What Went Wrong With Political Polling In 2020?

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CNBC

CNBC

День тому

A lot things went wrong in 2020. And presidential polls were no exception. Joe Biden was supposed to win the 2020 presidential by eight points, according to the polls, which were wrong. He won by five points. He was supposed to win Wisconsin by 10 points. Instead, Biden eked out a victory there with less than 1 percent of the vote between him and incumbent President Donald Trump. The polls were very wrong in Wisconsin. The polls also had Biden winning Florida. And North Carolina. Here’s why the polls ended up missing the mark in 2020, and what’s being done about it.
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What Went Wrong With Political Polling In 2020?

КОМЕНТАРІ: 196
@djp1234
@djp1234 3 роки тому
No one responds because we're constantly bombarded by spam and scams 24/7. It's impossible to tell what's real and what's scammers trying to steal your information.
@coolferds06
@coolferds06 3 роки тому
CNN, CNBC, ABC, and greedy Google, Facebook, Twitter. All are manipulating people's minds. China looks like a laughing Hyena.
@RonVillejoConsulting
@RonVillejoConsulting 3 роки тому
Exactly. Also, there are way too many surveys and questionnaires asking to rate this or that! e.g. Amazon and Uber constantly ask for feedback.
@diealone9887
@diealone9887 3 роки тому
I'm surprised this didn't come up in the video
@kbanghart
@kbanghart 2 роки тому
@@coolferds06 and of course "truth social" LOL
@Aiyahhh
@Aiyahhh 3 роки тому
Who has times these days to answer a poll? I dont answer calls from numbers I dont know and wont spend time answering polls...
@kbanghart
@kbanghart 2 роки тому
I don't really like them either, but remember there's lots of different people out there. There ARE some people who don't mind them, actually enjoy taking them. I myself have answered maybe one poll over the past year, possibly two can't remember now, I mean one that I actually gave decent answers on.
@heristyono4755
@heristyono4755 3 роки тому
What Went Wrong With Political Polling In 2020? 'Polling'
@kbanghart
@kbanghart 2 роки тому
Yes, this is obvious, but why did it go wrong?
@saulgoodman2018
@saulgoodman2018 3 роки тому
Polls are only right in the people that answer. If you only ask 10.000 people. These numbers do not equate for the whole country.
@kbanghart
@kbanghart 2 роки тому
But it's not just that, the results for the 2020 election were considerably less accurate then 2016 and other years. The simple sizes were about the same. So that means people have simply been lying more.
@Tiosh
@Tiosh 3 роки тому
Why even having polling to begin with? The final actual vote is the one that truly matters.
@devt8558
@devt8558 3 роки тому
They try to give us a good idea of how the election is going to go. Problem is, in these last elections, the polls have been off...
@jackolantern6719
@jackolantern6719 3 роки тому
@@devt8558 like *seriously off* . Trump was supposed to have (at best) 35% to 40% nationwide (according to multiple polls) Biden was supposed to have (at best) 55% to 60% nationwide (according to multiple polls) Trump not only achieved 40%... *he went past it* and manged to get 7% more than it was projected for him Biden on the other hand *underperformed* his polls and fell short by about 4% ....
@kbanghart
@kbanghart 2 роки тому
@@jackolantern6719 but it wasn't across the board, some states were very close, others like Wisconsin were way off
@ShaudaySmith
@ShaudaySmith 3 роки тому
This year was a travesty of phone, email and text bombardments.
@kbanghart
@kbanghart 2 роки тому
And? Are you saying that because we got so many, that people decided to lie on them?
@NovelNovelist
@NovelNovelist 3 роки тому
...Oh really, we can't necessarily use the polls to predict the election results? Sure that's fine. It's not like they only have one job.
@compactcow
@compactcow 3 роки тому
Then don't hire em. 🤣
@kbanghart
@kbanghart 2 роки тому
Well, imagine you have just one job, but that job consists of trying to find out what people are telling you and they're literally lying to you. So how do you do that one job? You know, the old saying for computers... GIGO.. garbage in, garbage out.
@priyanshgautam9971
@priyanshgautam9971 3 роки тому
Lol why care about polls just Vote,Watch and wait till *election week* and you will know the result
@bernardtarver
@bernardtarver 3 роки тому
Landlines, cellphones; how do pollsters get this info?
@Kylefassbinderful
@Kylefassbinderful 3 роки тому
I don't get why we're not asking ourselves the better question, why are we placing such a huge amount of stock in polls? Polls that not everyone contributes to. In fact many people refuse to answer questions or admit who their vote is going to. Polls are cool and all but we need to chill out on worshipping them like we've been doing for a while now.
@kbanghart
@kbanghart 2 роки тому
That's very true, but you know how human nature is, everyone wants to see the trends before the actual result.
@asterixky
@asterixky 3 роки тому
Polls and adds should stop a few days before Election day.
@jom8559
@jom8559 3 роки тому
The Government should fully regulate all speech. Clean this place up.
@sugarkang
@sugarkang 3 роки тому
A lot of people who voted for Trump wanted to keep it a secret because we live in an Orwellian society that punishes wrongthink.
@kbanghart
@kbanghart 2 роки тому
So a lot of trump supporters are weird?
@greatsageequaltoheaven8115
@greatsageequaltoheaven8115 2 роки тому
If you wanted vote in Orange Mussolini than really that's on you.
@jom8559
@jom8559 3 роки тому
Was there 1 conservative featured in this video about conservatives?
@julielacaze3253
@julielacaze3253 3 роки тому
Polls are more inaccurate when Trump name is on poll.
@kbanghart
@kbanghart 2 роки тому
Then how have they been accurate up until 2016?
@Watashiwaa
@Watashiwaa Рік тому
When the Presidential disapproval poll is right, then regular polls are wrong
@fadhil_m3
@fadhil_m3 3 роки тому
bah, poll is something paid by the candidates to boost their images, it's just advertising using numbers to look more legit. It's getting harder and harder to believe them since 2010s with their 'inaccuracies'
@fredricklee
@fredricklee 3 роки тому
Would the issue of who is conducting the polls also be a factor in whether individuals give an accurate response of even respond? If you have the perceived liberal arts schools or Ivy schools conducting polls, would the response or no response from the individuals (due to perceived biases) occur. Even those firms that conduct polls may face similar actions if the respondents have a negative perception about polls and those conducting it. I responded to polls, but felt many were too long or ridiculous in my opinion with the infamous scale (e.g. better, slightly better, significantly better, etc.,) as a response. As a result, I try to avoid the calls as much as possible to reclaim my time.
@kbanghart
@kbanghart 2 роки тому
I totally agree about the possibility of being stuck on a long poll. But honestly these days I don't assume they are connected by certain ivy League schools or whatever.
@XOPOIIIO
@XOPOIIIO 3 роки тому
After years of anti-Trump propaganda do you really expect people to be open?
@eliasziad7864
@eliasziad7864 3 роки тому
I cannot see a more wrong poll than Quinnipiac which had Biden winning by 4 points in Ohio, yet he lost by 8 points there, Quinnipiac was off by 12 points in Ohio.
@kbanghart
@kbanghart 2 роки тому
A few were just as bad as quinnipiac. Although, a few States were worse than others, too.
@nightcruise6650
@nightcruise6650 3 роки тому
This video is totally biased.
@Sloppyjoey1
@Sloppyjoey1 3 роки тому
They're lying. It takes 2 questions, are you a Dem / Rep and 1-10 how willing are you to lie or hide your vote to avoid being harassed. "Shy" is a funny way to say "Fearful"
@juliegolick
@juliegolick 3 роки тому
I see how you shoehorned in at the end that ALL polls might be borked, not just political polls. It seems like maybe you coulda spent a bit more time on that!
@jrukawa11
@jrukawa11 3 роки тому
Too many experts, that’s the problem
@VelocityZap
@VelocityZap 3 роки тому
Too many donuts, that's the solution
@VelocityZap
@VelocityZap 3 роки тому
@christina alfonse bruh wtf lol
@solargod3671
@solargod3671 3 роки тому
No point of ever voting again .
@shastaweston
@shastaweston 3 роки тому
There's literally no point in voting for a president because it's all going to be selected and rigged from the get-go regardless what the outcome is.
@franksigwart9777
@franksigwart9777 2 роки тому
Cheaters always lose.
@JuanJohn013
@JuanJohn013 3 роки тому
Yes with the help of unlawful changes in different states
@timewilltell7409
@timewilltell7409 3 роки тому
They don’t want to talk about that because it’s true.
@FinancialShinanigan
@FinancialShinanigan 3 роки тому
Simple, people lie
@juliegolick
@juliegolick 3 роки тому
According to the piece, it's more "people don't answer at all"
@MultiCombo1
@MultiCombo1 3 роки тому
The magic bullet is a blender what are they talking about?
@hennew164
@hennew164 3 роки тому
About the ultimate device for easy food intake for pollters = a vitamix
@MultiCombo1
@MultiCombo1 3 роки тому
@@hennew164 oh that makes sense
@demiller74
@demiller74 3 роки тому
If you had called me I’d have lied about how I really felt because I didn’t want Trump to stomp my guts out on line.
@stevenrodriguez3891
@stevenrodriguez3891 3 роки тому
People realized it's 🐂💩
@philosophicalwisdom2505
@philosophicalwisdom2505 3 роки тому
They fkn lied.
@folk.
@folk. 3 роки тому
Now make "What went wrong with election integrity in 2020"
@timewilltell7409
@timewilltell7409 3 роки тому
From Peter Navarro’s report, ‘The Immaculate Deception:’ “Two key points stand out immediately from the matrix. First, significant irregularities appear to be ubiquitous across the six battleground states. Only Arizona is free of any apparent widespread ballot mishandling while only Pennsylvania lacks significant statistical anomalies. The rest of the matrix in Table 2 is a sea of checkmarks and occasional stars. Second, if one compares the alleged Biden victory margin in Column 7 of the figure with the possible illegal ballots in Column 8, it should be clear that the number of possible illegal ballots dwarfs the alleged Biden victory margin in five of the six states. For example, the alleged Biden victory margin in Nevada is 33,596 votes yet the number of ballots in question is more than three times that. In Arizona, which has the narrowest alleged Biden victory margin at 10,457 votes, there are nearly 10 times that number of possible illegal ballots; and the ratio of the alleged Biden vote lead to possible illegal ballots is even higher for Georgia. Only Michigan is the exception to the rule. This is not because it is likely to be a true exception but simply because there remains insufficient estimates of how the various types of irregularities in Michigan translate into possible illegal votes. Clearly, based on this matrix, the American people deserve a definitive answer as to whether this election was stolen from Donald J. Trump. Absent a thorough investigation prior to Inauguration Day, a cloud and a stain will hang over what will be perceived by many Americans as an illegitimate Biden administration.” navarroreport.com/
@kbanghart
@kbanghart 2 роки тому
LOL no it wasn't stolen
@Jebusmike3
@Jebusmike3 3 роки тому
I've read that the more conservative you are the less likely you are to trust things. I don't answer polls because I like chaos, and people out of my business. Don't care why you wanna know, don't ask. Better figure out some other way.
@kbanghart
@kbanghart 2 роки тому
So, what other way are we supposed to find out? I think Trump supporters are just more comfortable with lying, period.
@NISHUGARVU
@NISHUGARVU 3 роки тому
How you whitewash your BIGOTRY 😂 Well done CNBC
@abhishekdev258
@abhishekdev258 3 роки тому
"fearful Trump voter".
@stormthearsonist
@stormthearsonist 2 роки тому
You had it wrong for the 2016 election and you still don't have it right. Today is 7 9 2021 :)~
@aquarocket8165
@aquarocket8165 3 роки тому
Most thrown out lawsuits are done so under procedural grounds not because they didnt find anything. Try to find an unbiased news website that reduces party propaganda.
@compactcow
@compactcow 3 роки тому
Ok
@brianvieira157
@brianvieira157 3 роки тому
Why polls in 2020 failed to get that answer we will do more polling 😂😂 they just don't work
@rodneyh1947
@rodneyh1947 3 роки тому
The punishment begins after 1/6.
@DarksealStudios
@DarksealStudios 3 роки тому
people about to go insane in 16 hours.
@rickyzhang
@rickyzhang 3 роки тому
The liars asked: " What went wrong with the fake poll in 2020?"
@adiposerex5150
@adiposerex5150 3 роки тому
Who cares, Biden is worlds better.
@andrewbryant47
@andrewbryant47 3 роки тому
Yeah but Donald Trump lost in 2020 so he’s not a figure anymore
@shastaweston
@shastaweston 3 роки тому
#dontvote
@melanatedqueen6662
@melanatedqueen6662 3 роки тому
Nope. Our elders died for my right to vote. My family will always vote ✊🏾
@user-cb2427
@user-cb2427 Рік тому
A lie you a lie
@McLaneFS
@McLaneFS 3 роки тому
This channel can’t be trusted. We know that
@stephen8698
@stephen8698 3 роки тому
The system went wrong. Even software systems need updates to proper function so does political system.
@jdmarcus94
@jdmarcus94 3 роки тому
Wallstreetassassins on Instagram talked about this smh I can't believe this news 🤐😳😳😳😳😳😳😳😳😳
@auro1986
@auro1986 3 роки тому
coronavirus?
@eliasziad7864
@eliasziad7864 3 роки тому
He won by 4 points you fake.
@melanatedqueen6662
@melanatedqueen6662 3 роки тому
He won by 4.5 which is rounded up to 5
@abhishekdev258
@abhishekdev258 3 роки тому
ukposts.info/have/v-deo/mZJ9k2luiaWSumw.html Haha
@coopshopdesigns4890
@coopshopdesigns4890 3 роки тому
Nope
@starboysuniverse9956
@starboysuniverse9956 3 роки тому
yea why would i admit am a Trump suppoter if i know it could cost me my job, all i need to do is vote who caes about them pollsters
@Maltamilkbone
@Maltamilkbone 3 роки тому
First!
@sagarpahuja357
@sagarpahuja357 3 роки тому
It’s CNBC Folks Just dislike and move on to another video
@leongao5120
@leongao5120 3 роки тому
Not first
@groovygrapegramma7161
@groovygrapegramma7161 3 роки тому
The Truth will come out. #Trump2021
@compactcow
@compactcow 3 роки тому
There's no presidential election in 2021.
@iskanderkhan5980
@iskanderkhan5980 3 роки тому
So delusional
@devesha
@devesha 3 роки тому
He lost idiot
@tdawg368
@tdawg368 3 роки тому
J
@jackconnor6172
@jackconnor6172 3 роки тому
Man, you just gotta appreciate how they put Trump stuff literally everywhere. If I lived in the US I would vote Trump just because of that Jesus with MAGA cap xD. And I don't even believe in god.
@kbanghart
@kbanghart 2 роки тому
I hope you are joking....? I mean that you would vote for him just because of the signs? That's exactly the kind of uninformed electorate we DONT need. But if you're being kind of facetious, I do agree that Trump has great marketing for those willing to believe him.
@MrKrumpetz
@MrKrumpetz 3 роки тому
LOL did you just admit something was off? How refreshing. Can't wait to hear more of your lies next month.
@conorfrankie9117
@conorfrankie9117 3 роки тому
I'm single 😥😥😥😥😥
@psp785
@psp785 3 роки тому
The donald 2021
@aspengalloway4093
@aspengalloway4093 3 роки тому
Trump 2020!!
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