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Maybe electing people who won’t be alive for society’s collapse isn’t such a bright idea

Saying "oh hey society is predicted to collapse in 18 years" and following it up with "the first 1000 fans to sign up with this link get a free month of skillshare!" is some disconnected dystopian ish.

"The irony that I am part of the problem. But here ya go, have an ad..." 😂 most excellent!!! Perfectly cheeky!

Living through the birth of internet Living through the birth of social media Living through the acceleration of technology Living through the societal collapse

Hey guys. If we work really hard, we can achieve that goal by 2030

"So basically yeah the world is ending. Sponsored by Skillshare!" This world has literally become a parody of itself at this point

Here is the scary part that isnt talked about. When people refer to past civilizations collapsing, they are refering to a small part of the world, that is relatively isolated from other civilizations. Islotation meaning that they dont rely on other civilizations and empires to survive, and vice versa. Nowadays, when we talk about civilization collapsing, we are referring to a huge portion of the world collapsing, something that we have never seen before.

While "The Limits to Growth" did present a scenario in which global societal collapse could occur around 2040, it's essential to understand that this was just one of many potential outcomes modeled in the report. It wasn't a definitive prediction. Moreover, the intent of the study was more to stimulate thought and discussion about sustainable growth than to make precise forecasts.

"This video is brought to you by Skill, Share. Thanks to SkillShare you can [learn all of these cool things] which will be useless by 2040 according to MIT"

MIT couldn’t even predict that their janitor was a genius, so my confidence is pretty minimal.

Two years later and things are only worse... I think a collapse is inevitable.

de Toqueville was perhaps the first who looked at many examples to determine common factors in collapse and timescales. They were: Diversion of resources held for the common good to self interested leaders/ elites, increasing bureaucracy/complexity, loss of legitimacy of political leadership, and finally a catalysing challenge (climatic, famine, pandemic, immigration, war). 300 years was the longest time before collapse by early-mid 19th century.

"Here you go, have an ad." "What a good little consumer you are." I died a little.

“When the end of the world comes, I want to be in Kentucky, because everything there happens 20 years after it happens anywhere else.” - Mark Twain

Just stumbled on this today - thanks for an interesting video. I used to do systems dynamics programming back in the 1980s-90s (I'm that old!) using a program called LISP, and we would do Monte-Carlo type repetitions (changing the input paremeters slightly many times, either to simulate some statistical distribution or on a planned theoretical basis) just like this study did (which I have NOT read or studied). Most people probably aren’t familiar with SD but it’s fairly easy to explain - think of a diagram with some variables in it, with lines with arrows following from one to another, where every variable has things it influences and things that are influencing it. There are a few things worth considering. First - obviously - is the model itself, barring some kind of external unmodeled shock, like a nuclear war. Also, the variables included, and how to measure them, as well as each one’s SD relationship with other variables (for example population, which is (relatively) fairly simple - how is it defined (including age demographics, gender distribution, health, education, etc?), how those are measured (people living, healthy people living, some statistical distribution of them, etc?), and what other measured variables are influenced by each, as well as what variables each influences (years of productive work, innovative capabilities, urban versus rural living, and so forth). Well, it can get very complicated and the theoretical SD models that preceed the programming often have mini-models embedded inside them. Sadly, SD models inevitably wind out to some steady state-stasis or go wildly out of control, both of which are outcomes are intuitively not very likely - you just have to follow the models out far enough to see this (apparently beyond 2040 for this one). The apex of SD modeling popularity was in the 1980s when we imagined that we were smart enough to capture enough variables and their relationships to actually understand how things would go. Time has largely shown that not to be the case. SD models are interesting, but probably mainly not for predicting how things will turn out but in thinking about the form of the model and - as we learn and observe - refining the model over time in understanding how things affect one-another. It’s VERY rare for a systems dynamics model to be able to make good predictions about the ‘future’ (although as I say I don’t know this one specifically.) Perhaps modern society WILL collapse in 2040, but if it does, I suspect it will be for reasons aside from those of this SD model.

It will teach everyone a life lesson that excessive consumerism, continuing to elect corrupt and decrepit politicians, and widespread use of monoculture farming and other unsustainable habits by other industries is the ultimate bane triangle of humanity.

The biggest problem with humanity is the fact that we typically tend to be more reactive then proactive we wait until the last minute to fix big problems that could have been solved a long time ago

Never let anyone make a decision if they won't personally suffer for being wrong.

Keep up the amazing work mate! I will continue to spread the word

Wow what a motivating video to see as I browse through youtube on a break from figuring out what I want to do in the future

My experience is that there's never been a group of science types as bad at prediction as economists.

The way Covid was handled is a good insight as to how screwed we are if something even more serious comes

Really need this advanced information of world economy well explained thanks for putting things in a great potential Way.

Why did past civilizations collapse... Perhaps they debated pronouns instead of figuring out the housing crisis and inflation.

This has happened in New Zealand. A quarter of the population in NZ are elderly, and young people keep leaving due to the high stress of paying taxes to fund so many retired people, who insultingly own the rental property they live in because young people can't afford a house due to the high taxes and low wages they earn.

"Why get hostile when you can get rich?" is literally the founding principle of the EU.

Every generation blames the one before for their problems. Eventually you realize that it does nothing beneficial and begin to work them out for yourselves.

I love your videos, however there is one thing that keeps bugging me; I've noticed you don't use stippled lines for the horizontal plane when dealing with the XY graphs. is it possible for future endeavours to make this change? :D

"History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes" - Mark Twain

I believe we can not only achieve this ahead of schedule, but also hit all four collapses: political, social, environmental, AND economic. Boom, extra credit.

Very good video, it has really helped me, it is very good to know about the se topics, thank you very much

That ad placement was hilarious! Can't even be mad about that.

There's a book called Fates Of Empires by Sir John Glubb in which he studied lots of failed societies, and found a pattern. We're just following along the cycle he discovered. One reason he mentions for this that the OP didn't mention....was that history is not truthfully taught. Since we constantly revise history, we can't escape the cycle.

I personally think that the collapse is more probable because we are more of a reactive society that waits till the last second to do something rather than being proactive. Political corruption and corporate won’t be going away and people are resistant to change, America is very guilty of that. The people who could have the power to make major decisions for the better aren’t really doing much and I feel as though we aren’t changing fast enough.

A weak dollar can signal an economic downturn, making me to ponder on what are the best possible ways to hedge against inflation, and I've overheard people say inflation is a money-eater thus worried about my savings around $200k.

Excellent video Mate and great job learning to sketch. 👍

Social Collapse doesn't always mean post apocalyptic dystopia but rather that the currents social structures will either be incredibly inefficient or completely reformed

Ahead of schedule, well done team 😃🙏🏼

My favorite part: "Here you go, have an ad. What a good little consumer you are". I haven't laughed about an ad break till now.

I liked the "apartment vs. castle" statement. I visited the main ruins of a castle in Germany and, until the guide mentioned it, it never occurred to me just how COLD those joints got in the winter...

The worst attitudes to develop from this are: 1. It's no problem, so let's continue the status quo and 2. we're already perma-fucked, so let's continue the status quo.

It's called greed and corruption issues!! Soon the whole world will feel the down fall caused by the same thing!!

"Why get hostile, when you can get rich!" I need that on a Tee.

“It’s easier to imagine the end of the world than the end of capitalism.” Mark Fisher

For anyone worried about this report, please keep in mind that data models cant even predict a days worth of weather accurately. Society is a much more complex model with so many moving parts that are influenced by human emotions (unlike the weather). As someone who works in data science, I highly suggest you to take any long term prediction with a grain of salt. We make very very specific data models to price products based on a small set of data points and most of them blow up as soon as they come into contact with real world data. Alarmism sells, nobody would care about a report which doesn't predict a catastrophe.

Great summation. Do you have a link to the current report you could post? Thank you!

12:56 actually no - less demand for cars = less demand for workers making them = more people fired from their jobs. Then the knock-down effect is all the suppliers have to downscale and even taxi drivers, van drivers and public transport drivers lose their jobs.

Does Anyone Else Feel Like Everything Has Changed? There is also this feeling that the whole world is holding it's breath. Almost as though we are all waiting for some catalyst or sign or event that puts an end to this feeling of being put on hold. This vague unexplained unease. Everyone is disconnected from each other and there’s no longer any respect or tolerance for each other. No one likes to communicate in person anymore and everyone does things only for money rather than for purpose and meaning. We also have a loneliness epidemic.

Useful information begins at 11:58 You're welcome

Will come back to this video in 2040. See you then.

I think one factor that plays a key role is education, how informed and how much knowledge a civilization possesss is key to innovation and decisions for the other factors mentioned

Our biggest problem is waste. We waste EVERYTHING. Clothing,food,water,energy. You name it and we waste it. If it doesn't fit or if it's broken, we just throw it away. Waste is by far our biggest issue

Would love to see a comparison of the various economic doomsday theories of the 50s-80s and see how they've fared. I remember hearing my parents and their friends talking about them in the early 90s, and yet here we are.

10:57 bro, i had to pull over and laugh for literal minutes because of your timing.

at 1:43, the statue looks like a gold covered bronze, now viewable at the museum in Pergola, Italy's Marche region

Meanwhile politicians _know_ about all of this, yet are too busy pinning the public against each other and furthering their own agendas to actually do anything about it. I think it's also kinda gross that the critics who state "necessity is the mother of invention" is how we're going to solve these issues. Thing is they're not _wrong,_ humans as whole are notorious for ignoring problems until they're actually threatening something personal to them, it's just the apathetic attitude behind it that's gross.

I was 20 when the Limits to Growth was published. I really did not expect our civilisation to endure until today. I am constantly gobsmacked at how résiliant and innovative humans are, but I’m not encouraged by the general ambivalence and ignorance of our world “leaders”. I’ll be ninety by 2040, if I’m lucky. I’m much more concerned for my children and grandchildren’s future. As they say, “There is no planet B.”

My own prediction would be closer to 2030

I have read about this scoietal collapse theory for a while but only now fully understand how it can possibly and realistically come about!..This is a brilliant piece of analyysis. Well done mate, you've done it again. #fellowaussie

"A lot of technological innovation these days is just major companies finding new and innovative ways for you to waste your time consuming advertiser content." - this is so true, disappointing, and frightening.

Don’t worry guys, I got this, I’ll stop the collapse. You will know I was successful with my mission when you wake up on January 1st, 2041 to a still functioning world.

I saw a guy with a sign yesterday. The sign said, the world will end tomorrow.

Firstly thanks for the presentation. Much appreciated. You may be right about our human nature and abilities to be innovative. I still feel uneasy about the modelling predictions particularly the inclusion of the variables. Despite not including some of the data that we are experiencing also only serves to heighten my concern. World authorities aught to be paying some attention to this matter as we do not have much time for corrective measures. It’s a similar matter in space where there’s an asteroid that could require some critical course correction upon its next pass. Failure to take action at that time May place earth in danger of a collision with the asteroid the following passage where there’s a trajectory plotted too close for comfort and safety for earth. Why chance a collision when action soon alleviates the risk ?? It’s always been the same old story !!!!!

Just my Luck! By the time I’ll be old enough to retire, our Effin Economy and Society will Collapse 🤦‍♂️

If Society does collapse, remember to press “V” because it activates your VATS

Something tells me these researchers had read "Foundation" by Isaac Asimov

Great video as usual. But afaik the idea of feedback loops does not come from music but rather from cybernetics.

I think we should remember that when a civilization collapses it doesn't always mean everyone dies immediately, it usually means people slowly migrate elsewhere.

So, a little extra bit for people who are curious : systems dynamics models are a bit different than the modern machine learning systems we generally picture today. they do not have the ability to be trained and learn, instead they are hand built, usually using multiple theories that are then chained together into bigger 'systems'. The 'historical data' bit is for hand validation, you run known datasets through it and see how well your theory does, then you have to hand make adjustments. It is still pretty heavily used today since it is much more explainable than ML, but requires a lot more up front work and is not as useful for things like recommendation systems (the core of search, advertising, and product/media browsing) so it gets a lot less attention.

Great. Great job, wonderful

I’m getting a completely blank screen watching this has it begun already lol or do I just need to restart the app?

"Worst case scenario? - Well then I guess it's time to learn how to forage food in the wilderness. Which you can right now with Skillshare" Greatest sponsor segue in history. Well done.

Societies collapse because no population ever believes it could happen to them. Since they believe their system to be eternal, they never deviate from the "business as usual" model. Only when the collapse occurs do , they then scream "Why didn't someone warn us? Why didn't someone do something to stop this?", conveniently forgetting all the times they attacked anyone who dared say that "business as usual" was anything but the greatest path of all.

I loved your segue into the ad around 12 mins

I am in no way concerned about anything after the last 3+ years in "American-Politics"!!😂😂😂😂

"Here you go, have an ad" Me: "Ha, there's no way you can't do that" Me a second later: '____'

As someone who has worked with simulations before, this is the most critical question: How many times did they rerun the thing and the result was “nothing interesting” before the run that gave them the “the world is ending” result? EDIT: More analysis on the study below!

Love that "here you go have an add"

For more innovation to occur the vested interests in many developed and developing economies would have to accept diminished power, status and potential relatively easy profits. Most people usually don't want to change unless the incentives are huge or the inconveniences become too much to bear.

It can take hundreds of years for an empire to collapse. Easy to see when looking at ruins, hard to see when you are in it as it happens.

To quote Historia Civilis roughly “On average there has been a great power conflict every 50 years all the way back to when clear superpowers existed and even before… with two BIG exceptions, after the Napoleonic Wars, and right now” Only two times where there was peace for an extended period of time, a none that lasted more than 100 years Edit: No we aren’t all gonna die soon, what I quoted is an observation of the pattern not a fundamental law of the universe, so calm down

Very very well presented, thanks cobber

At the core of this collapse is greed. Those who have enough want more, and that takes from others causing disparity.

EE: "Innovation today is basically major companies finding innovative ways for you to waste time on ad sponsored content. Yes, I know the irony that I'm part of the problem but, here you go, have an ad..." *Udemy advert plays *Skips ad EE: "What a good little consumer you are." 😂😂😂

"If you're watching this, you have access to the internet" *me in 2077 watching it in a post apocalyptic digital library*

'We are ahead of schedule', doesn't it mean we are actually doing good

Whenever I want to say "G'day, mate!" like an Australian, I speak in my normal American accent, "G'die, Mite!" Perfect every time.

The thing I like about these "predicting models" is that they are often wrong.

Those set dates for the collapse of the civilization never worried me. As a Brazilian there is no way I'll be on time for it.

Somewhere on the back cover of Richard Buckminster Fuller's book ...." Grunch Of Giants ...." occurs a message to the effect ....( nowhere within this book will you find the word " economics " ) .... nor does one .... anywhere within it ....recall even once finding that word .

YEARS AGO I realized the longevity of a civilization is inversely proportional to its rate of technological advancement . We don’t have very long

I was at MIT economics at the time, and I met Prof Forester several times. You have to remember that the 70s were a time of huge commodity price increases. Many people, not just economists, extrapolated this out to mean that we would eventually run out of things. Later this became known as "peak oil" etc.I remember one paper that said we would soon run out of copper because the minimum minable grade was assumed to be 0.1%. None of this occurred. The '80s were a time a commodity price collapse. This was due to Increased production, tech driven substitution - all the usual things. Prices in real terms have never recovered. Great for us shorts. You should do a video on this whole era, the Club of Rome etc. It would go well with your wry delivery.

Guys, it's been a rough couple of years for humanity. We've been through a couple of defeats. It's good to finally be ahead in something. So keep up the good work everyone. Cheers!

Mutual insured destruction brought peace. Peace brings wealth. War brings wealth to some, but its still a net loss.

Who's to say this isn't just a correction of the trajectory of the population. Who's to say this is bad for the Earth or for the further development of our cultures

The average person has never been so poor. Millions of families are struggling financially as living expenses hit the highest levels in more than four decades. Over 60% of our country lives paycheck to paycheck and about 40% earns poverty wages. Even after working all their lives, more than a quarter of older people have no savings and many believe they will never be able to retire in dignity, while around 55% of elderly people try to survive on an income of less than €25,000 a year. My primary concern is how to grow my reserve of €300k which has been sitting duck since forever with zero to no gains.

At least the governments are ahead of schedule on something for once.

Only way to avoid all of these scenarios is to implement a Resource Based Economy like the one advocated by The Venus Project

Is it only me or others too feel that things are uncomfortably changing very fast since last few years (post Covid) ?