Escapism in the US has taken on a very dangerous sophistication...people dig their heels in over "flashy" issues, while all avoiding the daunting challenges (educational mediocrity, national debt, family disintegration, deceitful infowarfare, international cybercrime, evaporation of norms, environmental poisoning).

Made in China via Mexico.... Mexican manufacturing is basically assembly of Chinese-made parts and components into the final product...thus Mexico is just an extension of China's manufacturing supply chain.

The media is currently barraged with a lot of economic data right now. It takes a lot to see beyond the whole ocean of news on focus on what is important, which is that no matter how low stocks go, they always bounce back. I really ignore all the news and keep investing. I recently allocated about $121k to put in the market as we anticipate a crash. Any recommendations?

Keep the rich families out of the governments

Nial proves historians are as bad as economists at prediction - but at least he doesn't use numbers to pretend he's a hard science. If only we could all have jobs where you read old info, make bets that favour those with capital, and don't have to worry about your next paycheck when you continually fail.

"The modern banking system manufactures money out of nothing. The process is perhaps the most astounding piece of sleight of hand that was ever invented." -Sir Josiah Stamp, former Bank president

why are you just hoping for the worst for others (Russia, China) to get away with your own issue? This is a very horrible and dangerous mindset. In order to make yourself better, try to focus on your own issue and grow a long-term vision.

He would suggest rescinding tax cuts for the 1% and corporations as soon as sprouting wings and turning into a fairy.

I think that the world might go into a debt depression and another financial melt down as no government has got the balance right with money in, money out and prioritized spending.

The other major risk is less democracies is what China & Russia are aiming for

Nial is a historian and should stay a historian.

Publicly backed the government in Kiev? Hell, we installed the government in Kiev.

What about our energy sector? If we drill and frack like mad, the economy will recover and the transition will be a little delayed but not stopped. Hence no rescission.

On the geopolitical question the threat from Islamists in Europe and the UK has become much more of a threat since the Hama's raid into Israel and the threat to jews living in London

Niall Ferguson sounds less like an "intellectual" or "Historian" but more as a propagandists.

You can now add North Korea to those aiding Russia in the war

It’s comical . The interviewer is throwing questions at him and Neil is saying things without any data or proof Quack interview LOL

Pompous Toff

My sense of disappointment in discovering that Niall Ferguson has become a stereotypical neocon thinker that would have been perfectly at home in the elder Bush's administration is acute.

I think he is correct in pointing out that the deficits and the huge debt represent a very long term structural economic problem for the USA. The rivalry between the USA and PRC, the problem of being over-dependent on PRC supply chains, and the brushfire wars that are adding to the pressure on the 'productive class' in the USA (that is the people who work and pay taxes). It is also astonishing that the estimates of working age men that are out of the workforce is so high. At times of high inflation and a red hot economy, there shouldnt be 2.7 million working age men not participating, and no doubt sucking on the public teat in various ways: disability payments, medicaid, bank of mom and dad, etc.

Social problems "out of sight, out of mind"? That sounds like the aristocrats in the court of Louis the 16th.

He’s hardly anywhere near the real issues and how we are stumbling towards some terrible decision making ….he’s looking in different directions than most of us. His grasp of geo-politics is very relaxed and unfocused…..

If you keep your foot on the gas, while holding the break pedal down, your going to break something, and it will be an expensive repair.

So, maybe this time the Swamp might actually get drained… good!

Very good analysis except on the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Such a talent to speak for 20 minutes and say nothing more than trivialities

I remene reading. Nialls. Book empire. Years ago very comprehensive and understanding of all parits involved throughouts its history and ive seen recently he has started up a university in america and is apart of alot of geopolitcal discussions i woild say this is a good thing as a man who studied empire and all histroy will have a good example of both the economic and politcal view of what is happenkng and is going to happen.

4 things. WEF, swamp people. Billionaires. Trillionaires.

There is the scientific method and then there is Niall Ferguson

This is a great interview, it got you my sub and a few views. Thank you Barron and Andy.

Dear Professor Ferguson, a brilliant presentation about a real situation the it happening in our universities in CHILE, as you described. We need your visit, Regard. Manuel Carreno.

There’s your longterm optimism: liberty and justice prevailing together with creative innovation through technology.

Really enjoy Ferguson as always. Interestingly, the problem of bringing certain advanced industries like chip production home to me is only concerning if the PR ignites a hot war. Taiwan has already begun deleveraging the risk to their chip production by beginning standing up a $5Bn first stage investment in the US. Expect more of that and quicker in the months ahead!

@7:50 it is quantitative tightening (QT) not quantitative easing (QE)! Correct me!

So nice to learn that "The West" means the United States. Was never sure about that. It's also revealing that, brilliant as this guy supposedly is, this interview became hopelessly outdated within a few days.

If one wanted to move to a country of Africa 🌍, Which would be some of the best ? Why and.. or why not ?

They don't appear to have heard of Dr Jan Harper-Hayes :)

If the Government can inflate the debt away by having the Federal Reserve Bank buy that debt..the phrase being debt monetisation..when the Fed. Buys anything it introduces new currency into the economy and therefore reduces the buying power of all existing currency...

You don't have a guest that is not this BIAS?

I'm a big fan of Niall Ferguson, a very impressive mind with a deep love for the West and he's not afraid to show it

"What could go right (for US)?" ... "well Russia's military could fail?" ... "well China's economic problems could turn into a political collapse?". That's all you need to know about Niall's prognostication (it's sounds like Biden policy, i.e. wishful thinking). If this is the best we can hope for in the West, then you can draw your own conclusions about the outcome (i.e. it's not gonna go well).

Yes, at some point the debt tsunami crests and hits shore. No politicians or governments are prepared to manage this or control it. Some will make it worse. The world will have to manage a debt-leveraged asset price reset. Good luck to us.

Quite comfy looking chairs they are sitting on

Nialle, London has been ruined by it's open boarder. Do you want the same for America.

What is he saying about the Chinese real estate sector. It has two homes per person. Is he suggesting it needs to keep on ripping?

When asked about Globalism, Ferguson's answer was about Globalisation. Are these two different things or are they interchangeable?

Few people pay attention to the fact that the deficit is strongly affected by the ability of the Federal government to tax, and the US Constitution (as amended) limits the government's taxing power, essentially, to the income tax and import-export duties. States are not so limited, which is why property taxes are imposed by US states but not by the Federal government. There is no billionaires' tax, because that would be a tax on assets rather than an income tax or an import-export duty. This is relevant to the Federal budget deficit, because too much income taxation will eventually constrain economic growth. Absent the unlikely event of a Constitutional amendment to expand the Federal government's taxing power, the Federal government must either reduce non-defense spending or find a way to offload non-defense spending to the states (without a differential in per capita state spending causing noticeable population movements to obtain more generous benefits).

Re 2024: To not mention “fortification” is either very naive or dishonest. Take your pick.

When the deficit is greater than the rate of growth of the economy you will eventually be overwhelmed. An 8% deficit compared to a 1.5% average growth rate over the last decade, and the likely average rate going forward, will double your debt to GDP ratio in about 12-13 years. That means that by 2035 or so we will be at 200% debt to GDP ratio. That might create a lot of inflation or perhaps an economic crisis of some sort

Too much time at the arts end of the campus Niall. The U.K. has the 3rd largest AI research investment after US and China.

"Is globalism and liberal democracy in permanent decline?" Linking these together in symbiosis tells you all you need to know about the worldview of the barons of Barrons. Not to mention the complete absence of the illegal migrant crisis in this discussion, as one of the great migrations of human history continues unabated, and the cost to federal and state treasuries (north of $500B/y) for transportation, feeding, clothing, housing, and medical care of an additional 20-30 million U.S. residents.

12:06 so who are the debtors

Very shallow and disappointing. Changed my mind on Ferguson. Sounds like polished High School talk to me.

The US national debt is more than $33 trillion, with 38% of it held by foreign entities. The US also has $38 trillion in unfunded Medicare liabilities and $17 trillion in unfunded Social Security liabilities. The US dollar is the dominant reserve currency, backed by its perceived strength, allowing the US to print unlimited dollars as long as the world maintains trust in it. The US dollar is the backbone of US power, and any actions that undermine confidence in the currency threaten to destabilize its position of dominance. Each unilateral sanction imposed by the US risks damaging the stability and credibility of the US dollar, leading to dire consequences for the nation's power and influence. The US is the only country actively undermining the strength of the US dollar. The freezing of Russia's $300 billion currency reserve by Western governments may lead countries to reconsider investing their funds in US Treasury bonds and finding ways to reduce their use of the US dollar. A significant portion of US dollars is held outside the US, estimated at 60-70% of all US dollars in circulation, due to its status as the dominant reserve currency and wide use in international trade and finance. The one trillion dollar trade deficit of the US is a consequence of being the reserve currency, as a strong dollar makes it difficult for US businesses to export goods and services while simultaneously making it easier for other countries to sell to the US. Countries are expending resources and labor making goods and shipping them to the US in exchange for green pieces of paper. The US is sending back mostly empty containers. The US budget deficit is $1.38 trillion in 2022 which must be paid for by selling more Treasury bonds. The interest on this debt is greater than the military budget. To pay the interest on its debt, the government sells more Treasury bonds, leading to a cycle of increasing debt. The US printing of dollars has been exporting inflation in other countries for decades, but will eventually increase US inflation. Raising interest rates to fight inflation decreases consumer and business spending, increases the trade deficit, and higher interest payments on government debt. Other countries will respond to the US raising of interest rate by raising their interest rate, risking global recession. The Plaza Accord addressed this issue in the past, but it will be challenging to implement such measures now. A well-run country collects taxes to fund essential services and infrastructure. In the US political system, wealthy corporations and individuals can lobby for tax breaks. The shortfall in funding for the US government has reached $33 trillion. Instead of collecting taxes from wealthy corporations and individuals, the government pays interest to them. Banks hold Treasury bonds for their safety, liquidity, regulatory compliance, and potential profitability. When interest rates on Treasury bonds rise sharply, the decrease in bond values reduces liquidity and makes it harder for banks to raise cash quickly. This causes depositors to lose confidence, triggering a bank run. In response to the current bank run, the government is issuing Treasury bonds to raise funds to compensate depositors for any lost funds. There are $19 trillion in deposits in US banks. The estimated unrealized loss on US banks' financial assets is $1.94 trillion, while the total size of their equity is $2.1 trillion. SVB had taken a $15 billion loss, while their capital is $16 billion. Around 2,315 of the 4,800 banks are currently sitting on assets worth less than their liabilities. It's a systemic issue. A similar issue is being played out with risker Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) valued at $12 trillion. The new Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) helps prevent discounted bondholders from taking losses when they have to sell them urgently. The BTFP accepts discounted bonds at face value to be used as pledges for loans to inject more money into the economy. Risking more inflation. It's a Ponzi scheme. Ponzi scheme cannot taper. We reached the can and there is no more road. The US also needs to develop policies to deal with these chronic issues of living in a “democracy”. Economic inequality, inflation, stagnant real wages for the last forty years, costly healthcare, expensive education system, student loan debt totaling $1.7 trillion with an average balance of $38,000, racial inequality, mass incarceration, the militarization of police, deteriorating infrastructure, housing affordability, homelessness, the opioid epidemic, and gun violence.

Why does this conversation feel somewhat awkward.... fotoshoppish.... overstaged...?

Given Trumps alleged conduct. How about Bidens alleged conduct ?

A DOJ that through default judgements oversees a 1.7 trillion dollar judgement (GDP of India) or incarcerates a cartoonist, probably needs some trimming back.

Good analysis.

Niall is an amazingly clear communicator.

"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless." - Thomas Jefferson

I see the prolonged conflict in Ukraine as serving the interests of the USA because this country has the largest stockpile of weapons.

But what he does NOT say is that the Fed is the source of debt. And that debt finance creates slaves, false booms, and real slumps. Slaves, of course, having no rights.

The fact is that WEST is in same situation as was Roman Empire. It is on its last leg!

"An economy with full employment". What? What about all the people living in tents in cities and hooked on oxys in the rust belt where all the jobs got sent overseas? Economists must have some weird bespoke definition of "full employment"

This was taped last September. and the economy does not seem likely to be in "recession" this year 2024 even though the Fed. intended to have a mild recession.

Many feel China's demographics will be a real problem for them, too many old folks!

He still believes the waxeen was efficacious, and that the ukronotzees are the good guys....

first is fascism. second is feeling guilt and not criticizing a former victim now oppressor. third is being pessimistic. four is listening to fake experts like Denial

Better that you look out the window!

Calvin Coolidge was Cool as heck.

Is he pronouncing Nial's name right??

He forgot the fifth: himself.

I didn't get it when he said "This hot economy ..."

Who's trying to give the United States 🇺🇸 recessions or depressions ? Are they enemies ?

What i found very alarming is the difference in the attitude of a foreigner so concerned about america and the american interview seems like feel a safety net. Facts hiding is how this system prevailing. Don't look at the internal cancer, look at the victims luxurious dress as the indication of his health.

The UK had AI deep mind and they let Google buy it.... Smart move

brilliant interview. Both evolved and highly professional.

His belief in the Trumps indictments reminds me that intellectuals are still naive.

He never mentioned the obesity epidemic. America is getting sicker and sicker....think about it people.

On 😇 angels , slaves to Love, and Mercy on the poor !! While staying happily rested, the Tao ☯️ of St Paul, and letting tomorrow worry about tomorrow !! By their fruits you shall know them.. 🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉

Deficits have been heavily increased by Republican (Trump,Bush) tax giveaways to their super wealthy sponsers

Why don’t he mention the possibility of the election of Robert Kennedy Jr as a positive alternative ?

As we get closer to November 2024, Potato Head will be in a nursing home, after breaking both hips in a fall up the stairs. Already a million billion trillion times!

US Q3 growth at 4.9% = USD 35 trillion deficit and counting

Those are symptoms...stupid. The problem is much greater, especially since we don't (want to ) see it!

The USA/collective West is its own worst enemy. It always has been. European citizens today are still suffering from the hegemonial ambitions of some of their leaders, teaming up with Washington DC/the Pentagon. These citizens, usually around 50% of entire populations, suffer directly ("heating or eating"), or indirectly (soaring inflation), these are all "effects," not to be confused with "causes" (see concept of _retrocausality,_ one of the most easilily misused ways to skew a timeline of events). Read Washington chief strategist Brzinzki's "grand plan", or Mackinder before that (1904). The aim was always to drive a rift between Europeans, to avoid greater Eurasian (geographically incl. the ME) co-operation and trade. Today, the people of the Levant (most of whom are Semites, and the followers of Abrahamic religions) have been *"divided and ruled"* over *by outsiders* for centuries. Because it is easier to divide people based on personal differences, than it is to unite them, based on what they have in common. Strategically ambiguous rulers make use of this, for own advantages. In the era of empires, first Rome/Constantinople, then during WW1 the seat of POWER playing these games changed to London/Paris, then after the 1950's as European colonialism's power decreased, the role of "divider" was simply taken over by Washington DC (the entire ME was the "playground" during the Cold War). *Now the intention is simply to avoid unity in the ME, in order to "rule" over the dissent which is classical "divide and rule".* Today, they are ALL tools. Endless wars, constant dissent. Insert "levers" of lies, mistrust... Create favorites: favoratism... Divide and Rule. Oldest trick in the book... *Who wields the POWER?* Who has had (in all historical cases) the GEOGRAPHICAL ADVANTAGE of being able to "reach" all the other little "buck catchers" (tools, and other Roman-era instruments of POWER), but cannot be "reached" itself, because of a geographical-, technological-, organisational-, military-, strategic-, political advantage at any given point of a historical timeline?

The problem is not interest rates. Even with low interest rates government was accelerating the debt. They need to be disincentivized from spending like drunken soldiers, not bring out more champagne at 3 am.

Is Communism ..not enough freedom and capitalism .. not enough control ? What is the state of the people.. and to whom should they be given ? When we have freedom and control just right . ..On a per unit of time basis ... ... Everybody wins 🏆 !! 🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉

I'm surprised he considers Trump winning as a a risk. He seems to spend a lot of time with people who'd welcome it.

Keeps getting things fundamentally wrong does Mr Ferguson. Does no more than parrot the approved narrative, that's the reason.

"Given his conduct on January 6th... " What is that supposed to mean?

Is this the same Ferguson who published those wildly inaccurate death predictions?

Trump is the closest to a Millei, America can get to pull its economy out of the rabbit hole, they are now in.

Any serious analyst would not gloss over the risk associated with the increasing levels of environmental damage unless there is a political reason not to discuss it

I shut it off at 1:36 in. He doesn't understand.

Disclosure needed here. Pro-west commentator

Economy, economy, economy..... yep, the present economic worries are what will bring down Western civilization. Not open borders, rampant communism, Islam, and any number of wars.

There is no “Cold War 2.” It’s too different. Stop it.

Asking someone to predict the future is ridiculous 😂😂😂😂...whos gonna win the EPL Niall........see wot i mean 😂😂😂

Yes, very different. Pollution totally out of copntrol to the pooint where, for instance, New Oroleans may havbe to be abandoned.