Why Russia Miscalculated in Ukraine: A Self-Inflicted Disaster in Three Acts
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День томуCheck out my book "What Caused the Russia-Ukraine War": amzn.to/3HY5aqW. You can also read it for free by signing up for a Kindle Unlimited trial at amzn.to/3QMsBr8. (These are affiliate links, meaning I earn a commission when you make a transaction through them. This means that even if you read for free, you are still supporting the channel.)
Why did Russia miscalculate so badly in its invasion of Ukraine? The answer is more than two decades in the making. Putin's Persistent and intentional decay of Russia's institutions made it impossible for Russia's intelligence community and military to provide quality information to him. Facing the uncertainty---and wagering that it would take a true disaster for it have a deep effect on him personally---Putin pulled the trigger.
0:00 Introduction
2:01 Putin's Rise to Power
4:54 The FSB Sets the Stage
6:11 How Would the West Respond?
10:20 How Resolved Was Ukraine?
13:59 The Military's Optimism
19:35 Pravda (The Truth)
25:27 Putin Pulls the Trigger
26:32 Russian Success Was Plausible
26:55 Bad Luck
29:05 Lack of Blowback
30:43 The COVID Pandemic
31:24 Putin's Illness
35:19 Easter Eggs
The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.
Media licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/...
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From Duma.gov.ru:
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From government.ru:
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Media licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/...
From RIA Novosti:
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From US Secretary of Defense:
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From Minister-President Rutte:
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From European People's Party:
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From Dmitriy Pichugin:
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@Gametheory101 Рік тому
Small correction at 19:22: The fall of the U.S.-backed government in Afghanistan occurred in 2021, not 2022. And 26:16 is “Siberia”, not “Serbia”. Though I do wonder if a hypothetical ice fisher in Serbia is also aware of Russian corruption.
@tnndll4294 Рік тому
Russian Neo-cons: Never met a conflict they didn't like. Never met a dictator they didn't like. fact.
@tnndll4294 Рік тому
I hope Russia falls off a cliff.
@y.israel922 Рік тому
😇 = 🇺🇸 Hope that's make you happy Why don't you just shut up and keep quiet 🐕
@lizanderson1669 Рік тому
Russian corruption LMAO you mean USA/Ukraine corruption
@GronTheMighty Рік тому
I'm fairly sure that in fact 'most' ice fishers in Serbia are aware of Russian corruption, and likely ice fishers across the globe in general as well. I think we have to reach pretty far away from human civilization to find anyone who isn't aware. Or accept the pretence of lacking awareness as an actual lack of awareness. That aside, it's always good to see a youtuber bothering to make even minor corrections, kudos to you on that :)
@stormwolf3255 Рік тому
With respect to the ice-cream seller woman, Putin has a rent-a-crowd set of 'trusted employees' ready to dress in the outfit of the day. The same people have been seen at other events dressed as fishermen, soldiers and anywhere Putin is seen interacting with 'the Russian people'. The BBC had an article on their news site a few weeks back.
@taggart64 Рік тому
🤣🤣are you for real, Joe biden has used the corruption within Ukraine to try and push the WEF global governance. Don't worry Vlad and Russia will end the 3 sea project
@Blackadder75 Рік тому
it doesn't get more soviet than that, the whole system has always been a fraud on every level. The western system is far from perfect but it is a 1000 times better
@menghuakin8574 Рік тому
Even pop has security guard, what U expect. Be real pro!
@purplehz97 Рік тому
Theatre. Just like China & North Korea. Gotta love those commies.
@RCXDerp Рік тому
@@menghuakin8574 that whale must do some mean krav maga or something
@dchiznit209 Рік тому
I was watching the HBO series Chernobyl, during the first episode, everyone was downplaying how bad the explosion was even while witnessing the effects of extreme radiation poisoning in front of them, they still downplayed everything in order for the party to look good. I think that thought process never went away.
@UGNAvalon Рік тому
@Don Cuyson The problem with using that show as a comparison is that the show writers intentionally magnified the strength & speed of the radiation while maintaining (or even amplifying) the incompetence of the leaders, all for dramatic effect. Off the top of my head: the smoke was white instead of black, the spotlight was fainter, the forest died after months instead of days, the first firefighters got itchy hands days after handling graphite instead of 3rd-degree burns within minutes, the “he’s just delusional” supervisor actually spent years defending the reputation of his scapegoated subordinates, etc. The tvtropes page has more details. EDIT for those who aren't understanding: It's easier for leadership to downplay the silent dangers of radioactive contamination when the visible signs are subtle (first responders getting mildly itchy hands after a few days, trees taking months to die, etc); by speeding up the timetable of the radiation damage so rapidly (third degree burns within minutes, entire forests dying overnight, violent vomiting mere minutes after the explosion, etc) it makes the otherwise-plausible denial of the incident's danger into cartoonishly dumb willing-blindness. - If the actual Chernobyl incident happened as it did in the series, and the leadership _Still_ acted like it was nothing, then it'd be more plausible to say "denying the obvious is a decades-long tradition in Russian politics". But it didn't, so we can't say that the dramatized depiction of Chernobyl is "proof" that Russian leaders have a history of denying the obvious.
@dchiznit209 Рік тому
@@UGNAvalon understandable, but I think the sentiment holds though, downplay any potential problems and be yes men even if the potential problems are smacking them in the face
@hypercrack7440 Рік тому
Every Major Country does, Yes no surprises here, ask the Chinese 😂😂
@meeeka Рік тому
@Don Cuyson It is a thought process from before Peter the Great's shakeup of the boyars, forcing them to shave their beards --as a lesser order all the way to forcing the clans to move to Pitr, if they wanted to keep their properties, riches and positions. Boyars/Nobles/Party Bosses--that entire layer of the cake were very canny about telling the Tsar/tsarina/ Party Gensec unpleasant news. Ivan the Terrible killed his own son for disagreeing with him and from that down to the Bolshies, no one was ever willing to challenging or contradicting whatever the guy on the throne declared his chosen reality.
@alexanderwu Рік тому
Oh I thought you meant the documentary was downplaying The explosion and was very confused for a minute
@matthewhuszarik4173 11 місяців тому
Ukraine and Afghanistan couldn’t be more different. One failed battle didn’t stop Russia in Ukraine. The Ukrainians were willing to fight to the end to protect their families and country. Despite everyone telling them they didn’t have a chance.
@robertstennett7566 5 місяців тому
Everyone was right the Ukrainians did not have a chance they never did. They have lost the war, they have lost 500,000 young men a whole generation. The tragic thing is Ukraine brought this war on themselves by killing 14,000 of their own citizens that lived in Eastern Ukraine, the invasion was made to stop the killing of the citizens of Eastern Ukraine. Zelensky could of stopped the war, 2 years ago in Istanbul he signed a peace agreement with the Russians that would have stopped the war. The USA and UK talked him out of implementing the agreement. So all this misery they are suffering is self inflicted by their leader Zelensky. The 14,000 count of the people killed in Eastern Ukraine by the Ukrainian Government statistics is on the United Nations website. In case you did not know about all this is because the US government lies to it's citizens and the major news networks knowingly broadcast the government lies.
@azizithelethargic9229 3 місяці тому
I implore you, do not compare Afghanistan, to an extent Afghans, with* Ukraine. It sounds very wrong.
@matthewhuszarik4173 3 місяці тому
@@azizithelethargic9229 What does “couldn’t be more different” mean?
@azizithelethargic9229 3 місяці тому
@@matthewhuszarik4173 My mistake, but, it's a useful reminder to those who would later reply to you here. Again, my bad.
@matthewhuszarik4173 3 місяці тому
@@azizithelethargic9229 No problem I just was wondering if there was some reason I shouldn’t contrast how the Ukrainians responded to the Russian invasion and Afghanistan responded to the Taliban wanting to take back over?
@SuperEugene1956 11 місяців тому
Living in Ukraine I am aware of the information you have presented in this video. An excellent summary of events and has brought back vivid memories of waking up on February 24 and finding out that we had been invaded.. I have remained in Ukraine despite advice from the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs. It is a matter of conscience to remain here and help a count.ry that gave me permanent residence.
@eric.loves.to.fish1 11 місяців тому
@@apocalypse-now A) 14,000 died in Donbass? Plse supply the source of info. B) Even if above is true, none of Russia's business to go and grab Ukrainian land. It's not Russia's land in case you don't understand the concept of 'sovereignty' . Yep, Ukraine is a sovereign country as according to the UN Charter. No wonder practically the whole world condemned Russia's invasion and its land-grabbing. And yep, its leader putin is a thug and a robber. Not to mention a killer.
@lillibitjohnson7293 11 місяців тому
Thank you for helping as much as you can
@digital827111 10 місяців тому
I am sure the women and children of the Donbass felt the same way when your nazis poured artillery barrages upon them for the eight years prior. Anyone who watched Oliver Stone's documentary "Ukraine on Fire" knows the truth and are glad retribution is being meted out to these nazis.
@danielgeci4513 10 місяців тому
So you're a Nazi supporter then. Good to know
@marioformosa4259 9 місяців тому
Yes many foreigners have been urging the Ukrainians to fight and die.
@Huvpalto Рік тому
I’m Ukrainian and my grandpa told me a story of a factory in Mykolaiv he worked at while studying when it all was the Soviet Union. A dude died horrifically after being sucked in some machine. Basically turned into pate spread all over the place. And people just kinda literally scrubbed it off the floor walls and machinery and threw it all in a bin, because they had to decorate that hall due to factory directors 30 year anniversary or something and didn’t want to spoil the moment and get punished. So they had their party and then under pressure from unions or something like that were like “oh yeah also a dude died a week ago, here’s the paperwork, it’s all fine, don’t worry about it”. This system of small bosses terrified of bringing bad news to higher ups to not get punished is a core of soviet and now russian bureaucracy. Now imagine that on a government level, in military sector. Tons of officers reporting downplayed casualties and exaggerated wins to colonels, they report those even worse to generals, etc etc until some dude brings Putin a document in red envelope saying that Russia has no losses in the war, they defeated 50 gazillion nazis, 50 himars, etc oh and btw sanctions don’t work, russia economy stronk, it’s the decadent west that suffer themselves and freeze without our gas etc. It’s a system where propaganda is told from top to bottom, but then it festers and goes back up exaggerated… and the funny thing, higher ups believe it themselves because those kissasses are their only source of information. Fascinating really. The typical story of CEO bringing company down by surrounding himself with “yesmen” but on a national scale with global international consequences.
@brooklynlass2196 Рік тому
You are so on point.
@rightside1911 Рік тому
the problem is it is ingrained in russia they have had to lie cheat and steal to survive for so long they no longer see anything wrong with it it goes far back into tsarist times with russian secret police.
@killmozzies Рік тому
Thanks Alex, well said, and easy to read and understand.
@JMM33RanMA Рік тому
Long live free, democratic, independent and sovereign Ukraine. Слава Україні, мужнім захисникам України славна перемога! Путіну і Росії ганьба, вічне прокляття і холодна могила!
@ClickClack_Bam Рік тому
You've also described Ukraine. Russia & Ukraine are some of the most CORRUPT countries in the whole world. Ukraine is guilty of almost the EXACT same bullshit Russia is. The exception in recent times is that there's a serious American propaganda machine that ONLY paints Russia as having losses & Ukraine as ONLY winning. Meanwhile the DEATH count is almost the same on BOTH sides. Ukraine soldiers have raped & murdered Ukrainian women & it's went largely unreported. Ukraine is ABSOLUTELY mobilizing it's citizens to fight while the world thinks it's 100% volunteers. ZELENSKY wanted to join NATO after the US handed him $20 BILLION American taxpayer dollars. He wasn't trying to use any money he stole through corruption. He knows you can't join NATO when in conflict but he tried anyways knowing full well he was ONLY going for the brownie points he'd get when he tried & got denied anyways. Zelensky was warned by American intelligence that Russia was going to invade & he took the whole thing at first as nonsense. There are jokes Zelensky told about Russia "not having the balls to invade Ukraine". Yet most people don't know ANY of this stuff. What a testament to the power of propaganda.
@adamesd3699 Рік тому
We’ve all had the experience in life where we make good decisions, take calculated risks that work out, begin to believe in ourselves, take bigger calculated risks…that blow up in our face. Usually, however, these don’t involve tens of thousands of people dead.
@LuisManuelLealDias Рік тому
hundreds of thousands and counting
@bonchevpetar Рік тому
Usually...
@jakobole Рік тому
A bit like Hitler that became over-confident after the 'ansluss' of Austria and annexation of Sudetenland. He thought he could do nothing wrong, even to be a kind of 'chosen one'.....
@FLOWER-POWER Рік тому
I miscalculated the toxicity and half-life of a burrito fart about the same time Putin was being sworn in for his fourth term. It's still out there causing collateral damage to this day. Lest we forget.
@tereterevanakere2132 Рік тому
they took Arnold's advice and had no plan B
@Mozart22072012 Місяць тому
I must say, this documentary was VERY informative and well maid. Thank you❤
@susiebaka3388 11 місяців тому
thats funny i could never make out the "man on the moon" smiley face until you drew over it with yellow pen at 32:33
@codin4 Рік тому
As a polish I have to note that all post soviet states wanted to join NATO and were doing everything to do so. Every country of the East block hates Russia and communism and it wasn't NATO pushing. The nations wanted safety from russian empire who is always thirsty for blood. We all here just remember what red has done to our ppl. Our heroes were put into mass graves at Katyń and we will never forget and never forgive, just like Ukraine now!
@Architect_777 Рік тому
🤡
@werin117plays3 Рік тому
As a Czech, i must agree
@s5r581 Рік тому
As a Cambodia, I must agree During Khmer rouge 2 million people died because they refuse to be a slave. Pol pot.
@s5r581 Рік тому
@@Architect_777 clown
@Pidalin Рік тому
Mainly, people from former communist countries see that Russia haven't changed and under Putin, they act like tsarist empire again and that's scary for us. Putin was always just a KGB moron for me, you can see it on his face that he is liar and criminal, probably even murderer as a former KGB agent. How the hell could western leaders do some deals with such person? I just don't get it, I was right about him since I started watching politics, I always hated him and he looked always scary to me. You can see how he totaly don't care about lives, he lost like 200 000 soldiers and fall back would mean he lost so he is ok with sending another 200 000 people to death and he doesn't care that it's totaly pointless, what should be result of this stupid war, so he conquer Ukraine and what then? He will be still seen as dictator and west will do even stronger sanctions against him. Isn't better just peacefully trade with Ukraine and have good relation ships and earn money? What Putin is doing doesn't make any sense. Russia could be part of NATO and EU if they wanted, it's their fault that they are seen as enemies now, they chose that. The fact that some western people think that NATO pushed us to beying part of it is just bizar, we obviously entered NATO because we ARE the west and we want to be safe from Russia and not become east again. Our culture and values are western and we really don't want to fall back to Russian sphere of influencem even when you can see many people who want it, you can be sure that vast majority of people don't.
@MisterW0lfe Рік тому
The woman has also been a Fisherman, a mother of a deployed soldier in the meeting with mothers, a churchgoer at a mass, and in several other photos where Putin makes public appearances in recent years
@grahamstrouse1165 Рік тому
Talented lady! 😂
@scp-2348 Рік тому
@@grahamstrouse1165Still not as talented as Johnny Sins.
@scoobydoobers23 Рік тому
Yeah, but the real question is do Russians find it odd that guards pretend to be "the public" for PR? Or is that expected?
@alaeriia01 Рік тому
Either a bodyguard or a mistress.
@defective6811 Рік тому
@@alaeriia01 a mistryguard
@thisbushnell2012 7 місяців тому
At 23:10 or thereabouts the attitude described is what i call Ensign Pulver syndrome. Keep your head down. 'As long as the captain doesn't know I exist, I am safe.'
@jaiclary8423 11 місяців тому
It warms my bitter anti-authoritarian heart to hear all the things that would have to go wrong for Russia's invasion to be a disaster for Russia.
@The_whales 10 місяців тому
It’s not the first time, they had issuing with japan(1914), Poland(end of ww1), Finland(winter war), and Afghanistan(Soviet-afghan war)
@vladimirpootis3200 10 місяців тому
@@The_whalesJapan in 1904 actually.
@StevenCaldwell-ev8br 8 місяців тому
MAn shall reap What he sows! Bible is ALMIGHTY GODS TRUTH. ASK IN PRAYER FOR MORE TO FOLLOW JESUS TEACHINGS! STOP HATE OR BE LATE! IM REMEMBER MY Savior KING GOD OF ALL. CHRISTIAN LOOK UP. UR REDEMPTION DRAWS NEAR!! LOVE GOD HATE SIN.
@MedicalMyke Рік тому
This video has more talented analysis and palatable content in 36 minutes than you might see in 36 days on tv.
@ericluffy7970 Рік тому
Because this is humanity at its finest. Don't just be good at what you do, but love what you do. If there isn't a good mix of money, heart and dedication in every day we punch in then we are doing it wrong.
@Jubel06 Рік тому
36 months for some networks. 36 years for others...
@cosmosofinfinity Рік тому
Somehow all of cable news can't afford a single Spaniel
@EffortlessEthan Рік тому
@@Jubel06 I was gonna say, I think he means 36 years.
@ericluffy7970 Рік тому
@cosmosofinfinity well then it would be news and not just Op-Ed bobble head madness that it has become. Not paid as good I assume, but hopefully having character, integrity and a sould make up for having 1 less 0 in the bank account total amount
@joshm3484 Рік тому
I know why he did, because I did the same thing, though on a much smaller scale. Many people, maybe even most, believe they'd be happy if every time they tried something, it went even better than expected. And it is nice. But when you're always successful and always achieve whatever you want, you start to believe that you can do anything you want, and somehow, magically, despite all evidence and common sense to the contrary, it will still turn out well, because everything always has. Until it doesn't. And let us be frank. If Zelensky had fled or surrendered, Ukraine would almost certainly have fallen in days, and the ever increasing sanctions and weapons aid packages would never have had time to take effect. Zelensky is widely hailed as a hero, but I don't think it is possible to overstate his importance in keeping Ukraine in the fight, and building a sense of unity and purpose in Ukraine that will assure that if anything did happen to him now, Ukraine would continue to fight effectively. This is to say nothing of his political maneuvering, coalition building, and his ability to keep Ukraine in the Western mind. “The fight is here; I need ammunition, not a ride,” whether an actual quote or not, _does_ perfectly summarize Zelensky, and Ukraine in general.
@LRRPFco52 Рік тому
Putin's plan relied on Joe Biden removing Zelensky from Kiev. This would have allowed the Russian "Special Military Operation" to be quickly executed, without much response from the West, just like in Georgia 2008. When Zelensky refused to comply with Biden's evacuation, it left a leader in Kiev who could rally Ukraine to fight, while serving as a legitimate coordinator to receive foreign military articles. Had Zelenensky fled, Ukraine would have collapsed into resistance fighting of an occupier, vs an organized military force under national leadership. This changed everything, since Russia was stopped from taking Kiev and Odessa, and fought back with great effect.
@brianmcnevin1419 Рік тому
Excellent read! Zelenskyy is the 21st Century Winston Churchill. When Churchill died I thought they broke the mould. I feel so fortunate to live in the same time as Zelenskyy.
@weik-2936 Рік тому
Putin started this war to write another chapter in history about how great he was... And in the process he made his opposite a legend
@no59do56 Рік тому
You forget to factor in when American Taxpayers get tired of being fleeced by one of THE MOST CORRUPT. WELL GOD BLESS.
@baltulielkungsgunarsmiezis9714 Рік тому
I think his problem is not using the internet. If Putin used the internet he could get first hand informtion from anywhere and gauge the pulse of the international language groups.
@ianstewart6021 7 місяців тому
Great report mate. Keep going. 👋👋👋
@conradpogorzelski2630 11 місяців тому
Thank you for the information
@loganlabbe9767 Рік тому
This channel makes me feel like when you find out how a magicians trick is performed, except for massive geopolitical events.
@longbeach13 Рік тому
And no matter how many times you block this channels they still pop up in your feed😂 comment against and you get banned 😂 internet wars are more dangerous i see
@aroudedinsulance4307 Рік тому
@@longbeach13 i mean you're doing it now and your comments lasted 5 hours, nice bait though
@kendexter Рік тому
@@longbeach13 U know you can clean cache, delete cookies and set youtube settings on or off to show video's based on your previous search and watched , your problem solved. learn how to internet..lol.. and after that you can go to some channel like RT ,Fox or other Pravda suited for you and or dictators , if you could comment here you are yet not banned nor blocked
@toxikwastedump Рік тому
this is western imperialist propaganda
@tjk3430 Рік тому
@@aroudedinsulance4307 15 hours and counting.
@lavantz345 Рік тому
This is why having a leader that nobody can say no to, or be held accountable for anything, is dangerous for any country.
@g3nng3nn19 Рік тому
That’s why he is a leader , and you an idiot who wants an opinion !
@markiobooker218 Рік тому
How old are you to dare presume to lecture us?
@marianene8073 Рік тому
Yup ...
@smark667 Рік тому
I think the politician class should be retired. Time to let AI run things. Humans are corruptable. Good luck
@joshgordon2484 Рік тому
YOU MEAN, LIKE BIDEN?
@youngpower24 11 місяців тому
Has anybody been reading these new files released on Putins time in the FSB? Turns out he was just a coffee boy for the professional staff and not some hardened FSB lifer with elite skills.
@thedukeofswellington1827 8 місяців тому
Special Considerations of Night Movement is my favorite Bobvrosky Segar song
@zollen123 Рік тому
It is astonishing Putin weren't aware of his country problems and shortcomings before the war. It is as if you were on the job for more than *twenty years* and you knew nothing of your company's problems. This would only be possible if you never went to work to begin with.
@Desmaad Рік тому
A culture of lying will do that to you.
@sirdavidoftor3413 Рік тому
@Stephen Kong: if you watched Perun’s video on Russian lying and corruption, you wouldn’t be surprised. It explains a lot. His channel is on UKposts, and the 1 hour PowerPoint is very well done. He is an Aussie, who works in the logistics field of the military industrial complex. Each week there is a new topic about the war, or armies in particular. As a layman in this field, his research and expertise, is explained in terms that even I can understand. Stay safe, stay sane, stay strong Ukraine 🇺🇦
@stevengordon3271 Рік тому
Nobody tells the emperor he is naked.
@petriew2018 Рік тому
i don't think he was unaware, since whatever you want to say about Putin's morality, i don't think anyone would ever think him unintelligent I think he just disregarded it because he thought sheer overwhelming force would make up for the obvious bullshit in the reports. And let's be honest, most people even in the west kind of assumed the same thing on day 1
@user-uh2it3vz4x Рік тому
裸の王様はえてしてこのようなものだ。はい王様、３日で陥落させます。そうかよしよし！
@khananiel-joshuashimunov4561 Рік тому
That woman in the photo shoot appears any time Putin needs a stand in. She's also the mother of many dead soldiers, and a well respected community leader of many communities. Most of the people in that photo fill the same role.
@razagan1343 Рік тому
any source on that? because I very badly want it to be true.
@NuclearFridge1 Рік тому
Because the "mighty leader" is afraid that someone is going to get close to him with a weapon. A small man scared of his own people.
@daniel_dumile Рік тому
Seriously though do you have a source? I’ve read her connection to a son lost in Ukraine is tenuous at best, but this is saying she and others are a known actor in multiple similar state events? Is FSB this sloppy or are you just being hyperbolic?
@Fortify2030 Рік тому
@@daniel_dumile Its well known in russian-speaking media, many noticed this woman in many meeting with Putin, she as a factory worker, a fish worker, mother of soldier, random person in a church-mesa during Putin's church visit.
@cecasander Рік тому
FSB director: "Agent Natasya, the president needs you by his side, to serve him." Agent Natasya: "Oh, of course I will serve! Will he need a body guard? Or my expertise on counter-terror measures?" FSB director: "No, he needs you to serve him ice cream."
@brutusvonmanhammer 7 місяців тому
24:55 I'm slightly confused by this part. How do you see "tank after tank after tank" sitting around rusting, with no mechanics, and soldiers selling off military equipment to buy alcohol, and then conclude from that information that they were preparing for an invasion?
@Dan-nx9zn 4 місяці тому
Because the tanks had been pulled from storages all over russia to the border and
@Chakradhar52 6 місяців тому
Moral.." one should not chew more than he could swallow"
@lucboulanger8128 Рік тому
A really savvy analysis, enlightening. For those who can read French, a book was recently published by an exiled (Paris) ex-KGB spy, Sergeï Jirnov, who knew Putin as they both worked there at the same time. Titled "L'engrenage", Jirnov offers his appreciation of Putin, describing him as a manipulative thug, not particularly intelligent, but having the knack to always be at the right place at the right time. Putin's career at the KGB was rather lackluster and he was demoted a couple of times for bad judgment. Boris Yeltsin was the one who positioned Putin to become the new Russia Tsar when he appointed him acting president. Putin was never part of a structured political party or had any political doctrine to offer.
@pervertt Рік тому
Just prior to the invasion, there was a lot of speculation on whether the massing of Russian forces near Ukraine's border was part of a giant Putin bluff. He's a smart guy, the thinking went, surely he wouldn't be that stupid to commit to an actual invasion. It soon turned out he was that stupid.
@user-hi6tb6fv6g Рік тому
Great recap!!!
@user-uc1jh2bo9x Рік тому
You are brainwashed. Congrats
@lizanderson1669 Рік тому
And what did the exiled KGB have to say about himself LMAO everyone out to make a buck for himself lol
@lucboulanger8128 Рік тому
@@lizanderson1669 Liz, Actually, Jirnov defected in 2001 and achieved post graduate studies at the French highly reputed ENA "Ecole Nationale d'administration". He earns his living as a journalist and consultant. He authored other books on the subject prior to his latest work.
@PedroFerreira-ze5yp Рік тому
A one year "3 day Special Superkalifragilistic Military Operation"
@vaestkusten6041 Рік тому
Lol.. when you believe your own lies and propaganda. Then reality kicks in and the 3 day special op turns into a nightmare.
@psychologianiestacjonarna6558 Рік тому
"Russia's democratic backsliding" ? Russia has never ever been democratic. That's the problem, the Russians don't even understand what the word "democracy" means. Russia has always been a feudal state, currently run by Putin's mafia
@wellesmorgado4797 Рік тому
the 1936 spanish civil war started as a military "proclamacion" (a coup, in general a fast thing that would be over in days, leading to the destitution of the government), but the reality had significantly changed since the end of the XIX century. In the end, Spain had to endure 3 years of a terrifying civil war, full of atrocities by both sides. Actually both sides miscalculated then.
@murraychadwick9362 Рік тому
When people actually believe their imagination is real life.
@ThomasSmith-rj4zt Рік тому
"Three days" was stated by US General Miley. How it became "Russians plan" I'll never know. As it stands, Russia seems completely intent just wiping Ukraine out. They appear to be planning to either take a bunch of land, or effectively destroy Ukraine. As funny as Russian troops dying is, what's not funny is the Ukrainian citizens spending night after night without power, power which the old and weak need to survive.
@scotthazelton519 11 місяців тому
Thanks for sharing
@falvegas511 8 місяців тому
Interesting presentation. Any information on Major Leaders esp. Waring Country Leaders provides us Input For Thought. Predicting a Russian Outcome is a mindless avenue to tread ... one cou;d go in any number of possible Events such as; a Coup,, Federation Breakup, a Kruschev-Like Retirement, Assassination, Exile, Nuclear War...............
@UncleTonyshotsauce Рік тому
I like when intelligent people do their research for others and history 🇺🇸👍
@user-oc1zq1ej5c Рік тому
His intelligence is full of excrement.
@anamokena-nicol4247 Рік тому
Intelligence is only measurable within the culture and peoples the test was formed for... An earth worm means nothing to someone in the USA who lives in an apartment in a concrete arena with plastic, robots and more concrete for company...
@nonye0 Рік тому
we are all intelligent.
@baltulielkungsgunarsmiezis9714 Рік тому
@@nonye0 Ones who watch this chanel for fun likely so.
@randomname5338 Рік тому
@@nonye0 where have you been for the past 3 years we are all very very very dumb , borderline psychotic
@jonmopjovi2734 Рік тому
The ultimate gut check for any leader is when the country looks likely to fall you stay to go down fighting. I still think more than anything else Zelenskys refusal to leave Kiev was a critical event in this war.
@FlukeTog 11 місяців тому
100% Legend
@sepnyte9422 11 місяців тому
Had he taken off, Ukraine would probably not have been standing for long. Him staying gave people faith in their own country.
@dishankb9213 10 місяців тому
This wasn't Afganistan that people had to run away. Only internal turmoil presidents tend to run.
@WoahJustTakeItEasyMan 10 місяців тому
Compare that to putin who didn't even stay in Moscow when he heard wagner was coming 😂
@sepnyte9422 10 місяців тому
@@WoahJustTakeItEasyMan Putin and his cronies ran faster than Usain Bolt. 🤣🤣🤣🤣
@testrabbit 10 місяців тому
I had a professor who worked on the Russian "space shuttle" program. Very nice guy, but I thought he was kidding when he said they turned it into a tourist attraction and restaurant complex so he came to the USA to teach mathematics. Subsequently to my interrogative as to whether he was joking he decided to bring in a VHS tape of when the conversion happened to show the students something about history that definitely falls outside the purview of teaching mathematics.
@tonyluckens50 7 місяців тому
The UK was the first country to supply Ukraine with anti tank weapons BEFORE the invasion. This was a major factor in the Ukrainians managing to stop the Russian tank regiments moving down the main highway to Kiev. It is a fact that Ukraine would now be in Russian hands whilst America and, particularly Europe, we’re still mulling it over. That said, all have now stepped up to the plate, especially America, whose response has, and continues to be, magnificent.
@howardleach5340 Рік тому
William Spaniel. What a journey through pure intelligence and thought!
@MakeAllThingsBeautiful Рік тому
yes i agree totally. I would recommend checking out the Jehovah's Witnesses understanding of the 'King of the North', Totalitarian, militaristic and diametrically opposed to the 'King of the South', Liberalism. There is a whole chapter in the bible Daniel ch 11 about this opposed 'kings'. Where they started out and into the 'last days' ... see Daniel ch 12 v 1 to 4. The best book on this topic is probably 'Pay Attention to Daniel's Prophecy' published in 1999. Though even more fascinating is a talk, on youtube from Sept 1942 'Peace Can it Last?' ... it's a bit crackly but profound ... even mentions the United Nations as becoming a key player. Politics, particularly like Putin's Russia its allies are sinister but combine this with western politics which is just that .. politics .. unreliable, untrustworthy, sometimes strong, but like the last year very slow to act ... this latter bit is maybe something Putin got right, the slow support for Ukraine, particularly France/Germany who could of maybe been more effective.
@chrischrisdaman Рік тому
@@MakeAllThingsBeautiful it’s a weird, thick skulled, wait a minute ITS A JEHOVAH’S WITNESS what are you doing down here, in the realm of the military enthusiasts. Just pick a real denomination mate. I can’t concentrate on what you’re saying if you keep- pick one PICK ONE. You’re a funny little thing.
@MakeAllThingsBeautiful Рік тому
@@chrischrisdaman the bible is really about the planet earth and particularly what the future holds. I think the JW's make sense of Daniel chapter 11, specifically at this moment the 'king of the north' and obviously the 'king of the south' as each is required to help identify the other. For the last 120 years the 'north' has been militaristic and to initiate, engage and keep people onside it defaults or already is totalitarian. The 'king of the south' is also at this moment in time the seventh world power, Anglo American alliance and there allies. The ultimate winner will be the United Nations as the political solution to the earth's woes. Could go into all the scriptures if you wish. As it happens the bible is as good a source of reliable military history as any.
@florobanag706 Рік тому
Im from the Philippines and i like it very much how clear you presented every topic you discussed . More power to you Mr Spaniel ... Always waiting for your upload ...
@iwantyourcookiesnow Рік тому
I hoped Pacquiao was going to be PI president.
@scabthecat Рік тому
Obama will be remembered as a geopolitical titan for the ages. But more importantly, he's black. The first black president. Not the second, the first. Not an old white man. A black man. That's important. That he's black. Whatever happened to MLK and the content of character?
@augustuslunasol10thapostle Рік тому
@@iwantyourcookiesnow so you wanted a idiot as my countries president
@allanhugo9213 3 місяці тому
Good reporting.
@Subhumanoid_ 7 місяців тому
15:25 Hahahahaha! _"opportunism from the Baltic states" or "Finland"_ brilliant analysis!
@yoshimeier3060 Рік тому
I think age and illness increase the willingness to take risks substantially. If you have a dude that convinced himself to be the chose one and that has been unopposed for years and that guy is suddenly or creepinly confronted with his mortality... he might just decided its time to cement his legacy now rather than later.
@oscareriksen2240 Рік тому
What surprises me is that nobody speculates about drugs. The trembling could easily be related to drug abuse. Pills or whatever.
@thiloreichelt4199 Рік тому
That is the far more important point about his speculative illness. Putin does see himself as a big player, who can shape the world. Knowing his time remaining is limited would be likely to push him into action. Drug abuse is unlikely. If anything, he might get pills from his personal MD, but I doubt even that. Putin noted Yeltsin being regularly drunk, and hated him for that. And he is well aware of the amount of alcohol abuse common in Russia.
@Elkarlo77 Рік тому
@@thiloreichelt4199 Some Drugs to fight Parkinson or Cancer will lend to overconfidence. So he might be on a "normal" level for his illness or to keep it under control but it will lead to misjudgements and overconfidence. About the Cancer Theorie: Putin's Poo is for a while a state secret. Before he used normal toilets since a while his excrements when he is visiting other Countries is flown back to Russia. Now he got his own portable Toilett with a special Bodyguard for it, and everything goes back. Not unusual for Paranoid Dictators, Kim Jong-Un does the same.
@peterkobor5470 Рік тому
I agree . Considering all of these facts there is a very likely chance he will use nuclear weapons if he is pushed into a corner . I am his age and after a good life I would have absolutely no problem pushing the red button .
@rv637 Рік тому
Exactly. Crazy Pootin has nothing to lose. He is old (and probably with some illness) and sitting at the comfort of his mansion. I really believe he doesn’t care about the average Russian.
@SERGIO-cr6uy Рік тому
If Steven Seagal is there, things can only go bad.
@NSUSashiel Рік тому
So that WAS him, I just paused the video and went "wut"
@winstonsmith313 Рік тому
@@NSUSashiel If Steven Segal is doing anything besides making movies where he is 😂😂”a formidable warrior”😂😂 things are actually going good - for us.
@dinojohn1 Рік тому
Segal and Trump. Losers love Losers.....
@applesyrupgaming Рік тому
@@winstonsmith313 segal is a rapist and a fat liar 😬
@Xpwnxage Рік тому
Segal is the one that convinced Putin to go through with the Ukrainian invasion.
@davidgillespie3406 7 місяців тому
I loved the video. Very informative. Definately keep them coming. Would love to see a few on the war in progress, with imbeded journalist or reporters (world wide reoorteds, like they did with the US during Desert Storm, a couple years back, haha. I was actuve duty AF, although I wanted to be, I wasnt in theater). These guys did a fantastic job of reporting while in active combat. Although the news itself wasnt seen live, it still gave a great way of putting you there. Im sure it wont hurt your ratings on YT.
@junaho7808 11 місяців тому
Can you make analysis video on the sustainment systems of the two country during war?
@TheMightymolar Рік тому
Excellent breakdown. Thank you. Two notable additions: 1) Putin had apartment buildings bombed in Moscow and blamed it on Chechen rebels. Going to war against Chechnya was one way he built his national support. It's not a conspiracy theory - the FSB was caught doing it and it was reported in Russia at the time. 2) In 2008 Russia invaded Georgia and the west did nothing.
@hoosthere Рік тому
Was he president in 2008
@fe7kh Рік тому
911. Pffft.
@TheMightymolar Рік тому
@@fe7kh great reply. I'm not sure if it's a rebuttal, but you did type things.
@theo3030 Рік тому
the invasion in georgia was limited and brief though. He stopped short of reaching the capital of georgia. Most people-including world leaders like Erdogan- thought that the invasion of ukraine was going to follow a similar pattern but were terribly wrong.
@fe7kh Рік тому
@@theo3030 weird. Did NATO feed Georgia w mercenaries and weapons? The answer is no. You know it. I know it. Why even compare?
@1Gsttl2007 Рік тому
I rarely commented, but I must say that I love the humor and witty words used, in addition to the excellent and insightful analysis! I feel like I was treated to a well prepared lecture. Thank you! Looking forward to the next piece!
@alexanderwu Рік тому
This is much more captivating than a lecture
@billybarnes1763 Рік тому
If only it was true.... Lets just leave out the American intervention since the 80s.
@andreimustata9829 Рік тому
@@billybarnes1763 Which part exactly doesn't seem true to you? What is your point? He did in fact mentioned the expansion of US influence in East Europe as one of the factors of Putin's aggression.
@jampasurprenant1794 10 місяців тому
Absolutely amazing video very interesting and Educational about the war all over the world.
@user-md2xp1bt5s 11 місяців тому
very good info thank you
@danlei88 Рік тому
In Finland there's a belief that the weird Putin walk is a result of permanent damage to his collar bone when he played football against a team of bishops in the finnish city of Turku. Apparently one of the holy men tackled him and damaged his collar bone/shoulder. That could explain the asymmetric walk at least for the arms but not the limp. Also need to note that this happened 30 years ago and I don't have the expertise to know if it's possible for it to still cause a chronic issue after decades.
@GeneralWinter9 Рік тому
Nobody cares about what you believe in finland
@danlei88 Рік тому
@@GeneralWinter9 I know it sucks that in Russia you're not able to freely talk about your political leader in any bad light but you don't have to take your jealousy out on me =)
@Brian-om2hh Рік тому
It's a well known fact that excessive bashing of your bishop can have lasting health repercussions.....
@tomriley5790 Рік тому
Certainly posilbe for things 30 years ago to cause chonic (lifelong problems) but impossible to know without more information if the story is the real cause.
@paddington1670 Рік тому
One of the skinniest graduating kids in my year got tackled by a large boy and folded his collarbones together. His shoulders basically touched in front of his chest. He couldnt go to school for the rest of the year, bed ridden. I dont know what happened to him, because we all moved on, i did hear he joined the Canadian Forces but that's hearsay at a random birthday party decades later that i heard that.
@JR-bj3uf Рік тому
I had a friend who, while at the airport, decided to have his shoes shined. The man shining shoes looked at him as he approached and said "Parkinson's right?" "No" my friend said "not that I know of." When he got back he went to the doctor and the tests confirmed that he had Parkinson's disease. It is sometimes possible to diagnose for visual clues. The shoe shine guy told my friend that his brother had Parkinson's and he knew what to look for.
@tomlxyz Рік тому
Question is how many wrong things that man said that didn't get much attention because of it
@johnbrown-rm8kc Рік тому
yes correct my mates father had Parkinsons and after that i always picked up on people with Tremors etc
@zelmo73 Рік тому
@@johnbrown-rm8kc alcoholics just coming off a binge have tremors too. I’d trust a doctor over a shoeshine boy any day.
@poohoff Рік тому
Nice bullshit story, but try harder next time
@JR-bj3uf Рік тому
For clarification: It was the way he walked. The shoe shine guy turned on his stool and watched my friend walk toward him. It was not tremors but the shuffling gate with which he was walking that triggered the response.
@evanb4189 2 місяці тому
26:17 Thar should be "Ice fishers in Siberia". Serbia is a different country near Greece.
@republicafederalcentroamer5368 11 місяців тому
What a great video!
@rhea7756 Рік тому
Something being underestimated is the Zelensky effect. Putin tried to leverage divisions in Ukr. Zelensky was the first prez acceptable to both East and West Ukraine. He was in fact more popular in Russ speaking E. Ukr. On top of that Zelensky was the most popular Ukrainian leader. Even though his ratings went down, it was the highest for any Ukr prez. His ratings went down before the war mainly because people were unsure of his capabilities as a wartime prez. He is a strong man with his party securing the majority in Ukr parliament too. In reality, Zelensky ratings was high enough to win another prez term. So under Zelensky, the period of political chaos in Ukr could be over. A strong and democratic Ukr was Putin's fear. So he invaded Ukr
@davidford3115 Рік тому
Well, and his famous meme "I don't need a ride, I need ammunition" solidified Ukrainian resolve. I have no doubt that had he fled, Kiev would have fallen that very night.
@tinawilson4120 Рік тому
Russian people you have to get Putin's out-of-office
@Godsplan4ever Рік тому
Zelensky was pushed in by the coup plot organized by the American government in 2014, in which the elected Ukrainian presidente was ousted forcefully. If not so,why did the government of zelensky begin to kill the Donbas people of Eastern Ukraine, if they truly voted zelensky into power and did not oppose the coup plot by refusing to support him? That began the blood shed and civil war that are still going on till today?
@PedroFerreira-ze5yp Рік тому
@@tinawilson4120 I´ll second that! Putin has made ruZZia a fascit country and a threat to the whole world, including themselves!
@joeka8772 Рік тому
🥱😱
@AndriiF Рік тому
Haha! You can find this women in almost all Putin's foto with group of "simple people". None casual person can come close to him for years! I personally saw her on not less than 5 fotos😁. Thanks for your work and greetings from fighting Ukraine 🇺🇦
@Tespri Рік тому
Only Ruzzian propagandists are so incompetent that they would use same actors in their photos.
@danielduesentriebjunior 7 місяців тому
Very good analysis! Every population has the government that it deserves. It's in the Russians hands to stop acting like cowards and to change it.
@thomasdaniel3307 9 місяців тому
Iistened to all of this ! Hooray !
@bixbysnyder-00 Рік тому
"338 days into my 3 day war, I am still master strategist" -Vladimir Putin
@rykson161 Рік тому
Why does America and nato back African nations as they back Ukraine?
@Lewd-Tenant_Isan Рік тому
@@rykson161 because African nations aren't in Europe duh
@AWMJoeyjoejoe Рік тому
@@rykson161 the clue is in the name. North Atlantic Treaty Organisation. Not sure how long it's been since you looked at a map but Africa isn't anywhere near the North Atlantic.
@sergeyshunin548 Рік тому
Don't forget, the Russian army was already in Gostomel, near Kiev, 2-3 hours after the start of the conflict. The narrative about 3 days is the narrative of US propaganda. No one has declared about 3 days.
@bixbysnyder-00 Рік тому
@@sergeyshunin548 That's right, you proved my point. The Russians were near Kiev in 2 to 3 hours, and they got obliterated. Putin tried to decapitate the Ukrainian government but failed miserably.
@davidshanahan5134 Рік тому
Loving your channel William! Do a collaboration with Perun - both masters of analysis and clear presentation.
@gaoxiaen1 Рік тому
I was thinking the same thing. Perun can mesmerize with a Powerpoint and a little humor.
@Homer-OJ-Simpson Рік тому
William got in depth look at all things Ukraine - Russia, Perun for 1hr deep look at geopolitical matters around the world.
@haruruben 11 місяців тому
32:00 omg that table, so bizarre
@escapefelicity2913 10 місяців тому
very well done
@OffGridUrbanist Рік тому
Seeing Putin standing uncomfortably in a cake bakery made my day…. There is too much happiness and sweetness in this place…
@itheuserfirst3186 Рік тому
"Why are these people smiling? We are Russians. NATO is already over our border!"
@arupmallick3923 Рік тому
Ukraine relied on US and Western countries in the hope of building military strength... But now it has become like a dying patient on life support.... Accept the reality before mocking Someone....
@chrischrisdaman Рік тому
@@arupmallick3923 better than the country who hadn’t learned from the Germans who they “single handedly defeated” (when in reality their logistics were shite, a problem they still gave today) The Russian military was long thought an absolute juggernaut with top of the line equipment. I guess it would be top if the line If it actually worked worked correctly
@naakatube 3 місяці тому
This is so true!
@xavierviaene5022 9 місяців тому
Hitler was totally drugged by his personal medical doctor and when he refused to no longer take this medication he started trembling like a willow. Putin drew all power towards himself and could not accept any opposition like a real autocrath which resulted in large corruption in his system and mainly military. The stress and worries that all of his goals may fall into the water puts an enormous stress on an individual which even he can not bear for a long time. But as he pulls all strings , like Hitler he has the largest responsability for this disaster and when he's done, all the cards will fall apart ... those who stood by him ... will try to abandon this sinking ship to save their skins too ... or even worse sharpen their knives already like in Ancient Rome ...
@jeroylenkins1745 Рік тому
8:00 I think one thing that is being overlooked here is the military response by NATO to the annexation of Crimea. NATO troops were deployed to Ukraine in massive numbers in a training and mentoring role post-2014. This 8 year training support and professionalization of the Ukrrainian forces had a lot to do with how well they did in the initial stages of the invasion.
@taleon3986 Рік тому
You are not supposed to say any truth on this channel. You have to keep in line with the Western media narrative - Russia is bad, the West and NATO are good, moral and humane.
@abc-mr7we Рік тому
Angela Merkel admitted a few weeks ago that the 8 years was indeed used in preparing Ukraine.
@whitegoose2017 Рік тому
There are no NATO troops in Ukraine. There never have been. Instructors? Absolutely. If the Russian army faced NATO in Ukraine they wouldn't have gotten 20 kilometers past the border. That's just the raw truth of it. Airspace would be 100% controlled by NATO and not a single thing would fly that wasn't fired or sent by NATO. And we know Russians don't have enough of those fancy long-range missiles as they're now firing Iranian ones.
@abc-mr7we Рік тому
@@whitegoose2017 Nato DEFINITELY has troops in Ukraine. "Instructors" = special forces. That's the first thing that happens in any modern conflict.
@whitegoose2017 Рік тому
@@abc-mr7we Ukraine wanted to get rid of its systematic corruption problems in the military that are still prevalent in Russia as both are successor states to the former USSR. Ukrainians knew exactly where to get help how to do that. That's very much different from having a troop presence. Right now there are volunteers from everywhere in Ukraine. These volunteers also come armed with military expertise a most of the times. Oh and special forces? It sounds really silly to say that considering special forces are quite simply "elite" light infantry. Many Westerners are getting flashback vibes to WW2. It wasn't that long-ago that people have forgotten. Russians obviously never learned the history of the past century, ergo they can't see the parallel between Sudetenland/Austria/et cetera and eastern Ukraine. Me, I can't see this war ending even this year. Europeans are willing to superficially bleed over this by sending old munitions and equipment, but really, what we should have done in Europe is go in there and just completely destroy the Russians and say there's no war going on. We are simply destroying terrorists. That's just how retarded this whole affair is. We're waging a war while we're not waging a war. To quote HBO series "Chernobyl" or Valery Legasov, I don't know if he said it or not, "what is the cost of lies?" Russian and Ukrainian lives. Yeah. I feel like ranting about this. Sorry about this. Even here we've got Ukrainian refugees. I'll probably see them at the bar on friday. I will ask you something though. Imagine living a life where you've got everything. You've got the ultimate power in everything. Power to destroy the world, power to take away everything from your associates, power to acquire anything you want and power to disappear people. how does that not CORRUPT a person?
@aiyadwolf Рік тому
This is definitely my favorite from you! Thank you for putting it all together, excellent!
@njohnson6589 11 місяців тому
Artur hello my friend.. Excellent channel great stuff. no bullshit & funny accurate reports. 10/10 pal.👍👍good man.👌Best wishes from U.K Slava Ukraine to all the hero's.. Artur I have a question 4 u my good man.. Could polish men pass themselves off as Ukraine men language wise? Or do you sound v different? & is conversation easy? (ie) can u both understand each other? Just wondering..😉 I personally can't think of any "better" battle buddies than our Polish cousins (Apart from us of course).. SLAVA UKRAINE 🇺🇦 Keep it up Artur 👌👍👍👍
@lakewoodln1060 10 місяців тому
Love how you say "materielle" 😂
@physicsunderstander4958 9 місяців тому
He's talking about "materiel," not just mispronouncing the more common word "material." "Materiel" is a different word that specifically refers to military supplies and equipment.
@ltfreeborn Рік тому
I think the "It hurt itself in its confusion" fits here.
@kinbeatss Рік тому
what a comment
@Lanwarder Рік тому
Numerous world leaders have mentioned that Putin hasn't been the same since Covid-19. He apparently spent most his time isolated and did a lot of reading of books depicting a very embellished version of Russian history. I don't know to what extent it is true, but I definitely heard multiple world leader say that Putin just wasn't the same, and that even though he never was especially easy to deal with, he now seemed more.....let's say "disconnected from reality",
@adolfshitler Рік тому
Guaranteed he's been planning this for at least 10 years, probably more!
@TheDennys21 Рік тому
@@adolfshitler absolutely!
@Lanwarder Рік тому
@@adolfshitler Probably, but I think that isolation might have contributed to miscalculate how Ukrainians, and Ukraine's allies to react. The war is far from over, but I think that Putin being isolated, and only receiving the answers he wants to receive from his advisers probably made him overly confident that his plan would work.
@adolfshitler Рік тому
@@Lanwarder No doubts of that
@schakiarligonde1736 Рік тому
He was always like that imo it just became more noticeable after the pandemic happened
@BY-pn2ry 9 місяців тому
That is worth sharing
@MrFriesz 7 місяців тому
Putin walked happily and stupidly into a trap.
@SilverfoxJB Рік тому
Excellent work. I totally did not expect to watch more than a few minutes. It was better than any TV documentary on the subject.
@Itried20takennames Рік тому
Agree, a great discussion and analysis, and answered a number of things I wondered about - how could Putin think the invasion was a good idea? Did he believe his own propaganda on the state of Russias military, or did he know it was that bad, but thought still enough?
@yespls4184 Рік тому
@@Itried20takennames I think he really thought that he could get away with it and drank his own "Kool-Aid", so to speak. Throughout history Russia has successfully conquered regions *and* defended its borders by having the sheer numbers and resolve, despite at times having quite under-equipped and under-trained forces in the face of occupying forces. I don't think he believed that he had forces that could take on the West, but that he had the numbers and resources at least to crush the resolve of Kyiv and cause Ukrainian citizens to concede. Perhaps he did have the US invasion of Iraq in mind; he thought that Ukrainian soldiers wouldn't have confidence in their own government, but unlike in Iraq-- where a major portion of Iraqis disliked the idea of an occupier from a land extremely far away in both distance and culture telling them how to live-- Ukrainians might believe that at least Russians had many cultural similarities and would treat them kinder than, say, the Nazis treated them during WW2. It seems that he definitely had a major personal disdain for Zelensky and didn't view him as a serious person that citizens could place their confidence in. I think he miscalculated Zelensky and he *really* miscalculated how much Ukraine had formed a new national identity since the Soviet Union that was quite separate from Russia and placed value on building democratic institutions and ties with other democratic countries.
@terencehurst8636 Рік тому
Anything is better than a TV documentary.
@118Shadow118 Рік тому
That woman you mentioned in the end (along with some other people) is seen in many of Putin's publicity photos
@Vilamus Рік тому
I want to joke that Putin is doing this to impress his women, who is this lass in the photos But...I am scared that in 30 years time, that was the real reason Putin invades Ukraine xD
@LeCharles07 Рік тому
"Straight out of central casting" Donald Trump
@SnabbKassa Рік тому
yes, they are actors, who are used repeatedly, because Putin is scared to be photographed with random people.
@boskobojkovic9383 11 місяців тому
As for the war in Ukraine, the Russians could have chosen the option of declaring war or a special military operation option. Since the first variant is risky becayse it affects relations with Europe, the second option was chosen.
@Aki-ow9hd 10 місяців тому
As if the semantics mattered, because who wouldn't want to make themselves look good regardless of their actions.
@wolfshanze5980 3 місяці тому
Lol... yeah, okay... I see you fell for Putin's lie. "Special Military Operation"... Russia didn't invade super light, with a touch of forces... it was every bit a full blown military invasion, just with a light poofy name attached. That's like Nazi Germany invading Poland in 1939 and calling it "a minor border skirmish", but changing nothing else... don't fall for fancy words, just look at reality.
@ulfosterberg9116 5 місяців тому
How lavrow can keep on the inside of windows is amazing....
@CipiRipi-in7df 5 місяців тому
Maybe he's to fat to fit in a normal window. They have to find a window large enough first, the lure Lavrov there. :P
@caylynmillard76 Рік тому
Please. I mean PLEASE make more of these videos asap. I wait for weeks for your content because I love the depth and insight you have. I check UKposts almost everyday! Thanks for the great content
@ThunderAppeal Рік тому
I'm sure you would have been thrilled if adolf shitler was still alive, I know you would be waiting eagerly for germanys war reports regularly.
@nzs316 Рік тому
Just tap the bell icon and you will get an alert the moment there is new material.
@alexanderwu Рік тому
Nah I don't want him to burn out
@caylynmillard76 Рік тому
@@ThunderAppeal good one…😅
@caylynmillard76 Рік тому
@@alexanderwu clever 😅
@jakeaurod Рік тому
Several people have pointed out that the same people show up in different outfits in lots of Putin's PR photos.
@philliprobinson7724 Рік тому
Hi. They're actors, he has his very own fan-club. Cheers, P.R.
@danielecorbari7033 10 місяців тому
22:40 "systemic rot" and Prigozhin appears. 5 months later he is defenestrated
@beerandrockets7526 11 місяців тому
Buddy, I've always loved lines on maps.
@StefanHoffmann84 Рік тому
23:40 Haha. I mean, it is not comparable, but somehow reminds me that our military in Germany constantly gets media attention about something that is not working. Good to have these checks.
@NorNamor Рік тому
Those checks are very real!! We had the same shit in Norway where one manufacturer of missiles were chosen over another because they sponsored a really expensive luxurious ski trip to the alps on the whole general staff. The media cought it and it became a major laughing stock in the media and the contract got annulled.
@jur4x Рік тому
In Russian speaking environment they managed to create a perception of blogers not being real journalists. Basically if someone posted anything wrong about the country, most people would simply dismiss them as crying for attention or outright Western agents spreading propaganda. The irony is, most of those independent analysts were way more aware of real state of things than official media. Best example - pension reform was predicted almost 10 years before it happened.
@georgehewitt1917 Рік тому
r suzuki.jimmy.jipl
@georgehewitt1917 Рік тому
Georg3e
@ArcturusOTE Рік тому
Ah eys, the G36 controversy
@AC3handle Рік тому
Being a general under Putin is like being an officer under Darth Vader. Instead of getting force choked, they get forced window walking.
@mezjean5966 Місяць тому
About the Putin holding the table thing, he has always grabbed chairs and stuff like that because of his apparently back pains.
@peteramarillo8952 7 місяців тому
This is the most brilliant insight into what happened in the Ukraine -russian war. brilliant. Who is this guy?
@jefftheriault5522 Рік тому
Yes, she is likely a member of his protection detail, and perhaps the most competent of the lot. She would be ideal for initial screening duties, in addition to roles where she plays the part of a member of the general public in "reaching out to the Russian in the street" scenarios.
@pclifton4 Рік тому
I really need to remember to use youtube's 'watch later' button more, stuff like this is so well done and interesting that what I know I should be doing becomes an afterthought
@AnnabelleBeaudoin 9 днів тому
Great videos ❤
@JR-gp2zk 4 місяці тому
3:01 here is some "Where's Waldo". What US movie star is in the ceremony.
@stereomaster4231 Рік тому
PooTin built this persona that can't quit the Ukraine invasion. It'll be interesting to see how this all ends for him.
@garynew9637 Рік тому
Let's see how it ends for nato/usa
@stereomaster4231 Рік тому
One delusional old man vs 500 million humans. You must really love old sick KGB agent?
@alexxie6963 Рік тому
@@garynew9637 prosperously
@zephyrast3036 Рік тому
Zooming in on the pencils next to Putin was great haha
@josephraun9068 10 місяців тому
This is important news!
@artynomenus Рік тому
1:45 Putin has never been a real intelligence officer but just a mind-control policeman-type clerk, served as a middleman between KGB and Stasi in DDR
@justinpaul3110 Рік тому
Excellent video, as always. One detail that seems to be forgotten about that I do recall from last year: I know there was skepticism about a Russian invasion of Ukraine because the force accumulation was considered insufficient for a successful invasion and the placement of troops and materials was strategically poor. I recall some thought it was a bluff. Also, I do think there's something wrong with Putin. If you compared a picture of him just two years ago (as opposed to 8, like you did) the aging is far more obvious.
@Emanon... Рік тому
I was one of those people. I didn't believe that they had the force to push through and that the exercises was a political ploy. In my mind: If Putin actually wanted to subjugate Ukraine, why did he give them 8 years since 2014 to train and re-arm their forces? It just didn't add up at the time...
@JULIAN11. Рік тому
It was insufficient, if you were based in reality it was insufficient, it should have been at least 3 times higher (Around ~700k), and even then success wasn't completely guarantied But if you are based on a fantasy, a fantasy that said that the US and Europe won't help Ukraine, that the Ukrainian army is just a bit better than it was in 2014, that the Ukrainian people were mostly going to receive the Russians as liberators, that you army is modern and very well trained then ~200k troops were sufficient If Russia wasn't such a big corrupt mess, where people give far better numbers than what they actually are to their superiors so they don't get punished, and then that superior makes those number better before handing them out to his superior and then his superior... you get what I mean, If it wasn't like that plus the widespread corruption then this war wouldn't had happend because anyone that looks at the actual correct numbers would know that a successful invasion would be almost imposible
@magr7424 Рік тому
Fantastic analysis! I would like to add a personal experience of mine that convinced me on February 25th, that Ukraine will fight no matter what to defend their country I live in Heidelberg, Germany. 10 km away is Mannheim, there is a big railway hub connection between all trains coming from France and southwest Europe linking to railway that leads to Berlin and then to eastern Europe, Poland and Ukraine. On the morning of February 25th I was at the big Mannheim railway station to drive back to Heidelberg. I realized there were much more people as usual, I sensed kind of a unrest, tension in the air, so I went back into the station and saw many young men with backpacks. I asked some guys what is going on and they told me they wait to trains to Berlin and Poland. I went with them to the tracks and trains from France arrived packed with young men, holding out ukrainian flags, French flags, german flags and the men on the tracks were cheering and step into the trains. Many of them were ukrainians living in Germany France Spain Portugal... And Many of them were Germans, French volunteers who wanted to help. I gave the guys around me all the money I had in my pocket and wished them good luck and that they stay save, I was very emotional, they were driving to a war! in Europe! against a gigantic and brutal Russian army and I don't know if they are still alive.. I realized at that moment that Pootin has miscalculated, that this war will not be over in 3 days and they really managed to stop them, driving them away from Kiew and holding the line against these ruthless Russians.. I hope that bloody stupid war will be over soon and those responsible for it will pay for their crimes
@GraemeMurphy Рік тому
Well said. Watch what happens later this month.
@rphb5870 Рік тому
So did the Germans in world war two. At some point it is better to negotiate with a superior force then it is to be forced into an unconditional surrender
@kevinmccarthy8746 11 місяців тому
I would stake my life on the booze being the greatest problem. Imagine almost every dad a drunk and, what that is like to the family and go from there.
@maddslothii2532 11 місяців тому
1:26 the Soviet Space Shuttle Buran on a cake? That is kind of strange.
@cytrynowy_melon6604 Рік тому
KGB has actually not disintegrated. It's changed its name, but actually the only Soviet structure that has not deteriorated severely. That's why they gained even more power in the 90s.
@davexb6595 Рік тому
This might be another reason they failed.
@cpMetis Рік тому
1:30 These pictures are absolutely perfect. With the commentary, it feels like a sketch you'd see on LWT or something with edited cut-ins.
@Gametheory101 Рік тому
I was very pleased when I found those!
@xray3336 11 місяців тому
A good summay. 👍
@senaniwet 9 днів тому
Thanks
@Gametheory101 9 днів тому
Thank you!
@bolobalaman Рік тому
Nothing quite like a 3 Day plus almost a year Operation The planning to the preparation and the execution was true to its name : *SPECIAL*
@hamzamahmood9565 Рік тому
Special extended operation
@ghostinanutshell4768 Рік тому
Special needs operation
@suyashneelambugg Рік тому
Can you share a source where Russia had declared it to be a 3 day operation? We all know Russia expected Ukraine to stand down, and then Ukraine has just declared the peace deal in Turkey was aimed at buying time! During that period as well, the soldiers were not advancing. So the miscalculation is rather a case of wrong expectations from Ukraine and peace deal. And lo and behold, Ukraine is falling piece by piece since Russia has realised this won't end with warnings and light combat!
@bolobalaman Рік тому
@@suyashneelambugg Ok comrade falling pieces by pieces ?Is this coming from the same source that proudly claimed it captured 4 regions as some sort of saving face victory after the fuck ups that is called *capturing Kiev in a blitzkrieg manner* ?? To clarify: It was found in memo, journal from dead Russian during Feb and March at Hostomel and other region around Kiev during the most heated part of the battle for the capital. They even found parade outfit among Russian’s equipment and corpses
@notusneo Рік тому
@@suyashneelambugg if i have a dollar every time an Indian try to defend Rusia atrocious decision i would be a wealthy man right now
@zarroaster3009 Рік тому
Thank you for your work. I admire your objectivism and tenacity.
@eudaenomic 3 місяці тому
Thanks!
@Gametheory101 3 місяці тому
Thank you!
@fransschram 8 місяців тому
Informative
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