America is currently plagued by the hydra-headed evil duo of inflation and recession. The worst part about this recession is that consumers are racking up credit card debt. in April last year alone, credit card debt went up 20% while rates have doubled in a year. Inflation is so high that consumers are literally taking debt for basic life necessities. Collapse has indeed begun.

Right now, things appear odd. The US dollar is becoming less valuable due to inflation, but it is becoming more valuable when compared to other currencies and commodities such as gold and real estate. People are flocking to the dollar because they believe it is more secure. I'm concerned that rising inflation may cause my $420,000 in retirement savings to devalue. We don't have any other places to deposit our money.

I have a 3 fund portfolio consisting of 33% S&P, 33% Total stock, and 33% international. I feel a need to focus on complete growth so I went 100% stocks, but does the SP500 and TSM overlap too much to make sense holding both? However I’ve been in the red for a month now. I don’t know if I should sell everything, sit and just wait but watching my portfolio of $450k dwindle away is such an eye -sore.

Reminded me again why I dont watch CNBC, those idiots kept interrupting and arguing with their guest. That is not just rude, its stupid, just let the man speak and then let everyone think about it.

When you get the GOAT on the show, you do not interrupt people!

Every day we encounter novel challenges that have become the new standard. Although we previously perceived it as a crisis, we now acknowledge it as the new normal and must adapt accordingly. Given the current economic difficulties that the country is experiencing in 2023, how can we enhance our earnings during this period of adjustment? I cannot let my $680,000 savings vanish after putting in so much effort to accumulate them.

The crash in everything, stocks, bonds, cryptos, real estate, will end about the time the Dow/Gold ratio is 1:1 or less. That is, the Dow needs to reach the price of an ounce of gold, before we are near the bottom. That is the historical pattern. Note that this can happen with a collapse in the stock market, OR an increase in the price of gold, or some combination of these two things.

The most important thing that should be on everyone mind currently should be to invest in different sources of income that doesn't depend on the government. Especially with the current economic crisis around the word. This is still a good time to invest in various stocks, Gold, silver and digital currencies.

I wasn't financial free until my 40’s and I’m still in my 40’s, bought my third house already, earn on a monthly through passive income, and got 4 out of 5 goals, just hope it encourages someone's that it doesn’t matter if you don’t have any of them right now, you can start TODAY regardless your age INVEST and change your future! Investing in the financial market is a grand choice I made.

I wish the hosts would shut up and let people say their piece. Each guest should have a clear, concise, declarative statement to make when they first open their mouth. Write it down and read it. Only then should the talkers start drawing out and steering the narrative.

I am aware market trends and economic indicators can influence the performance of different investment options, but I've been reading news about people who were still able to make large profits of up to $580k during this crash...... what is the most effective strategy at this time?

As usual.. Joe shared his wisdom, interrupting guest and pushing aside what he said..

During a recession, many stocks and assets may be undervalued. I believe now is an ideal time to capitalize on the market for long-term gains, but it wouldn't hurt to know how to make short-term profit. I've heard of investors making over $400k profit in this current sinking market, and I'm looking for ideas on how to earn similar profits.

He is correct, no pain, no gain, no pain, no heal, no way around it..😮

A number of the most eminent market experts have been expressing their views on the severity of the impending economic downturn and the extent to which equities might plummet. This is because the economy is heading towards a recession and inflation is persistently above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. As I'm aiming to create a portfolio worth no less than $850,000 before I turn 65, I would appreciate any advice on potential investments

Nassim has predicted 17 of the last 5 black swan events

The Turkish Baklava Market - No risk, no crisis , 100 percent satisfaction.

Would have been a good interview without the host interrupting the guest.

AI related stocks are hyped up too much. Agree.

People are affected by inflation far more quickly than they are by a stock or property market crisis because it directly impacts their standard of living. The current level of negative market sentiment is not surprising. To survive in this economy, we urgently need assistance. The ETF/Equity market continues to fluctuate.

The big problem is America is drowning in corporate and national debt. Let's just keep increasing the debt ceiling and kick the can down the road😢

Thank you,Nicholas Nassim. I will have bad sleep for a while now! ;-) ....however it's llikely true: The risk is too much liquidity in the market for too long now and too much real estate speculation again after 2008. Seems at least it is time for that market to go on a long diet....and for AI: Would you sell Microsoft now? Puuuuuuh, difficult. P.S. Please guys, do not interrupt such a great guest!

I really liked his book. So detailed yet approachable.

Dude these fake accounts leaving comments about their 400k accounts and "I'm looking for a financial advisor"... Its really getting out of hand

SKIN IN THE GAME - great book from him!

Thank you. Finally someone says, "the emperor has no clothes".

Taleb's criticism of MMT is an attack on a straw man. MMT does not propose that there is no limit to the amount of money that can be printed. MMT stipulates that the limit on the money supply is dictated by inflation. When inflation rises taxes have to be raised so that money supply is reduced. In this respect there is no difference between MMT and conventional monetary theory.

The long era of low interest rates fueled by globalization is over. A lot of folks here commenting don't understand the economics of pricing. Pricing is set when the item changes owners. The cost of capital has gone way up, will not be coming down and this will be reflected in the markets. I am not so sure about US real estate tanking badly because of our demographics. I would like to know how much US residential real estate is owned by investors in foreign countries that are demographically challenged. I remember when Japan's financial system crashed in 1989. Real estate tumbled here in the US for 5 solid years. China is about to take a really hard hit as well as Europe and both have lousy demographics. Our millennial generation are home buyers currently pressuring the real estate market due to the size of their population cohort. Lots of nuance...

what was the last sentence

Avoid Real estate is that reference to commercial or residential or both?

I used to respect Taleb. He'd rather be right than make money. As of the last few years he appears to be neither right nor making money.

That last comment.. "if you're a professional, make sure you're not naked long [on] stocks" after telling individuals to avoid AI and real estate has me the most concerned because as an individual my non-stock investments are real estate. What's the vehicle then? Bonds? Go liquid until you can buy? Im guessing a "Yes and" strategy

The stock market bull run is finished, but I'm unsure about how soon things will become worse, whether stocks will immediately rebound, continue to slide, or swing in a small range for a few weeks. It's imperative that I build my $250k reserve.

I’m reading his book fooled by randomness right now! Hilarious thing is that he makes fun of journalists and TV personalities like these throughout the entire book. But I guess he’s humble enough to say that he’s not any better

1968 Dow Jones was a wholesome 620! $ was convertible into gold. Four decades prior homes were selling for 3- 4 tousand dollars. Prices were going down for older homes as they were considered used a concept on cars. Half a century later everything turned out elevated in order to make us all feel a success. We all sit at cassino table with an ever and ever higher stakes. Dealer won't let us quit as it is de-facto our bank.

I can't predict the market wish I could but I am proud to say I finally bought the Black Swan a month or two ago. Nicholas Nassim Taleb is one of the most important market people we have.

If u drive through my city everything looks pretty good ...when u start to look at all the commercial developments closely and strip malls you see a lot of empty store fronts with no businesses in them paying rent. Even the new mega developments the city's have been building and planning are having a hard time finding renters and keeping a high occupancy.

The biggest problem is the generation of traders who have no experience with a normal interest rate environment. Everything is overvalued just like the 1920s.

MMT was a mischaracterization of the aggregate demand. Zero percent interest rates were ok, only as long as the aggregate supply complied for an equilibrium to allow lower price changes (inflation.) Now that the demographics, a war that cut off Russia from the world (or at least US dollar denominated trade), and political mistakes of lower taxes and stringent SEC environment has resulted in intergenerational wealth transfer (and resulting concentration of wealth) and too much class stratification that have now caused a spike in inflation (of which is now cooling per current Fed policy.) The problem is more demographic and policy driven than just printing the money for the sake of the demand at the time. MMT is not to blame for the current inflation cycle.

"The risk is in front of us" How can risk be in the past?

People forget that Lehman Brothers peaked from January to March 2007, in less than a year it lost 50% of its value and in less than two it disappeared, when a lot of colossus of the financial system are dancing together the dance of death there is no guarantee that they will be taken into account in time before seeing the black swan. The most absurd greed leads to crises, just look around you, what are the people focused on?

Taleb is like Theory: "the problem is this and this and this..." What to do then: "dont know"

Everything is great until the day "You have to pay the piper" The next great reset will happen one day. When the Mother Of All Bubbles burst it will get really ugly. No one knows when and what will make it burst.

People need to diversify into alternative assets having negative or neutral correlations with traditional assets e.g. stocks, bonds, warrants, ETFs etc. That's most effective way to protect your portfolio and wealth from tail risks that Dr. Nassim Taleb is talking about here.

He said Real Estate but not which type. Office is being, and will be crushed. Single family house prices will RISE. 80% of the homes in America have NO mortgage, or a rate between 3% - 4%. Additionally, supply of new homes is the lowest on record.

I’m definitely interested to see how this recession will turn out considering so many companies prepared for the worst. It’s expected to still be better than 08’ just how much???

Didn't this conversation take place many months ago? Why is this clip being presented/ uploaded on 30-JUN-2023 as if this happened yesterday?

The USA’s fiscal “deficit” is actually private sector income (double entry accounting). By the same token, a fiscal surplus is actually a private sector deficit (a loss of income for individuals and private companies), and who would wish to be poorer? The money for fiscal spending was not borrowed and is thus not owed. Even treasuries are mere savings vehicles, honored by the US Treasury, and the money to pay them comes from the same place as fiscal spending: thin air. If “the debt” was real, the ‘debt ceiling’ couldn’t be moved at will (except it has, 70+ times), nor has the USA ever reneged on a treasury security, and cannot renege *involuntarily* (key word) Rate hikes cause inflation as well as unemployment, since it makes money more expensive, and 95% of the money supply is bank credit. The decrease in the money supply caused by higher rates (which is deflationary) is massively off-set with the higher price setting of money (which is what an interest rate hike is). Looking at historical data, when overlapping inflation with rate hikes, you'll see that rate hikes precede inflation the overwhelming majority of the time, going back to the 1930s.

isnt this the bot that predicted bitcoin would be under 3k by now?

Raising interest rates does not solve oligopolistic price fixing by specific industry leaders out to achieve economic gouging and financial drilling of the consumer - Economics 101.

Interest rates are only PART of the problem. Zero percent interest rates allowed assets to falsely appreciate. What I mean by "falsely" is that there was no interest rate ceiling to keep pressure on appreciation that wages/incomes would ultimately not support. In effect, we pulled future asset values that were yrs and yrs if not decades down the road into today's economy and thus the mismatch to incomes/cost. It also allowed consumer debt to rise to nearly 1 trillion! It also allowed cheap market speculation. Add to that the EGREGIOUS cost of higher education/student debt, and you have an entire millennial generation of people that are in massive debt. This is a recipe for disaster. He is exactly spot on when he says it needs to crash because that is the only way it comes back into balance......so the Ivey league Washington types and bankers take us there again.

Housing market is going to pop. Too much debt. Also student loans are next. 😎

really good interview

The market is blinded by euphoria. Wake up call in coming.

A lot of college students (like me) study some economic theory in the classroom. The problem is most professional 'Economists' are really economic 'alchemists'; they are forever meddling with the numbers to try & somehow beat reality. Things like debt, money, finance, trade, etc have been well defined for thousands of years & operate in very well defined ways. The problem now is the financial 'party' is winding up (for now), and financial 'reality' is taking over again. The next few years will sort out the financial 'fantasists' from the financial realists.

Great question on what to do now?

AI/Tech and Real Estate, two of the most interest rate sensitive sectors, are somehow holding up the markets with two more hikes planned. Don't say he didn't warn you.

Selling the future funding in real estate I saw in action in Camas, WA in 2020. It was scary to see. Literal billboards up on new development sites advertising it. “It may seem like this property is over valued, but you will also be able to resell it at a more exorbitant price. “

I believe these people are mistaking Keynesian theory with MMT. MMT says you can print until you have inflation, that’s it, and they are right.

they forgot student loan debt.

Debt. War. Energy. De-Dollarization dynamics. Ending of world trading distribution system in place since WW2 with more regional trading ahead. Cost of raw materials, transportation, available food. Global warming-natural disasters. Aging infrastructures accross western Capitalist countries. Again populations & rapidly changing demographics around the globe. Think we're in for a cascading set of possible failures-crisis that will all act to catalize & impact accross sectors, accross geographies and accross politcal systems and in financial models in N. America, Europe, Middle East, Central Asia, China & East Asia as well as Anzac region. Some treacherous regional-global waters ahead on the sruface & DEEP down cracks in foundations of systems acrross the globe. Thanx all. Best, Milan

It's Nassim Nicholas NOT Nicholas Nassim. If you're going to have a highly esteemed guest on your TV show, at least get his name right.

I thought the "Black Swan" was a movie with Natalie Portman....kids..????

Stop interrupting this wise man.

MMT does make sense. MMT doesn't say that there is no limiting factor. It just ain't what the public thinks it is. The point is that it's not so much a matter of how much money US prints, but what it sirens that money on. If it's too inflate the stick market and the real estate market, then that's bad. And if it's didn't on bridges, education and healthcare, then the return on investment in society will allow debt to be repaid.

Be very careful once younstart hearing people talk about new eras. Rates could just as easily be cut quickly if the economy enters a downturn.

The strength of the dollar is determined by demand, which is declining globally. This is basic logic and a simple fact. It's mind boggling how simple Americans look at things. People live in a bubble by design.

Nassim is the GOAT

😀Haven't heard a coherent thought from this guy ever

According to our sources, he's net worth is negative nowadays.

100% agree stocks, real estate, start ups all overvalued

You making money like insane... Hope someday I will be like you)

You can always keep printing money... untill its worthless.

Anybody else seen a noticeable uptick in police giving speeding tickets over the past few weeks?

Love the book!

Nassim is about to melt faces

Max was here

Nassim looks like a younger Mick Fleetwood!

We will continue to move from crisis to crisis because no one in positions of power can think long term. It's all instant gratification and kicking the can down the road. Now we've run out of road.

You can make a case for MMT? We got up to 9%+ inflation. It failed. Also, economic consequences take time to happen. The real estate market peaked in 2006. At that time it was already apparent ( to astute investors like Paulson and Burry) that the damage had been done and there would be a reckoning. That reckoning took 2 years to happen. We have only seen the beginning - high inflation, then then there will be the eventual recession.

Smart guy… but can anyone “predict” the markets!?

Let the man speak FFS

He is alive!

Investors can’t predict the future, bearish periods automatically give way for a new set of stocks to buy and watch while setting the stage for a new profitable uptrend. I have come across articles of people that grossed profits up to $250k during this crash, what are the best stocks to put on a watch list or buy at the moment?

Amen.

This guy used to be great to listen to

There are some things that everyone should be aware of by now. Working with a financial professional could truly help you get ready for life. Since I was actively cashing out from my portfolio and finally made over 370k just in the first quarter while everyone else was whining about the downturn, I'm delighted I was able to contact my coach Rodger Michael Karl early this year...

The idea that you want to avoid investments in AI is crazy. If your company isn’t taking advantage of AI, your company won’t be around for long.

It's not IF it's WHEN that will happen

4:26 be careful buddy

they keep interrupting him

Taleb is doing the one thing he bellyaches about, making predictions. Couldn't resist pontificating.

All countries have dramatically increased debt, the United States is just the best of a ugly looking lot. The Dollar relative to other currencies isn’t going reflect the problem….asset valuations are the key.

MMT depends methodologically on an assumption that the money printed is then invested by the government productively. That's the core problem whatever ideological bent one has.

A generation who don't know what interest rates mean. Several generations who don't know what reality means. The chasm that awaits these people...

Yet, as September 2023 arrives, the majority of the financial community is telling us we're going to get away with the past 15 years. We'll find out soon enough who is right.

When is recession coming man ? I am sitting on cash since Q4 2022, I hope it will come soon and I can go all out blitzkrig

These guys always say that Doom is near. Once in twenty years they will be right. Live in the now. Always be ready for potential down turns.

Nassim Taleb is the philosopher of this century!

Talk about going against the grain!