Russia's Kaliningrad Problem with Lithuania Is Ukraine 2.0 ... with Some Big Differences

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William Spaniel

William Spaniel

День тому

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Lithuania has begun enforcing European Union export restrictions on Russia, thereby blocking deliveries of steel to its Kaliningrad exclave. The parallels between this situation and Ukraine are uncanny. However, there are a few major dissimilarities that will likely lead to a different outcome.
0:00 What is Kaliningrad?
0:49 The Lithuania Crisis
1:43 Connection to Ukraine
3:08 How Russia Bought the Black Sea Fleet
5:12 The Kaliningrad Land Bridge Problem
6:40 The Crimea Land Bridge Problem
8:26 Why Lithuania Is Different
Images licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/...
From President of Ukraine:
www.president.gov.ua/en/photo...
From Government of Ukraine:
www.zoda.gov.ua/news/4344/pre...
www.zoda.gov.ua/news/21782/vi...
From Kremlin.ru:
www.kremlin.ru/events/presiden...
en.kremlin.ru/events/president...
kremlin.ru/events/president/ne...
en.kremlin.ru/events/president...
kremlin.ru/events/president/ne...
en.kremlin.ru/events/president...
en.kremlin.ru/events/president...
en.kremlin.ru/events/president...
en.kremlin.ru/events/president...
kremlin.ru/events/president/ne...
Images licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/...
From RIAN Archive:
visualrian.ru/ru/site/gallery/...
Images licensed under CC BY 2.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/...
By U.S. Secretary of Defense:
www.flickr.com/photos/secdef/...
FinnishGovernment:
www.flickr.com/photos/finnish...
From European People's Party:
www.flickr.com/photos/4519883...
Baltic Economic Forum:
www.flickr.com/photos/baltic-...
Images licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/...
From Saeima:
www.flickr.com/photos/saeima/...

КОМЕНТАРІ: 5 200
@CJusticeHappen21
@CJusticeHappen21 Рік тому
Lithuania purposefully rejected assimilation with Kaliningrad for the purpose of avoiding adding Russians to their population. They basically avoided the fate that Ukraine got when they got Crimea.
@idkgoodname
@idkgoodname Рік тому
@@Manticoruss Russia illegally declared independence from Mongols too. Therefore, we can conclude that Russia is rightfully Mongol owned.
@jjsmthr
@jjsmthr Рік тому
@@Manticoruss Russia is not an independent country. It's basically a terrorist state. Deal with it.
@akzy4532
@akzy4532 Рік тому
@@Manticoruss cope
@lacosta0892
@lacosta0892 Рік тому
@@Manticoruss and russia illegally took crimea from Ukraine, what’s your point?
@compatriot852
@compatriot852 Рік тому
It would have also given more Russian military support against the Forest Brothers as well
@BANKO007
@BANKO007 Рік тому
One major correction. The Baltic States of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia were not Soviet brothers, but they were forcibly occupied by Soviet Russia from the original invasion in 1940 (interrupted by Germany for three years) until post-Soviet restoration of independence and liberation from Soviet occupation.
@markheithaus
@markheithaus Рік тому
Yep. That's my issue with "The Great Patriotic War" celebrations. I'm American, and I'm generally a bit conservative and religious (I hope not obnoxiously so). I understand a lot of the Russian mindset, and I lived in St Petersburg, Russia for a while. But I now see "The Great Patriotic War" as an obsession. I'll never forget my first few months in Belarus and Russia, and I gawked in utter fascination at the Lenin Squares, Victory Parks, and all the monuments that said 1941-1945. But then I remember my first visa run to Estonia and noticed the obvious lack of Soviet anything. The Museum of the Occupations in Tallinn was impactful. What strikes me is how many Russians deny to an obsessive degree anything that suggests that Russia wasn't the almighty savior of Eastern Europe. It's a problem. The memory gap is very real.
@BANKO007
@BANKO007 Рік тому
@@markheithaus Very well put
@Rigel_6
@Rigel_6 Рік тому
@@markheithaus ​ Well, I'm not sure how Lithuanians and Estonians see it, but from Polish point of view, the "Great patrioric war" as ruskies call it should be called the "Great unprovoked war of agression, butchery and backstabbing". In every conceivable way, USSR was as much a villain of WW2 as Germany was, hell, maybe even more, given all the consequences felt over the next 50 or so years. On another note, russians belive they were "helping" other SSRs and satellite states like Poland and Chechoslovakia, but in reality they were pulling ridiculous amount of resources with nothing in return, causing food crises while moscovites were... well, not living a luxurious life, but at least didn't have to fucking buy meat on monthly debit. There is a USSR-era saying in Poland - it goes something along the lines of "What is the height of mistrust? To drill into the 'friendship' pipeline and check which way the gas is flowing"
@joachim5080
@joachim5080 Рік тому
@@markheithaus and if Hitler would not have outright attacked Russia (one of the biggest sins ever committed) Stalin would have been content in splitting up Europe between the two of them, as done with Poland.
@kumisispaketov3654
@kumisispaketov3654 Рік тому
​@@markheithaus eastern europe. ah yes, the great involvement of allies in eastern front, somehow in the american version(even) of wikipedia there's nothing about that, but at least there is a statistic that says everything that soviets had were 60-70% by lend-lease. ah so true, my memory gap is gone.
@rufenas123
@rufenas123 Рік тому
at once Lithuania was ranked nr1 at hating russia. Calling them "brothers" is a big mistake. Lithuania sees russia as the biggest enemy as the biggest bad guy, from all the countries occupied by them Lithuania fought the hardest. Out guerilla war was one of the longest and bloodiest in europe.
@killmeh2
@killmeh2 Рік тому
@Duplizapper we continue to hate russia, meanwhile germans can't have enough of russian pipes in their mouths
@fictionwojak3595
@fictionwojak3595 Рік тому
@Duplizapper Lithuania still hates Russia more, as the Nazis caused less pain and suffering than the Soviets here in Lithuania.
@R0ccojas0n
@R0ccojas0n Рік тому
@Duplizapper Germany chose hostiles with USSR though....Lithuania was only defending their home
@kubsonixd6845
@kubsonixd6845 Рік тому
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-Russian_sentiment Polish people hate the mist
@zarakdurrani7584
@zarakdurrani7584 Рік тому
Respect to Lithuania. Fighting stronger countries and empires since the 13th century.
@LTVeranda
@LTVeranda Рік тому
"Soviet union" was never a "union', for Baltic states it was a brutal occupation. Baltic states have always been oriented towards the West and when occupied by Soviet union, continued their resistance through entire occupation time. So to call Lithuania and Russia 'brothers' is just disrespectful. A third part of population was wiped out, most of families in Lithuania have their relatives or grandparents killed by the soviets.
@XXX1NELSON1XXX
@XXX1NELSON1XXX Рік тому
ukraine suffered the same. well most of countries ocuppied by orcs suffered that
@BrianLTU
@BrianLTU Рік тому
Yh disrespectful fs
@siberiancat9363
@siberiancat9363 Рік тому
@@XXX1NELSON1XXX ahahahaha. Based as f
@hkxl493
@hkxl493 Рік тому
@@siberiancat9363 attention seeking child spotted
@tstanemo8950
@tstanemo8950 Рік тому
He was being sarcastic when he said brother
@marksullivan2230
@marksullivan2230 Рік тому
Kaliningrad was originally a German City. During WW2 the city was levelled with not a single building surviving. As late as the 1980, significant buildings - such as their Cathedral - were still in ruins. At the end of the War, Russia decided it wanted an “ice free” port for the Baltic fleet. So they evicted every single German, then settled it with Russians. It is strange when you go there because they put an enormous effort into celebrating their German history and culture. Which is hilarious because not a single family can trace their roots back to earlier than 1945.
@gamerdrache6076
@gamerdrache6076 Рік тому
true my family is from there when it wa sgerman
@unconscious1076
@unconscious1076 Рік тому
Using the logic shouldn't north Americas entirely belong to Natives since they were there for millennia ?
@marksullivan2230
@marksullivan2230 Рік тому
@@unconscious1076 No, it is just for history and context. As far as I know, Germany is not asking for it back. Although now you mention it, given where it’s positioned, it probably just makes sense to split it between Poland and Lithuania now don’t you think? Really the Baltic is a NATO lake now so it is not really a viable territory any more. Maybe have a referendum and see if the residents want to be part of Lithuania and the EU. Much better salaries etc. in the EU.
@unconscious1076
@unconscious1076 Рік тому
@@marksullivan2230 agreed
@Arcaryon
@Arcaryon Рік тому
@@marksullivan2230 Na, it will just become our anti Russia. Like a reverse GDR. We let Germany do the finances, Poland does the logistics and the locals finally get a decent government and everyone is happy. Except Putin. He would not be happy. But who cares about that guy anyways.
@CHITUS
@CHITUS Рік тому
5:39 Lithuania was never been a "Soviet brother". They was just a oppressed and occupied territory by Soviet Union. They fought their way out literally with only hands against tanks by laying down on the streets, pushing them with bare hands. That was in 1991, people died that day, crushed with tanks and shot dead by soviet soldiers.
@jamsky1558
@jamsky1558 Рік тому
Yeah, this is important. "Soviet brothers" are like a group of family members, recovering together in therapy, after moving out from abusive josef fritzl style father, calling himself the boss of the neighborhood, because he has a machine gun.
@jamsky1558
@jamsky1558 Рік тому
@@weakspirit_ but people watching this don't know this. It's for them, not for the author.
@danielch6662
@danielch6662 Рік тому
@@jamsky1558 yeah. Uncle Joe was from Georgia. His whole life, he spoke Russian with a weird accent. Not that anybody dared pointing it out while he was alive.
@Gametheory101
@Gametheory101 Рік тому
@@weakspirit_ Right, it was sarcastic. The next sentence immediately pivots to "Lithuania was like lol no."
@danielch6662
@danielch6662 Рік тому
CHITUS, Antanas Sniečkus was not Lithuanian? Krushchev offered to transfer Kaliningrad to Lithuania in the 1950s. But Sniečkus refused, mostly because there were already too many Russians in it by that time. Crimea is larger than Kaliningrad, but Ukraine is even larger than Lithuania. Lithuania only has 2.8 million people today, 85% Lithuanian and 5% Russian. Kaliningrad's population is 430,000 with 87% of them Russian, and hardly any Lithuanian at all. If Kaliningrad were annexed into Lithuania today, Lithuania's Russian population would jump from 5% to 16%. And the worse part of it is they are all concentrated in the southern part of the country. This could possibly in the future give rise to separatists wanting to tear off that bit of the country and annex it to the other neighbour. Like what happened to Coahuila y Tejas.
@losthart5577
@losthart5577 Рік тому
If Russia didn't treat its dominions like crap during the "Commie" years, then maybe these countries wouldn't be defensive towards Russia. Remembering old wounds bring up old fears. 🤔
@debilman9065
@debilman9065 Рік тому
And the Russians are not helping quell Eastern Europe's fears by commiting war crimes in Ukraine.
@mmarsh1972
@mmarsh1972 Рік тому
No, they all pretty much all hated Russia before the communists as well. Russia has a LOOONG history of invaded its neighbors throughout the centuries.
@angelikaskoroszyn8495
@angelikaskoroszyn8495 Рік тому
Honestly people are willing to forget a lot since new generations simply never experienced Soviet version of communism. The issue is that Russia never grew out of its imperial phase It's a self-fulfilling prophecy. Poland is not that EU-loving, NATO ass-sucking, West lover. But because Russia continues to act as Big Bad no political party even proposes leaving either of the organisations. Similar thing happens with Nordic as well as Baltic countries and finally with Ukraine
@augustuslunasol10thapostle
@augustuslunasol10thapostle Рік тому
@@angelikaskoroszyn8495 poland infact loves to NATO and loves EU benefits
@mavfin8720
@mavfin8720 Рік тому
Same reason Poland is very anti-Russia
@gediminaskucinskas6952
@gediminaskucinskas6952 Рік тому
You forgot to mention that soviet union once suggested to give Kalliningrad to Lithuania but Lithuania rejected because they feared that since there are so many russians there (as most native german or lithuanian people that lived in Kalliningrad were killed or deported) it could cause to big problems in the future like Crimea.
@punkmonk666
@punkmonk666 Рік тому
HOLY CRAP I didn't knew we at Kaliningrad are so unlucky)
@grzegorzbrzeczyszczykiewic1139
@grzegorzbrzeczyszczykiewic1139 Рік тому
If they gave it to Poland, there would be no problem. They should have as compensation for eastern land they took from us. We would have no problem to populate it and they knew it. But Stalin hated Poland, he took Lviv from us, Grodno with over 80% Polish population which is right next to the border. Imagine "winning" a war and getting smaller.
@bogjesrbin484
@bogjesrbin484 Рік тому
@@grzegorzbrzeczyszczykiewic1139 Stalin hated Poland? Man, he gave a lot of core German territory to Poland for free. It’s totally unfair. And Lviv was founded by Russian king from rurik dynasty, and the whole area is known as red Rus
@grzegorzbrzeczyszczykiewic1139
@grzegorzbrzeczyszczykiewic1139 Рік тому
@@bogjesrbin484 For free???? 2nd Polish republic was 24,6% bigger than modern Poland. You call this for free? Territories of red rus changed hands several times in early middle ages between Kyivan Rus and Poland. In 14th century it was incorporated into Poland for good and ever since it was a Polish city. Poles made it the capitol of the region, the grandest city in contemporary Ukraine. For centuries it was a center of Polish culture, probably in top 3 most important cities in interwar Poland. Stalin hated Poland because of 1920. At that time he sieged Lviv and refused to sent help to Tuchaczewski's efforts in Warsaw, creating a gap in Bolshevik forces and allowing Poles to counter attack. Taking Lviv from Poland was a matter of personal ambition and revenge. It's funny how you call these "core German lands" when they were founded by Poland and it lost them to Germany around the same time when it got red rus.
@grzegorzbrzeczyszczykiewic1139
@grzegorzbrzeczyszczykiewic1139 Рік тому
@@bogjesrbin484 Besides he was no Russian king, Rus or Ruthenian king. King of Galicia and Volhynia. Much closer to modern Ukraine than Russia.
@taumil3239
@taumil3239 Рік тому
"Lithuania, one of its former soviet brothers" - we were never brothers, actually I don't think there was ever anything resembling even a notion of positive feelings towards Russia
@777chicha777
@777chicha777 Рік тому
There was, until there wasn't. That's how love works. It slows ebbs closer or further. Saying you were never brothers is like saying you were never part of the CCCP
@danekender5332
@danekender5332 Рік тому
I think your rite 🍻
@kazekamiha
@kazekamiha Рік тому
By 'Former Brothers' I imagine it's where one holds the other at gun point and says "I AM YOUR BROTHER! YOU WANT TO BE SHOT!? DO YOU!?!?"
@orangypteco8858
@orangypteco8858 Рік тому
@@777chicha777 because Lithuanians were never part of the USSR by their choice, the baltic were constantly strong armed by the Russians into this "brotherhood" which was more of an occupation than any kind of true cultural connection.
@777chicha777
@777chicha777 Рік тому
@@orangypteco8858 you're wrong. Russia and the USSR are not the same. The USSR was communist while Russia is democratic (in most ways). Russia agreed to Lithuanian independence and had almost no issues. Their issues with Ukraine were always there.
@MV-hx6jr
@MV-hx6jr Рік тому
Dude, Lithuania was never a "Soviet brother" , what a weird messed up comparison that is
@snowman821
@snowman821 Рік тому
@@SunriseLAW no
@psy-lion
@psy-lion Рік тому
more than a forced step-brother :D
@CamPaFai
@CamPaFai Рік тому
it's a joke
@TheAustronaut03
@TheAustronaut03 Рік тому
thats how putin sees it
@-.respect.-
@-.respect.- Рік тому
the subtitles say soviet "brothers" so he was being sarcastic
@RandomBazooka
@RandomBazooka Рік тому
Lithuania being a soviet brother? That is a big factual mistake to say. It's like saying USA is a Chinese brother.
@bardanke
@bardanke Рік тому
We are though
@benas_st
@benas_st Рік тому
@@bardanke Sovietinis broli, laimingai gali eiti ieškoti Stalino (o dabar Putlerio) saulės. Kai išdegins akis, gal ką nors ir suprasi.
@bardanke
@bardanke Рік тому
@@benas_st Tai stalino ar putino?
@bardanke
@bardanke Рік тому
@@benas_st O tau jie jau isdegino akis?
@aldonabagusauskas4956
@aldonabagusauskas4956 Рік тому
I know! Where do these people get this B S from?
@bljah123
@bljah123 Рік тому
Thanks for the info and history. Not always easily available on main stream, plus saves me having to dig in 😊
@vgshwk
@vgshwk Рік тому
Funny that Russia is beetching about Kaliningrad being denied a land route to continental Russia which is perfectly legal when they are denying Ukraine illegally a sea route to the Black Sea.
@rafikrabhi7684
@rafikrabhi7684 Рік тому
Ukraine has blocked their own ports with mines to keep the Russians out. ..
@vgshwk
@vgshwk Рік тому
@@rafikrabhi7684 Ukraine never mined Mariupol.
@rafikrabhi7684
@rafikrabhi7684 Рік тому
@@vgshwk they did with Odessa
@vgshwk
@vgshwk Рік тому
@@rafikrabhi7684 they had no choice with Russia stealing Crimea and then snake island.
@rafikrabhi7684
@rafikrabhi7684 Рік тому
@@vgshwk that's another point but Russia aint blocking or denying.
@richardk5246
@richardk5246 Рік тому
I have family in Lithuania and they would not have called themselves brothers with Soviet Russia. Everyone I know in Lithuania hated them and the feelings against Russia are still very strong.
@feloniousmonk3049
@feloniousmonk3049 Рік тому
Its no different in the Netherlands since WWII, still an intense but subdued lack of trust with the Germans, since being occupied by the N a z i s
@SroWwe
@SroWwe Рік тому
@fan there’s no such thing as +-25% russians. It’s as much as 5% or even less.
@zjeee
@zjeee Рік тому
@@fan-ey8mn The Russian speaking population is less than 5%.
@marioformosa4259
@marioformosa4259 Рік тому
Yes brother or otherwise it is not wise to taunt a big guy hoping that a diversity guy will come and help you
@nekochan222
@nekochan222 Рік тому
@@fan-ey8mn what are you babbling about, just go check any official source, russian ethnicity number is at 5% (according to 2021 data).
@SparkyCas
@SparkyCas Рік тому
It's hard to really formulate words on how I'm not surprised, as a native to Lithuania, that my country is very keen on keeping Russian export out of it's way with the restrictions that it's slowly applying. It's just a bit hilarious, knowing the history us Lithuanians have with Russia.
@cookiecola5852
@cookiecola5852 11 місяців тому
Yeah and it also feels so satisfying playing hard ball with Putin😄
@user-rz8wl6st9d
@user-rz8wl6st9d Рік тому
I live 10km away from Kaliningrad, its a bit scary because sometimes we can hear them doing tank shooting exercises, and its a bit scary
@edvsilas8281
@edvsilas8281 Рік тому
@user-rz8w16st19d You : '' I live 10km away from Kaliningrad, its a bit scary because sometimes we can hear them doing tank shooting exercises, and its a bit scary .'' There are NATO training exercises on your side, as well, how can you tell the difference by the sound ?
@joeallen9104
@joeallen9104 Рік тому
Liberating ethnic russians and forming a land bridge with crimea may be their official goals, although has anyone noticed that the area occupied just so happens to contain the majority of Ukraine's natural gas reserves?
@Arcaryon
@Arcaryon Рік тому
I will kind of copy and paste a response of myself that explains this very well: (In response to some guy saying it began with the president of Ukraine being allegedly forced to flee the country) The real story is why the protests even began that forced him to flee to escape justice. Remember 2013? "Russian embargo of Ukrainian goods refers to trade sanctions Russia launched against Ukraine starting in July and August 2013. That resulted from putting all Ukrainian importers to the "list of risk" by the Federal Customs Service of Russia on 14 August 2013 that resulted the embargo of imports from Ukraine to Russia.[1][2]" Wanna know why Russia sanctioned Ukraine? To keep them from joining the EU. Not NATO. Guess why we have this war now? Because Putin lost his puppet in 2014, so he knew that he needed to keep Ukraine out of the EU some other way. Why? Because when Ukraine makes it, in his eyes, he is done. Then it would be obvious that his regime is the problem. Then he would be in the GDR again. Did you know that? He was a KGB officer in the GDR when it all fell apart. And later, the director of the FSB. Conveniently just prior to his election. Interesting isn’t it? And why is he ok with Ukraine jointing the EU now? Because while he didn’t get all Ukraine, he thinks that he already ruined its economy for as long as he will live. The Donbass is its industrial heartland. Was. Before 2014. So many convenient circumstances… Why 2022? After the west was finally weakened enough to make his attempt. Did he care for the civilians? In the second Chechen war, HIS Chechen war, VERY conservative ( propaganda ) estimates say that 120.000 civilians were killed. 120.00!!! in the Donbass, in total, on both sides, only 14.000 found the same gruesome fate until 24 February 2022. Not even mentioning the first Chechen war. Total CONSERVATIVE estimate of civilian casualties? At the lowest estimate, 30.000. If we believe Russia. "Let me tell you about one specific case. I knew for sure that on this day - it was the end of February or the beginning of March 1995 - forty servicemen of the Joint Group were killed. And they bring me information about fifteen. I ask: “Why don’t you take into account the rest?” They hesitated: “Well, you see, 40 is a lot. We'd better spread those losses over a few days." Of course, I was outraged by these manipulations. - Anatoly Kulikov[68]" Chechen war #1 "30,000-40,000 civilians killed (RFSSS data)[16] 80,000 civilians killed (Human rights groups estimate)[17] At least 161 civilians killed outside Chechnya[a] 500,000+ civilians displaced[18]" Chechen war #2 "Civilian casualties Estimate total number of casualties: ~80,000 killed in Chechnya (GfbV estimate),[20] More in neighbouring regions, 40,000-45,000 civilians killed (Kramer),[21] More than 600 killed during attacks in Russia proper. Total killed military/civilian: ~50,000-80,000 * The Committee of Soldiers' Mothers group disputed the official government count of the number of war dead and claimed that 14,000 Russian servicemen were killed during the war from 1999 to 2005.[22]" I hope this clears this up. Also, there are many Russians in this area because under Stalin, there was either a mass genocide or insane incompetence and 3.5 million people in the area starved and were then replaced with Russians, since as you have rightfully understood, there are a ton of recourses there, not just gas btw, also a lot of other stuff. In conflicts like this, I always like to find a good map of the recourses a country has. Often, not always though, very insightful.
@Arterexius
@Arterexius Рік тому
@@Arcaryon The civillian casualties in Ukraine are likely much higher than any estimates say right now. The 14.000 dead you mention, is just another estimate. There's no way of checking anything close to a real number, in an active war zone.
@kdw75
@kdw75 Рік тому
How long will we let him hold on to it?
@Arcaryon
@Arcaryon Рік тому
@@Arterexius The conservative 14000 was an estimate until the 24th of February.
@Arterexius
@Arterexius Рік тому
@@Arcaryon The invasion of Ukraine started the 24th of February. Meaning the estimation began on the 24th of February. It didn't end there and there's no absolute number of dead civilians from the 24th of February to now. You're saying that the 14.000 dead civilians were an estimated dead, before the war even started, at a time where the entire western world, didn't fully believe in an invasion.
@richdobbs6595
@richdobbs6595 Рік тому
I find it funny, that Murmansk is effectively a warm water port, since it stays ice free. Most of the time Arkhangelsk is too. But, now days, Russia can use nuclear icebreakers to provide year around access to St Petersburg.
@ianscott3697
@ianscott3697 Рік тому
But Putin would have to move all them ships, build a bigger port to house them, Kaliningrad is more than just a warm port in a snow storm, its a place to fire missiles from.
@erikvangelder6671
@erikvangelder6671 Рік тому
True. I think, for commercial trade that would be somewhat more expensive (one has to deploy one or more ice breakers), but otherwise, fine. For military navy on the other hand, I can imagine that a fixed route provided by an ice breaker, limits the manoeuverability of vessels passing through, which seems to be a grat disadvantage? Hence, I can see why a warm water port still is preferred over a cold water port.
@slartybarfastb3648
@slartybarfastb3648 Рік тому
@@erikvangelder6671 It doesn't really matter in modern times anyhow. Warm water ports were vital in the days of sailing ships. Russia's problem is the US Navy. Murmansk could stay ice free but there is still only one outlet and it's to the west. Arctic ice locks down the north year-round. Same with the east. Russian warships are under constant observation the minute the leave port and there's only one exit. Saint Petersburg and Konigsberg are just as bad for Russia. There is only one exit to the west past Denmark. Same with the Black Sea exiting through the Bosphorus, Gibraltar, or Suez. Vladivostok is locked in by Japan, Korea, China and the Bering Strait. No Russian ship will survive modern war unless they are under the ice before the war starts, and no ship at sea will ever make it back to port, unless confined in the Black Sea, Barents, or Baltic.
@ashscott6068
@ashscott6068 Рік тому
@@ianscott3697 Nobody can stop nukes, no matter where they're fired from. By the time you have even calculated where an ICBM is headed, it's already too late to do much about it. If it were just one, it would take a collossal effort to stop it. But the fact that each ICBM released a shitload of reentry vehicles, while its still beyond the reach of any anti-missile system, and some of those warheads are real and others are decoys, makes stopping every nuke from even ONE ICBM, basically impossible, even if it's launched from the middle of Russia. Putting them next to your enemy, is just a statement. Tactically, it's kinda stupid, because it gives them a small chance to destroy the missile before it even leaves the atmosphere. A very, VERY small chance. Like you already have planes in the air right next to the silo. Cus by the time the launch is detected, and the information passes through all the relevant phonecalls, and eventually gets to that specific pilot...again...too late.
@axlslak
@axlslak Рік тому
It's not all about having a warm water port. You also have to be able to defend it, you also have to be able to supply it by land, and finally, the distance and obstacles between said port and the Atlantic is also important. Shorter the distance, longer the patrols.
@MochineMike
@MochineMike Рік тому
Dude, the Baltics hated the Russians especially Lithuania.. they all pretty much welcomed Nazi Germany as liberators when they invaded after the start of OP Barbarossa
@liesdamnlies3372
@liesdamnlies3372 Рік тому
Same boat as Ukraine on that one. "Holy shit, these Nazi Germans are assholes but they're way better than Russians." Later: "Holy shit they're almost just as bad, nevermind, shoot everyone."
@honkhonk8009
@honkhonk8009 Рік тому
Its hilarious how the Soviets made the NAZIS look like saints. Soviets were truly a fucking black scar on humanity. America has its criticism, but most of the wars its been involved in, and most of the influence its gained, isnt even by purposefully power grabbing. Vietnam was because they had defence treaties with south vietnam, and wanted to prove to Europe that it will honor all its defence treaties regardless of importance. Iraq was because Saddam Hussein would use unusually high quality aluminium for missiles, which normally would be used for uranium enrichment. Stuff like this sent so many alarm bells, that a post 9/11 USA was fear mongered into invading. But even then, Iraq was independent from the US, and actually votes against the US alot of times in the UN. Even then, the US paid reparations to both Vietnam and Iraq. I always loved how Russians try to say the US is "evil and imperialistic", when the Americans look like SAINTS compared to Russia and China.
@belofost
@belofost Рік тому
@@honkhonk8009 So US used chemical weaponry in Vietnam with millions people hurt, they also used nukes to wipe 2 entire cities down. And you say soviet bad, saint Nazis. Well ok, but how about you just understand that you can not call a country good or bad? It does not work this way...
@jimattrill8933
@jimattrill8933 Рік тому
The Ukrainians also welcomed the Germans as a liberation from Soviet Russia which had caused a great famine. Nobody likes the Russians and the same is true nowadays.
@shadowgamer4306
@shadowgamer4306 Рік тому
@@honkhonk8009America is the lesser evil there is no denying that, but calling them saints is a bit too much for me.
@lollertoaster
@lollertoaster Рік тому
Some time ago I checked the routes from Belarus to Kalinigrad Oblast, out of curiosity. There is a direct road going almost perpendicular to the Polish-Lithuanian border through Lithuania.
@nigellawson8610
@nigellawson8610 Рік тому
The Lithuania was ceded to Stalin as part of the secret protocols of the 1939 Molotov-Ribbentrop pact. The poor Lithuanian people had no say in the matter. In 1940 Stalin formally incorporated Lithuania and the two other Baltic republics into his empire. In 1945 as part of the post war settlement at Yalta, the Western allies recognized Stalin's conquests in Eastern Europe of which Lithuania formed a small part. During the incorporation of this small inoffensive country into the Soviet Union, Stalin's NKVD deported and murdered tens of thousands of innocent people. Therefor, when one considers the historical relationship between Russia and Lithuania, the Lithuanian fear and loathing of the Russians is quite understandable in light of the fact that they were enslaved from 1940 to 1991. Brothers they were not!!
@yanisbaker881
@yanisbaker881 Рік тому
Hi from Latvia, Russia isn’t our brother they are the abusive step dad we didn’t want
@johnfalstaff2270
@johnfalstaff2270 Рік тому
Stalin carefully and preventively seized all three Baltic states. Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia followed similar steps by Hitler with Austria and Czechoslovakia. Stalin also populated these countries with Russian citizens, hoping to erase their original identity in the future and replace it with Russian culture and identity. He attacked Poland on September 17, 1939, fearing that Hitler intended to incorporate all of Poland into the German Reich. He clearly did not trust Hitler.
@theholypeanut8193
@theholypeanut8193 Рік тому
@@yanisbaker881 Im from Lithuania and thats bassicly what Russia is.
@F4CIIphantom.obsession
@F4CIIphantom.obsession Рік тому
@RusaForever I do love how Russians claim territories culturally,lingustically and politically completely different, what next will Lithuania be able to get claims and succesful intergration of parts of Western Russia,Belarus and Ukraine, it was an ethnic part of Lithuania for many centuries no?
@5.45x39_
@5.45x39_ Рік тому
They were brothers in trenches of ww2, but Stalin wasn’t a brother neither to Russian nor to Lithuanian red army soldiers, who could be executed because of minor stupid inconvenience despite having ton of medals, ton of completed objectives and ton of eliminated nazis and sometimes even being Heroes of USSR
@viggob4816
@viggob4816 Рік тому
I think Russia would hate for Lithuania to see what kind of goods is transferred. Most likely a lot of western sanctioned goods find their way into Russia, and may very well go in transit here. When Lithuanian customs start to discover this, it will be investigated and most likely several of the problematic firms selling to Russia will eventually get blocked in the west.
@Duesi2024
@Duesi2024 Рік тому
Russia is transporting their stolen washing machines to Kaliningrad, thats why they check the transported goods.
@dapygor9339
@dapygor9339 Рік тому
@@Duesi2024 cringe
@LucasJasche
@LucasJasche Рік тому
@@dapygor9339 cringe is stealing a washing machine during a war, what kind of homeless man loots womens underwear and toilets?
@martso9288
@martso9288 Рік тому
@@jared8515 i mean, they're just businessmen, doing business.
@edvsilas8281
@edvsilas8281 Рік тому
Viggio, Whether you are russian or not, how would you like someone sniffing through your personal effects when it has nothing to do with any sort of exports or imports.
@kube-dude
@kube-dude Рік тому
Russia: attacks Lithuania Poland: button pressing time? Lithuania: yes Poland, button pressing time **Article 5 meme intensifies**
@luk4s56
@luk4s56 Рік тому
*drift phonk music starts playing*
@m60tsabra24
@m60tsabra24 Рік тому
*Tanc a lelek starts to play*
@TheRezro
@TheRezro Рік тому
I mean. Technically in this case Lithuania would push the button as they are in NATO.
@bonyrita7466
@bonyrita7466 Рік тому
Thank you very much for your very clear and detailed information. You do understand what you are talking about. I am impressed. Keep up the good work.
@mirovvid5142
@mirovvid5142 Рік тому
Seeing this video while living 15km from the border on the Polish side is truly an epic gamer moment
@thealex2971
@thealex2971 Рік тому
Really?
@mirovvid5142
@mirovvid5142 Рік тому
For real, the day Russia invaded Ukraine it looked like we were at war as well, military convoys started popping out of nowhere. There's an artillery and tank regiment stationed where I live, in hindsight seeing them mobilise so quickly is reassuring to a certain degree.
@thealex2971
@thealex2971 Рік тому
I kinda know the feeling Im romanian Romania shares the border with Ukraine and after Ukraine is Russia
@Gametheory101
@Gametheory101 Рік тому
To be clear, "brothers" is sarcastic. I am well-aware of the Russia-Lithuania history. Anyway, if you enjoyed this video, check out my new book "What Caused the Russia-Ukraine War? (And How Will It End?)". It brings together the ideas from my recent video series into a coherent narrative. The digital version is out now available at amzn.to/3HY5aqW. You can also read it for free by signing up for a Kindle Unlimited trial at amzn.to/3QMsBr8. (These are affiliate links, meaning I earn a commission when you make a transaction through them. Even if you read it for free, you are still supporting the channel.) Physical edition coming soon!
@averagejoe8358
@averagejoe8358 Рік тому
Yeah, I was thinking that too. Good to clarify before too many people go "Um, ackchually"
@Ghost1828
@Ghost1828 Рік тому
Lithuania is where my dad is from. He fought against Russian soldiers
@danrook5757
@danrook5757 Рік тому
Mine also
@SunnyOst
@SunnyOst Рік тому
I'm surprised I don't hear much more about the landbridge. The current positions make it extremely obvious that this is one of if not _the_ goal
@seligastas
@seligastas Рік тому
You didnt mention the genocide and deportations of people from both those regions throughout both soviet and tsarist times .
@G.A.C_Preserve
@G.A.C_Preserve Рік тому
I like Tsar so I will ignore it
@JoshWilliams-mf9fc
@JoshWilliams-mf9fc Рік тому
This dude is dumb. He gets his info from the news
@wellardme
@wellardme Рік тому
And how the SS were shocked at the brutality of Baltic citizens towards the jewish population when the Nazis arrived.
@Juzztas
@Juzztas Рік тому
@@wellardme Jews here welcomed soviets with flowers during the first occupation
@seligastas
@seligastas Рік тому
@@wellardme ohh i see a vatnik shill . So thats the excuse for the centuries long opression of cental European Countries . Russian are an unapolegeticly expansionist and imperialist country and thers no genuine argument that can support their actions for the last 3 centuries . Hit*er is dwarfed by what colectively russia has dobe to central and western slavic people and other ethnic groups whose land they currently squat on . Work camps , death camps , deportations into icy hell scapes , torture , rape , massacres , rusification , genocide , finantial and economic repression for centuries. And when you try to rebuild you end up like Ukraine , attacked out of spite and jelousy .
@exequielalonsocaceresdelar7007
@exequielalonsocaceresdelar7007 Рік тому
It would be interesting to do a video about the Transnistria-Moldova issue and how it relates to possible escalation
@tatfly5779
@tatfly5779 Рік тому
SO far this week US tried 9 provocations,a plane flying into russ territory,this btch move by lithuania,israel attacking the airport,the nato forces in moldava,an attempted strike on snake island by romanian air forces and so on,so far the rus kept their cool,but it shows how desperate the US is to create new martyrs.It's funny seeing lithuanian idiots commenting how they support this sht when they are under the effect of fear porn,sadly this will bite them back,but I guess it will be better for them to learn the lesson early cause they pissed off both china,russia and turkey.
@madsuramilitaryallianceupd6388
@madsuramilitaryallianceupd6388 Рік тому
True! Moldova is the next.
@camar4630
@camar4630 Рік тому
@@madsuramilitaryallianceupd6388 Don't say that.
@Zlaton.
@Zlaton. Рік тому
@@camar4630 It's inevitable tho
@manuelcampagna7781
@manuelcampagna7781 Рік тому
@@Zlaton. it would be inevitable if Russia won the war. Russia is losing the war and RasPutin's sending more cannon fodder won't help him.
@blotski
@blotski Рік тому
There are very few cases of the differences in USA pronunciation and UK (and in general non-USA) pronunciation. One is 'route'. In the UK this is pronounced the same as 'root'. But 'route' pronounced in the American way does actually exist here in the word 'rout' which means 'a disorderly retreat of defeated troops. Another is 'era 🇺🇸'. This is pronounced in the USA the same way as in the UK we pronounce the word 'error 🇬🇧'. So when an American says 'this was an important era' a British person hears 'this was an important error'. (For info, 'era' in the UK is pronounced 'eeruh').
@lindagitschlag4522
@lindagitschlag4522 Рік тому
thanks for this video. At the 1:00 mark, the CC track said March 15, 2022 but the audio said May 15, 2022. I thought you should know.
@apbpa5042
@apbpa5042 Рік тому
Lithuania and Estonia never wanted to be Russia's "brother"
@eliasziad7864
@eliasziad7864 Рік тому
Neither did the native americans.
@apbpa5042
@apbpa5042 Рік тому
@@eliasziad7864 right, native Americans never want to be Russia's "brother" either 😂
@eliasziad7864
@eliasziad7864 Рік тому
@@apbpa5042 🤡
@apbpa5042
@apbpa5042 Рік тому
@@eliasziad7864 nice make-up
@quakeknight9680
@quakeknight9680 Рік тому
Never should be.
@dzengrinder
@dzengrinder Рік тому
Hey, Russian here. Calling any of the Baltic states "Brothers" is clearly an overstatement. Kazakhstan was more of a Brother-state, if anything, although we have significantly less things in common. The only "Brother" move, that we had in history, is when Soviet riot police was suppressing riots in the late 80s\early 90s, we had some protests against it, that's all. Our countries are more or less doomed to be connected, since we're neighbors, but we'll have to fix our country first, and think a lot about how we interact with our neighbors. Although I do feel bad about Kaliningrad, and hope that it'll be ok. Since I have plenty of friends and some of my colleagues there.
@vult_r
@vult_r Рік тому
let me answer your thoughts about how russia interacts with its neighbours : downright hostile
@tryingtocorrect
@tryingtocorrect Рік тому
"Although I do feel bad about Kaliningrad, and hope that it'll be ok. Since I have plenty of friends and some of my colleagues there." They say only 1% is blocked. So for example food and other stuff can be transported.. and people can travell . So I dont think its a huge issue really, Putin just makes it bigger than it is. Yes, it hurts Kaliningrad military, but normal people not so much really... only 1% is blocked , not fulll block like the Russian media makes us to believe.
@josefmengele181
@josefmengele181 Рік тому
@@tryingtocorrect 640 of your boys scratched off as of yesterday's reports why don't you join up?
@tryingtocorrect
@tryingtocorrect Рік тому
@@josefmengele181 what????
@dzengrinder
@dzengrinder Рік тому
@@vult_r That's what I'm saying
@barbaraherlihy9967
@barbaraherlihy9967 Рік тому
Another excellent and informative video Thank you
@tomseipert3755
@tomseipert3755 Рік тому
Excellent analysis thanks.
@chaosXP3RT
@chaosXP3RT Рік тому
Yevgeny Fyodorovin the Russian Duma on 8 June proposed a bill saying the USSR's recognition of Lithuania's sovereignty on 7 September 1991 was null and void because it went against the Soviet constitution. This tension is entirety Russia's fault
@jpablo700
@jpablo700 Рік тому
Well, Lithuania is obliged to enforce EU sanctions. And didn't Russia say said sanctions were not having any impact on them? So, what's the problem now, Russia?
@highphysics3617
@highphysics3617 Рік тому
Part of the problem is, young Scandinavian women😘 who are not intimidated by the Kremlin Dwarf,and Lithuania is doing all the right things. Because they don't blend with his ego,and,he has absolutley no control, and,that gets up his nose! It would be a different story if Lithuania wasn't part of NATO. He'll probably start picking on Finland again soon.🤣😂 Good on Lithuania. Stand your ground.
@marrchy2682
@marrchy2682 Рік тому
Access to Kaliningrad by Land trough Lithuanian was a prerequisite to Lithuanians independence. It Literally is in the Signed Paper. Voiding the main reason why Lithuania was granted independence, spells doom for that tiny county.
@Charlemagne_III
@Charlemagne_III Рік тому
Don't be stupid. Lithuania isn't making this decision. This decision wouldn't be made without the approval of the United States.
@zbygniewingessnn9342
@zbygniewingessnn9342 Рік тому
@@Charlemagne_III The Terrorists Snakes of ignorance **
@leonieromanes7265
@leonieromanes7265 Рік тому
@@marrchy2682 Russian people and supplies still have access to Kaliningrad. Lithuania is just blocking sanctioned goods from crossing its boarders. Really putin should of seen this coming, when he started his illegal war with Ukraine.
@alvarocshc
@alvarocshc 11 місяців тому
You speak in a way that is very easy to understand for non-native English speakers. It's very clear and not fast. Thank you very much for that.
@camilledouglas7991
@camilledouglas7991 Рік тому
Keep up the good works
@Redfour5
@Redfour5 Рік тому
Good objective observations, light on the whys and history, but to be expected for what this is. Lays out the framework of what is going on very well and most importantly, objectively.
@kircou8300
@kircou8300 Рік тому
¨Putin says , we are not in war , we take just back ,we think what is form us ??, maybe can Germany says the same for Königsberg...
@Arcaryon
@Arcaryon Рік тому
It is certainly the only nation that has a historical claim of 690 years of unbroken rule in the region until 1945.
@nikitro1732
@nikitro1732 Рік тому
maybe then the Germans will also return the millions of lives that were taken by Nazi Germany?
@astakon4815
@astakon4815 Рік тому
Yes, please. I'm sure Lithuanians would be happier if there was Germany instead of Russia nearby.
@CGBear
@CGBear Рік тому
Germany can not. They are civilised country and respect the laws unlike Russia🥲
@johnbarry5036
@johnbarry5036 Рік тому
This was SO well explained 👏
@romualdaskuzborskis
@romualdaskuzborskis Рік тому
One correction: Lithuanian PM stated that ban is *currently* at 1% of transit market. While thr full goal is 54%. That is because these things take time in different areas.
@alexstorm2749
@alexstorm2749 Рік тому
⚡️American military analyst Scott Ritter on the blockade of Kaliningrad: “The Russians will march through Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and the corridor will reach St. Petersburg. And these three Baltic hooligans will be finished”.
@romualdaskuzborskis
@romualdaskuzborskis Рік тому
@@alexstorm2749 yeah well, we are 2 months in and it seems that the only place russians are going is back home in the form of G-200..And they did not even fought NATO :D
@alexstorm2749
@alexstorm2749 Рік тому
@@romualdaskuzborskis Maybe your constant anti-Russia propaganda forgot to tell you about it, but the transit issue had been settled in Russia’s favour and it’s not even being discussed right now. Don’t get too salty over it, ok? Cause everybody knows that the ONLY purpose of your existence is a chihuahua barking at the elephant. 😂
@Joesolo13
@Joesolo13 Рік тому
@@alexstorm2749 lmao more russians for Hell
@Mladjasmilic
@Mladjasmilic Рік тому
As for Kaliningrad, a suggest West Berlin solution, as Kaliningrad now acts as West Berlin until 1990.
@Carewolf
@Carewolf Рік тому
They would first have to build an airbridge to win that priviledge.
@br0k3nman
@br0k3nman Рік тому
Are you another Serbia who also practiced genocide like the Russians are doing again?
@Stanko418
@Stanko418 Рік тому
@@Carewolf SLAVA RUSIMA!! BRACA!!!
@browngreen933
@browngreen933 Рік тому
Good information, thanks!
@21boxhead
@21boxhead Рік тому
WILLIAM SKIPS HISTORICAL FACTS AND PUTS THE USUAL FAKE NEWS BULLSHIT
@browngreen933
@browngreen933 Рік тому
@@21boxhead What did he leave out?
@21boxhead
@21boxhead Рік тому
@@browngreen933 4:52 PEOPLE OF CRIMEA VOTED TO LEAVE UKRAINE AND JOIN RUSSIA WILLIAM JUST BASICALLY SKIPS THIS FACT AND BASICALLY SAYS "PUTIN'S FORCES SWOOPED INTO CRIMEA" AS IF THE VOTING NEVER HAPPENED OTHER VIDEOS OF HIM LYING HIS ASS OFF TWISTING HISTORICAL FACTS
@Disco-Mike
@Disco-Mike 11 місяців тому
U explained the war for us. Thank you very much.
@TheTimer81
@TheTimer81 Рік тому
Tnx for the interesting topic. Until next time.
@keithkuckler2551
@keithkuckler2551 Рік тому
Should have mentioned the Suwalski Gap, that narrow strip of land between Lithuania and Poland. If the Russians did get aggressive that would be the likely target. However with the Polish army on one side, and, the Lituanians on the other, it is hard to see any chance of that becoming a war zone.
@Lejaxsharisa
@Lejaxsharisa Рік тому
Lithuania has around 50,000 rubbish equipped army. Government stole everything from army. My dad defended Lithuania in 1991 and for what? For those corrupt idiots in government
@normanclatcher
@normanclatcher Рік тому
One point: it's not 'between' Lithuania and Poland. It's 'shared between' Lithuania and Poland.
@pro-Russia
@pro-Russia Рік тому
@@mth9267 Poland has always been violated by everybody in the region, they are not like that 😂
@keithkuckler2551
@keithkuckler2551 Рік тому
@@normanclatcher True, i failed to make it clear, but its name leads one to think that. a narrow corridor or valley that would be the shortest route from Belarus, to Kallingrad. If they were to attack it would be the place.
@Arcaryon
@Arcaryon Рік тому
He can try. As a citizen of NATO, my country and 27 others would support both of them. Well, soon 29 others, since Finland and Sweden are gonna join the club.
@mattpotter7071
@mattpotter7071 Рік тому
I believe this has less to do about warm water ports, but more to do with natural gas reserves, pipe lines, and petro-dollars. Ukraine standing for their independence and developing their reserves was seen as a direct threat to Russias economic power.
@westenkey9532
@westenkey9532 Рік тому
Not so sure about certainly not but it’s definitely a factor as Ukraine discovered reserves 2012-2014 and Russia annexed crimea in 2014 and russias effectively a petrostate as ~30% of their economy is oil and gas but also Russia is also an imperialistic nation currently and historically so preventing western spread is beneficial to Russia as to protect its identity and pockets overall I would say there is no one right answer
@Robert53area
@Robert53area Рік тому
This is why the United States funded to over throw yanokovich yes, to hurt ukraine and russia bottom dollar. The leader of that plan was Joe biden and Hillary Clinton.
@Robert53area
@Robert53area Рік тому
@@westenkey9532 crimea was an autonomous republic within the borders of ukraine, and when the euromaiden crisis and over throw of yanokovich, crimea was free to declare independence which it did.
@edvsilas8281
@edvsilas8281 Рік тому
Matt, Russia' s primary interest in Ukraine,and it has been stated ad infinitum by Putin , is not for economic reasons but strategic security (no NATO presence in Ukraine) and the protection of the Russian regions of Donetsk and Lugansk.
@yandespar3490
@yandespar3490 Рік тому
The theory about natural gas reserves is deeply flawed because it doesn't take into consideration long colonial history of the region. Russian leaders expressed that they can't become a world power without Ukraine multiple times starting at least with the last century. apart from colonial narratives, it was about food. You can how they use world hunger as leverage today. Since russians see themselves as the other major power of the world that opposes USA, they want to re-establish their influence over ex-soviet states at the least and, possibly, over half of Europe. As for the gas, they have quite a plenty of it themselves and quite a developed infrastructure to supply it to Europe. And now they don't have any technologies to develop potential reserves in Ukraine, no investments to develop infrastructure and Europe that decided to slowly stop buying their energy resources. Their imperial ambitions prevailed over economic pragmatism
@robertharrington2658
@robertharrington2658 Рік тому
Well presented, 👍
@dorismartir316
@dorismartir316 Рік тому
Good info, thanks.
@bigdikdude4207
@bigdikdude4207 Рік тому
Hello from Kaliningrad! ;)
@raidoha9190
@raidoha9190 Рік тому
Hello
@djappnew
@djappnew Рік тому
Privet druz'ya! I dont hate the people just the system
@theol1044
@theol1044 Рік тому
What you are showing at 2:23 is Baltiysk, the former German city Pillau and now home of the Russian Baltic fleet, in the Kaliningrad Oblast, not the city of Kaliningrad itself.
@RANDP117
@RANDP117 Рік тому
As a german customs official, I gotta ad that it is right now also forbidden for trucks under RU or BY registration to pass through the EU. That makes supplying Kaliningrad on roads much more difficult.
@dutchsailor6620
@dutchsailor6620 10 місяців тому
At least it makes the roads a lot safer.
@paulreinertson918
@paulreinertson918 10 місяців тому
Thanks!
@slartybarfastb3648
@slartybarfastb3648 Рік тому
I think Lithuania is a border too far for Russia. Poland WILL enter the war if Belarus or Russia makes a move on Lithuania. With, or without, NATO. In fact, I think the only reason Poland hasn't already entered the war is because of NATO. Belarussian military exercises near the northwest border of Ukraine are reason enough. The days of watching Russian movements and provocations are over. We all see where that leads. Any aggressive move by Russia or it's proxies should trigger a well prepared response BEFORE they launch their attack. The time for diplomacy has passed.
@creesmith2794
@creesmith2794 Рік тому
Preemptive attacks are the fastest way to start a preventable war my guy.
@777chicha777
@777chicha777 Рік тому
I agree. I really hope Europe attacks Russia with all they got and Russia just drops it's nukes on Europe. It's a war no one can win and thus no one wants to start it. Simple. I agree with you that the only reason Poland hasn't started a war is because of Nato, ad Nato would not be able to manage the backlash from Russia if it does and Poland would be blamed for the annihilation of Europe (including Russia)
@SerBallister
@SerBallister Рік тому
@@creesmith2794 Like Pearl Harbour? ;)
@danekender5332
@danekender5332 Рік тому
Although you make some excellent points, Let Russia make the First move! Then it will be justified..
@demontrader1222
@demontrader1222 Рік тому
I don t think the Russians will back down. NATO started this. Russia will finish it.
@angelaalston4180
@angelaalston4180 Рік тому
On Oct. 10, 1977 ,soccer fans in Vilnius , greeted a visiting Russian soccer team from Smolensk with chants of "Katsapy , Katsapy ! ", the Lithuanian derogatory term for Russians . They also chanted "Russians go home ! " . My source is Peoples Almanac #2 .
@psy-lion
@psy-lion Рік тому
Yes, because no one invited them on the Baltic land
@bobapbob5812
@bobapbob5812 Рік тому
Kaatsap is also the term used by Ukrainians for Russians.
@42carlos
@42carlos Рік тому
@@bobapbob5812 Let me add that it means "slaughterer" or "butcher" in Slavic languages.
@schizou
@schizou Рік тому
Ethics issue
@majk5995
@majk5995 Рік тому
@@bobapbob5812 it's a pretty universal term for Russians lmao we use it on polish as well
@MasterFlopy
@MasterFlopy Рік тому
Important thing to note here.. if you look at electicity export and import for lithuania.. it is actualy importing and selling electicity from Russia to poland.
@flexltu
@flexltu Рік тому
As of 2022 May, they are no longer importing electricity, gas or oil from ruzzia.
@SoapBoxMediaTV
@SoapBoxMediaTV Рік тому
well presented
@emilmills9553
@emilmills9553 Рік тому
I say Lithuania will more than likely cut the tracks if Russia keeps going the way they are
@danekender5332
@danekender5332 Рік тому
As they should!! 🇱🇹 ✊️
@elmermatthew6796
@elmermatthew6796 Рік тому
By then, Lithuania is no more. No one in the sane mind wants to fight Russia knowing what they could do. It would be just like Ukraine, giving aids only.
@rishikeshdora4594
@rishikeshdora4594 Рік тому
Then it will be lost from the earth lol
@Day537
@Day537 Рік тому
@@rishikeshdora4594 when Putin threatens, everyone concludes it to military war. If Lithuania has anything exported from Russia, then that's where the dominoes will start.
@janestones323
@janestones323 Рік тому
@@danekender5332 Big mistake! Be close to your bad neighbours than friends to the distant ones!
@revinhatol
@revinhatol Рік тому
Oh, this just in: Ukrainians support the Czechian annexation of Kaliningrad.
@petershestakov5255
@petershestakov5255 Рік тому
Thank you for objective video. It's pretty rare these days
@robvig60
@robvig60 Рік тому
For many “Kaliningrad” will always be Königsberg.
@judehylton9692
@judehylton9692 Рік тому
That belongs to Gremany. These Russians just think they can walk over and steal whatever they want.
@Damian-cilr1
@Damian-cilr1 Рік тому
or for poles Królewiec lol.yep thats literally the polish name for Königsberg
@riccardodececco4404
@riccardodececco4404 Рік тому
@@Damian-cilr1 like the correct German name for Wroclaw is Breslau - and for Szczecin it is Stettin, and for Olsztyn it is Allenstein - the Poles should better never forget this while tinkering with international politics.
@Orangevirus
@Orangevirus Рік тому
Or for Lithuanians - Karaliaučius
@riccardodececco4404
@riccardodececco4404 Рік тому
@Dan Beech no, because Roma/Rome or Naples/Napoli had never for a thousand years an English speaking population. Nor were they founded by English speakers.
@compatriot852
@compatriot852 Рік тому
In the case of Kalingrad (Lithuania minor), it was once a region heavily populated with Prussian Lithuanians. It was a crucial region to Lithuanian language and culture as people risked their lives smuggling literature and documents from the Russian government who was trying to colonize the region and exterminate it during the tsardom. The Russian population there is fairly recent and almost entirely military after they genocided the local population. In Lithuania proper, a similar situation was playing out, but luckily the Forest brother guerillas were able to fend off the Russian efforts after they invaded Lithuania again along with the other Baltic states
@MantasasInHD
@MantasasInHD Рік тому
@dear dear ya cant read?
@TarpgalaktinisShvancas
@TarpgalaktinisShvancas Рік тому
@dear dear well the geoicide part explains it no?
@saidalasgarov4971
@saidalasgarov4971 Рік тому
During Tsardom Kaliningrad wasn't even within Russia
@Scheiseposter
@Scheiseposter Рік тому
Lithuanians were gone from there by 19th century. Ethnically Lithuanians were minority due to Prussians pushing Lithuanians out and settling themselves there after 3rd partition. And that land never belong to Lithuania to begin with.
@kba8548
@kba8548 Рік тому
They weren't Prussian Lithuanians but Prussian Balts surely?
@user-hx2ch7pd2b
@user-hx2ch7pd2b Рік тому
At its core, historical circumstances make the two cases incomparable.
@irrelevant_noob
@irrelevant_noob Рік тому
1:02 Luckily, the 3 months waiting time starts on MARCH 15th, not May 15th. :-B Also, it's "exports" only from the Russian perspective, from the EU's it's a ban on IMPORTS. ^^
@rickeras
@rickeras Рік тому
Was waiting for lines on maps
@Gametheory101
@Gametheory101 Рік тому
Another time, I promise!
@benjaminkurilla3943
@benjaminkurilla3943 Рік тому
Throughout history, exclaves on the Baltic coast had often lead to war. WW II is the latest example.
@haruthaiarayawong6257
@haruthaiarayawong6257 Рік тому
I've been in Poland passing thru East Germany just before the fall of the iron curtain. "Brothers" probably means in the Russian language: extreme poverty and people scared for Western Europeans. Nowadays, I think there are few "brothers" in former eastern bloc countries left (maybe Hungarians) who have fond memories of their Russian "brothers". That was really a scary and depressive experience!
@godmode8687
@godmode8687 Рік тому
My mother is from the ddr. Ehe Always says russia was bot a friend Nation, but a brother Nation. As you can choose friends, and noone would choose russia.
@godmode8687
@godmode8687 Рік тому
Ehe Always says russia was bot... New web Layout doesnt let me edit and correct my reply ;/
@ItsaRomethingeveryday
@ItsaRomethingeveryday Рік тому
I hope none of the current conflicts lead to ww3, there are far too many people in this world for it to be ok ever for deployment of anything nuclear, may God 🙏 protect us all
@danekender5332
@danekender5332 Рік тому
😁🍻 Absolutely 💯 correct..
@sirmiles1820
@sirmiles1820 Рік тому
Sadly, we might aswell. With the current global leaders and how dictators acting up from South China Sea, India and Europe.
@mrdrone4253
@mrdrone4253 Рік тому
your god can't give anyone a hang nail let alone help prevent ww3
@d.p.2680
@d.p.2680 Рік тому
I hope that Kaliningrad emerges as an independent nation after all of this, not that they need to rush into EU nor NATO, but to make a balance in the area, and maybe in a distant future move closer to their neighbors.
@user-hn5tg1lq7q
@user-hn5tg1lq7q Рік тому
Cringe.
@invisibleUser416
@invisibleUser416 11 місяців тому
Kaliningrad should be a part of Germany again.
@user-hn5tg1lq7q
@user-hn5tg1lq7q 11 місяців тому
@@invisibleUser416 Kaliningrad should be remain in Russia.
@Sebastian-sd1om
@Sebastian-sd1om 11 місяців тому
​@@user-hn5tg1lq7q ruzzians would rather suck The toes of The Kremlin than fight for Self determination and Independence. Living in shit and suffering makes them "masculine" and Proud :D Serf mentality.
@dutchsailor6620
@dutchsailor6620 10 місяців тому
@@user-hn5tg1lq7q Its not in ruSSia to start with.
@spiritoflegend7483
@spiritoflegend7483 Рік тому
I really hope nothing happens cause I have a friend that lives in Lithuania
@bamf6603
@bamf6603 Рік тому
me too
@danrook5757
@danrook5757 Рік тому
One friend?
@ghg0709
@ghg0709 Рік тому
2:11 thats picture of the dutch ships
@Gametheory101
@Gametheory101 Рік тому
I know "Why Putin Didn't 'Cause' the War (But He Is Responsible for It)" won this week's vote, but then the Kaliningrad thing happened, so we're going with this for the week. I've scripted the Putin/cause video, though, so that's definitely happening soon. Also, with any luck, the digital version of my Ukraine book will be released next week!
@slartybarfastb3648
@slartybarfastb3648 Рік тому
I'd appreciate a video retrospective at the activities of Russia's FSB and GRU in the immediate years and decade following the Soviet collapse. I think we get too wrapped up in current events to appreciate how we got here. History leads to the present and everything in the present is easier to understand with a look back at those tumultuous years from 1993 to 2001. Those were the years which laid the groundwork for where we are today.
@ItsaRomethingeveryday
@ItsaRomethingeveryday Рік тому
appreciate the info and content, one only a handful that we watch, Liked, and also just subscribed
@MDCDiGiPiCs
@MDCDiGiPiCs Рік тому
Great content William, thanks for putting in the effort.
@arisplugis5197
@arisplugis5197 Рік тому
the big difference is that Russia can use international waters to supply Kaleningrad. Lithuania have no obligations to allow using their railway for logistical conveniences of geopolitical enemy.
@MikeOxlong-
@MikeOxlong- Рік тому
Cool, except you may wish to revise that topic of him ‘not’ causing the war - unless you were trying to be punny! 😄 I’m smiling - but serious though...
@randomname1251
@randomname1251 Рік тому
New video! Love the info, the channel, but kinda hate the precarious situation. How do you think Finland/Sweden will overcome Turkey’s veto of NATO membership? *Will* they overcome it? Also, why did NATO expand membership to the small nations of the Baltics, North Macendonia, etc? What was the advantage they brought to the alliance that overrode the threat of Russian aggression turning into a confrontation?
@jpablo700
@jpablo700 Рік тому
Resources and peace in the area
@Gametheory101
@Gametheory101 Рік тому
I also have mixed feelings now that the channel has become popular. (Or more accurately mixed feelings about *why* it has become popular.) Turkey is just looking for a concession, and they will get it. The Baltics are super important strategically. NATO now flanks Kaliningrad because of them.
@randomname1251
@randomname1251 Рік тому
@@Gametheory101 But what about some of the Eastern European countries like Croatia, Albania, Czech Republic? Adding those countries to the alliance commits other NATO members to their defense, but I don’t see the advantage to the former members? Considering that great powers are not really into altruism on the int’l political stage, there must have been a benefit. Trying to understand what it was.
@highphysics3617
@highphysics3617 Рік тому
All those little countries created an"invisible"wall of security. Alone.....potential "land grab" for Putin....together,an impenetrable safety zone. Thank goodness.
@highphysics3617
@highphysics3617 Рік тому
@@Gametheory101 Why so popular? Easy...your presentation is superb. The information you share is excellent,with no wishy washy predictions to encourage "click bait" . Yes,I've liked subscribed,and,shared. Keep up the good work. Super channel.😘😘🦘
@Larsbor
@Larsbor Рік тому
I would like to see an independent Kaliningrad. Smaller countries means smaller wars when there are disputes. Peace
@gobot4455
@gobot4455 Рік тому
Kalinengrad, Konigsberg what's a difference in names to opposing nations?
@feuerwerkisttoll2935
@feuerwerkisttoll2935 Рік тому
Königsberg is the old name Kaliningrad the new.Like St Petersburg was Leningrad
@highphysics3617
@highphysics3617 Рік тому
Putin would not dare attack Lithuania. He knows what the outcome would be. Admiration for Lithuania. They made sure by checking with the EU before taking action regarding sanctions against Russia. They are a tiny nation, that Putin would love to gobble up,but,thankfully they remain waaay out of reach being a member of NATO. It's so sad that it didn't happen for Ukraine, so many years ago,and,not being a political genius,I still don't understand why??? Perhaps there is someone here who can enlighten me without being too SMART. Well done Lithuania. Stand your ground,and shrug off the Putin"gabble".
@danekender5332
@danekender5332 Рік тому
Corruption is the only reason.. You make excellent points though..
@tatianavorobiova8015
@tatianavorobiova8015 Рік тому
Putin doesn't care about outcome.
@krzheph7373
@krzheph7373 Рік тому
They are trouble makers mate - would you risk nuclear war so that a pesky "country " ( it only has less than 500,000 in its capital - thats like less than a small village in China ) can grandstand around the world? Last year it was taunting the CCP and this year its poking the Russian bear. Its irresponsible and war mongering little countries like this that could pull the world into nuclear war. They should act with sensitivity. We have only one planet and tiny little countries like these think they can go around stirring up trouble left right and center.
@iammrchetan
@iammrchetan Рік тому
It's no Lithuania's decision, that all is coming from USA/EU.
@ayoCC
@ayoCC Рік тому
Ukraine had a treaty with Russia and US that if they did not make Nuclear weapons and stayed neutral they would not be invaded and have their sovereignty guaranteed.
@Fogaata
@Fogaata Рік тому
Very informative thank you!
@jimc6481
@jimc6481 11 місяців тому
Excellent ....Thank you from the states. Be strong Europe!
@joblo341
@joblo341 Рік тому
You mentioned that Ukraine blocked water to Crimea in 2014. I have not seen any mention of whether russia has done anything to restore that flow to Crimea since they took over southern Ukraine during this war. Have you?
@joelcolyer2240
@joelcolyer2240 Рік тому
They have
@joblo341
@joblo341 Рік тому
@@joelcolyer2240 Thanks.
@ExodentalCADAcademyofNorth
@ExodentalCADAcademyofNorth Рік тому
Lithuanian and Russian dispute will never end. There is only one historical solution, like on mad Max Thunderdome: "Two Men Enter, One Man Leaves"
@datsunlambchops4624
@datsunlambchops4624 Рік тому
So if that is the case. Save the fight and give it to Russia.
@realpolitics527
@realpolitics527 Рік тому
@@datsunlambchops4624 only that its not just one man on lithuania side. Its whole of nato
@5.45x39_
@5.45x39_ Рік тому
That was the only way until nukes were invented. Now if you have nukes you can at least attempt to remain sovereign from both west and east
@datsunlambchops4624
@datsunlambchops4624 Рік тому
@@realpolitics527 That wasn't the statement. It didn't say Nato, it said Lithuania.
@realpolitics527
@realpolitics527 Рік тому
@@datsunlambchops4624 the ground reality is that lithuania isn't alone its part of nato. Individually, every single european country is militarily weaker than russia. Only the US is stronger. That's why many european nations joined nato. Lithuania is not alone in a wrestling ring with russia.
@28reinvent
@28reinvent Рік тому
Excellent
@rapper4orty2
@rapper4orty2 Рік тому
After seeing this video it makes sense
@jacquesbeliveau2716
@jacquesbeliveau2716 Рік тому
Must keep a close eye on Russia intentions to retaliate in Lithuania. Follow the land movement of the vehicle transporting the missiles toward the border. Intercepting this convoy before getting to close would be an option among others.
@josiasamaya4301
@josiasamaya4301 Рік тому
U need to think before you speak.... That will be ww3 = to nuclear attacks, Dead to you and probably everyone in the West don't you think....😔
@ExodentalCADAcademyofNorth
@ExodentalCADAcademyofNorth Рік тому
it's a small region fully packed with everything to march to Berlin and back since 2000's. Tactical and strategic nukes, combined air and ballistic missile defense, electronic warfare, paratroopers, special forces, armadas of main battle tanks and battalions of self propelled, towed and rocket artillery. It has been constantly kept to be able to defend autonomously and to initiate attack westwards since 1950's.
@Arcaryon
@Arcaryon Рік тому
Lithuania is part of NATO. What worries me are military exercises of Belarus at its border to Ukraine, happening as we speak. For obvious reasons, I don’t trust them one bit.
@ExodentalCADAcademyofNorth
@ExodentalCADAcademyofNorth Рік тому
@@Arcaryon Bialorus is not a problem itself even only for Lithuanian armed forces. Would cost badly destroyed capital Vilnius and ~10-30% of active personal but even being 4x populous Bialorus has no means to fight conventional warfare because it is more dedicated for internal oppression and suppression of native population. But talking about involvement of RF we would get sadly a mix of Mariupol and Bucha. Like years before in 1939-1941 . Nothing new.
@Arcaryon
@Arcaryon Рік тому
@@ExodentalCADAcademyofNorth No, you don’t understand: I am worried Belarus could directly invade Ukraine instead of just letting Russia use it as a staging ground for the war.
@deivydask3611
@deivydask3611 Рік тому
As Lithuanian my best guess would be that Russia would punish Lithuanian very hard, but Russia is very busy right now with other much bigger issues so we are good for now
@cantinadudes
@cantinadudes Рік тому
Yea and lithuania is in NATO, so he wont attack
@Rudy97
@Rudy97 Рік тому
Yeah, the war in Ukraine makes people in the Baltic states feel safer.
@tompoessy
@tompoessy Рік тому
thwy didnt decide to just keep kaliningrad, it was already part of rsfsr before 1991, all the republics just kept the same land after independence
@neurofiedyamato8763
@neurofiedyamato8763 Рік тому
What exactly was the reason for Ukraine no longer leasing the port though?
@Aron-ru5zk
@Aron-ru5zk Рік тому
Because they want to use it for themselves I imagine, odesa has been struggling to keep up with Ukrainian exports for decades.
@MerrickKing
@MerrickKing Рік тому
I'd love to see a video on whether or not Kaliningrad might secede. From what I can tell, they have pretty fertile land, a lot of their population is friendly with Lithuania and Poland, and one article even suggested that Russians might move there from the neighbouring Baltics and Poland and increase the population by an additional million.
@janestones323
@janestones323 Рік тому
You dream! Another provocateur!
@sjonnieplayfull5859
@sjonnieplayfull5859 Рік тому
@@janestones323 says the Russian with a Western name...
@ALMAZ157
@ALMAZ157 Рік тому
There is no movement for secession There was only outlawed “German Autonomy” movement funded by Germany, but they are illegal anyway
@mindaugas884
@mindaugas884 Рік тому
You forgot to mention than in both Crimea and Kaliningrad Russia deported local inhabitants and actually brought people to those lands and gave them the property of the deported ones. Look at the mix of ethnicity of those places before the invasions.
@edvsilas8281
@edvsilas8281 Рік тому
@mindaugas884 You : ''You forgot to mention than in both Crimea and Kaliningrad Russia deported local inhabitants and actually brought people to those lands and gave them the property of the deported ones. Look at the mix of ethnicity of those places before the invasions.'' You better study some Kaliningrad/East Prussian history.The majority of that region were German and fled the region and others were repatriated . Put it in your head that Nazi Germany killed 27 million Russians during their unwelcomed vist in Russia and that the Russians didn't take the Germans kindly when they took East Prussia. Do you appreciate that fact ?
@Masquerade456
@Masquerade456 Рік тому
You also forgot that the USA and Canada are Anglophone exactly like Crimea is. If Russia has to forced out of their colonization, let them annex the USA and Canada as compensation.
@mindaugas884
@mindaugas884 Рік тому
@@Masquerade456 they should not annex anything, they should be reduced to their core. So in Canada and USA case the lands should be given back to natives.
@crinolynneendymion8755
@crinolynneendymion8755 Рік тому
@@edvsilas8281 Stalin's tactics killed most of his own soldiers. Don''t you appreciate the fact of the brutality of the Russian socio-political reality?
@edvsilas8281
@edvsilas8281 Рік тому
@@crinolynneendymion8755 Stalin died 70 years ago .Times change. People change . Or are you frozen in time. ?
@quik478
@quik478 Рік тому
It's not only anout steel, a lot of trucks were held on the border in purposely created jams for a search
@vitaminandreja
@vitaminandreja Рік тому
Brothers? Huh must've missed that part when we were learning about years of lost freedom and occupation....
@peterni2234
@peterni2234 Рік тому
Must’ve missed the part where he was being very sarcastic.
@user-iq3cr3wj4i
@user-iq3cr3wj4i Рік тому
I am Russian in Kaliningrad right now, and we kinda chill here
@algiz21
@algiz21 Рік тому
How about you all go back to Russia proper so the Germans can have their rightful land back
@user-hn5tg1lq7q
@user-hn5tg1lq7q Рік тому
For real.
@gigachad6582
@gigachad6582 Рік тому
Although Russia is preoccupied in Ukraine its not actually investing all that much manpower into Ukraine, im sure if Lithuania wasn't a Nato member Russia wouldn't hesitate to start another "Military operation" but thats not the case
@gigacanno750
@gigacanno750 Рік тому
NATO membership may be keeping Russia's response limited
@gigachad6582
@gigachad6582 Рік тому
@Tyler Phillips yeah I sort of take everything with a grain of salt at this point, no Nation will willing give their exact number of men and weapons for obvious reasons
@777chicha777
@777chicha777 Рік тому
@@gigacanno750 nope. Russia's own military might is what is stopping Russia from going against Nato because the outcome would destroy what Russia would be fighting for. Plus destroying themselves. Thus not making it very important
@gigachad6582
@gigachad6582 Рік тому
@@gigacanno750 Thats true but you can only push a Nation so far especially a powerful nation like Russia, im sure Russia doesn't want to start a world war but they may be willing to try and call nato out for bluffing and cause discord in the EU with some sort of military or more direct and violent escalation towards Lithuania
@danekender5332
@danekender5332 Рік тому
@@777chicha777 exallent point,bwe shall see..
@dragonmerchant
@dragonmerchant Рік тому
yes we are brother. everyone older I know misses the times, maybe only in big cities like vilnius or kaunes theres hate.
@Asbestos_
@Asbestos_ Рік тому
Yeah. Very brotherly of them to ruin our state, kill and persecute our people and destroy our culture. Those who miss those times are just lazy workers who like being told what to do by the government and who refuse to take ANY initiative to make their and other's lives better. All they do is yell and complain. Nothing constructive
@dragonmerchant
@dragonmerchant Рік тому
@@Asbestos_ reminds me of our current times tbh , seems like people didint change
@Asbestos_
@Asbestos_ Рік тому
@@dragonmerchant where do you think the term "soviet mindset" comes from. From people who are refusing to change and help everyone build a free and progressive society. They are so afraid of change that they'd rather keep enduring old hardships than step out of their comfort zone. You have to be insane to miss only having one pair of shoes per season that barely endure it. That you had to spend your entire wage just to buy shitty looking clothes. That you had only one car in a lifetime if you're lucky. That you had to wait in lines for hours to get very simple food. It's hell compared to nowadays Nowadays you don't have anyone assign you to work, you have to actually look for work yourself. You have to compete, you have potential and opportunities to reach for the top and go be whoever you want to be. That is freedom that vatniks take for granted
@dragonmerchant
@dragonmerchant Рік тому
@@Asbestos_ im talking about obeying the government like its the god
@Asbestos_
@Asbestos_ Рік тому
@@dragonmerchant yeah, but this time it's OUR government that looks out for us. Of course we shouldn't worship them, but the least we can do is cooperate in things which are reasonable. We should look past the "oh we don't like them" or "ugh it's inconvenient for me" and look at the broader picture. Perhaps the decision helps someone in need or it is the only available option at the time. Maybe it's the best for everyone no matter how inconvenient (for example covid rules). A healthy society thinks not only about each other, but also about injustice happening inside and outside of their country.
@irinamat4175
@irinamat4175 10 місяців тому
In 1945 Potsdam Conference in Potsdam, Germany made a decision to transfer Kоningsberg / now Kaliningrad/ from Germany to USSR. This document was sighed by Truman, Stalin & Churchill. There was a redistribution of the World after the WWII
@Vit-Pokorny
@Vit-Pokorny Рік тому
On the Czech subreddit its a meme that we should annex it and finally gain access to sea.
@herptek
@herptek Рік тому
What is dangerous about the Kaliningrad question is the betting on the dynamics of escalation. Russia might count on it to be able to overcome the the tiny Baltic states before NATO could effectively respond. If it does it catches NATO in a politically precarious situation, where NATO will have to counter-attack enmasse through or around likely nuclear armed Kaliningrad. It will have to be able to assign responsibility to each of its members to actually carry such an attack out, possibly resulting in disunity in NATOs ranks. Russia would control the dynamics of escalation from such a tactically defensive vantage point, which could play against the opposing multi-national alliance whose members would likely be concerned about the prospect of global nuclear war despite their commitment to defend their member states.
@realpolitics527
@realpolitics527 Рік тому
If it was that simple, russia would have done by now.
@herptek
@herptek Рік тому
@@realpolitics527 It can happen precisely to the degree to which it is not politically simple at all. Ambiguity introduces uncertainty and under conditions of uncertainty escalations are possible and wars can happen. The same kind of calculation about disunity of western opposition just recently led to the invasion of Ukraine.
@compatriot852
@compatriot852 Рік тому
The thing is Russia can't. Lithuania is much more rugged with multiple densely packed forests and swamps and difficult to blitz than the flatlands of Ukraine. That's why Russia's best option is to invade Poland first and cut off Lithuania
@herptek
@herptek Рік тому
​@@compatriot852 They can't overcome a military force as formidable as that of Poland without significantly larger force than the one that initially invaded Ukraine. Further difficulty would be that initial gains on open terrain would be difficult to defend against a counter-offensive. The forces Russia has in immediate readiness without mobilization are sufficiently large for them to consider the possibility of overwhelming the smaller Baltic nations before they are able to fully mobilize. They might at first try to do it the same way as they occupied Crimea If possible and then to grind the encircled stragglers down with superior numbers and firepower. In the latter case the Russians would be far more difficult to dislodge and the Suwalki gap to restore to NATO control than a salient of more open terrain on the Polish side of the border would. The Russians could also hope to keep the Polish military out of the conflict a few possibly crucial days longer, after which the prospect of counter attack would possibly turn into a nightmarishly difficult operation.
@flexltu
@flexltu Рік тому
@@herptek maybe, but with Sweden and Finland joining NATO, the Suwalki gap looses it's tactical value. Sure, it would burden the support from the West, but it would still leave the Northern side open. And with the performance we are witnessing in Ukraine, it is debatable if russia would be able to take the Suwalki gap at all.
@peterxyz3541
@peterxyz3541 Рік тому
“Blocking Russian export”…there is truth to that; but, there’s also a “smaller truth” of “we don’t want to deal with you, a bully, nor will we work with anyone else who will deal with you”. Rearranging the wording, it drives home the sense of “you started this shit, take responsibility for the consequences”
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