Something to keep in mind: Milankovich cycles don't directly cause ice ages or warming periods, they influence feedback cycles of heating and cooling. It's a slow, subtle process and it doesn't take much to be disturbed.

There's a question no one seems to address: Yes, we are putting extra CO2 into the atmosphere, and the planet-warming effects of CO2 are well-documented, but is it the case that, as the Holocene ends, the changes of the Earth's tilt, precession, and eccentricity (as described by the Milankovitch cycles) completely overwhelms all the inadvertent efforts by humans to keep the planet warm? Anthropomorphic global-warming suggests the next glacial period has been put on hold indefinitely because of human activity. That certainly could be true - and a lot of scientists think it is true. You probably can't even get a grant to study climate change if you don't already think that global-warming is mostly caused by human activity. But two other outcomes are also possible: The first is that humans are adding just enough greenhouse gas to delay the next round of glaciation. The second is that glaciation is inevitable, and the amount of greenhouse gases added over the last 10,000 years is negligible with respect to the overwhelming cooling that will happen as the Holocene period ends. So there are three possible outcomes - and from what I've read, more open studies are needed to see which path we're really on. Unfortunately, the way science currently works, there is no funding to look into these alternative outcomes - which, of course, leaves scientists open to being completely surprised when things don't go the way they are predicting.

I've heard of these cycles before but didn't know the names. The way you explain things even my grandma can understand. Thanx

Thanks, Exactly what I was looking for! :D I laughed when you zoomed in to where we are now LOL

I studied Ice Ages as part of my batchelors degree. The Sun also has cycles and the Sun cycle periodically coincides with increases in volcanism. Volcanoes produce particles that ascend to the upper atmosphere and it is this that creates a lower temperature because the Sun is blotted out. All Ice Ages are preceded by increased volcanism. The amount of CO2 is approximately 0.0391 parts per million. This is measured by the percentage present in water vapour.

Haha as soon as I watched the previous video I wondered where we're at in the cycle, and then I see this video, nice!

Maybe I missed it, did the "little ice age" make it into that data set?

We ARE in a mild ice age right now, the poles do have ice where they don't in warmer periods.

This is what i expect when discussing the topic of Climate Change - A well built analysis devoid of any personal preference, agenda and most importantly no Ableism. Its really sad how the media has politicized Climate Change and reduced it merely to preference of Political Parties.

have you noticed that they don’t bring up Milankovitch cycles when they’re talking about magnetic pole reversal,what effect the wobble might have on the inner liquids of the planet

The first Was great thanks for a follow up

Thank you for great videos ! 👌

Would be fascinating to understand the interaction of this theory with John L Casey’s Relational Cycle theory on the bicentennial cycle of sun activity’s influence on earth

Thank you for a very informative video!

Interesting and relevant analysis. Many thanks.

Very educational and interesting mate,, well enjoyed

I get it! I also get reduction of greenhouse gases devices.... but why are we not super focused on re forestations?

So, what you're saying is that not only has farming and industry provided us with food and shelter, it's also prevented an ice age that would have killed millions through famine.

So Earth became just warm enough to enable us to successfully farm and the positive feedback caused by farming kept us just warm enough to evade going back into iceage hell. I think we're still quite far away from the Earth being a maximum habitable and comfortable place overall so it's refreshing to know that we're currently in a low period on the Milankovitch cycle and should see warmer times ahead in the distant future.

Why was the co2 graph only taken back 10,000 years shouldn't it have been extended back as far as the milankovitch graph for a more balanced comparison over such a long period

wow thank you so much, your explaination is beyond amazing❤️

We are in a mild ice age! Theres ice on the poles

Thank you for answering a long burning question I've had

Thank you for that clarification about greenhouse gasses vs the M cycles.

Very compact yet very informative video. God bless. Stay safe and healthy.

We are still in an Ice Age. It's just that we are in an interglacial period of the current Ice Age.

0:20 which would be the "worst case scenario" for a severe ice age? Lowest Tilt, highest eccentricity and precession tilted away from sun in summer - all combined? Is it possible?

Thanks for your great videos

It's been cooling slowly since just after exiting the last glaciation within this ice age. Both the medieval and roman warm periods were warmer than it is today. The coldest time since being somewhat recent during the little ice age. The current warming is not particularly fast or warm and we should hope our effects are as strong as the politicians claim. Why? Because cold is much harder to adapt to and is in our future.

Can you do a video of the evolution of humans and show where in the milankovitch cycle points of note are? Early migration, introduction of neanderthals/denisovans, Atlantis sinking (or at least when it's written abkut) etc. Is a timeline of Earth in general too much to ask? Like pangea splitting and stuff?

If we are now in the middle of the cycle range, the next big thing could be an ice age? Is there any predictive value in the Milankovitch cycles? Or are they just a description of the past?

You’re a GOAT for still answering on a 2 year old video

4:02 “This released a lot of CO2” *First car you see is a Tesla*

where did you get your interglacial graph from?

Are we delaying a ice age from starting naturally from earths cycles? What about outside forces? Any inclinations of universal events linked or know to happen along the same time line?

Question: what do the ice core samples say about CO2 levels in previous warm and cooling cycles? Like the at begining of the last great Ice Age?

So what happens when this is combined with the solar cycle GSM....?

Can you illustrate how a climate model is normally built?

Is there data on correlation or causality between the Milankovitch cycles and the AMOC?

Excellent video, but isn't it strange how the conclusion can be negative rather than positive. It just shows how, if graph scales are manipulated sufficiently, you can alter the conclusions with simply changing the scales on axes. I agree with everything in the first 90% of the video and strongly disagree with the last 10%.

More videos please!

Great video! Great explanation! Great graphics! Wonder why we never learnt about the Milankovitch cycles in our school geography! Please also make a video on how the situation on earth was (life forms, species, civilizations, etc) during the last ice age.

The underlying heat-adjustment effect works like this: --------- "GREENHOUSE EFFECT", TRYING TO WARM IF THE QUANTITY INCREASES - The "greenhouse effect" in Earth's troposphere operates like this: Some of the "LWR" aka "infrared" radiation heading up gets absorbed into cloud above instead of going to space so that's the "heat trapping" effect of a cloud. The top portion of the cloud radiates up some of the LWR radiation that's manufactured inside the cloud but it's less amount than the LWR that was absorbed into the bottom of the cloud because the cloud top is colder than below the cloud and colder things radiate less than warmer things. That is PRECISELY the "greenhouse effect" in Earth's troposphere. It's the "greenhouse effect" of liquid "water" and solid "ice" in that example. You can see that "greenhouse effect" of liquid "water" and solid "ice" for all the various places on Earth from CERES satellite instrument at ukposts.info/have/v-deo/o3Viinh6q254rZc.html at 7:50. It's the pink one labelled "Longwave....26.2 w / m**2" so cloud globally has a "greenhouse effect" of 26.2 w / m**2. - Solids in the troposphere have the exact same effect as the "cloud greenhouse effect" above for the exact same reason. - Infrared-active gases in the troposphere (H2O gas, CO2, CH4, N2O, O3, CFCs) have the exact same effect as the "cloud greenhouse effect" above for the exact same reason. Non infrared-active gases in the troposphere (N2, O2, Ar) have no "greenhouse effect" because their molecule is too simple to get the vibrational energy. The "greenhouse effect" really is that simple, and it's utterly 100% certain. --------- SUNSHINE REFLECTION EFFECT, TRYING TO COOL IF THE QUANTITY INCREASES - Clouds (liquid "water" and solid "ice") absorb & reflect some sunlight and the "reflect" part has an attempt-to-cool effect, which has nothing whatsoever to do with the "greenhouse effect". You can see that "sunlight reflection attempt-to-cool effect" of liquid "water" and solid "ice" for all the various places on Earth from CERES satellite instrument at ukposts.info/have/v-deo/o3Viinh6q254rZc.html at 7:50. It's the blue one labelled "Shortwave....-47.3 w / m**2" so cloud globally has a sunshine reflection effect of 47.3 w / m**2. - Solids in the troposphere absorb & reflect some sunlight and the "reflect" part has an attempt-to-cool effect, which has nothing whatsoever to do with the "greenhouse effect". - Infrared-active gases in the troposphere (H2O gas, CO2, CH4, N2O, O3, CFCs) do not absorb or reflect any sunlight (minor note: except a tiny portion in the high-frequency ultraviolet where O2 & O3 has absorbed most of it already in the stratosphere above the troposphere). --------- NET EFFECT OF THE 2 ENTIRELY-DIFFERENT EFFECTS DESCRIBED ABOVE - The net result of the 2 entirely-different "cloud" effects is that clouds have a net cooling effect of 21.1 w / m**2 as seen in the blue-hues pictorial at left on screen at either of my 2 GooglesTubes links above. - The net result for solids in the troposphere is a net cooling effect because the change in this effect by humans is the "global dimming" atmospheric aerosols air pollution effect and that's a cooling effect (separate from its cloud change effect). - The net result for infrared-active gases in the troposphere (H2O gas, CO2, CH4, N2O, O3, CFCs) is a warming effect because their 2nd effect above is negligible, essentially zero.

awesome video! Thank you!

Can the sun cycles have an impact on earths climate? From what I have read so far is yes.

Why was the eemian interglacial far warmer than our interglacial yet co2 was much lower during the eemian? And sea level was around 6 metres higher across the planet, scary stuff!

What caused the Last Glacial Maximum? High eccentricity coupled with north hemisphere away from the sun in the summer?

Just awesome

So where does cement an asphalt fit into this. I’ve heard that these materials retain heat for a longer period than just plain old dirt, meaning they don’t really cool much at night ... I read It’s why cities stay hot and just keep getting hotter and hotter in the summer months. I would think this contributes to hotter summers and have little effect in winters. Does this effect the overall global temperature? Or an I misinformed ?

You explained it really well in the simplest possible way, thanks!

Can you do a video on the other, shorter term cycles, like the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Solar Minima?

This channel deserves the highest praise IMO. All of it’s videos that I’ve seen r grade A+. The narration and imagery makes it so easy to quickly gain an understanding. At the end of this video u mentioned greenhouse gasses being a factor and I’m quite curious what ur take is on the role nuclear testing plays in the grand scheme of climate change. There have been more than two thousand documented manmade nuclear explosions since 1945. What r the effects they have and/or will have on earths ozone layer and climate?

Great video! thanks a lot and keep it up

Your video completely omits the fact, that the earth is greening. Now large parts of the Sahara are greening as well, because of co2.

Question is do we all want to freeze and starve due to an ice age (plants and food not growing) or do we want to be warm and plenty of food and not be in an ice age?

How did you make these animations? Very well done.

Well. It's a really good thing that the Earth has a reboot function then huh? Once so much of the fresh water in the poles melts into the oceans, it will saturate the oceanic currents which bring hot water from the equator to the north. With the northern hemisphere getting colder and colder the ice sheets will have a massive resurgence, and we'll pretty much be screwed... Hope it's not for awhile...

Great stuff! Something else I don't see being addressed is the weakening magnetic fields and the movement of the earths field possibly the precursor to a flip in the field itself. So if the field itself is what shields the earth from the suns radiation... why is that not a factor in climate? If it's changing shouldn't it have an effect?

So would that mean that in the future if this still is the same it would wormer if it went back like 9000

When the axis tilt shifts to the opposite angle how does that mean it's warmer or colder on the earth? Doesn't that just replicate the same as when we have summer and winter solstice in the northern hem its the opposite in the southern hem?

What about all the volcanism with the Milankovitch cycles!!

The position of earth within the Milankovitch cycles wil have an effect when also an Grand Solar Minimum and a Geomagnetic Excursion Event takes place , it seems very likely that this takes place right now .

Absolutely Awesome News

Is there a reason why you talk about summer without specifying if it's in the northern hemisphere or southern? Or is it just because you are from that region?

As per definition, "Ice Age" is a period in which there are ice sheets at the Poles. As per this definition, the current ice age we are living in start around 34 Million Years ago when the Antarctican tectonic plate moved on top of the South Pole. This current Ice Age is called the 'Late Cenozoic Ice Age'. But many scientists say that since the Arctic ice sheets formed around 2.5 Million years ago, so the current ice age began at that time, and should be called 'Quaternary Ice Age'. There have been at least five major ice ages in the Earth's history (the Huronian, Cryogenian, Andean-Saharan, late Paleozoic, and the latest Quaternary Ice Age). During each Ice Age, there are Glacial Periods and Inter Glacial Periods which are dictated as per Milankovitch Cycles (mainly). Currently we are in an Inter Glacial Period known as the 'Holocene' which began around 11700 years ago. Predicted changes in orbital forcing suggest that the next glacial period would begin at least 50,000 years from now, due to the Milankovitch cycles. Though, increased greenhouse gases are estimated to potentially outweigh the orbital forcing of the Milankovitch cycles for hundreds of thousand of years. So, the next "ice age" in laymen terms or the next glacial period in scientific terms will not begin for the next hundreds of thousands of years even accounting for Milankovitch cycles because of human release of CO2 and Methane in the atmosphere. It is estimated that if the current release of CO2 continues for a hundred more years, then the global temperature will rise around 6 to 7 degrees Celsius and become similar to the global temperature during the time of the Dinosaurs, at which point the North Pole would be completely ice free, and the Antarctic ice sheets would be collapsing with devastating effects on human civilization.

The 2010 magnitude-8.8 Chile earthquake shortened the day by about 1.26 µs and shifted earth's figure axis by about 8 cm. And the 2004 magnitude-9.2 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake moved the figure axis by about 7 cm. We will have another ice age if this happens again.

Awesome 👍

How do we explain that milankovich cycles were a factor when co2 was higher (which was almost always the case in history), if it is disturbed by relatively low amounts of CO2 now?

Even today only about 12% of the earths surface is used for agriculture and much of that was never forest, it was prairie grass. Before the discovery of iron it would be pretty difficult to deforest what wasn't already deforested. I would really like to see your data on deforestation by human activity over the 9000 years you are referring to. Even 5000 years ago the human population has been estimated at only 14 million. Deforestation by humans increased greatly in the last 300 years or so but you have a lot of explaining to do for the other 8700 years. The main thing to keep in mind is that more than two thirds of the earth is covered in water and it's the photo synthetic bacteria and many other micro organisms in the vast oceans and lakes that generate and exchange the great majority of atmospheric gases. So any additional CO2 generated as you say from conversion of forest to agriculture would face the vast oceans to absorb and convert it. Being land animals and very egocentric ones at that, we like to think it's the beautiful forests on land that are the "lungs of the earth" but in truth it's the slimy bacteria and fungi that are doing the majority of the work generating most of the atmospheric oxygen, virtually all of the nitrogen and reducing most of the CO2 down to just a few hundred parts per million.

So you’re saying CO2 is a good thing? And the medieval warm period?

Whilst we are all aware that some gases make a small difference to the amount of energy able to leave our planet, it never ceases to amaze me that there is never any talk of water vapour as a “ greenhouse gas” it is the most relevant insulator. Yet nobody suggested that we get rid of water🤷🏼‍♂️🤷🏼‍♂️

Is there any evidence that there was sufficient amounts of land under cultivation/deforestation until recently that would have led to the purported levels of greenhouse gas being released?

I dont want to see the opposite of ice ige if we are in ice ige right now😑

Interesting, so humans saved themselves from an Ice Age without even knowing it. We must be thankful to our forefathers!

How can a trace gas with one molecule of other 2500 in the air is able to hold us warm 🥵 is it only a false statics trick??

So when did the Milankovich cycle we are in begin? And what about the Holocene Epoch that also has been keeping us warmer for the last 12,000 years?

There may be three separate cycles. 1.Milanvokitch orbital. 2. Oceanic Thermohaline circulation. 3. Sun spots. Wouldn't it be insightful if people had a comprehensive image? Could you make a video that examined the relationship between these three cycles?

What happens when the cycle takes us back to a warm cycle and we are still farming? Even if we made all other practices carbon neutral farming alone according to how this info is presented here will fry us all… Alternately what if we counter the carbon situation and we enter a full ice age?

is there any scientific speculation further? It almost seems as though C02 rise could be good if controlled

Temps are getting cooler, ocean circulation is slowing. Ice depth at the poles are building quite handsomely... approaching a "tipping point "????

Cherry-picked that time frame nicely... curiously no mention of the epochs in history when the CO2 levels were many, many times current levels, but also the most rampant exploding-with-life-forms, and not much warmer. Or how those variations in CO2/methane (negligible effect that methane has, due to its reactivity) may or may not correlate or correspond with the Milankovitch cycles. How can you ascribe the changes to human activity when there are known human-less periods (without farming and petroleum-use) in the past eras that had more extreme amounts of what you claim are causing the climate change (or lack of it, since you say we should be in a 'mild ice-age' whatever that really means?)

Plants (agriculture) also transforms CO2 in O2. In fact, grass transforms way more co2 in o2 than trees per square foot. It shouldn't make a difference

At the beginning of the video, you manetioned three cycles combining... What's the third?

Excellent

Could trees and plants be growing larger with more CO2 in the atmosphere? Kind of like how dinosaurs were huge because there was more O2 in the atmosphere?

Ok. The warm period before the last Ice Age lasted 12,000-15,000 years. Then the last Ice Age which lasted 100,000 years (the last 4 have lasted 100,000y each) Then it got warm again 11,700 bc with temps being what they are today by 9,700 bc.. So it's been warm for about 12,000 years. That's the same time it was warm the last time before a Ice Age hit... we are due anytime for another Ice Age. In fact all the last 4 interglacial warm periods are a blip on the chart compared to all the long 100,000 y Ice Ages. In other words when earth gets warm it's only for a very short time 12-15k y.But the Ice ages last 100,000 y. So it's been warm for that blip already....

Keep it just astromical...how do you explain Little Ice Age or the Medieval warm period?

Did you include the Younger Dryas event

This is a great series. Stumbled across it and now have my kids watching too. Thanks for the information and learning.

:Insert "Scientists Say" Comment Here

That is correct. But should we expect entering on an Ice Age anyway, despite being delaying it, or Humans will be able to change those cycles? Thank you.

Chapter and verse from Plows Plagues and Petroleum by Ruddiman. An interesting aside. When the black death occurred and the demise of the population of the Americas (from European Diseases) the forests recovered and we just slid into the next glacial period. Then it was reversed by our increased output of green house gasses. This can be seen up around Baffin Island.

This needs to be taught along with all the usual climate stuff. This makes global warming far more dire if we are supposed to be in a cooling period.

younger dryas ----- explain please

It was my understanding we are in a ice age and what about the magnetic pole reversal?

I liked him in "Con Air" the best.

I think I prefer slightly warm vs under a few hundred meters of ice... my house is where the last ice sheet ended more or less....

Sounds like we prevented new ice age (although tiny one). I guess the real öroblem is, can we cool it down before next really warm cycle comes.

How could C02 be responsible for high temperature, if the percentage in the atmosphere is equal to 0.04%?

When waterwiper is a much heavier greenhouse then co2 what is the result? More trees - more waterwiper more warming?