Two Stephen Kotkin videos in one day (The other one is in the Hoover institute channel). This is such a treat!

Why can't we have a world where Stephen Kotkin is President

These guys should be running the State Department

How brilliant is Kotkin?! No-one else brings alive complex geopolitics like he does.

These two should start a podcast together.

Wow! So educational! We are so lucky to have these two great minds to listen to.

I know you felt the need to break it up because it was so long but I listened to all of it in one stretch anyway. It was great.

Two great minds. The best, the latest, most complete and honest, and most insightful discussion on the topic.

I like how this whole discussion is framed. We, Americans are the ruling civilisation, China was our low-cost center, they refused to fulfill this role, we are happy to take them back as our low-cost center. We are generous. Just don't compete with us.

More Kotkin, more Schell. This is a great discussion; very informative and enriching. Thanks!

😂😂😂😂 27:01 Absolutely love listening to Kotkin. He is a real gem . 😎👍🏻🇦🇺

One of the best and clearest analyses of Russia and China on the world stage

12:00 is a really great point. "Why is this happening?" China was dealt the best hand ever; America wanted China to become rich (because we thought it would make them democratic); foreign-direct investment poured in; the American-led global order nearly collapsed under its own weight in 2008; America lost all international credibility with the election of Donald Trump. All China had to do was be moderately friendly for another 10-20 years, and they could have realigned global politics in their favor. Instead, they immediately pounced on their neighbors, cracked down at home, went on a navy building spree, and just became openly hostile to every non-subordinated country. They squandered their best chance to actually achieve their stated goal.

Two Kotkin drops in one day, and I feel spoiled.

“Stuck in a DO Loop” Steve is absolutely brilliant. I wonder how many politicians know what a DO loop is?

I loved these two part conversations. I had actually posted a comment on another podcast channel that I would like to hear a conversation exactly like this one between these two gentlemen. Then these just popped up! Im grateful that my desire, and that of thousands of others, had already been anticipated and responded to. In the same vein, I would be interested to hear Steve and Orville comment on some of Peter Zeihan's apocalyptic predictions of China's demographic and supply chain challenges going forward. Of course if China invaded Taiwan, all bets would be off!

Rule # 1 - Stephen Kotkin is right Rule # 2 - Don't forget Rule # 1

Brilliant. Many thanks.

Thought provoking. Kotkin is always worth listening to. Now I have to watch Schnell: another valuable insight. But Kotkin has a perspective that challenges anyone and everyone. A couple of hours of engagement with people of this level of insight is worth than years of university study for a PPE degree.

Kotkin & Schell are Rock stars..Amazing convo!

Great questions and conversation. Thank you.

Ohhh, nice to find this part 2 in my feed.

Congratulations Dan on a great podcast my new favourite ❤

Wonderful conversation and great sense-making.

Holy molly ! 2 Kotkin interview drops in one day!! Oh boy oboy oh boy...

Thank you very much folks. Very educational information.

Terrific. Thank you

Great discussion.

More Kotkin pls

Stephen is just “Brilliant”! Loved these 2 parts!😊

Great conversation

Great stuff, thanks

Ecce Kotkin -- bravo maestro

Another excellent presentation.

incredible analysis of the world as it is - not the opinionated one of the main press or politicians. Thank you for posting

Great discussion from two giant luminaries of the academic world. I just wish we could be in a world where there is more in-depth discussion of issues, rather than tribal fights on policy.

Thanks for Uploading.

Excellent analysis of the current situation. The only problem is that the Chinese and the Russians are not in the market for it.

Am I the only one who skips through Schell's parts to just listen to Kotkin?

What an intelligent, substantive and helpful discussion! Thank you very much!

I’d like to see more of Orvelle Schell ! I’ve listened to Stephen Kotkin every chance I’ve had; But, Schell is new to me and China is still an Enigma.

@ 47:32 For France to give up its imperial tendencies, there have been 6 coalition wars and Franco-Prussian war. What would it take for Russia to set aside its imperial tendencies?

Where is the link to part 1??? 👀

Really enjoyed the discussion. Interesting point made how logic vs national leaders ego drive national policy. A leaders own ego may play even bigger role in authoritarian societies.

Thank you sir for this decision

This chat is so interesting.. I’m a commoner that thinks beyond my pay grade, and worry that our leaders and thinkers are just playing ostrich politics.. this talk is so refreshing.. I do wish my “commoner ass” was sitting in at the afterparty….

That was very insightful and I had a blast. Thank you very much I enjoyed listening and appreaciate their perspectives.

Brilliant

Stephen ❤… ..my FAVE! !

Lived in China missing my Students! I could probably get in Not sure I could get Out!

I am with them, a very good explanation of the two main strange moves; Why, for heaven's sake, did Putin make such a miscalculation (unless he stupidly took TFG/45's assurance he'd weakened the West/NATO alliance enough) Then how did the Chinese, crammed with smart people, join the lunatic? I was troubled when Xi started down the autocratic road, but this was very strange. Always there is the hope that such clever, and thoughtful people of goodwill we have just heard, DO exist among our, and even their, leaders.

Best two to listen to on the problems that were having!

Sweet first the Hoover had Kotkins now F>A, life is good, thanks fer the work! Both oh ya...

Why are European countries not upholding Western values? Why have they forgotten the lessons of WW2?

I find Dr. Kotkin speaks in ways others can hear. This is particularly important when the “others” are hostile or afraid. Dr. Schell speaks with words that too often sound like he is better than the “other.” I’d be happy to see Dr. Kotkin negotiate with China, though not so much Dr. Schell.

This was like kotkin at 8pm on a Saturday.

I really appreciate Kotkins insights and analyses of the situation regarding Russia, Ukraine, and China.

Why does the Indonesian minister of maritime and investment affairs say that investment from China comes with no strings (“they never, ever, dictate”) while investment from the US comes with “a list of onerous conditions”? Those quoted statements make it seem that at least some think China is less coercive than the US. Seems like an image problem that the US needs to address, no?

Can we swap the state department for these two guys?

Stephen, the Chinese provided the North Koreans with all their nuclear and military hardware from day one, as you say they don’t want a reunification! NK has been basically a Chinese vassal state!

Need these guys to have a sit down chat with Tucker Carlson and Steven Crowder.

great great people! Thanks for this!

Yass!

why do they say "the ukraine" isn't that russian propaganda not recognizing it as a country?

The same issue, but in a far more exaggerated manner, has been playing out in Iran of the last four decades. CCP is not a Chinese state and the Islamic Republic is definitely not an Iranian state. Putin started off as a Russian state, at least in being able to provide, for a brief period, what was required of a Russian state! What we now have are three non states engaged in what amounts to a “reverse adaptation “ (the ecology to the animal) by degrading the ecology and rearranging the western based ecosystem!

Psychology vs hard logic.Good point.

I wish we could get some of these guys or gals in or political offices. Very insightful and thoughtful. Thanks!

19:32

If China keeps doubling down, and unfortunately it is looking that way. Their people will face a severe famine when those shipping lanes are blockaded which as Kotkin states, would be very easy by a western alliance. Their geography and dependence on imports for food is crippling in any major conflict. If Xi was smart he wouldn't be so bent on world conquest, he should learn from his pal putin what that would look like. Given paranoia is part and parcel with these despots, there is something all or nothing about the behavior of these dictatorships that would imply they are on the verge of collapse / regime change.

Well, I hold almost an opposite view from Schell. Based on the looooong history of China, it’s not looking good. Please bear in mind that Taiwan and Hong Kong aren’t typical “China” part. Taiwan has paid quite a price to get to today’s position and they had President Li who is not really a typical Chinese. Xi is a complete different story. He reminds me some sort of Ming dynasty emperors. And due to personality, I don’t think Xi would ever divide any issues and reach an agreement etc with the West. He is not Mao nor Dang. All or nothing. Compromise is seemed to be weakness. He can’t afford and will not accept to lose face.

Minsk agreement duplicity has consequences. Might makes right. Russia now has enough might to be right.

As the globe integrates, nations hold their unique cultural and historical distinctiveness. They do not dissolve. They are not soluble. The story is very different in the political realm and for the future of their political leaders. They go from a product of their histories to a future commodity in the open world wide political market! Therein lies the existential and metaphysical conflict of interest between these leaders and their nations’ trajectories. One is not soluble; the other, is!

America needs to restore everything it truly needs for a case of national emergency. It's a bill, but it's past due. While being intertwined has probably kept the peace, we can't trust Xi to not be aggressive over Taiwan. Edit: thé.US niilitaey shouldn't be dependant on China for rare earth material, but I heard that development was underway in Australia.

Compulsive conversation sadly it only touches on the issues of today and what happens going forward. Both Putin and XI are old school Communists, Putin claimed the worst disaster of the C20th was the downfall of the Soviet Union leading to the annexation of the Crimea followed by the current war with Ukraine and Xi has committed the CCP to reverse the reforms of Deng Xiaoping moving China back to the ideologies of Mao. But what is I think the real question should be, will the current collapse of both their economies and the loss of trade with the west change the elite and powerful into understanding friendly cooperation with the west is in their own interests or not after the experience of being part of the global trade markets? The damage both have done economically to their respective countries both now and into the future is incomprehensible but will that matter will their Governments survive or will the people find their voice and demand change or will the people who benefitted most want to return and engage again like they did before? or is it all to late

United First Island Chain Alliance together, push back CCP agression... Then, we can talk about terms.

Prof. Kotkin, is the west an open society? Really, with all the neo-liberal partisanship going on in the USA and Europe, against alternative views to government policies, national and foreign, and increasing media and corporate censorship against people holding alternative views to the state policy?

military capability is the color and the culture of the cold war and not intentions. what can they do and not what they want to do. counter their military capability, either by "The Art of War" or "On War" counter. It is war by any means....

What drives Putin is the psychological necessity of not facing up to Russia's challenge: it's going to lose everything east of the Urals, and in roughly the same time-frame it took to lose the Warsaw Pact countries, a generation. Xi: two problems, making a graceful exit from Marxism and keeping a supply of energy. In the long run, all of these are the same single problem, and both of them know it. More Fulbrights for Tuvans! Now! And maybe rebuild that Fuller Dymaxion Dome in Kabul...

This a superb discussion, thanks.

Case and effect…..is real

So good. You notice there is rarely much discussion by either of these men about how US domestic politics plays a role here. Bill Gates doesn't talk about this either...

Stephen is interesting but he can’t stop talking let Orval speak

Instead of China building out their nuclear capability why not just buy Russia's weapons? Win win for the two of them. 😉🙂

This podcast is a neoconservative dreamscape.

Haha if you could honestly poll the Russian population if they prefer or identify with Europe and the west vs China, North korea, UAE and Iran...

This interview raises THE interesting point - these two guys study history and geopolitics, one is even a China “expert” - and neither one understands or grasps “China’s view” or why. And they admit it! I can tell you the China side is just as confused. That gap is where the danger and mistakes lurk.

⁠​⁠Xi see being victim as the path to being great. He recently ask young Chinese to “eat bitterness” 吃苦 willingly, because suffering makes them stronger and being great in future. That’s Xi’s own experience, so he can link his success as a dictator to his suffering during Cultural Revolution. I know many Chinese, young and old, think that way too. Because in dictator’s mind, he equals the whole country, so China now has to endure suffering and struggle and being victim all the time to be great again.

The contest between USA and China are economical as well as ideology in same order and effect. Those who think its only ideology should also read why suddenly anti-Japanese sentiments got prevalent in USA in 1980-90s , as Japan was closing-in in economy. Also in simple words, The world has been and will be run by the rule of most powerful nation's ideology.

What’s missing, it seems to me, from the Russian perspective, the West having a 30 sum military alliance on their border, with nukes etc., it doesn’t allow for Putin and the leadership much confidence in coming to a mutual solution or compromise. Last month’s issue of Harper’s magazine, has quite a detailed analysis, essay, of the existential threat facing Russia. A 30 sum military alliance on their border! And we’re expecting them not to ‘flinch’! What about a European alliance of all concerned countries , including Russia, that work on existential threats like Global Warming or the absolute situation of some African countries, with war, famine, climate catastrophes?

Was Stephen Kotkin channeling King George III talking about the American Revolution? The American colonies are playing a losing game. They feel shut out and marginalized. Decoupled, the colonies will have no access to the trading routes of the Empire. They have a single coast with a barren wasteland inhabited by savages to the West. Their coastline can be easily blockaded by the British navy. Are the colonies prepared to be completely cut off from the Empire, FOREVER? The colonies are culturally English. It will be a difficult proposition to sell. They can do anti-Monarchism in the colonies, it is “mother’s milk”, it is the way the rebels maintain their grip and hold on society. It is “what’s on the shelf”. Eventually the colonies will become a vassal to France and some colonials sense that. Do they really want to be French? And what will the French get by supporting the losing rebels? To lose more colonies like they did during the Seven Years War? WHY ARE THEY DOING THIS? Look at the good thing going they had in the British Empire. We all “share and care” and we will all get rich. The colonies “had their cake and were eating it to”. Look at what we gave them, victory over the French in the Seven Years War, but they have done nothing to reciprocate/pay for it. On the one hand the colonies are the principal beneficiaries but see the Empire as their biggest threat. It looks “crazy and idiotic”. What the British did to the United States does not compare to the brutality of the American Civil War, what they did to themselves. We will have to wait until the archives open to see the true savagery. Imagine how much better off they would have been as British colonies. The rebellion was a military victory for the colonies but a strategic defeat for them. How will they ever recover? It is interesting to watch this miscalculation. No countries thrive independent from the Empire! (Like India, Vietnam, Singapore, etc.) We will get the colonies back, not by military action but “we will GET THEM” by peaceful evolution. (Perfidious Albion) Washington, Jefferson & Franklin are retrograde leaders, they shall pass, but the Monarchy is forever, so reintegration is inevitable. All of this colonial victim-culture / resentment was created by Marx & Lenin!!! Today’s world is an extension of the British Empire. YES!!! King George III died never understanding the American Revolution. So, next up for the United States will be another version of the Coercive Acts & Battle of Yorktown. (sigh)

You just don’t like the fact that they won’t be subordinate and that the very worst sin that they have a policy of fairer redistribution of wealth. With the later being the obvious future failure point of American capitalism, you can see that in rapid progress today. The US neoliberal open society could never function in such a diverse and populous landmass.

China and XI's model is 1984

She probably denounced his own father... that may be the syndrome...

👍

look up the definition of "rejuvenate". the silk road was around hundreds of years before the start of the roman empire and lasted hundreds after its demise. china's rejuvenation in this group of speakers context is a joke.

Q: How does Xi get the wedge back in between Europe and the US? A: Donald J. Trump, president, 2024-2028.

After Russia and China have collapsed demographically and economically then maybe .....a possibility for a reformed relationship. But USA may also need a serious shake up.

The war in Ucrania helped mend the wedge between the USA and Europe, but so it did the absence of Trump. If he had won the elections, I doubt the outcome would have been the same.

In spite of his consistent (and necessary) calling out of the so-called American patriot, Kotkin is such an anti-American patriot when it comes to trembling at Putin's preposterous brinksmanship.

Great conversation