeaten Leverkusen Maybe Bayern in some moments, but not Leverkusen
@sallagjanos7288 8 годин тому
@@gabrielpatrick2051 Bayern would get one in like 50, or even less
@MichaelJones-wh9cy 13 днів тому
Makes sense if Portugal have a very high likelihood of getting out of their group, means they're less likely to trip up earlier on
@brgracio 12 днів тому
Yeah, in this sim we (Portugal) have more tries than anyone else, so it can make the difference in the number of tournament wins. It would be interesting to see a metric like #tournament wins / # knockout qualifications. That would help remove the bias from having an easier group.
@otto_jk 13 днів тому
I think the simulation heavily underestimates how big a difference Germany having the home advantage gives them. There's no way Belgium are bigger favourites than Germany.
@UnderThePitch 13 днів тому
Hi, I made the simulations and Germany’s home advantage was taken into account. I think the model favours Belgium as over the past couple years they’ve been a bit more consistent than Germany, who have dropped to 16th in the World Rankings compared to Belgium being 3rd. That paired with Belgium having a much more generous group than Germany (Belgium get out the group 90% of the time compared to Germany’s 84%), I can see why the model has Belgium ahead of Germany. (However, personally I agree with you and think Germany have a good chance)
@otto_jk 13 днів тому
@@UnderThePitch With Belgium and Germany specifically, the simulation also hasn't taken into account how heavily the squads have changed recently. Nagelsmann+Kroos basically makes the Flick era data irrelevant and similarly Belgium have recently lost key players like Hazard and Alderweireld. Also Belgiums consistent dominance against weak teams even though they aren't that good against big teams makes them stronger in the rankings than they actually are.
@antoniobento2105 13 днів тому
You are absolutely right Belgium is very underrated. Also Portugal being favourites doesn't surprise me considering that after the round of 16 they get in the oposite side (meaning they will likely only face France, England or Belgium in the finals and not before) and that gives them a huge probabilistic advantage. I had calculated arround 16% chance of them winning but that's with a little bit of bias and hope because I am portuguese. Nice work! :)@@UnderThePitch
@detectivefabes 12 днів тому
It’s because Germany is bad
@otto_jk 12 днів тому
@@detectivefabes Germany just beat France
@tfc91420 13 днів тому
Portugal probably has a top 3 squad in Europe right now, the easiest group and the easiest side of the bracket if they win their group. It makes a lot of sense that they finished top of this tbh.
@joao_monteiro22 3 дні тому
you on drugs
@codiesmith9425 13 днів тому
Please can you make an analysis of Arne Slot's tactics and how Liverpool would play with them?
@bigted6351 13 днів тому
I've been waiting for this too. Complete the trilogy after Alonso and Amorim
@ProducerCai 13 днів тому
👀
@thew5262 13 днів тому
Bald n vibes
@JamesLawrenceAllcott 13 днів тому
Keep an eye on the channel tomorrow! 👀
@Saka_is_overrated 13 днів тому
Yes PLS!
@markstrauss7178 11 днів тому
I actually predict Portugal will have a surprisingly early exit this year. I think that the stats favour them so much because of their qualification record. However, they had a really easy group and didn’t look too convincing with their narrow victories over Slovakia and Iceland. I predict a round of 16 or quarter final exit for them.
@radiatormike6090 10 днів тому
Partly agree with you, I don’t think they’ll exit early but I really don’t think they’ll win it, but who knows
@dariussalepetru6770 10 днів тому
@@radiatormike6090 True! I think England, Germany or France is going to win Euro 2024 now
@radiatormike6090 10 днів тому
@@dariussalepetru6770 I actually completely agree with those 3 yeah, as an England fan I'll will always hold some optimism aha
@kretecek_rl 4 дні тому
I would go with quarters or semis. They are a good team, but no shot they have a better chance than Spain, England or France. My top 5 only have Belgium changed with Germany and some different placements with France and England on top.
@someone8653 2 дні тому
Quarters are not too early.. But i agree with RO16 I Think they will go out in the RO16 too and pass 2nd in their group.
@TheGreatKerro 13 днів тому
As a Scot, in this moment in time I feel we are going home with no points and no goals.
@tbow6719 13 днів тому
This explains a lot about why Scot’s celebrate other nations beating England as much as their own team winning
@jamesg9468 13 днів тому
And yet, most English wouldn't mind seeing the Scots do alright. Who is the bigger man here?
@OleAndreasMessi 13 днів тому
As a Norwegian, atleast you're going...
@TheGreatKerro 12 днів тому
@@tbow6719 being winless in 7 is a killer for the belief machine
@finlaygodfrey8222 12 днів тому
@@TheGreatKerroinjuries galore as well😢
@LetsTalkFPL 13 днів тому
Not watched yet but I imagine England win 9,999 times.
@Dwayndibb 12 днів тому
He must be using Pep or Klopp as the manager.
@NotApplicableF1 13 днів тому
These videos are so so so good. Thank you so much again James.
@10ondra 13 днів тому
Love the 8150, where Czech Republic makes the semis.
@BohemianRaichu 13 днів тому
I've been saying that people are sleeping on Portugal. I deserve a cookie.
@bhvillaman4401 13 днів тому
People been saying that since the dawn of time and what have they won? 1 euros?
@BohemianRaichu 13 днів тому
@@bhvillaman4401 more Euros than a fair few countries, including England.
@wesley5900 13 днів тому
@@bhvillaman4401 dos incoming
@user-dt4sb1dw5t 13 днів тому
Surely that just makes you a bot
@jamesg9468 13 днів тому
Lol imagine thinking Portugal are a dark horse. Most predictions have England, France and Portugal as the top contenders.
@hudsonrolfe9633 13 днів тому
The "more like stimulation" line killed me, something straight out of a skit show didn't know you had it in you James 🤣
@CallumStephens2705 13 днів тому
I did some data crunching and decided that Slovakia are the most likely dark horses outside the obvious teams so put £1 on them to win the whole thing 😂
@joelschittenhelm5571 8 днів тому
If you put 1 on every Team its not that big of a loss if a favourite team wins but probably a massiv win if an underdog wins
@brucemccrorie3751 12 днів тому
Vamos Portugal!! 🇵🇹
@dariussalepetru6770 10 днів тому
Good luck from Romania 🇷🇴💛🇵🇹
@sasch_xd6323 8 днів тому
🫶🇵🇹🤝🇷🇴@@dariussalepetru6770
@kd5973 13 днів тому
I would say Portugal are by far the faves. Their form is insane right now. They’re scoring a ton of goals.
@jamesg9468 13 днів тому
Portugal are up there, but "by far" is a bit fruity. England and France are the joint favourites, followed by Portugal and Spain.
@henriquecaldas835 6 днів тому
@@jamesg9468England???? Did you saw they playing football on the last national games?
@Briareos1712 11 годин тому
Well... Germany just beat France, so... Consider putting them up there as well
@reecevanwyk2579 13 днів тому
I've been waiting for this video😏❤
@BSandman 13 днів тому
So there’s going to be a lot of draws and pens in the knockouts and maybe a upset here and there, also a dark horse run as well. Going to be an exciting tournament!
@echoinstereo5659 13 днів тому
I’d rather have England win 4-3 over everyone than win the whole tournament by one goal, but with Southgate still at the helm winning with only one goal seems on brand. Rooting for England this summer from across the pond!
@jamesg9468 13 днів тому
Mate I'm old enough to remember when England would labour to score 1 goal against teams ranked 70th in the world, and with Southgate we've scored 6 goals in single games at major tournaments. Not saying Southgate tactics are great, but don't pretend we are starved on goals.
@sheilaburrowes9081 5 днів тому
👍👍👍
@lewistrundell9466 13 днів тому
Bloody love a JLA video
@evanmurphy122 13 днів тому
I love the thought that someone would want to watch Amerifan commentary for the Euros
@sheilaburrowes9081 5 днів тому
I adore the retro look on the knockout brackets. It looks like a mid '00s Euros.
@Young-fy9jj 13 днів тому
do a vid after euros reflecting to see how accurate it was
@HawkEye665 День тому
Being polish football fan is hard 9:56
@Alaiksandr 13 днів тому
It would be amazing for England to play Portugal at some point in the knockouts. We have some revenge to dish out.
@Thomas-xi3yd 5 днів тому
Lol it is portugal that have some revenge to dish out
@jakelfc3472 13 днів тому
It's teams from group B other than Albania and the winners of group A, C, D and F that will win the overall tournament. It all depends on whether Spain win group B and won't/don't lose all their knockout matches other than the final, or England beat the third placed team in that group (probably not Croatia) and have a shot at facing France (winner of group D) in the semi-final. England are hoping that Portugal (winner of group F) face Germany (winner of group A) in the other side of the draw in a semi-final, so we have a chance of playing the game of our lives to beat France (who I believe only Germany have the beating of). It's possible that the semi final is a repeat of the nations league final Spain vs Croatia, or the World cup final of 2018 being a final between France vs Croatia. That's what the simulator should have told us.
@adanaliz01 6 днів тому
is there a place where you can see all the simulations?
@Audiostyleable 13 днів тому
Love the outro
@empty420 13 днів тому
It makes senses that portugal is above france taken in consideration the strenght of the groups in the first round due to the group of france being way stronger than the one of portugal the chance of maken it out of the group of portugal is way higher and if they make it out to be first because then you have to face weaker opisition wich means that it less likely for portugal to face an oponent like england or france in the first round of knock-outs this means its more likely to get further in the tournament and win the entire thing -
@miken56 13 днів тому
That simulation noise transition noise sounds like a tech bug in my ear
@froodlenoodle 13 днів тому
gotta love the three "first" videos, excited to watch england win 4 times and norway manage to win it 5 times somehow
@JosephTaroni 10 днів тому
Wonder if by the end of the tournament any of the simulation got the entire thing spot on
@hanys6201 19 годин тому
As a Polish dude I can see that group D looks pretty realistic, we gonna finish 4th and just say cy@ to whole Ass EURO 2024
@Luke-ft4wo 2 дні тому
Bro Serbia coming below Slovenia is MAD
@littlelucy100x8 13 днів тому
Big up Craig
@kempyj98 13 днів тому
If we lose in the final to Scotland I'll be searching my family tree for another nationality
@cindella204 9 днів тому
I’m based in Washington DC where the embassies like to host watch events, and I’m trying to imagine the British Embassy’s joint watch event for an England v Scotland final, and then what happens when Scotland declares independence the next day 😂
@rredy 3 дні тому
12:32 czeczia
@julioleiva2037 6 днів тому
4:25 boca juniors be like
@JonMcglynn 13 днів тому
Where’s the SLOT video his stile of playing the man and how he would line out ?
@nestpasunepipe1173 День тому
can you simulate 10000 more for recent euro so that we can be sure that the simulation works pls
@PatrickvanStokken 13 днів тому
Better watch this right away before it gets deleted like the relegation prediction vid!
@aloysiusthefish7076 11 днів тому
The transition sound effect sounds like erupting splooge
@maxakal2408 День тому
Please note that its not called Turkey any more, its official name is Turkiye.
@CalciatoriCollector0217 2 дні тому
Georgia has the highest possibility to get bottom, but nice video 🎉
@rafa_maia 6 днів тому
is there a way for people to use this simulation?
@Andy-w33to 13 днів тому
Portugal with some mad easy group tax
@eastres6863 13 днів тому
i feel the same way about spain as he feels about england. uncomfortable with the idea that we should be expected to win this group. i think we really need a showing this tournament that gives us some pride and confidence again. hoping for a breakout goalscorer. VIVA LA ROJA
@SinoLegionaire 13 днів тому
It’s official, a Scotsman made this simulation
@jamesg9468 13 днів тому
Jimbo is part Scotch.
@ryancook3039 13 днів тому
Cheers Jim I needed this to know which days to book off work ❤
@devangg 13 днів тому
Loved the take me out part 😂😂😂
@techfreak2227 13 днів тому
Devang ????
@devangg 13 днів тому
@@techfreak2227 yeah?
@techfreak2227 12 днів тому
@@devangg it's you , are you in 12th or no ?
@stein4866 8 днів тому
a fourteen minute video with a two minute ad😂
@alexandre4970 13 днів тому
Damn. We favorites? That means we are crashing out in the group stage.
@wijnandfens2259 10 днів тому
You are the first one who use the right schedule (Best #3 rule) the best numbers 3 are distributed differently over the 1st knock out round, because it is determined from which groups the numbers 3 come from, based on that 'code' it is determined where the country is placed in the next round. Poules vs 1B vs 1C vs 1E vs 1F ABCD 3A 3D 3B 3C ABCE 3A 3E 3B 3C ABCF 3A 3F 3B 3C ABDE 3D 3E 3A 3B ABDF 3D 3F 3A 3B ABEF 3E 3F 3B 3A ACDE 3E 3D 3C 3A ACDF 3F 3D 3C 3A ACEF 3E 3F 3C 3A ADEF 3E 3F 3D 3A BCDE 3E 3D 3B 3C BCDF 3F 3D 3C 3B BCEF 3F 3E 3C 3B BDEF 3F 3E 3D 3B CDEF 3F 3E 3D 3C Great!!! Al the youtubers who made a prediction with 'the Telegraph' schedule are wrong, cause that schedule isn't right. So keep up the good work!
@edavis6077 13 днів тому
PORTUGAAALLLLLL
@thechroniknerd 12 днів тому
I love this video! I also hate the sound effects
@roberw1912 7 днів тому
I have a dark horse in Germany Florian Wirtz is going to make the difference in his ability to score and give assists.
@raphaelweber8007 5 днів тому
7:43 what about England in the semi finals 🫢🤣
@Alex-yv4vr 13 днів тому
10,000 is obviously a lot of sims. But with such variance, it’s probably not a large enough sample size
@bogomildimov6360 14 годин тому
While I do think FM has always, rather undeserved, favored England for good International performances, this EURO might just be the one England finally wins. I mean, I have never seen England so powerful. 2018, 2021 and 2022 have been good for them, but now the team has matured and many of their players are comfortably among the top players in the world. I'd say England and France will be the top favorites. Portugal is the third option. I can't see any other team winning it, unless Italy pulls an Italy and fucks everybody up like they tend to do, from time to time, out of fucking nowhere.
@matthewtillett3624 13 днів тому
When’s the Liverpool slot coming ?
@deepxgamer2313 12 днів тому
portugal we have a soild team this year soild in every position I bewe can reach the final semifinalists euro 2000 finalists euro 2004 2012 semifinalists 2016 winner's
@gs_bilo1493 2 дні тому
Just put 500€ to Portugal winning the euros. Thanks for your advice
@kempyj98 13 днів тому
Turkey Austria and Switzerland feel like parennial 3rd place dark horses🤣
@Thomas-jl8xr 13 днів тому
zwitzerland going for the portugal 2016 route
@Mr.Galaxxxxxxxxxxy 13 днів тому
San Marino 🇸🇲 🙌🏾
@just_a_yokai1103 13 днів тому
12:33 France against who? It is confusing that Czechia and Chechnya are written the same in the middle but are pronounced differently
@darrenadams77 13 днів тому
i would never mentally or financially recover from a Scotland england final. Hadrian's wall would be rebuilt and Wallace could finally rest. CMONNNNN!
@jamesg9468 13 днів тому
The Scotch will get 0 points and 0 goals, thanks for coming though.
@spooked2104 13 днів тому
Germany pens {Neuer}
@henrybauze2932 13 днів тому
I think Portugal won so many times because they had the easiest group and so got through in about 2 thirds of sims - also explains why France was so low If you did it from the most common knockout configuration I’d say England wins most of the time
@mahfuzrahman5930 13 днів тому
What happened to the fall out
@AndrewL4me 13 днів тому
What happens in the simulations with the English media, any good stories?
@patrikivic2695 3 дні тому
The Godfather part 1
@Kbdvlogsfan 13 днів тому
The biggest takeaway from this video for me is that Scotland are winning the final against England 😍
@adampatel1727 13 днів тому
James wheres the slot Liverpool video maaaan
@thomashart3473 13 днів тому
I really fancy Netherlands to win it, but i dont know why 🤔
@nate_wil 12 днів тому
So you're saying it's a 11.48% chance "it's coming home"?
@Nippleless_Cage 13 днів тому
Methinks Craig's method overestimates the likelihood of 0-0 draws in every round. 🤔
@TesteurTrois 4 дні тому
Euro 2024 final : Spain 2-1 England
@Gugenzi 13 днів тому
🇬🇪 ITS COMING HOMEE‼️‼️
@ricardo_ribeirete 7 днів тому
Let's go Portugal 🇵🇹
@mike727272 12 днів тому
Portugal 🇵🇹🇵🇹🇵🇹❤🎉🎉 Força Portugal 🇵🇹 🍻❤️👏💪💪💪
@connorwatt507 13 днів тому
If scotland beat england in the final of the euros, we kick england out of the uk not us 😂😂
@eldo7112 4 дні тому
13:23 might as well have not censored the countries flags at all, you can see every one jesus
@nope2dat 11 днів тому
England somehow winning despite only scoring 1 goal in the knockouts I think might actually explode the brains of the Southgate out gang
@ChorltonOutlaw 13 днів тому
OK bro
@tobiwan001 5 днів тому
Portugal has the easiest group but I doubt they have a realistic chance.
@noskill4510 11 днів тому
I'm German and allthough I'd like the outcome of sim 7820, I'm sure my nerves wont...
@Jamie-kf2vf 10 днів тому
I'm not disputing the simulations, but for me I'd swap Portugal and France for the number 1 spot. I think number 1 will be England or France, but with Southgate it's hard to imagine England reaching their potential.
@otakubaka4271 6 днів тому
The reason why portugal are favorites on stats its because they are a top 3 side with the easiest group More chanses to go 1st and easier first round of 16 more times than france and england Theyre most likely path is also way easier with england and france being on the same side of the knockouts with portugal on the other side if all 3 teams finish first in theire group
@Jose-fb1yu 3 дні тому
La simulación 8540 me gusta
@LeaguePredictor 13 днів тому
I know a place you can predict your Euros versus friends and the World
@ya2u 7 днів тому
I'm living in simulation 5916
@ohno6044 13 днів тому
i love you
@victordemoura448 12 днів тому
Força Portugal 🇵🇹
@lukas2921 7 годин тому
Bet 5€ on Portugal. Hope the simulation works
@Timi7272 День тому
VPNs don't work with a lot of streaming services. Don't advertise them.
@jhannon27 13 днів тому
you mean it wasnt simulated using football manager?!
@jamesgolightly5320 13 днів тому
Model must be pretty flawed to have Germany so low and france third faves only slightly ahead of Spain. Just compare this to the bookies odds.
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